100 grand is now seemingly the most commonly quoted figure across this forum which is pretty bonkers when you think about it.
it is not that big a number if you think about it in comparison to number of people who want to have a share in it. we only have 17.7 million of it in circulation and the world population is 7.7 billion. even if only 1% of the world bought bitcoin that is 77 million investors each only getting 0.22
BTC with current supply!
i'd say even with 1% adoption $100k price is still too low.
While the official number for market cap purposes is 17.7 million, the actual number of tradeable coins is way lower, I'd estimate around half of that. There are many lost coins and many coins held by whales that simple wil never be offered for fiat.
The figure you use that really pops out to me as innacurate is the 0.22 btc for 1% of the world "investors". You must assume all btc are evenly held, which is entirely unrealistic. Can you really imagine Tim Draper selling all but 0.22 of his 10s of thousands of btc just to be fair and share the wealth? The real value is a tiny fraction of 0.22.
I really don't see bitcoin peaking at $100k at the end of 2021 then crashing for the following year, similar to the last couple 4 year patterns. I think this move we are seeing now is a clean break from past patterns, so what we will see next is unprecidented. I also think that 5x last ath is ridiculously low when the last couple aths were like 20x+ previous aths. Because of the previously mentioned break from past patterns this could happen though, with a stable $100kish price going forward rather than a huge crash following the run to 6 figures.
If the coming 4 year cycle pattern repeats, I would expect nothing short of $250k for a peak followed by a year long crash.