Topic: Crypto Veterans and Legendaries: Need Advice on my Bitcoin Strategy (Read 1246 times)

Update:

today is October 2nd, 2024.

Bitcoin Price is $62,101
Ethereum Price is $2,464.91

Most of my holdings are in Ethereum and some in a couple of random unknown altcoins which stayed low and did not pump, but I expect them to pump in a bull run.

Now, I fully expect Ethereum to reach at-least $10k by 2025 November/December which is a solid 4x from now which actually should be enough for me to exit the game permanently.

Or, I can convert 100% of Ethereum to Alts right now and there is greater chance of me getting the 4x by next year Feb/March.. or even 10x - 20x by next November/December.
But, of-course there is risk. Ethereum is as stable as it can be in terms of security no rug pulls no exploits etc. With alts all bets are off. You can never 100% be sure if you are going to be safe.

Another play is to wait for Ethereum to rise up to $4000 in a couple of months.. by Dec 2024 or Jan 2025 and normally all the alts should still stay at the same levels.. and then switch from Ethereum to Alts.

Yesterday, there was war and it impacted all the prices.

For alts, I am looking for
1. Good Tokenomics (first pref) or Token Unlocking which makes sense. (second pref)
2. New Narrative for this cycle.
3. The admins/leaders etc has a good understanding of marketing and how it works. i.e If price discussion is not allowed in their telegram channels then they don't understand marketing and the coin is not likely to go up as much as it could. If the admins delete replies or keep a timer etc. I would avoid that coin.

So a few of the new narratives are:
1. AI Narrative.
2. Telegram Games.
3. Solana Memecoins ( I don't really like meme coins)

For me safety is more important than taking too much risk. So, I won't invest in any coin which has less than 50m ~ 100m marketcap. Even coins above this range are not risk free.

I have to do more research on AI Narrative.
Telegram Games --> Hamster Kombat is fine.. it is right now at $300m that too because of the war. I doubt it would go below $300m. In a proper bull it could easily go to $10B MarketCap easy. Thats a solid 33x from now. I have to also look into the coin that is similar to Hamster Kombat but isn't as big so the jump in gains will be higher.

Go to go.. will continue this post later today..
There is also a chance I would lose everything investing in things that get rug pulled so I will have to diversify into multiple coins and multiple narratives. But I will not go beyond 10 coins.
Lets see how things play out. My innate tendency is to focus on just one or two.. but I have to not do that.. as that could torpedo everything.   

all the time regrets happen after that wrong decisioning mate so  that is normal to feel such way ,
but Ethereum is not doing any bad these days because it keeps holding in above 2500 $ and for me that is enough for you to constantly supporting ETH.

I know you can keep that Holding because since 2021 you have keeping this thread updated with your success ,  how I wish I have this same capacity of you to keep holding and deny the temptation of selling all coins for good.

It's normal for Bitcoin prices to go up and down, because if the price of Bitcoin doesn't go up and down, investors will never be able to reap the benefits. I believe this halving in bitcoin price has created a deep market to create opportunity for investors. Because you can see from past history, every halving is followed by a bull run for the next 100 to 150 days. So now we must buy and hold bitcoins in this deep market at present, and everyone can sell it as per the benefit when the bull market starts and it is suitable for long term holding.

You got the wrong date. That was from the year 2023 and month July 1st. 1 year back. Bitcoin crashed to $25k shortly after I posted the post. I did not sell at that time.

I don't think, the price of Bitcoin will decrease to $20,000 again, because the price of Bitcoin has hit new ATH this year which will be the reason the price will not be lower than $40,000 before the price will start increasing, and if you have it in mind to purchase Bitcoin in this season, once the price decrease to $42,000 or $40,000, I will advice you to purchase Bitcoin and hold for bullish season to appear. You think Ethereum will give you the huge amount of income your made from Bitcoin investment last month, Because I know that Bitcoin will still help you to make double income when the price increases to $100,000, which is the target of many holders in this season. Try to make a good decision to avoid altcoins, because there are many opportunities in Bitcoin investment, if you can embrace long term investment.

damn.. >> Waiting for Ethereum to cross atleast $3500 in the short term.
This is exactly what happened. I should have sold everything and waited for a crash to the current prices and rebuy. But I did not.
That's fine. Feeling a bit of regret. But that is fine.

I won't touch anything till October/December of this year like I already decided in the past..
Two more final updates. One this year end and then one next year mid or late 2025.

Update: Not doing nothing is working really well.
Today is Feb 20th 2024. Ethereum is $2925.22 right now.

Waiting for Ethereum to cross atleast $3500 in the short term.
This August~October I expect it to cross previous ATH easily and the next leg of the Bull run should start.

I am not looking to actively trade but maybe if Eth previous ATH crossed I might invest 10% in promising new coins.

Next Update will be around Oct/Dec of this year.. and one final update next year mid or late 2025.

Made up my mind permanently. I won't trade anything anymore.

I will not sell Crypto when ETF news hits mainstream media.

I will stay put till the year 2025 and then will sell everything once coinbase becomes the most downloaded app in the app store + 9 days.

This is my pre-final update.

I will post one final time after 2 years.. around 2025 Nov/Dec

Update: Today is November 10th 2023. Looking back, I got lucky again with the timing! I got a good entry point back into Eth from stables.
Ethereum Price is currently at $2100 which is big jump. Originally, my plan was to get back into Crypto i.e from stables to Eth around this time. But I got in earlier because of reasons mentioned.

Now the question is this! Is this a Bull Trap? i.e Will there be a pull back?
The most rational thing to do is to do nothing. Just do nothing till the next peak in a proper bull market i.e in 2025.

i.e I have to wait for nearly 2 whole years i.e All of 2024 and Most of 2025.

Or, I can wait for the ETF announcement to be finalized within the next few weeks. Wait for the Market to pump even higher and then move to Stable coins.
After the correction I can get back into Crypto for even more gains.

Not sure what I will do. Doing Nothing is the best thing to do so I might do that.

But, if you read all of my posts in this thread I was able to predict and time the market both the top and the bottom repeatedly. Again, and again.
i.e I sold at the top in November 2021. I bought BTC back at the bottom around $16k. I again sold BTC at the local top at around $29k a few months back.
Now, 2 days back I got back into crypto. Only the future will tell if me buying back in now is a good decision or not.

I have never DCAd. I go all in buying or selling.. usually over 1 day or 2 days max. This is what worked for me so far.

This is the forum I use to get a feel for the market sentiment. I make decisions based on that as well.

You are right. It is tough to stick to the plan made 2 years back. Mostly because of emotions. I am trying my best.
I chose Ethereum instead of Bitcoin because Ethereum will have more gains than BTC in the short term.

I have to isolate myself because constantly reading up on crypto is bad for health.

There’s no safe strat when all you’re really doing is timing the market. Even experts would agree that they couldn’t predict what the market will look like let alone how much higher bitcoin will get during certain parts of its timeline during bullrun, It’s a little weird even to assume that such a strat exists.


I say buy low sell high. DCA as much as you can and stock up on crypto and bitcoin as much as possible as early as you can. Worry about moving all your investments out when the dumping happens, until then, continue holding. That’s what worked for me thus far anyway.

Also use this forum as a treasure trove of information.

Totally really that hard when you do try to isolate yourself or keeping away on crypto market but this is your choice though and i could say that this is really requiring that
kind of extreme control and discipline which you would really be needing to be followed because you are really that following something. So seeing on the things you've been doing here
then it do really shows that there are some alterations of your focus on which you diverted out from Bitcoin to ETH. On what reason on why you did such thing?
Are those dump dates are just the same on what Bitcoin could possibly do? Yes, there's no need to be perfect but we know that we are trying to be done but since market is unpredictable
then there's no way on knowing on what would be the numbers.

It is really just really that good to look and read into those people who had made out their investment decisions wayback on a couple of years and tending to comeback on the time
that a various or certain date would approach on, only a few could be able to do such feat.

