Topic: Covid Theater: (Read 360 times)

"Ignore." An easy way to bypass things you can't logically answer.

Yawn. I had to challenge you to actually produce the work and calculations that showed you to have any ability beyond your sixth grade babble with Badecker, which of course I had on Ignore because it does not pass a rudimentary Turing test.

Your problem, not mine. When you ducked and dodged, I brought the actual R models in. By the way, you are certainly still welcome to produce those which validate your various rants and ravings.

but.. my point was it doesnt matter if they were doing 50k tests a day or 200k tests a day, if there were only a few hundred people with it.. then there will still be only a few hundred people with it

A lot of people would look at what you just said, and see the good in it, not the FUD that is all that you are projecting. A few hundred out of 100k, and somehow you have that twisted around to be bad, not good.

Oh, and by the way, I have to laugh at you as well as some others, that try to weasel anti-Trump propaganda into what should be a scientific discussion. But then, you can't resist, right?

and world wide studies show that "prospective" but its funny how you try using a small situation of just a few days in orlando florida to try to pump your myth that the rest of the world must be lying. all because you didnt research the details of what actually happened in florida

remember your own words you thought that the positive cases would get altered due to the orlando situation. not realising it never affected the positive cases and wont cause a r0 to go under 1.0X like you thought it would

i used to enjoy sparring with you because you used to atleast put some effort into research. but lately you have been doing the same silly things badecker does.

at first i thought are you just being a temporary troll triggered because i called you out on your patriotic devotion to trump and not wanting him to be branded as the same social circle as epstein.. but it seemed you went to far into badecker style of trolling, that maybe its something deeper than the patriotic call out.

but in the end.
what matters in this whole topic is that the pandemic is not over. its still the calm before the storm and already some places are seeing new waves getting higher and higher again.
its not over, heck with not even 5-10% herd immunity thus far its not even midgame.

It does indeed matter, because it's very useful to know that only a few hundred catch it and test position, out of a hundred thousand in the same time period that do get tested.

As opposed to only getting the test if you show symptoms, which would create a far different perspective.

exactly
like your trying to structure sets of data such as pretending the negative tests mean something they dont.


as for says who.. well in the UK many people are taking the tests without symptoms.
theres been days where there were most days over hundred thousand tests taken daily but only a few hundred positive or few thousand positive

the actual public health authority have said for people to get the test
1. if they have symptoms
2. if they have been in close proximity to someone who has had it
3. if they have a doctors appointment for any reason to avoid spreading it to non covid departments

many people have been using clause 2. by saying they have been near someone

so it aint me saying it. its pretty much common knowledge in UK cases and why they are doing 1-200k tests a day but only getting a few hundred positive results

but.. my point was it doesnt matter if they were doing 50k tests a day or 200k tests a day, if there were only a few hundred people with it.. then there will still be only a few hundred people with it

which is the same common sense thing no matter the country/state

So what caused you to decided that regular history is correct? That we really did land six spaceships on the Moon, each with two American astronauts?

We can't say how long his pandemic virus will stay in our world, so basically we cant say also when do we need to stop wearing a mask and keep the social distancing, there is no problem on wearing facemask because even though there is no pandemic there are many people who are wearing it to avoid some disease and pollution during travel. Still hoping that this situation will be fine as soon as possible.

Yabut. The joker in the article must have proof, or he wouldn't have written the article, right?

 

Next you'll be claiming the US didn't actually send men to the Moon in the Apollo program.

Oh, wait, you did used to claim that...

Many of us have known for a long time that the numbers have been skewed... and lied about by the media.


CDC #'s Show NO Statistically Significant Increase in Overall U.S. Death #'s

Says who? You?

The goal of the test is to provide information to the one taking the test. The goal of the test is not to structure data sets to your liking.

