Topic: Crash will bottom at $30, you heard it HERE first. (Read 8039 times)

I went though the figures again and calculated that Bitcoins value actually dropped 93.75% from peak in 2011, if you don't include the gox hack...A repeat of that would mean a bottom of about $17. I cannot see this happening to be honest.

Bitcoin dropped 100% in 2011 during the gox hack.

We gonna be goxed soon.

Just because Bitcoin value dropped 90% from peak in 2011, doesn't mean it will repeat that in 2013...Bubbles always burst but the percentage drops from peak to bottom and timeframes are always different each time. Although I believe we will test $50-$60 again this year, I doubt we will see $30.

My 2 cents.

Easiest prediction evar.

Not yet.

90 days + 9 so far--not even close to $30

lol OP unactive since April 18th.

Went silent after he locked his scam money making thread.

Guys I think we hurt his feelings. 

lol

This is what you call a pathetic troll. lol

Does that even scale? 

How'bout you also tell how much you made today, then. I made almost nothing, $2k lol what is that between you and me.

Hey Genius,

Good job, not answering my questions lol. So fail haha 

I don't really care when it comes down to it. I just want more of his money

Electricmucus - you are a straight up idiot, i mean really, do you even have a clue what you are saying?

LOL which is why you would want the price to go to single digits?

How does him pumping the price make it go to single digits? 

In a way it's guys like rpietila which pay me. The more they pump the scheme up the more I can siphon off from it.

I do have to say his trolling is pathetic. 

I'm the troll 

LOL your calling out is pathetic.

Did you sell all your bitcoins? haha 

he's either a paid troll or one seriously sad, pathetic guy

dude's got a lot of time free time on his hands. that or he is being paid by someone to troll

I appreciate his posts. They provide a counterweight to much of the baseless permabull talk that goes on here.

If people wonder why I don't reply to ElectricMucus, the reason is I ignored him long time ago and don't see his posts. I agree that he is the most pathetic troll, acting as if he did not understand anything that I say, for some reason thinking that the forum is pleased to be reminded about his ignorance several times per day. Please reply if you have ever received any value from this douche 

don't you try to be authoritative with your assertions. can't see the difference except you are always saying single digits etc

That doesn't really make a difference. I am serious, this guy makes a lot of bold statements, and tries to appear authoritative without any data to back it up.
I'm calling him out everytime I see him post this way, maybe he will get it.

He's my new project if you will. 

You're trolling hard  That post was like 5 days ago...

And how do you calculate those odds? Let me guess: "Intuition"

Back in the summer and fall of 2011, bitcoin prices dropped steadily for three months as well commented upon by this forum at the time. The issue became 'where is the bottom'. What happened was that folks who had fiat at the exchange bought back bitcoins when they thought the price was low enough. Consequently, near the bottom, e.g. below $6, the majority of investors had already committed available funds and had little fiat left to spend, and little motivation to do so.

According to the theory of speculative financial bubbles, one should expect a full retracement of the bubble-related price increase. Looking at the chart, I think the bubble started in January at $13.50.

You seem to be pretty sure of yourself, BitcoinMillionaire.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? Take my bet to earn an easy 5-10 BTC:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1534

I would give 12% odds for the following statement:

"Placing a bid order now at $32 in Mt.Gox, it will be fulfilled before end of 2013."

About 22% for the following:

"Placing a bid order now at $49.9 in Mt.Gox, it will be fulfilled before end of 2013."

Well, im surprised.

I just wanted to make sure people see the original... last post on the previous page...   ;-)

I doubt anybody's taking his advice, I just wonder how sure he is.

Maybe he bought back in already.

He couldn't even make $1MM as a rapper... how can you take his advice on bitcoin?


http://www.therichest.org/celebnetworth/celeb/rappers/riff-raff-net-worth/

Are you sure.

Just make a market order.

Me too. Even 130 covered call OK.

So you are comparing it to silver , a market flooded with naked shorts and with at least 10x more paper traded than silver that exists.

That's why he wrote this thread. He wants to buy back in. Silly OP, just buy in now at 100, and sell next week at 150.

Yup sounds like he sold all his coins.

Not a bitcoin millionaire at all.

Then I guess you are out for good.

OP: I'll write you a 50 put if you write me a 120 call.

Everyone here will die one day, you heard it first.
Possibly before BTC bottoms out at 30.
Predictions without timeframe are for fortune cookies, tarot card readers, and psychics.

Yes we are the fools who

1. Is less an a one month forum account user.

2. Promoting a scammy as fuck $100/day service for 1 BTC.

3. Claiming certain price targets will be hit with no real justification (duh speculation, no one knows dipshit).

 

How about you not post until it hits $30, that would teach us a lesson.

This.

1. Create new forum account.

2. Make a posting claiming to help make you $100/day.

3. Claim bitcoin is going to $XX.XX

4. Run away when proven wrong

5. Scam people who bought into your "service".

lol

 

I would put more store in your predictions if you didn't have a scammy link in your sig

I'll keep saying it: other factors need to be taken into account other than traditional trend analysis.

