Well, half of the BTC from MTGOX is already gone.
What do you mean by half is gone? I'll give you my vague outline of a remembrance...
In 2014, there were around 600k BTC that were hacked or lost, but then around 220k that were found/recovered. There were other assets as well dollars, yen and maybe some corporate assets.
Then maybe one or two times a proportion of the stash was shaved off to cover administrative costs, but I am having a memory that would have been less than 20% (not 50%) and maybe included selling some of the Bcash...
Maybe I just need a link to a more recent rendition of the various happenings to see how you get to an assertion that 50% of the BTC is gone (presumably you are referring to whatever the quantity of BTC that had been recovered as of 2014-ish as a starting point?).
Of course, the summary post of JohanM below is more important than the history of how the quantities of assests happen to be whatever they happen to be.. because JohanM's summary gives the bottom line punchline of the distribution.
In short the rehabilitation plan will provide following payments:
- cash holders: 100% of their assets back + 6% interest per year.
- BTC holders: around 15% back in the form of money or BTC+BCH
In the last bull run they already sold enough BTC+BCH to do the cash payments.
The cash holders 100% repayment ability due to the high BTC/BCH exchange rate was the reason the rehabilitation process was even possible.
The payments will be done in several steps.
All other coins are lost (BSV, BCHA, BTG, BTA, ...)
I will note another memory that I have about some of the dynamics of this whole situation that likely contributes to the concept that BTC dumpenings are quite likely. I would suspect if all the original individuals had their claims, then they may or may not dump, or they may just dump some portion that does not add up to much if anything; however, in this case, there seems to be a decent amount of evidence that some scalping companies have come into the mix and have bought the individual claims and so therefore own a large number of coins, and also they will likely dump as soon as they get the coins because it is part of their business model.
Hopefully, they are at least smart enough to attempt to be strategic about their dumpening in order to NOT affect the BTC price, but we cannot necessarily expect such benevolence so they could dump in a way to attempt to push the BTC price down, including couple their dump with some kind of FUD spreading and coordinated with others.
Personally, I give few shits in respect to what the BIG players do even if they end up having 100k BTC to dump, and the BTC market will absorb those coins one way or another whether the BIG players who have become the owners of several claims decide to dump their coins in a manipulative way or they end up dumping them in a more "responsible" way.