You almost make it sound like doctors know what they are doing. But since there are multitudes of people who die under their care, is this something you really want to be talking like?

the cases graph is ACTAULLY / not _

by the way the "error" is not thats there are more or less positive cases. its just that they didnt include the negative cases to show the ratio of positive to negative

yet graphs of positive cases have only shown positive cases and dont include the negative cases. so it wouldnt have any impact

there is already too many people just asking for a test even without having symptoms. so the negative test numbers become a meaningless statistic that explains nothing.

if there were only ~10k cases a day. and labs can do 20millions tests a day. it will still show only ~10k positive tests.
negative tests are irrelevant. no matter how many they can do or not report about the ones not positive. it doesnt affect the positive tests

FL is at 1.03

https://rt.live/us/FL

...But I suggest waiting a week or two on FL, there have been massive errors reported from there, over reporting covid and deaths.

It may actually be <1.0

numbers in FL.. you said its 1.06.. but reality is 1.3 average
it managed a 1.07 for the last half of May but by june 3rd numbers were above 1.1

heck even just looking at a graph you can see that the upward angle is not a low 1.0X amount


calculating R₀ is easy
pick a day and get the case numbers.
then find the case numbers for 7 days before it

then do: 1/days case*last weeks day case
because nature is not organised. its best to try it over a few days to get a better picture

EG one day(using its 7th day previous) might be 1.25 the next day(using its 7th day previous) might be 1.35

but one thing is for sure even without the math(just visual chart) or with the math. it hasnt been a 1.0X day or averaged week since may

its kinda simple .. if there was 3400 cases 4 weeks ago
then 1.06 repeated 4 times would be about 4300 average case number
yet its more like over 11k case numbers. so definetly over 1.06x

..
a few things to note though
the r₀ in march-april was high(3-9 range) but that was with mostly symptomatic people.
the r₀ seems high at 1.3. but thats because testing centres are now also testing asymptomic people which means the numbers are not really showing how much is actually transmitting via the virus actually bursting out of peoples lungs and being exhaled. vs the asymptomatics that are not transmitting it.

its why you have to factor in all these things and also how much hospitalisation there is to get a better view
they are trying to introduce Re which accounts/excludes for the asymptomatics because of this. which would be different from r₀ and lower

Social distancing... So simple a rule but the most difficult to keep. You can never tell how long so far as we still have this pandemic coursing a lot of menace in our mist.
As much as we are tired of loosing some amount of comfort, we most also know that comfort comes with a price and not all prices are good.
Let's do the things we can do today to avoid critics later.
Stay safe.

And they also undershoot. Predictions of epidemics are notoriously bad. Hence my providing direct links to R statistical models.

But it does look like you'd have to have some huge secondary thing to get to 50M,doesn't it?

Destruction of the economy will kill 20 times more than Covid could ever think of killing.

These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services.  Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'inoculated' population.  Hence, my 50M+ dead count by Nov 2021.

People don't realize how vulnerable our societies are.  It is the domino effect that will bring us to 50M+, The Walking Dead scenario.

I must admit that it is probably unlikely even for hardcore, no-mask 'freedom fighters' from your local trailer park, even they will succumb to the realization that something needs to be done to stop the spread when their loved ones start dying.

But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed.

Okay, let's use that one.

It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected.

Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.

Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.

Are you still believing 50-100M?

Nice FUD to scare the masses and start another wave of raids on stores by hungry TP pirates.
Since when does covid permanently damage internal organs of people who contract it? Most people react to it like they would to a common cold and even pneumonia doesn't do permanent damage unless you ignore it. But most ignored infections can cause death, even something as simple as tonsillitis.
50% deaths from covid is as big of an extrapolation as a million dollar Bitcoin.

There is not much to disagree.  Maybe the future rates. There is plenty of irrational behaviour going on in the US.  I guess more than the 'global' average. That is what is surprising.

Back in March I did similar extrapolation based on Italy's numbers and people propably thought I have lost my mind, but the numbers were
more or less correct.