You are replying to a post made in 2021 November!

Update: I went all in on Ethereum couple of days back. Around September 22nd.

Note: My original plan was to wait till atleast Oct ending i.e around 23rd and DCA till November 12th. I still think going all in on November 12th or even any day between Oct 23rd - Nov 12th is ideal.
But, my situation is such that .. it makes no sense for me to time the absolute bottom.. it is just stupid ego play. Just not worth the risk for me.

Even from today's prices.. I still expect to easily 6x. That is still good enough for me!
The other mistake I made was to go to all in on Ethereum. A better approach would have been to go back into Bitcoin.. and wait for the mini rally.. and then convert to Ethereum..
but its fine. I don't need to be perfect.

Next Play.. I expect Ethereum to go down to $1400 or even $1200 by November 12th.. and then rally up to around $2400 by next around Feb 16th 2024. easy 1.5x from the current prices.

To summarize: Why did I buy back into Crypto now?
1. Everyone saying Crypto is dead.
2. This time institutions are getting involved and I believe things will be a bit different this time. These guys have unending supply of money and if they so choose they can just keep on buying etc.
this was too much of a risk as far as my personal situation is concerned.
3. I am checking the charts way too often to my liking. I just want to move on. I made the purchase now. I will convert everything into stable coins once I get 1.5x on Ethereum. Then wait for a correction and then buy back in. Or. I can invest a significant portion of it on new alts.
4. Google Trends for Ethereum is pretty low in the 5 year timeline.. it is at 5. (the search volume level).

tl;dr
I still have the upside so I went all in now instead of trying to time the absolute bottom on November 12th.
Right now.. as of Sept 24th 2023. Ethereum price is at $1594. 


Next Stop: Feb 16th 2024. 
I am going to delete all the apps on the phone. Will block all the crypto related websites and I will move on.

I suppose that stablecoins are not a good option, since the main objective of crypto hodling is to save money in case of dollar and other fiats inflation, while the value of stablecoins corresponds with the value of their fiat counterparts. The BTC price rise can occur not only due to BTC becoming more expensive, but also due to fiats becoming cheaper. Holding stablecoins is just like holding fiat money (and even worse, since they are more secure in non-crypto form). So, I think its better to buy crypto now, instead of waiting for market to become bearish. As for hodling... In general, hodling is a good strategy in cryptoinvestment (I'd rather not call hodling an investment, it's just a purchase). I thnk that its a good idea to hodl BTC..

Clever, A good strategy, at least reading the discourse is quite impressive. I see it is quite regular, there are Plan A and Plan B. But, for one thing, what do we note? What is planned is not necessarily going to go according to plan, but there are moments that will make you withdraw from the market for some time (Not a Skeptic ). Well, if your initial experience was quite impressive, yes. just move on. Good luck guys and stay informed of course.

Update:


Today is August 18th!

Bitcoin Price has crashed just like I expected it to! It is now @ $26,049.25

I cashed out to USDC before the crash.

I am going to get back into Crypto in around October 23rd.. I am hoping that BTC crash to around at $22k ~ $24k or even lower than that!

My goal is to cross a N.W of $4M ~ $6M at the minimum. I want to sell at the peak in the next bull run around 2025 May

Its hard watching the charts everyday.. I will try my best to not check till Oct 23rd.

Around October 23rd.. I will invest 90% in BTC and 10% in 4 to 5 Alts that could potentially 10x to 100x in 2025.

Today is Sunday, August 6th 2023.

The Bitcoin Price is $29,048.95
 
I sold my entire stack of Bitcoins. I already liquidated my one and only alt rCC Moons.

I have 0 Bitcoins now. Sold everything at around $29k roughly.

I am 100% in stable coins now.

What is my next plan?

I am hoping the market would crash over the next 7 to 8 months. And some time before the halving I should be able get back into the game at a discounted price.
My original plan was to convert to Ethereum as it will have higher gains than Bitcoin.

But I could just get back into Bitcoin and hopefully BTC will go down to $22k or so. Then my BTC stack will increase in size. Sticking to Bitcoin means less risk. With Ethereum, they are constantly making major changes and you can't bet on it confidently.

Alternatively, I could wait till December of this year or Jan or Feb and choose 10 to 20 alts that are kind of brand new and put 20% in it.

>> 15% of the remaining stash I am gambling on a low marketcap coin. rCC Moons. Not sure if this is a good idea. Not sure if this gamble will pay off.

The gamble paid off really well!   rCC Moons went 400% up in profit! I sold all my reddit moons to USDC.

Today is July 26th 2023. Bitcoin is $29194.
I am not going to sell Bitcoin like I thought earlier.. I will keep HODLING it. If it crashes.. I will convert the USDC to even more BTC.

I am also waiting for Bitcoin Ethereum Ratio to cross 30. Then I will convert BTC to Ethereum..

For now.. I will not trade anything.. I will wait till 3 months before halving before deciding on any major trade. i.e Feb 2024

Today is July 1st. 2023

Bitcoin Price is $30,588.18

I still havent' sold anything yet..

I really want to sell all of my bitcoin once the price reaches $45K. But I am not sure it will reach that yet..

I will check again on July 15th. I am hoping Bitcoin will reach atleast $40k within the next 30 days.. then I will sell everything..

AFter that I will wait for bitcoin to crash to $20k and then will get back into it..

or I can wait for Bitcoin to Ethereum price ratio to a higher level and then maybe I will switch to ethereum..
not sure what next to do..


but I will definitely make a decision in the next 30 days.
 

Update:

today is June 5th, 2023:


The price of bitcoin is around $25,669.25 as of now.

DECISION Time!

I made decent gains timing the bottom at around $16.8k and now it is $26k
I was hoping BTC would reach around $35k ~ $45k at-least by now.. but it looks like $30k was a pretty good reach.


Now, I can sell everything at $26k and then hop back in the game after around 9 months.. i.e around Feb 15th 2024 but atleast a month before the next halving which is around April 24th 2024.

Or, I can leave everything untouched and let it go.. BTC will go back to $17k ~ $20k and eventually will go past $65k at some point in 2024. So, in the long run this is less risky.

Or, I can sell everything now.. buy back in once BTC goes below $20k and then wait one final time for 2025..

Not sure what I will do.. thinking and thinking..  

Update:
--------

Today is April 16th, 2023. Bitcoin price is around $30k

Crypto Fear and Greed Index:
--------------------------------------------
Now           ====> Greed ====>  69
Yesterday   ====> Greed ====>  68
Last week   ====> Greed ====>  62
Last month ====> Greed ====>  64


On track for $45k Bitcoin around June 10th..


I need to decide if I want to sell all of my crypto by June of this year and then get back into the Crypto game 9 months later i.e a few months before the next halving.
Or I can just HODL and sell everything around 2025 May.

I think BTC will cross $45k this year and then it will collapse slowly to $30k for a year or so before shooting up again for the final bull run.

Will update again around June of this year. i.e 2 months from now.

Looks like I got lucky again and timed the bottom to perfection at around $16.8k

Now, I have two choices.

Wait for the next bull run and sell it at the likely top just like how I did previously.
Or Sell BTC once it crosses $45k to $50k in 2023.

And then buy back in after 8 to 9 months at around $30k. This option is super tricky to pull off.

If I sell everything at $45k to $50k the other option is to branch out into alts around halving which is also super risky.

The most rational thing and the correct thing to do is to HODL till the next bull run and then sell it. But this approach is boring and not exciting.
And yet I need to do the boring thing so I can exit from crypto with decent profits in 2025.

The next date to watch out for is June 10th 2023. Bitcoin will likely cross over $40k by then easily.
And then I have to decide if I should sell or not. The rational choice is to not sell but to HODL till 2025.

This question can only be answered by you. With this dispersed and insufficient data, nearly no one can provide you any advice.

Last and Final Update for 2022/2023:

Today is November 23rd, 2022

I converted my wrapped bitcoins to proper bitcoins and put it in cold storage. I have my make it stack right now. This is almost 85% of my portfolio.
15% of the remaining stash I am gambling on a low marketcap coin. rCC Moons. Not sure if this is a good idea. Not sure if this gamble will pay off.

I am done with crypto. No more trading for this year and the next.

I will become active again in the year 2024 2 months before the halving. Might make a few trades then (less than 4 per year).
Will finally quit crypto permanently by selling at the top in 2025 if there is a bull run again.

Update:

Today is November 12th. 2022.

Yesterday, I bought some Bitcoins. I wanted to buy a few every single day for a week or so.
Today, I just went all in and converted 90% of my stable coins into Bitcoins.
The average price at which I bought all is around $16,810 per coin.


The reasons why I bought today are:

1. 1 year from previous ATH.
2. Bitcoin rainbow chart says firesale. The lines actually dipped out of the color band.
3. Crypto Fear and Greed Index:

Historical Values
----------------------------------
Now.            Extreme Fear. 22
Yesterday     Extreme Fear. 21
Last week     Fear.              40
Last month   Extreme Fear. 24

4. Bitcoin is already 76% down from the previous ATH.
5. Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure tracker indicates an extraordinary selling activity from miners. They are selling more than they have in almost 5 years!


Again. There is a catch. I did not buy actual bitcoin but wrapped bitcoin which carries quite a bit of risk. I will have to try and convert the wrapped BTC to BTC and then put it in cold storage. So, not completely out of the woods yet.

Next:

After 6 months i.e May 2023. BTC will likely 2.5x from the current price. i.e will hover around $37k. I am going to convert to stable coins and pull out of the market then.
3 months before the next halving i.e around Feb 2024. I will switch to Ethereum 100%. 3 months after halving I will convert 10% into the latest and greatest nascent cryptos with good hype/buzz.
Final exit is roughly on or before August 2025

this is roughly my plan.

The other simpler approach is to just keep everything in Bitcoin till 3 months before the halving date. Then convert 50% to Ethereum. Then after another few months invest 10% into new alts. Sell everything on August 2025.

The Next Bitcoin Halving is on April 2024.
1 year after the halving things will start getting heated up. i.e Around April 2025.

I am giving myself 4 months to exit i.e August 2025. This should be plenty of time for the Bull Market Exit.

I should avoid becoming too greedy and then losing everything. I will also keep observing for celebrity endorsements, crypto ads, crypto apps becoming most downloaded in the app store etc during these 4 months.

August 2025 is the final date. Any date before that if I see clear sell signals then I will sell. I will not wait past August no matter what because I would already have made enough profit.

Do whatever you want with your money, you can even specify the exact minute and second when you start and finish, although I don't see how that makes sense. While there is some logic about the time period when you plan to invest, your exit point is completely meaningless and random (at least it seems so to me).


What if on that date the price of all the coins you invested in is 50% (or any other percentage) lower than the price that will be at the beginning of 2025 or maybe in the middle of that same year? Do you want to say that you will stubbornly wait for that date even if the price starts to collapse months before?

Haven't bought any Bitcoin yet.

November 11th will be the date I will 100% start buying Bitcoin. I will go all in regardless of the price. Hoping Bitcoin will fall down as much as possible around that date.
BTC 60% ETH 20% BNB 10% Reddit R/Cryptocurrency Moons 10%. is the split I might do. Not completely sure.

November 11th to November 17th will be the range I will finish buying. After that I am not going to touch crypto till the year 2025. I will just sell everything then and get out.


I will pull out of crypto permanently i.e sell everything on August 30th, 2025


I will not be greedy and will try to settle for $4 Million Dollars which is plenty enough. No need to shoot for more than that.. infact even $3M dollars should be enough.. no need to get too greedy and lose it all.

Is this thread intended as a joke? If not, you're doing your best for it to be the example of a typical bitcoin investor who sees bitcoin at 60k and says he'll buy it when it falls. When it starts falling it's never a good time. The price is never low enough.

-50% - nope
-60% - nope
-70% - I'll wait some more...
Fear and greed at all time low? Why would I buy now?

A while later...

-those fools are buying. It's obviously a fake rally. A dead cat bounce.
-damn did I miss the bottom? It's recovering so maybe there will be another dip.
-no dip still, we went back to -60% from ATH, it will correct again so I won't buy yet
-it went to 50% ATH - a fake rally.
-what? It reached the old ATH once again, now I won't buy it's too expensive!
-I'll wait for another dip and then I'll buy for sure! It's fine though, I'll have more fiat ready.

New ath 100k - when it goes down 60% I'll start buying. Wait, that's going to be $40k and I had a chance to buy at 17... I'm so unlucky! Stupid bitcoin!

Today is August 12th.

I MISSED THE BOTTOM 

I should have bought it at $17.5K. It would have been good enough for me and I still did not buy waiting for $10k.
At the top I sold at good enough. I should have bought back in at good enough. Mistake.

Now BTC is at $24k and I have 0 BTC. Haven't bought in yet!

Today is July 23rd.

I was hoping for Bitcoin to drop down to $12k but so far it hasn't happened.

The ATH to ATL for BTC is only around 75%. I would have loved to have it drop to 80% and more.

Elon Musk sold most of his BTC off so this is a sign of bottoming out. Miners have been laid off. That's another sign.

I still don't know if BTC will keep going down to $12k ~ $15k or if it will stay in the $20k range for a bit before moving back up to $35k to $40k

Another thing to consider is that BTC has larger exposure this time and countries are getting involved. So, $20k could indeed be the bottom.

I am going to start buying in BTC. I would have loved to buy ETH too but I don't have confidence in their merge/surge roadmap. It could go either ways and I feel it is risky to put in large amount on an uncertain and risky bet.

I will start with buying 3 BTC for a start. Starting from today. I will gradually put in around $200k into BTC.

My DCA period: July 23rd to October 13th. I will not invest one single dollar more after October 13th

If I invest everything right now and BTC tanks by 50% I will lose 50% of everything. so I will DCA in and around a bit.
Only time will tell if I made the right decision.

wondering if I missed the bottom 

Regardless of the BTC price. I am going to go in and buy on July 23rd. This is the final date for me.
Hoping BTC will crash before then. If it doesn't that's okay too.

I should have gotten in at $17.5k. Missed it. 

Today is Saturday, July 2nd. BTC Price is trading at $19,289.39

Looking back at my earlier posts one would think that I would have jumped at this opportunity to buy Bitcoins. I feel Bitcoin could go lower. i.e around $10k to $12k. That's why I am still waiting for the dip to dip. Again, this could be the classic mistake of trying to time the bottom which no one can do but still I am trying to do.

$20k - $19k could be the bottom range and it might just go up from here.

I am going to wait 3 more weeks. i.e till around July 19th. If the price is still around $20k then I will go ahead and start the DCA buying process.
If it drops down to $12k - $15. Then I will go all in and buy without DCA.

My criterion for the bear bottom is this:

1. There should be no will left in the bullish soul.
2. Not a single person on the main bitcoin discussion forum talks about "dca" or buying a bitcoin at discounted prices.

In a true bottom, the will just dies.

Today: One of the top posts is about "Strong Hands Buying Bitcoin"
More importantly: 1. MicroStrategy and 2. Nayib Bukele from El Salvador started buying the dip once more.
This is usually a bad sign because Saylor usually buys the local top and likewise for Bukele.

I will wait 3 more weeks to decide. July 19th to Nov 19th would be my buy zone. I will under no circumstance wait beyond November end to buy Bitcoin regardless of the price. And no earlier than July end to buy the dip.

