Crash duration | Bitcointalksearch.org

Bitcoin BEAR

full member

Activity: 143

Merit: 100

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on September 09, 2013, 02:49:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 02:40:29 PM

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

I don't get why it must be binary. Why can't there be a deep correction without complete failure?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: chriswilmer on March 19, 2014, 11:30:27 PM

Hmm... how long has it been? Anybody keeping track?

Look at a chart! It's all there

But it's been 94 days since the ATH

chriswilmer

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Hmm... how long has it been? Anybody keeping track?

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

HODL OR DIE

Quote from: notme on September 09, 2013, 10:10:14 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 04:01:52 PM

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on September 09, 2013, 02:49:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 02:40:29 PM

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

Duration does not equal depth.

That's what she said.

A+

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 04:01:52 PM

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on September 09, 2013, 02:49:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 02:40:29 PM

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

Duration does not equal depth.

That's what she said.

nobbynobbynoob

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 04:01:52 PM

Duration does not equal depth.

Quite so.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on September 09, 2013, 02:49:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 02:40:29 PM

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

Duration does not equal depth.

nobbynobbynoob

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 09, 2013, 02:40:29 PM

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Joe200 on September 09, 2013, 08:12:56 AM

Here is a list of all previous price drops of 15 percent or more. Peak, trough, number of days from peak to tough, and percent price drop.

Code:

1 2010-07-19 0.09 2010-07-24 0.05 5 44.4
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2010-12-10 0.19 33 47.2
3 2011-01-16 0.39 2011-01-19 0.31 3 20.5
4 2011-02-14 1.06 2011-04-05 0.67 50 36.8
5 2011-05-14 7.86 2011-05-21 5.97 7 24.0
6 2011-06-09 29.58 2011-11-18 2.14 156 92.8
7 2012-01-08 7.05 2012-02-16 4.19 39 40.6
8 2012-08-17 13.26 2012-08-19 9.09 2 31.4
9 2013-04-09 214.67 2013-04-16 65.33 7 69.6

The longest crash lasted 156 days. It has now been 153 days since the April 9 peak.

Typically, though, crashes are over very quickly. The median is only 7 days. The mean is 33.6 days.

Great research.

The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer. If like 2011 the correction would be also 2.5 longer than the parabolic rise that would be 225 days or 7.5 months after April 9th peak = end November.

jeffhuys

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

It's always nice to see that people keep track of these statistics. It could mean everything (or nothing). At least it supplies information for those that need it.

davidgdg

hero member

Activity: 552

Merit: 501

Quote from: pikeadz on September 09, 2013, 09:08:19 AM

This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.

Actually I find it quite interesting.

grovestr

newbie

Activity: 45

Merit: 0

Quote from: pikeadz on September 09, 2013, 09:08:19 AM

This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.

I think so too.

+1

pikeadz

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.

Joe200

sr. member

Activity: 317

Merit: 252

UPDATE: new version here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-next-crash-610189

Here is a list of all previous price drops of 15 percent or more. Peak, trough, number of days from peak to tough, and percent price drop.

Code:

1 2010-07-19 0.09 2010-07-24 0.05 5 44.4
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2010-12-10 0.19 33 47.2
3 2011-01-16 0.39 2011-01-19 0.31 3 20.5
4 2011-02-14 1.06 2011-04-05 0.67 50 36.8
5 2011-05-14 7.86 2011-05-21 5.97 7 24.0
6 2011-06-09 29.58 2011-11-18 2.14 156 92.8
7 2012-01-08 7.05 2012-02-16 4.19 39 40.6
8 2012-08-17 13.26 2012-08-19 9.09 2 31.4
9 2013-04-09 214.67 2013-04-16 65.33 7 69.6

The longest crash lasted 156 days. It has now been 153 days since the April 9 peak.

Typically, though, crashes are over very quickly. The median is only 7 days. The mean is 33.6 days.

Topic: Crash duration (Read 2418 times)