Not sure why the handling of this pandemic has been made into a political issue.  Too close to the election? Maybe Trump cannot admit the mistake he has made at the beginning by not mandating masks from the get go, and has cornered himself now in hopes this thing will go away by itself.

Well, it will, just like all wild fires do.

Here are some covid idiots for you (the Canadian Edition):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TInQ0CpSY6A

People do not understand how big oxygen, carbon dioxide, nucleotides, proteins, RNA molecules or corona viruses are.  

When cornered they become agressive or don't want to talk about it.  All suffer from cognitive dissonance.

Guess what BADeckers guys, condoms are also not 100% effective, just like the N95 masks.  Yet people use them all the time.

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

i told you and showed you months ago.
i know you want to advertise that andrew kaufman. but the funny thing is that you keep advertising just him as your source that koch/rivers has not been followed

but to save you tripping over yourself yet again. although i know you will just change direction and avoid realising the hole you made for yourself

back in january US labs were saying they identified the virus and such but didnt finalise it by not then purposefully infecting healthy subjects. and it was this article that your outdated conspiracy nuts latched onto and for the last 5 months have been repeating scripts of
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7077245/#sec5-viruses-12-00135title
note. this in JANUARY

but then there are labs from february onwards that were doing the final stage. ill show you 2. and let you learn about a thing called google if you actually care to learn about more(its not difficult)
mouse-UK-february
https://www.immunology.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/literature-digest-old/the-pathogenicity-of-sars-cov-2-in-hace2-transgenic-mice
hamster -hongkong -march
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa325/5811871

if you can just stop circling scripts from january and realise that its july and your scripts have been debunked. then maybe you can spend that time on something new thats not been said before

Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?

You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.

I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this:

https://rt.live/

Anybody can right science fiction reports. Can you show and explain how those reports followed Rivers' update of Koch's Postulates? Can you show and explain which one of them even shows the Covid virus being properly discovered according to Rivers processes?

Come on! You are so good, right? You can badmouth me all day long, and it doesn't make any difference one way or another, because I am not in the medical. Do it to put Kaufman down. He would enjoy somebody correcting any mistakes he has. He might even enjoy showing you where you are wrong.

I showed you Kaufman and his explanation. You showed a bunch of NIH reports that you couldn't even explain.

Get with it, man. We enjoy your blabbing.