Hoping for $10k - $12k BTC.   

lol

look at the date of the post. I sold everything on Nov 14th 2021 a few days before making this post. I haven't sold early. I timed the top pretty much to perfection. lol
Of-course, I got lucky timing the top. I am hoping I can time the bottom similarly as well @ around $12k per BTC  

That's exactly what i thought lol

Today is June 18th 2022.

Bitcoin tanked all the way down to $17,708.62

Technically, I should start buying BTC. I remember in one of my earlier posts saying I would buy a BTC if it dropped to $30k and my total BTC stack reached 21 BTC. Right now if I bought BTC I will have way more than 21 BTC.

And yet, here I am not buying BTC yet.

Why?
1. Bitcoin is only -72.4% from ATH at the moment. -80% from ATH would put it between $13k and $14k. That should be the sweet spot.
2. There is no hotline posted on reddit or here on Bitcoin talk forum.
3. The sentiment is still to HODL and to buy the dip at the moment on the internet. That has to die. People should finally give up and sell all their crypto and exit the market. This will mark the bottom.
4. Also, Rock Bottom will last at-least a couple of months at the very minimum. There will be multiple opportunities to buy at the bottom. There is absolutely no need to buy on any one particular day immediately.

On the con side $17k to $20k could be the bottom and I might probably miss it waiting for $12k to $13k BTC.

Technically I could DCA from right now. But I won't do it. I will observe the market over the next few weeks. If BTC comes down to $12k then I will definitely think about buying BTC.
The key difference is that this time for the first time Bitcoin is experiencing a recession. So, BTC could go down all the way to $5000. Who knows??

just like I took the plunge and sold everything at ATH despite having second thoughts. I will have to take a plunge and buy BTC at ATL (assumed ATL) and then hibernate till 2024/2025.

Lets see what's in store and how this will all play out.

I made the first post last year November 2021 and not recently.

You are on target with Ethereum comment. I should just stick to BTC/ETH and exit on good terms. No point in gambling on risky stuff.. but it will be boring though. That's why I will only gamble a small amount. I will likely just cash out in the beginning stages of 2025 bull run and exit crypto completely. 

We don't know what the future entails, but I'm pretty sure everyone here knows that BTC will not break it's $67K all-time-high in the next few weeks.

It's even doubtful whether it will manage over $40K by then.


That may happen with other cryptos but not the well-established ones (i.e. BTC, ETH, etc.)


The bear market has already been here since about 4 weeks ago and it doesn't look like it'll be over for another 4 weeks.

Note that there may be one or two more bear markets like this before the next halving.


Don't do any of that, it's a very quick way to lose your 10% allocation you set aside for that.

If you want to invest in altcoins, you only invest in ETH. Why? Because it has consistently held No. 2 market cap for several years in a row. 3rd place is always being overtaken by the "new fad of the day" coin that then drops to 10th or 20th place a few months later along with a corresponding (major) drop in price.

Why did I say ETH? Because if its current price is at $2000-something, then when the halving brings BTC into 6 digits, people will buy up ETH and bring it to 5 digits around that time as well (think $10000 or $12000). That's a 5x - 6x return.

And please, stay away from trading NFTs, ICOs, and DeFis. There are even less signals for the price movements of these assets and in most cases you might very well end up with an empty bag.


Listen to your gut (your gut is always right).

This is what I am unsure of and I am having second thoughts. Is 20k the bottom and then it will go up or will we go down further by another 50% and hit $10k to $15k range?

1. The hotline on reddit hasn't been posted yet. It hasn't been posted on this forum either.
2. Most alts have only crashed 90% and not a solid 95% yet.   

We are almost there and yet not completely there. I am going to wait till the lines get posted and most alts get wiped out. The total sentiment should be extremely negative. There should be 0 hope. People will swear off crypto permanently.
THAT is when it is true rock bottom. And, it will last 2 to 3 months easily. That is when we need to buy.

But also remember we were never in a proper recession before while crypto was in full swing. If we have a stock meltdown and widespread layoffs then crypto might tank even lower than $10k - $15k which means all the gains I got will be wiped off. So, that is a risk that I have to take.

Today is June 13th 2022. The global crypto market cap is $896.55B, a 13.77% decrease over the last day.

BTC price is $21k. I am expecting the bottom to stabilize around $15k. Crypto bottom will last at-least a few months. likely 3 months.

BTC price at around $15k and below  ==> I must definitely go all in. ETH should be around $450 at that time. I will wait a few weeks for the price to stabilize. The global crypto market should be around $500B.
The bottom will stagnate around a range for 2 to 3 months easily. Of-course we might go into a recession and that might tank crypto further. So, it is a risky proposition but I will go all in between $12k BTC to $15k BTC.

If I lose everything that's okay. I just need to not deviate from the plan/strategy.

Once I buy and go all in. I will hibernate for 2 years. i.e. till 2023 December. 2025 Q2 will be my final exit. $4.5M is my end goal. If I target $10M I am 100% sure I will lose everything. $4.5M and I am done.

today is Jun 5th, 2022.

Bitcoin seems to be a stable coin @ $29,906.56
Originally I wanted to buy a bitcoin at $35k.

I haven't bought anything yet. I am expecting another 45% drop. I will 100% buy Bitcoin at $15k. That should be the rock bottom for this cycle.

If I look at the global charts. Crypto peaked at $2.84 Trillion Dollars on 2021 November 12th. Rock bottom is usually 1 year from previous ATH. So that should be around 2022 November 15th or so.

So, I might have to wait another 6 months for the rock bottom.. or it could happen any time between now and November.

I will 100% buy BTC in December no matter the price.

Expecting $15K BTC and $450 ETH in the next few months. My strategy would be to go all in at that time and then reevaluate the strategy around May 4, 2024.
I will likely liquidate 10% of my N.W then and invest in new coins on May 4th 2024. 2025 October 27th will be my exit play and I will likely diversify into stock market, real estate then.

My one rule is to not make more than 3 trades in 2024 and 3 trades in 2025.

I really don't like checking the graphs every day till November 2022 but thats what needs to be done. Once I go all in November. I will only check the charts again in 2024. i.e 2 years break.  

I also made up my mind on the ideal N.W.
It will be around $4M. That's it. $4M and I will exit. It is stupid to try and get more money beyond that. Even with $4M, I can get $300k per year annual return if I get 7.5% return annually. And, unlike income this $300k won't be taxed that much. I can then invest that $300k into other income generating assets. The quality of life won't really improve all that much between $4M and lets say $10M. If I try for $10M I will likely lose everything.

I will wait for a few more weeks and see if the price drops. I am expecting these two events to happen:
1. Complete loss of interest in Crypto from the general public. Extremely low online activity on reddit crypto subs. People selling off their crypto and swearing off of it.
2. 95% drop in most alts.

I might even have to wait until November (highly unlikely).

Even after lets say December/Jan the prices not only don't drop but shoot up to $40k+ or something then I will just have to bite the bullet and buy. I will likely not go all in then.
But if BTC is in the low $20k or even $15k then I will go 100% ALL in. 

>> It's hard to tell if you will reach your goal of 10m USD like that.

10m is a stupid goal to have. I don't need 10m. I will definitely end up losing everything if I shoot for 10m. That was an irrational goal that I had. My goal now is 5m. I can do plenty of damage with 5m. If I have better odds of cashing out with 5m I should take it. Sure, it could go up more but there are also external factors out of my control like crypto being banned or somehow losing my keys or getting hacked. I could also impulsively and greedily invest in something like the next Luna and lose everything. With every crypto run the govt. is taking crypto more and more seriously. I strongly suspect if someone like Elizabeth Warren comes into power it could have consequences.

>> If you split your money you could easily buy a nice house or apartment for 400k USD

This is the real item here. I don't have my own place right now. More than anything I have to 100% be in a situation where I have a fully paid off home. That would mean a lot to me. Incredible peace of mind. This is more important than even chasing 5m or 10m N.W in something that is risky and may or may not happen at all.

What you are suggesting is the most rational and absolutely the correct thing to do. But, I can't bring myself to do it.

I will just wait for the bottom and invest everything in BTC/Eth. My goal is to skim out $500k for a home during the bear market initially and then not wait for a blow off top like I did last time. Next time I will definitely exit way earlier even if that means losing potentially more. Just sticking to BTC/Eth should be enough to reach 5m. But I will most likely switch to alts 3 to 4 months before the next halving and potentially lose everything. I have to think clearly and play the boring game. I just need to stick to the original plan.  I should just put in a small amount in alts without getting too greedy shooting for 10m 20m etc. I am just a regular guy and I definitely don't need crazy returns.

I would suggest you to have some trail buy ready though. I mean you are hoping for 20k, and maybe it will happen, or maybe it won't and I can't tell you which one it will be, however I can tell you that if you do not buy right now, and it doesn't go down, then what are you going to do? That will not be a simple situation for you and I would suggest not to do this, I suggest you to keep it going as much as possible and buy when the price starts to go up.

So, have your buy orders ready, if it goes to 30k for example and you bought none, that would be bad for your future, it is just an idea but I would prefer if I were ready for any going up, instead of just waiting for a bigger drop.

Congratulations to your crypto success, you already made very big profits. Your strategy sounds well thought trough and should bring you more profits in the future. It's hard to tell if you will reach your goal of 10m USD like that. But is this really important for you? Maybe some more moderate goals would be a tradeoff to not face the risk of a big loss? If you split your money you could easily buy a nice house or apartment for 400k USD, maybe you even find a seller who accepts crypto currencies. Than you already have a hard asset you can always rely on. With the remain 250k USD you could still do your strategy and get a few millions profit. Storing your money across multiple wallets is a good idea given your big network. Maybe 50 different wallet is a bit much because you need to store all the information savely, but having atleast 5-10 is a good idea.

Today's date is May 12th, 2022. BTC price hit a low of $26,350.49 in the past 24 hours.

I was expecting a crash like this for a while now but was really taken aback by how sudden it was. Most likely due to the Luna mess. Otherwise, it would have done the same but over a prolonged period.

Terra LUNA is $0.09153  Completely shocking!

I haven't yet bought a single BTC yet. The absolute bear rock bottom won't last just 24 hours or so.. It will likely last a few months at-least. So, I am not in a hurry to buy back in.
Most alts are in -80% losses and a few are already in -95%+ loss.. I am going to wait a bit more and see if 90% of the alts are down 95%+ or more.

BTC entry point @ around $20k looks like a real possibility at this point. The lowest it can possibly go should be around $12k to $15k. I will be surprised if BTC falls below $10k though.

The price of Bitcoin even crashed more to below 30.000 for the first time since I don't know how many months but it is a lot of them.This means that the only working strategy is to HODL until the next bull run meanwhile taking profit of every opportunity like this one to collect more Bitcoin if possible.

In the end just remember that Bitcoin is a marathon and not a sprint,this should be the Holders religion to stick to it,to remember we are running a marathon and not just a sprint.

Today's date is May 11th, 2022. BTC price is at $31,500. That is around -55% from ATH. This is a big dip but it can go lower because the alts haven't reached 95%+ is losses.

Conditions for bear market bottom:
1. Most non BTC alt coins should fall down 95% from ATH.  (This makes sense because most alt coins are worthless and will tend towards losing much of their value.)
2. Around 1 year from BTC previous ATH. This is a bit tricky this time because it was a double top. So it either in May 2022 i.e this month. Or a few months from now, i.e November.
3. Typically Bitcoin crashes around 80%. That would mean a bottom price of about $15k per coin. It could crash atleast 70% this time and that would put it around $20k.
4. The bear market bottom will last for 3 to 4 months and even then it won't shoot up suddenly. There will still be more opportunities to buy it but it won't be at the rock bottom level.
5. The hotline has to be posted. This hasn't happened yet. Crypto is a zero sum game. All we are doing is shuffling money from one pocket to another in tricky ways and then trying to rationalize it.
    In order for one person to make money in crypto someone else has to lose it. When people lose a huge amount of money they have no choice but to drop out of the game. They will only sell
    and permanently get off the crypto game because they over invested in crypto. This marks the bottom and is followed by a slow steady rise and marks the beginning of the next bull run after a prolonged
    bottom period of at-least 3 to 4 months.


Here is the down from ATH list as of May 11th, 2022

      
1   BitcoinBTC                           -54.40%
2   EthereumETH                   -50.70%
4   BNBBNB                           -55.70%
6   XRPXRP                           -87.10%
7   CardanoADA                   -79.90%
8   SolanaSOL                           -76.60%
10   DogecoinDOGE                   -86.50%
11   PolkadotDOT                   -80.60%
12   AvalancheAVAX                   -73.50%
13   Lido Staked Ether           -42.10%
14   Wrapped BitcoinWBTC   -54.30%
15   SHIBA INUSHIB                   -83.20%
17   TRONTRX                           -77.60%
19   CronosCRO                   -76.10%
20   PolygonMATIC                   -71%
21   LitecoinLTC                   -81%
22   Near ProtocolNEAR           -60.90%
23   FTX TokenFTT                   -60.90%
24   UNUS SED LEOLEO           -41.10%
25   Bitcoin CashBCH           -94.80%
26   ChainLinkLINK                   -84%
27   OKBOKB                           -67.50%

You should see a good hard 90% and I would say at-least 95% drop in most of the alt coins.  Many of these alts would be ignored and not developed further. They may not even ever recover in the next bull run.

Why? Because the founders and early adopters already made their gains. It is far easier for them to wait a few more years and then start a brand new alt coin and create hype than it is to try to work on a dead project. Unless, ofcourse the founders have integrity. But most are practical and there are forces at play which will keep them practical.

The next few weeks should see a brutal crypto bloodbath. Once BTC is at around $20k AND the alts bleed 95% and more AND people start swearing off of crypto permanently. That is when I will buy BTC.
Just as it was extremely difficult to sell off at the top, it will likely be extremely difficult and painful to buy at the bottom because you will feel that it could go still lower or that BTC will be worthless in the future(to be fair this is still a possibility). But, I will force myself to buy it. I won't DCA in. I will go all in on BTC (70%) ETH (30%) in a span of 2 to 3 weeks. After that will wait till the next halving to liquidate 10% and reinvest in the new crop of altcoins 3 months before the halving. Then, in 2025 I will sell everything in the mania phase and never ever again touch crypto. Perma exit.  

It is impossible to predict when the bottom of the bear market will be, you may have already missed it. Bitcoin has a history of defying predictions and expectations. The current bear market has been going on for 5 months and is showing no signs of an end anytime soon. However, the new Bitcoin bull run will certainly surprise the pundits and shake up all their beliefs.

There are many predictions regarding the current decline in Bitcoin, but I believe that no one can accurately predict it. It will be here when it's here, and only time will tell when it is over. Bitcoin has survived worse collapses than what is taking place right now and will most likely survive this one, too. So, I believe in the beautiful resilience of Bitcoin. There are other options to consider for your strategy. You can, for example, consider buying Bitcoin in small increments for long-term investments.

I haven't bought any BTC yet.

Today's date: May 1st 2022. Bitcoin price is $38,276.85 at the moment.

Bear Bottom is typically 1 year from previous ATH. So, it should be either in May 2022 or Nov/Dec 2022. I strongly suspect it will be November 2022 end. It could also happen 2 to 3 weeks from now.
I am expecting a slow 7%-10% week over week bleed over the course of time to around $25k. Majority of the alts must lose 90% of their value. That is also another indicator for the bottom.  
Once I buy in, I will hibernate till the next Halving i.e till 2024 March 2nd. I will liquidate a part of my BTC/ETH holdings at that time and invest only in new alts that have a vibrant community, good marketing team, a great dev team and have been launched on major exchanges i.e on March 2nd 2024. Also, these new alts must have been in the market for less than a year.

2017/2018 had ICO mania. 2020/2021 had DeFi/Metaverse + NFT mania. I expect something new to crop up around 2024/2025. I will try to get in early in that as well. I will not put 100% into it but I will put a decent chunk. Probably around 5% of my crypto worth at that time.

2025 Will be my final crypto play. I will sell it during the height of the mania phase i.e on Feb 23rd 2025.

This is my strategy.

Today's date: Jan 21st 2022.

Bitcoin price is $36,682.32 at the moment.

I am going to wait for 1 more month and see if BTC goes below $30k (highly unlikely) Most likely will hit a bottom of $32k.

I am going to buy 3 BTC on March 1st-7th and then decide the next course of action.
If Bitcoin goes below $25k I will go ALL IN. It won't bother me if it slides down even further.

Need to research more on collectibles. 

Today's date: Dec 9th 2021. Bitcoin prices are falling down as expected due to Coinbase effect on Oct 28th and as explained in my earlier posts.
Will make my first BTC purchase once it hits $30k - $35k.
There are 2 possibilities. mini bear market. 1.5 year bear market. Will buy a few BTC once $30k is breached within the next few months and then will again invest from 2023 October regardless.
For the 1.5 Bear the lower floor will likely not go below $18k. For the mini bear floor will likely not go below $30k

2024 will be my last cycle. 

The feeling of having missed gains is as worse as actual losses in crypto. This is because of the stories we keep hearing on twitter about people making it and exiting/ retiring (GMI, WAGMI, NGMI memes).

I think this is all just designed for one thing. Enrichment of the existing speculators who already have millions in stolen ETH, airdropped ETH or simply the privilege of belonging to closed groups. People like you either end up becoming like them or end up being fodder for them.

This is because you have greedily and selfishly concentrated the meaning of crypto for yourself as "I wanna make money and Exit", "I don't ever wanna lose more speculative money". You are in this state of FOMO and fear in general. Just chill out man. Take a step back and Relax. You've made more than Half a Million and that too is in "stablecoins" for now. As far as crypto money is concerned, it is as safe as it can be.

To someone who has made that kind of money solely from crypto, I would say that why not treat it as an alternate career and hobby, rather than just a means to make more money? Just keep half of it in BTC and speculate away with the other by investing into projects that genuinely interest you. Find a community of like-minded people who would like to make money AS WELL AS contribute back to the space.

Have more of a vision than "I don't want to miss out". At any point, if you have that kind of crypto money, a significant part shud be purely in safe, cold stored bitcoins. Shop around for collectibles here in the forum. Get to know others who do it. Learn to avoid scams and judge people. Crypto, like every other sphere of innovation, needs its people to rise beyond just being gambling sheep. Give up the fear, calculate your risk appetite and then invest away after setting away a Bitcoin stash (which will anyways keep growing in value with crypto).

>> you need to diversify a decent chunk of your money outside crypto altogether

I 100% completely agree with you on this.

I definitely don't want to HODL forever. The next Bull run and this potential bull run (if it happens) will be the last ones I will participate in. There is more to life than just crypto or even money.

I just need to 2x or 3x more from here at the bare minimum and then I will diversify more into stocks and real estate after paying capital gains tax. I will take out $1 M at that point.

Regarding speculation. I don't really think expecting hotline to be put up on reddit and here is speculation. This is pretty much guaranteed to happen at some point.

We have a bubble that will be burst followed by a hotline and then consolidation period followed by a bubble. The bubbles might get less and less frothy but for now this is pretty much a given.

You're just pulling random figures out of the air and hoping someone will agree with you, this thread should really be in the speculation section of the forum. Nobody can tell you the future price of Bitcoin, if it started getting banned throughout Europe for some perceived environmental issues (e.g. wasteful power usage) then the price would be very vulnerable to collapse. I remember that there was a tweet in the last year where someone claimed that US regulators were going to crack down on Bitcoin and the price plummeted simply on that rumor alone. If you really want to be stable in life and have accrued a bit pot of cash then you need to diversify a decent chunk of your money outside crypto altogether, that's what any true financial advisor should be telling you.

Today is Sunday. November 28th. 2021.

I haven't yet bought my whole BTC yet.

I am waiting for the market to crash to around $30k to $40k in BTC to buy my first whole coin that I will HODL forever.

If the market tanks even below that point, I will consider buying a second coin at max but that's my limit.

I will actually start DCAing once the hotline goes up on Reddit and here on BitcoinTalk. This will be my entry point. I will DCA in and buy almost once every week.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index:

Historical Values
Now Fear 27
Yesterday Extreme Fear 21
Last week Neutral 49
Last month Greed 70

There is a possibility that the market will tank 30% more and BTC will hover around $35k for the next 3 months and then the real Bull market could start in 2022 Q1 2017 style.
I want to DCA 40% of my stable coins (BUSD/USDC) if this happens over the next 3 to 4 months.

There is a possibility that this could be the start of the next actual crypto winter. If this is the case then I will only start DCAing from December of 2022 and for the next 6 months till May of 2023.
I will not active at all and let it HODL till 2024 Halving. Once the Halving starts.. I will take a small part out and invest in Alt coins.

Anyways.. I am currently waiting for the hotline to be posted up. And for a further 30% drop. Let's see what the future holds.

One good thing about the winter is that chart checking goes down a lot and i can focus on other areas of my life.   

By posting publicly, I am kind of holding myself accountable. I sometimes drink my own kool-aid a lot and listening to different perspectives on this which challenge my way of thinking is something I appreciate a lot.

Also, if I do succeed in 10xing from here on, it would be nice to maintain a historical record of my progress. I am 100% going to switch off from crypto if I cross $7 Million in NW after taxes and move it into real estate, stocks etc. I am going to retire and focus purely on low risk investments from then on.

I feel like your aim for this post isn't to gain advice but more like to stroke your ego, I mean you're not going to need advice if you're willing to put 15k USD in something that's been considered a volatile investment. It's not luck that got you to that point, you know that you have to get in no matter what happens.

Friday, Nov 19th.
Bitcoin price is currently at $56k.

I haven't bought any BTC so far.

If BTC crashes further and goes down below $40k. I will buy 2 BTC. If there is a bull run and the prices 2x then I will sell both the coins. 
I am expecting the downward trend to continue for 2 more months. Retail noobs turned bullish on Oct 28th. i.e crypto app downloads.

Nevertheless, I will only make major purchasing decisions during the bear market. Can't wait for it to arrive. Once the bears come, I will convert everything to BTC and HODL for the next Halvening. i.e 2024.
Normally, it's easy to not check the charts during the bear market. But because I am fully loaded it will be interesting to see how I will behave.

When I had less crypto I would be fearful when everyone around me was fearful and greedy when everyone around me is greedy. I used to buy high and sell slightly higher or sell low.
Now, It's the opposite. I sold everything into stable coins when everyone was greedy and the coin was pumping. Now, when everyone is in fear mode, I am relaxed and waiting.. and waiting.


Let's see what the future hold.s.

What you are describing here has little to do with investing, it is more like gambling in the hope that you will be lucky. You base your strategy on the fact that the past will repeat itself, and that by investing in every altcoin that appears in that period, you will really profit - the reality is completely different in that case. I guess you live in the US and that's why you need millions of dollars to insure yourself for the rest of your life, but if you believe that Bitcoin will have a new big bull run after halving 2024, you can easily turn that $650k into a few million without any risk just by holding.


Your money, your risk, and your decision - but I think that would be the smartest decision for you. Whatever you decide, it is important that you do not gamble everything you have, because you will never be able to forgive yourself.

Why do we assume that if we saw a $500k bitcoin it would be considered a bubble?

Couldn't that $500k price be healthy growth when achieved in a realistic timeframe?

@Poker Player

Everything I posted is 100% true.

There is only one bad losing outcome that I find acceptable and that is Bitcoin becoming nearly worthless due to some govt. regulation or some super quantum computer breaking it etc. If I spend the next X amount of years HODLing / trading or timing whatever and then I lose everything because Bitcoin became worthless.. I am more than happy to accept that outcome. I would not have absolutely no regrets whatsoever. I will be at peace.


Apart from this one exact losing scenario, in every other case I want to win no matter what. i.e regardless of how the market behaves.

>> Are you part of some European royalty?

I am not European royalty and I recognize that I am behaving pretty casually with a decent amount of money. I really really need this $$. Really can't afford to screw it up.

>>  if he has hit the jackpot, that means that he was gambling, and not investing

yes, this is kind of true. I wasn't investing. I kind of gambled once. I will never ever gamble again.

My conviction is this: Other than Bitcoin every other coin is a shitcoin. Even BNB which is the backbone of crypto with their innovation. ETH is a close second. Other than these two coins, every other coin IS practically worth 0.


@Davis

>> You've made 650K USD and you want to make 10 times more?I'm like WTF.Are you greedy or something?

I definitely am losing a sense of perspective with regards to crypto money. I definitely don't want to lose whatever I gained. My thinking is if I have around $7 Million, I can diversify and be set for life.
But I suspect even $4 Million should be good enough. Maybe I will exit at $4 M. The problem is that too much FIAT is being printed. I have friends whose income basically more than doubled over the last few years.
At this point, I don't have that much faith in FIAT anymore.


@Pooya87
>> In other words you haven't learned a thing Cheesy
Back in 2017, $3000 was "at near ATH". I guess you already know that it was nowhere near the actual ATH but simply 2x of the previous bubble top (~$1000 in 2013).
Now in 2021, $60000 is the same 2x of the previous bubble top (!$20000 in 2017) and yet you panic sold your bitcoin because you thought it is like 2017 bubble top Cheesy

I panic sold because of two reasons:
1.  Crypto.com is currently the most downloaded free app in the US across all categories. ~ Nov 1st, 2021.
2.  People who previously scoffed at crypto and who were uninterested suddenly wanted to know all about it and reaching out for advice.

This is simply too eerie for me. Regardless of Bitcoin price if the two above situations start happening I will cash out every single time it happens.
But you are right in the sense that the market could end up in a short term bear market and then shoot up to $250k or even $500k .

My situation is this: because I already have $650k I don't really need to win THAT big. I don't need to 10x in the short term to make it. A 75% chance of 4xing is something that I will gladly accept.  

If Bitcoin falls down to $30k I will gladly convert it into 21 BTC (650k/30k = 21 BTC) and wouldn't mind HODLing that forever. I wouldn't even care if BTC starts dipping further behind than $30k.

@Anonylz

>> perhaps this is the @op first investment at the time the market was bullish and he got lucky

This is not my first investment. I just got lucky though.

@pealr12


>> Why not keep 50% and invest back 50%, if the market will run again you won't miss out completely, and if it is a bear market you still have 50% to fall back to or invest it during the bear market,
You have made a good sum but if I were in your shoes I will apply caution and take some profit, to me going all-in is not always the best plan, always good to have plan B Wink

Right now I have 100% of everything in stable coins. I will only invest $50k into crypto now. I am seriously considering buying 1 whole BTC even at the current price of $60k and forever HODLing it. It means a lot for me to have 1 complete Bitcoin. The only reason I am even considering investing $50k into crypto from now on is if I don't, I will start checking charts and FOMO in at the wrong time and lose a significant portion of my current gains.

@DannyHamilton

>> "The problem is, it's entirely possible that the next serious bear market might not start until Bitcoin hits $250k.  At that point, the bear market could crash all the way down to $90k before it starts to recover.

If that happens, and you wait for the bear market to start before you buy, then you'll be buying somewhere above $90k when you could have bought below $65k now if you didn't wait.

Then, when the bear market starts to happen, how far will you wait to get back in?  Will you get in at $200k? $175k? $150k? Will you have the stomach to ride it from there all the way down to $90k?  If you try to wait to get in closer to $100k, what happens if the bear market bottoms out at $125k? Then you miss out on that run as well."

You raise good points and it made me think. To be honest I highly suspect this could be a likely scenario. That's why I am thinking of buying 1 complete BTC today even at it's current high price of $60k. I would definitely prefer buying at $30k i.e go all in with 0 regrets. I have 0 appetite to go down a high volatility ride at this point.


@crwth

>>  so I think DCAing, as you have mentioned, starts ASAP, not in 2023 October

Seriously, seriously considering this. Atleast I want to start DCAing till everyone in my social circle stops talking about crypto and r/cryptocurrency starts doubting crypto. i.e Significant FUD.


@All. will reply more and keep everyone here posted with updates.

My end goal exit is this: Either 21 BTC one way or the other. Or $4 M to $7 M in USD. Both are acceptable goals for me.
I don't want to ever risk losing my $650k. Simply not acceptable for me.

Yes, I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just skeptical about these kind of stories I read in the forums.

In any case, if he has hit the jackpot, that means that he was gambling, and not investing, so, he'd better get a lot of information before investing again, and that means not just reading some opinions in a forum. Alsol, he should invest only what he can lose.

If he has more than half a million dollars that he has obtained by gambling and he is not a rich person, I would take at least half of it and save it to buy a house, for example, or to finish paying the mortgage, if he has one, and then with the rest, to invest wisely.

pooya87 has made a good analysis. The OP, assuming what he says is true, reminds me of the guy who comes to the casino, hits the jackpot on the first spin and continues playing until he ends up losing everything.

So you've made 650K USD and you want financial advise from random people over the internet?
This is cringe,bruh...
You've made 650K USD and you want to make 10 times more?I'm like WTF.Are you greedy or something?
You can do whatever you want.Diversify your portfolio with various assets(don't buy altcoins,it's pointless),put your money into index funds,HODL a big portion of your crypto and use the smaller one to trade.There are many opportunities out there.
If I ever made 650K USD in profits,I would just retire without thinking about making more profits,but that's just me.
I live in a country,where life is relatively cheap.650K USD isn't that much,if you live in New York or Los Angeles.

In other words you haven't learned a thing
Back in 2017, $3000 was "at near ATH". I guess you already know that it was nowhere near the actual ATH but simply 2x of the previous bubble top (~$1000 in 2013).
Now in 2021, $60000 is the same 2x of the previous bubble top (!$20000 in 2017) and yet you panic sold your bitcoin because you thought it is like 2017 bubble top

Another sign showing you haven't learned a thing!
If what you say happens, it won't happen over night. It will take price quite a while to reach $200k and $500k and nobody is stopping you from correcting your mistake and buying back!

Only shitcoins lose 90% of their value due to their uselessness.
Even if we assume the rise has stopped there is simply no way for bitcoin to repeat any of its historical massive drops since we are not even close to being in a bubble. And if price reaches a bubble it would be at $500k which means the bubble burst that follows would still bring the price down to $100k+ which is 70% higher than the current price!

Now I'm 100% sure you have no idea what you are doing since instead of actually exiting the market to something safe you have converted your secure and precious bitcoin to a centralized shitcoin that can disappear any time called "stablecoin"!

LOL another shitcoin.

Another sign that you have no idea what you are doing.

A newbie can hit millions in a first time investment that doesn't give them the experience of someone who has been in crypto for years, perhaps this is the @op first investment at the time the market was bullish and he got lucky,
there is a difference between being lucky and having experience overtime, same situation the @op is going through happened to a close friend, he made a good amount back in 2017 but lack of experience made him lose it all, maybe if he had sought advice from experienced folks he would have made a better decision.

I have been buying and selling bitcoin and other Crypto currencies for many years and I think the best strategy for me was this.

1. Buy the dip! (Not small amounts every week... rather save that fiat until the price drop and buy the dip)
2. Sell some coins when the price reach or surpass a new ATH. (Take some profits, this experiment might fail and you end up with no profit)
3. Never sell ALL your Crypto currencies. (One of them might go to the Moon, so you have to wait for it to happen)

This has been a very succesful strategy for me and I will never regret not taking profits and not having any Crypto currencies when it goes to the Moon!

It sure is a huge amount of money, but it's really not that impossible though. Believe it or not a small minority of people can get really lucky and hit the jackpot with low cap altcoins; the Shiba Inu situation being a really good example. $15k -> $650k is uncommon but nowhere near impossible.

Why not keep 50% and invest back 50%, if the market will run again you won't miss out completely, and if it is a bear market you still have 50% to fall back to or invest it during the bear market,
You have made a good sum but if I were in your shoes I will apply caution and take some profit, to me going all-in is not always the best plan, always good to have plan B

Lol.

A person who has supposedly "accidentaly" made over half a million dollars and not only openly discusses it on a forum but also and asks for advice, like a begginer who asks for advise on how to invest $200.

Are you part of some European royalty?

My advice. If you don't need that money, invest it in Bitcoin and forget about it for at least 4 years. If you are so nervous and have sold early, you probably need that money more than you think, and you shouldn't invest so much.

The problem is, it's entirely possible that the next serious bear market might not start until Bitcoin hits $250k.  At that point, the bear market could crash all the way down to $90k before it starts to recover.

If that happens, and you wait for the bear market to start before you buy, then you'll be buying somewhere above $90k when you could have bought below $65k now if you didn't wait.

Then, when the bear market starts to happen, how far will you wait to get back in?  Will you get in at $200k? $175k? $150k? Will you have the stomach to ride it from there all the way down to $90k?  If you try to wait to get in closer to $100k, what happens if the bear market bottoms out at $125k? Then you miss out on that run as well.

Trying to guess when you are in a bear market, or when you are in a bull market IS trying to time the market. Trying to wait for a bear market (and hoping that bear will be lower than the current price) IS trying to time the market.

If you sit out of Bitcoin you might, if you're lucky, be able to buy back in a bit cheaper than today.  However, if you are unlucky, there's a very good chance that you'll only be costing yourself the opportunity to grow more.

If the overall trend of bitcoin exchange rate over the long run is upwards, then mathematically, the more time you spend out of bitcoin the more your risk that the growth you miss is larger than the drop you avoid.

Timing the market is really important if you want to enter the market because you will know when you can enter the market using your analysis.
Maybe the time to enter the market between you and others will be different because you and they use different analyses.
Searching for the right timing to buy at the lowest price will be needed so you do not have to worry if the price moves down because you can buy at a low price.
But it is hard to enter the market at the right time as our analysis can be wrong, especially if the market moves wild.

I don't have the complete evidence for this but I assume that the most rewarded and successful people in Bitcoin are the HODLers. Those who think they are wise will pull out their Bitcoin when they think the market has reached its most bullish point and is about to face the bearish cycle. They will come back when the market is already at its most bearish point. When they are in Bitcoin already, they will again wait for the top and then convert, and when correction comes they'll buy again, and so on. But perfect timing can only be seen in hindsight.

I'm not sure how accurate your bases are but I've learned my lessons. I believe there is sufficient evidence that if you only stick to pure HODLing, you will be making the most money. HODL is the key to enjoy the best that Bitcoin can give.

Why not invest in it incrementally? It's hard to time the market with anything, and it could go either way, so I think DCAing, as you have mentioned, starts ASAP, not in 2023 October. If you have the money now, why not just do it already? I think it does make sense if it goes up higher than expected these coming years, and you might not get the right timing if you were to get into it in 2023.

Here's some possibility:

What if we are already at the bear market level? This is true if we reach another ATH in the coming year and grow even more in price value. You will say that you should've bought it when it was still at this level. The same goes with if this is the ATH, then you would be off better at a lower price.

In this case, this is the reason why DCAing is good. At least you already have a position in the market, and you have set yourself up.

Not saying it's a good or bad move, but timing the market literally just means timing the market, and it seems to be what you're trying to do; which is obviously frowned upon here simply because most people think that they know what's going to happen with the markets and just straight-up being wrong in the end. "Timing the market" doesn't specifically mean timing bottoms/tops, it literally means just trying to time in your buys/sells in general.

If you think you're over-invested, then you simply sell a certain amount that you're happy with. But of course, in the end it's your money; so if you want to go with your strategy, feel free to do so!

Quick tip: markets are usually not as predictable as people think

You say typically as if we have been through 40 bear markets already. Regardless of what anyone may claim, you can never be certain when we are at the bottom or top. We have not seen enough bear markets to understand them in their entirety.

Back in July people were swearing the bottom was going to be 20k and then we would see a rise. That clearly was not the case.

If you are asking how long a bear market will last, you are asking people to time the market. Which no one can do.

Exiting will not be necessary if bitcoin succeeds the way many prophesize.

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

 

I think openly discussing your numbers online is unsafe in its own way.

Nonetheless, what you're talking about is timing the market. No one on here can predict the market and how high or low it's going to go in the next decade.

In many early bitcoiners experiences, time-in the market beats timing the market. If bitcoin is reaching 800k USD per coin, it won't matter if you bought in at 60k or 35k. If you believe in what bitcoin will achieve, you should have no problem buying and holding.

Obviously don't invest what you can't afford to lose.

tldr;
I missed the boat in 2017 Bullrun and the subsequent crash taught me lessons that I will never forget and those lessons are deeply seared into my subconscious.

This bull run I accidentally made $650k and I likely invested around $15k here and there.

1. I am 100% sure I never want to be in a position where I have to explain to myself how I was $650k up and then squandered everything.

So, I cashed out with BTC at near ATH few days back.

I follow the simple Grandma/Shoe shine boy as a sell signal and that's what I did.

"Coinbase was also the most popular downloaded app in the United States in both 2017 and May 2021, as per Cointelegraph. Notably, both periods saw a significant cryptocurrency frenzy. The current surge in popularity of Coinbase and Crypto.com on the app correlates with euphoria in the cryptocurrency market as well."

I am not super happy though. If the bull run starts in the next few weeks and then extends over to the next 2 quarters and BTC reaches an ATH of around $200k to $250k per coin, I won't be able to forgive myself.
At the same time if I ride the wave all the way up and all the way down and lose 90% of the value in the bag, I won't be able to deal with that at all.

I just want the bear market to be here as soon as possible so I can buy lot of cheap BTC coins and then forget about everything for the next 3 years. 2025 will be my second and final Bull slaughter.


Right now 100% of the crypto I have is in stable coins. 
My current strategy is to wait for the bear market to arrive.

The next Bitcoin halvening is early 2024. I want to start DCAing into BTC from 2023 October and slowly extend into ETH in 2024.
From the exact date of halvening I will convert my BTC into Altcoins and invest in every new coins that gets listed in Binance that year and other famous exchanges. I will also reserve 10% of the crypto for the fad of the summer i.e Similar to Defi, NFT, ICOs.

This should net me 15x to 20x if I get lucky.  So that's 15 x 650k = $10 Million and that should hopefully set me up for life.


The most rational course of action I can take now is just wait however long it takes for the bear market to arrive i.e gritting my teeth through the Bull run.
Some times I feel.. why should I do this? If I play my cards right.. I might 10x during this bull run and turn $650k into $7 M .. this way I can end the whole thing in the next 4 to 6 months. $7 Million is a lot of money.
But my gut tells me I can only 2x or 3x atmost and while 3xing my NW, I will slip into the bear territory and lose 90% of everything I have.

The other thing is I want to create 50 different wallets and store $13k in them so I won't FOMO in and lose a lot impulsively. It will force me to DCA.


I might just lock up $600k in cold wallet and then play with $50k that way I won't feel left out of the action.

What do you guys think about my strategy?