The fact is that almost every cryptocurrency user expects the next halving, because they are confident that this event will bring improvements to the cryptocurrency market. At least halving, 2013 and 2016 showed very good results, and I think this year will be the same situation.
I assume that problem can be with mining bitcoin, maybe some miners can shut down their mining rigs because of the rising difficulty, some will have to upgrade their miners if they wish to mine with the same speed, who knows what he really thinks when he say that we can expect problems with next halving, but miners are vulnerable group in that period for sure.
I think that this is not some special drop, normal volatility in crypto with sudden spikes and dips, and I am sure that this entire year will be the same. Bull runs and recovering previous ath prices can come only next year in my opinion.
Problems with miners can be caused by a lack of transaction speed in the Bitcoin network, and in this case the situation is unpredictable. Perhaps users themselves will raise the price per transaction in order to get quick processing of a specific bitcoin transfer. But it seems to me that today bitcoin mining pays off already at the level of $ 5,000 and I believe that there will be no problems with this.
The cost of mining Bitcoin will depend on the cost of equipment and energy costs as always, which can increase the price to 16,000. But Bitmain in May plans to release equipment that will make the cost of BTC production at $ 6,000.
There are two basis of the halving giving good results this coming month.
Number one is the results it gave in the past two years which affected the price positively. If this is effective in the past years, then it would be this year too and that would apply the second basis, because of the fact that it is the reason for halving. Halving cuts the supply in half and that is the reason why it is said to have a positive effect on the Bitcoin's price.
Of course, my thoughts and plans regarding the upcoming halving are very optimistic and I really hope so. But we must not forget that price increases before the end of 2016 and throughout 2017 could happen due to the increased public interest in cryptocurrencies, because in those years many were able to make very big profits and this information went online like advertising very quickly.