If nothing is done, by November we will get

July 17, 2020    3,763,977.00       0.04
July 18, 2020    3,914,536.08       0.04
July 19, 2020    4,071,117.52       0.04
July 20, 2020    4,233,962.22       0.04
July 21, 2020    4,403,320.71       0.04
July 22, 2020    4,579,453.54       0.04
July 23, 2020    4,762,631.68       0.04
July 24, 2020    4,953,136.95       0.04
July 25, 2020    5,151,262.43       0.04
July 26, 2020    5,357,312.93       0.04
July 27, 2020    5,571,605.44       0.04
July 28, 2020    5,794,469.66       0.04
July 29, 2020    6,026,248.45       0.04
July 30, 2020    6,267,298.38       0.04
July 31, 2020    6,517,990.32       0.04
August 1, 2020    6,778,709.93       0.04
August 2, 2020    7,049,858.33       0.04
August 3, 2020    7,331,852.66       0.04
August 4, 2020    7,625,126.77       0.04
August 5, 2020    7,930,131.84       0.04
August 6, 2020    8,247,337.11       0.04
August 7, 2020    8,577,230.60       0.04
August 8, 2020    8,920,319.82       0.04
August 9, 2020    9,277,132.62       0.04
August 10, 2020    9,648,217.92       0.04
August 11, 2020    10,034,146.64       0.04
August 12, 2020    10,435,512.50       0.04
August 13, 2020    10,852,933.00       0.04
August 14, 2020    11,287,050.32       0.04
August 15, 2020    11,738,532.34       0.04
August 16, 2020    12,208,073.63       0.04
August 17, 2020    12,696,396.57       0.04
August 18, 2020    13,204,252.44       0.04
August 19, 2020    13,732,422.54       0.04
August 20, 2020    14,281,719.44       0.04
August 21, 2020    14,852,988.21       0.04
August 22, 2020    15,447,107.74       0.04
August 23, 2020    16,064,992.05       0.04
August 24, 2020    16,707,591.73       0.04
August 25, 2020    17,375,895.40       0.04
August 26, 2020    18,070,931.22       0.04
August 27, 2020    18,793,768.47       0.04
August 28, 2020    19,545,519.21       0.04
August 29, 2020    20,327,339.98       0.04
August 30, 2020    21,140,433.57       0.04
August 31, 2020    21,986,050.92       0.04
September 1, 2020    22,865,492.95       0.04
September 2, 2020    23,780,112.67       0.04
September 3, 2020    24,731,317.18       0.04
September 4, 2020    25,720,569.87       0.04
September 5, 2020    26,749,392.66       0.04
September 6, 2020    27,819,368.37       0.04
September 7, 2020    28,932,143.10       0.04
September 8, 2020    30,089,428.83       0.04
September 9, 2020    31,293,005.98       0.04
September 10, 2020    32,544,726.22       0.04
September 11, 2020    33,846,515.27       0.04
September 12, 2020    35,200,375.88       0.04
September 13, 2020    36,608,390.91       0.04
September 14, 2020    38,072,726.55       0.04
September 15, 2020    39,595,635.61       0.04
September 16, 2020    41,179,461.04       0.04
September 17, 2020    42,826,639.48       0.04
September 18, 2020    44,539,705.06       0.04
September 19, 2020    46,321,293.26       0.04
September 20, 2020    48,174,144.99       0.04
September 21, 2020    50,101,110.79       0.04
September 22, 2020    52,105,155.22       0.04
September 23, 2020    54,189,361.43       0.04
September 24, 2020    56,356,935.89       0.04
September 25, 2020    58,611,213.32       0.04
September 26, 2020    60,955,661.86       0.04
September 27, 2020    63,393,888.33       0.04
September 28, 2020    65,929,643.86       0.04
September 29, 2020    68,566,829.62       0.04
September 30, 2020    71,309,502.80       0.04
October 1, 2020    74,161,882.91       0.04
October 2, 2020    77,128,358.23       0.04
October 3, 2020    80,213,492.56       0.04
October 4, 2020    83,422,032.26       0.04
October 5, 2020    86,758,913.55       0.04
October 6, 2020    90,229,270.10       0.04
October 7, 2020    93,838,440.90       0.04
October 8, 2020    97,591,978.54       0.04
October 9, 2020    101,495,657.68       0.04
October 10, 2020    105,555,483.98       0.04
October 11, 2020    109,777,703.34       0.04
October 12, 2020    114,168,811.48       0.04
October 13, 2020    118,735,563.94       0.04
October 14, 2020    123,484,986.49       0.04
October 15, 2020    128,424,385.95       0.04
October 16, 2020    133,561,361.39       0.04
October 17, 2020    138,903,815.85       0.04
October 18, 2020    144,459,968.48       0.04
October 19, 2020    150,238,367.22       0.04
October 20, 2020    156,247,901.91       0.04
October 21, 2020    162,497,817.99       0.04
October 22, 2020    168,997,730.71       0.04
October 23, 2020    175,757,639.93       0.04
October 24, 2020    182,787,945.53       0.04
October 25, 2020    190,099,463.35       0.04
October 26, 2020    197,703,441.89       0.04
October 27, 2020    205,611,579.56       0.04
October 28, 2020    213,836,042.74       0.04
October 29, 2020    222,389,484.45       0.04
October 30, 2020    231,285,063.83       0.04
October 31, 2020    240,536,466.38       0.04
November 1, 2020    250,157,925.04       0.04
November 2, 2020    260,164,242.04       0.04
November 3, 2020    270,570,811.72       0.04
November 4, 2020    281,393,644.19       0.04
November 5, 2020    292,649,389.96       0.04
November 6, 2020    304,355,365.56       0.04
November 7, 2020    316,529,580.18       0.04
November 8, 2020    329,190,763.39       0.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections.  As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

That concept is not inconsistent with your ideas being wrong, lol...

badecker was shown an article from someone thats not even treating patients. where that writer thinks there has only been one sample, one sequence and one result

i showed badecker thousands of samples/sequences from thousands of hospitals all using different batches of chemicals different instruments different patients and where all of them had the same symptomatology and issues. and guess what. they found the common denominator.

yea if we go with badeckers ignorant idea of there only being one case. he might have a point that something may have gone wrong. but with thousands of results from thousands of different locations and patients all with a common denominator. i think badecker has to realise that the place he gets his scripts from are wrong

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

franky1 has been shown that the stuff that was genetically sequenced wasn't filtered properly. So nobody knows what it was that was sequenced.

However, this isn't important. Why not? Because nobody has injected whatever was sequenced, into a healthy person to see if he would get sick... a requirement to determine if a call for pandemic is even conscionable.

The whole Covid operation is a medical scam at its foundations, and franky1 knows it.

badecker is not sure about covid because he is playing the ignorance card and the stick head in the sand card.

however real doctors and scientists know what covid is and does to people
science is not magic and magic is not science. there is actually technology, equipment and processes that can identify and diagnose whats really happening
doctors dont just pick random diagnosis

badecker has been told of the gene sequences that identify it. he has been told of the symptomology that goes with it. he has been shown xrays and other scan results of people with it. microsrope views of it. and there are loads of people talking about their experiences.

but badecker wants to remain in 12th century voodoo land of witch doctors trying to sell herbs where they say the only cure is to dry hump another person while buying into herbal remedies and buying cult memberships of faux media sites

Slow down? yes.

Stop? No.

The virus will never go away. Without an effective medicine, it will be a never ending nightmare.


Only vitamin C? I take 2 pills everyday but I am not sure if it will work. 

"Until Trump is defeated?" LOL.

Trump has nothing to do with this virus.  

He has shown to be an incompetent imbecile on the subject of pandemics.  It does not matter what he says or does.  
He should be ignored.

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

The medical doesn't even know what Covid is. Doctors are applying symptoms of all kinds of diseases to the thing that they call Covid, without having ever satisfied an actual virus pandemic.

Nobody will find a medicine for the pandemic except if it is a general medicine. The best ideas and "medicines" are right here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5252003.40.

Till a very effective medicine becomes available.

I'll be cautious till that happens. What if never happens? Then I'll be cautious forever.

Another lockdown is not going to solve the problem completely. They will do it only if the health system gets stressed. Since it looks like they handle it quite well lately, they won't do it.

Maybe frank1 is really Bill or Melinda Gates, and they want to depopulate by any means they can... even lockdowns.

You're for 1.5 - 3.0 year lockdown.

Do you have any clue as to how idiotic that is?

Any shred of a clue as to how many people would die of non-COVID from a lockdown of that magnitude and duration? You don't, do you? Because if you did, you would never have said such things. Still waiting for those computational models, big math guy.

^^^ Right! People are thrilled by horror and death in the movies. But the thrill is going away. So we gotta give them something that actually thrills their lives by being with them in person.

Oh the thrill of actually watching my own death while it is happening!

Haha. If the world has launched such large-scale theatrical activities, I assume they will not end quickly. We'll probably see a second wave in the fall and it will be much bigger. Of course, according to the media who want to manipulate us. 

you could have avoided all this by just answering my first question the first time I asked it with 1.5 - 3.0 years is how long the lockdowns, masks and social distancing should continue.

But you didn't. I'm waiting for your "FrankyWorld" COVID R models.

What exactly is your problem with the "Area under the curve?"

kinda funny you avoid doing actual research, or some maths. and instead wanna make a topic about what franky says.. in some weird agenda that if you can dismiss what franky says then somehow it translates into bad things in the world not happening..
very weird strategy of ignorance of reality you are having

here is some reality about the possible time line of 'endgame'
take the UK
if there were 65k cases a day then thats 1% of population. meaning 70% herd immunity in 70 weeks
but the numbers are below 65k a day. so expect longer
but remember cases were low due to lockdown bringing it down.

but now lockdown is easing/stopped and we now in the social distancing phase. numbers are going up
there needs to find the right balance of spread but not so fast that it overwhelms hospitals
and the best case scenario would be 70 weeks., but expect 140 weeks


in the topic your trying to take out of context.. i said multiple options. and i said the best case would be 70weeks but expect something more like 140 weeks
yes we can all hope for 70 weeks. but alot of things have to line up and not be impeded by idiots.

also cloth face coverings are only 20% effective vs 95% surgical masks.. but the difference between standing 1metre apart vs 2metre apart is more preventative... and using a combination of masks and distance decreases the viral load inhaled per breath further meaning less of a battle to fight if infected

so even if your afraid of a facemask.. atleast respect other peoples personal space. if not for you, but for others

all people need to do is respect personal space as a minimum. its not that hard

as for the poll and what you THINK i said.
i actually said there are multiple options depending on different mid  game strategies
but yet again idiots want to take a biased view of a small bit of context and blow it up into a big conspiracy theory/lie
as the poll shows one obvious idiot already thinks its the end game now

atleast try to stick to whats actually said.. this forum keeps posts. its not like a chatroom that disapears when you exit the page

as for the 'what they are not telling you about fatality'
i already addressed this in another topic. but il do it again
the CDC is not the co-ordinating source of uptodate data. i know you silly little people want to use their delayed data to pump a narrative that it cant be right because its delayed.
the reason is simple the CDC is not source data never was.
if you want actual uptodate data more straight from source. look at the DHS(department of health services)

also. separetly
seems you want to pretend no one is dying, and all deaths are fake deaths to then make it seem that there are no death counts to correlate to the case counts.
what you will actually find, dare you actually look is there is a correlation of rise/peak of deaths vs rise/peak of hospitalisations vs rise/peak of cases confirmed
they dont happen all on one day. there is a trend from having mild symptoms/getting tested. to those symptoms getting worse to need hospital.. to then be in hospital and either be discharged or die.

this delay is ~1 week from initial symptom to needing hospital. and 2 weeks in hospital until better or dead
you can actually take these datapoints and work out actual case fatality rate

take a certain idiots state of arizona(i enjoy poking holes in his thoughts) with a 5k positive case peak. and a 500 hospitalisation peak and a 150 intubation peak and a 50 death peak
you can work out 10% need hospital care 3% need ventilation and 1% die
if you have it you have a 90% chance of not needing hospital
yep if you go to hospital you have a 90% chance of coming out better.
if you go onto vent you have a 66% chance of getting better

you will see the peak of each category if your looking at the real data and not data provided by the type of faux media that love antivaxxers/conspiracies.

.. but it seems a certain couple people in this topic are not interested in facts, they are interested in ways to dismiss facts to stick their head in the sand and pretend nothing bad is happening in the world

Masks will only be necessary for as long as the people don't sue (etc.) their governing officials for promoting anarchy.

Rt COVID-19

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live

What the media won't tell you about the CV case fatality rate.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/07/16/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-the-united-states-coronavirus-case-fatality-rate-n610264

Using R to model COVID

https://www.r-bloggers.com/top-5-r-resources-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Visualize COVID-19 case data in a blink of an eye — using R, Shiny & Plotly

https://towardsdatascience.com/create-a-coronavirus-app-using-r-shiny-and-plotly-6a6abf66091d

How much longer is the social distancing and masks needed/tolerable?