You can't compare BTC to established stocks or currencies right now and expect it to behave by the same rules.

This market is more open to manipulation and having more money pumped into the exchanges daily with more serious adopters and investors coming on-board daily.

Short-term: don't guess, just swing trade.
Mid-term: definitely hold some, have some ready in cash for dips.
Long-term: hold them coins, hold them very tight.

But I'll mark your words in case you're still around

Are you buying / selling all the swings on the way down or just waiting ?

You're both wrong. Bitcoin will bottom at $30, you heard it here first.
You would be fools to not look and learn from history. All bubbles end the same way, if you were viewing the technicals you'd see where the price is going, and its not back up to $260 thats for damn sure. A steady decline is in store for the coin, I'll be back in at $30.

I agree, comparing this to past performance of a currency/commodity is just silly.

What the fuck. The bubble has "popped" on a million different things a million times over the last 100 years. Somehow thinking that "look at silver after the bubble popped, that's what bitcoin will do, book it" really makes no sense at all.

It's like saying I popped my girlfriends cherry last night, and she aint geting her hymen back and bitcoin aint getting $266 back. Both situations involved blood so I'm pretty confident.

you omitted the 0th crash, before bitcoin was worth anything significant. There is a very short spike at a certain date in 2010. This has been influencing the market ever since.
The hack result does count because at the time bitcoins were actually worthless because the only infrastructure was compromised.
after 31.90 the price made a dead cat bounce to 1.99

The first bubble was only the pretext for the current bubble and it did not exceed exponential growth which this one did.  This is the purest bubble possible and it will collapse almost completely symmetric.

The "cashing out" argument would be valid for an asset or stock.

But we know that several early adopters believe in Bitcoin long term and do not intend to cash out.
Yet still they might be inclined to short in order to take additional profit. And obviously we don't know how much of the current BTC holders are also BTC believers ;-)

SMOOTHIE- your my hero

The bottom was at $50, which fits the pattern perfectly

1st crash- Crash from $1 ATH down to $.50
2nd crash- Crash from 31.90 ATH down to $5 (within margin of error, temporary situation of $.01 doesn't count as it's a hack result)
3rd crash- crash from $266 ATH down to $50

4th crash will be from X down to $500, predicting it here first

If the price remains below $100 for an extended time I can see it dropping to $30-$40 range. It seems there's a battle at $100 between newbies that think $100 a coin is cheap and early adopter want to cash in a few coins at nothing below $100 dollars.

I am considering to extend my trading emporium with offering (writing) puts of different maturities and strike prices.

The rationale for me to do so is, I have a flourishing OTC market for bitcoins. I am selling BTChundreds per day to the willing buyers. Even if the price goes down, there will be buyers, and their euros will just fetch more bitcoins. So I can offer puts for each week, up to the volume of my approximate sales, and I have enough coins myself that it can be at least partly escrowed. I can sell the coins anyway, therefore I will have the cash flow and the ability to make good of the puts. The escrow will take care that I can take the hit in the exchange rate if indeed the current price goes much lower than the strike.

So this is not a differential contract but an actual binding offer to buy bitcoins at a fixed price lower than the current one, at some future date.

I am profiting anything between 10%-25% on my sales right now, and the only limitation is our organizational ability to sell coins. We will start newspaper ads next Tuesday. The website.

imo you still can't compare bitcoin at the moment to silver or gold.
biggest gold reserves sit in usa and germany.
now guess how they can play with the prices when they want. (just have read in the news yesterday that cyprus perhaps has to pay part of the debts with their gold reserves
if this is becoming a trend other countrys should follow.)
more and more big players start gambling with bitcoins although the market for bitcoins itself is just slowly developing.
everyhting is at a point of virginity and in a kind of goldrush state.
there will be a lot of gambling between several bubble stages but if i look at the charts of these last years, the price is constantly climbing up.
If the regulating elites don't start crippling the hype, i see good times in the future for this whole thing.
and even if they try to regulate bitcoin, then the masses suddenly would hear "bitcoin" for the first time and start getting curious.
If a government wants to boycott something mostly a significant part of the masses does the opposite and wants to find out more.
It's like to tell a child to never start smoking although he never knew what a cigarette was in the first place.
and what will he do then???
right, start finding out what's up with that bitcoin thingy.
imo only big danger is that somehow the bad parents start buying in and control the famous 51% and with that like the gold market the whole thing.
It's not about the current price of bitcoins, it's about the possiblitiest and the genious idea behind it that stomps every fiat into the ground.
I love it that everythings about speculation right now. At this stage most governments will think everything will settle itself and it's just a short trend.
(same with internet, after one decade they started realizing they should have controlled it much more in the first place)

but to get to the point, nobody can predict the real value of bitcoin right now
it's pure speculation. but with this small market it's just constant extremes.
euro value dropped by one cent in the last weeks compared to usd and think about how big that market is. (it's by comparison a huge fall)
everythings gonna be fine in the longterm...and I'm holding

So you will be left with a few overwhelmingly strong hands fighting to manipulate the market, and empty each of the others capital into their own koffers. Meanwhile, a few early adopters aside, the common man, the 99% who are essential for conducting the day to trade that Bitcoin needs to survive and thrive, will know to steer well clear of it.

Bitcoin to trend gradually downwards to low double digits and to remain there for a long time, otherwise yet more manipulated bubble mania ultimately resulting in Bitcoin going up in smoke.

Bookmarked, lets see what happens.

buying like hell at the bottom, you heard it here first. :-)

I'll buy so much!

Yes, it will retest the 32 breakout. Thats how price usually behaves and there is no evidence that bitcoin should be any different in this regard. The projected target for the move *after* the 32 retest is $500 (plus probably some overshoot). Place buy orders at $33 and a bunch of sell orders in the $500...$1000 range. Then wait until they have been filled and then ask me again for further instructions.

Bookmark this posting for future reference.

Yeh yeh yeh yeh oki doki.

If you guys think someone is stupid enough to sell < $30 now I know a handful of wealthy investors willing to scoop 10's of 1000s of coins if there is that much volume.

As bitcon said, you are all dellusional to think it will stay there long it ever get there.

That might be what you would like to happen, but the fact is that most Bitcoins in peoples hands were at significantly lower prices when they were bought than they they even are now. Most Bitcoins could be sold today, netting the holder a big profit.

Your own brand of thinking suggests to me however, that you are late entrant into the market and are actually in negative equity, yet don't want to admit your losses.

See, the difference between people who have made profit from a stock and those who have lost value on a stock, is that profit makers are much quicker to sell than the loss takers. Those who are already well in the black multiple times over (even with crash) will gradually see which way the wind is blowing and try to capitalise on the still much higher prices, which of course will have the effect of sending the price lower. People who bought in late, and have already lost 50%-70% of their intitial investment, not wanting to acknowledge their error, will likely hold on to the bitter end. Coming on forums such as this, propagating the MtGox DDoS fairy stories etc.

<$30 predictions are delusional.

The enthusiasm will fade. It isn't outlandish to bet on a $30 target. People forget a lot in 2 weeks time.

Actually i found this:




www.igmarkets.com check it out

Lol. Really, I'm with Warren Buffet, I'd rather invest in income producing assets than gold, silver or bitcoins. Sure its good to hold some value in these commodities to be sheltered from some doomsday scenario. But if it was the end of the world, I'd rather own lots of food, guns and bullets than any of these stores of wealth. It doesn't matter how much gold you have, when the $%# hits the fan, assuming you value your own life, you need weapons and food, not gold and bitcoins.

Yes, please go borrow my bitcoins at Bitfinex to do so on margin.

Much money for you to make, do not worry about paying a large interest rate for the loan.

This perhaps? https://twitter.com/MarkTOByrne/status/322082976915668992

But I don't think everyone does think this.



Its not that relevant, but just take a look at when the silver bubble burst. It has never recovered to those highs, and in fact, has suffered a steady decline and keeps making lower lows.

Bitcoin will do the same I'm guessing. It won't be reaching that high of $260 anytime soon, thats for sure.


Also, bitcoin, gold and silver are all pretty similar commodities to me. Bitcoin has one slight advantage in that there is a certainty of the supply of it, whereas with gold and silver we could stumble upon vast reserves somewhere underground, however unlikely that may be.

Also, bitcoin can be transferred almost instantly to the otherside of the world, and in large amounts too. Whereas gold and silver are less easily transferred.

how is the recent drop in silver and gold related to BTC?

The thing is, if EVERYONE thinks the chart will bottom at $30 or higher, then you can be sure it WON'T hit $30...

dammit prouhon, quit making shill accounts.

See my signature.

Thanks.

Sure, you can short bitcoins at bitfinex, and you can buy puts from MPOe or CoinBr which is a convenient broker for MPOe.

For what its worth, silver has just made a new low if you check out the chart.

Oh yeah... I reckon we've already seen the bottom now.

It'd take some serious fear to send the price lower now.

Nobody want's to sell at a loss, so they're going to hold.

Even the early investors aren't going to want to miss the ride up.

Look at the chart of silver guys.

I'm bullish long term on coins for sure, but in the interim, not so much. I'll definitely be picking them up at $30 though.

FTFY

Haha... I think you only need to look at that spike to see how much momentum there will be for a recovery.

True, people panicked, but the currency dipped to 1/4 of its pre crash value, and interest is higher than ever.

People are now used to the gox outages, and they'll be fixed eventually. Anyone watching can see there is a perfect opportunity to scoop!

Good, time to mop up the coins of fools.

LOL now that you said it the price will never go that low for very long or ever at all.

I hope so because I'll buy.

You only need to look at that massive spike in volume on the big red candle of the most recent week to see that we aren't getting back to those highs anytime soon.

Now, can someone please tell me how I can short bitcoins or play the downside in any way?

Are there derivatives yet or a spread betting platform of some sort?

This is a legitimate question, please answer if you know how.

This will last significantly longer than 30 days.

hear hear!

Mark my words people.
Timeframe, within 30 days.



It will follow the footsteps of silver and gold: