Topic: Curiosity made me ask. (Read 709 times)

For those who do have that experience towards this market or have been through couple of market cycles then they are really that able to make those assumptions that it will really be having on the same pattern or movement but just like on what you've said that when it comes to assurance then this isn't something that would be give guarantee and thats why it's really that important that you should make yourself that go with the flow because no one knows on what things lies ahead. So it would really be up to you on how you do handle yourself on different market situation because theres no guarantee that every cycle would really be just that the same. It's important that whenever bear market hits then you do really know on how to take action specially on accumulating while everything is still cheap. On the time or moment that market starts to pump then you could maximize that profits on which this has been our main target since from the start.

If ever that bull run won't happen this current cycle then it will really be making the whole community be disappointed because pretty sure that everyone had been anticipating the upcoming bull run. Pretty sure that lots of investors had prepared for this one and secured out their bags and filled up with those coins/tokens on which they do believe that it will fly this bull run on which specially Bitcoin and other top altcoins and some underrated or hidden gems that we do have.

None. I would love to if it happens this time.
Kidding aside, I guess we all know that ever since it got created and it's price went up, the 4-year cycle has been constantly happening.

A year where all the coins are pumping up and then after that, another year where everything goes down, and another 2 years of accumulation phase. This is what a 4-year cycle's about, and I know most here made some profits following the cycle alone, but what if... what if it doesn't happen this time? What if the anticipated bull run that next year that many are waiting (including me) didn't happen? I mean the crypto market as we see is unpredictable. After all, the sentiments of the investors is a big factor towards the price of Bitcoin.

In 2021, Bitcoin broke the previous record and crossed the highest price, which was $69,000. The following year i.e. 2022 we saw the collapse of the Bitcoin price, ending the entire year with only $17,000. And the following year Bitcoin started to increase its value again which was (December 13) 43 thousand 606 dollars. We also saw Bitcoin break its all-time high of 73.6 thousand in March this year.
I think there will be a bull run and a bear market, so we have to wait for the bear season and participate in the bull run competition. I think Bitcoin may hit $75k by the end of this year.
Bitcoin's various ups and downs suggest the digital currency is on track to hit a record high in 2025.

I haven't seen the bull run in a while but read the history of Bitcoin.  It's a four-year cycle of repeating the same thing over and over again, with the bull run starting in 2021. But again this year the bull run starts in 2025, but before the year 2025 is established, the price of Bitcoin has set an all-time high. Because in 2021, the price of Bitcoin was 69 thousand dollars, but in 2024, the price of Bitcoin touched 73.6 K, breaking the previous record. 
But in the bull market of 2025 we will see the highest Bitcoin price will touch, and I have not been disappointed so far and I will not be because of the past history of Bitcoin price I am confident that Bitcoin price will definitely increase.

Hi Og, can you be generous enough to tell me when you will sell? Little above 80k, or a little close to $100k. Could be somewhere $150k or $170k.

Ok, that uncertainty factor. Yea, it will fail one day or it might not fail. Maybe the effect of it might not be strong and it will gradually deminish

It's just that we think that many are waiting for exactly what you say, but of course now we realize that the market does the opposite of what the masses expect, and many expect that in 2025 this movement will happen and it is as you say, the 4-year cycle is already very close and that makes things more interesting, and I think that all or much of the vast majority are buying because they know or believe that BTC will rise much more than $ 100k and yes, if this movement occurs it is likely that BTC can position itself among the best for 2025, it will be a great boom, I hope that scenario occurs.

In fact Bitcoin hit ATH at the end of 2017 or months after the halving, more precisely within 17 months since the halving in July 2016. Currently, we have only passed 6 months since the halving in April 2024, so there is still a lot of drama to look forward to on the way. Bitcoin is heading towards its peak price. Based on past habits, we still have 11 months on the calendar to expect bitcoin's next major bullish ATH, but we could still be wrong about that.

I'll wait 17 to 19 months after the halving to see the biggest bitcoin ATH in history, but I'm not getting my hopes up for something that's not certain to come true, it's just part of my way of avoiding disappointment. If history repeats itself, we will probably have bitcoin worth more than $100k next year. But after that, we can see the same downward trend scheme between 2026 and 2027.

Well I remember that in 2018-2019 many were expecting BTC to jump to $50k and that was something that many were eagerly awaiting, that's why many bought at almost $20k and it seemed like a long time to wait for it to go up and so it then jumped to $12k then to $10k and at its lowest point it almost reached $2k, I remember it very clearly because at that time I was reading a lot of books about the market to try to understand how the market can be interpreted, so for me that is the time that price was presented and it seemed to me that many were expecting that jump, which did not come at that time.

Bitcoin circles have not changed as far as I know, and as it is now, beyond this short term price fluctuations that we're experiencing now, we're still looking forward to the peak of bull run where we'll see ATH. This would be my first circle experience and from my research as someone who's still quite new in cryptocurrency, bull run doesn't start immediately after halving, so there's no cause for worry whether we'll see it this time or not, it's just a matter of time and the bull circle will complete. I think that many newbies got excited when they saw ATH before halving, something that has not happened in previous circles, and they thought that price will continue to increase after it. So people that will be skeptical about Bitcoin circles are those that don't understand how it works and are perhaps too lazy to make research. Bitcoin has proven to be a store of value, an asset that has the potentials to reach ATH at every bull circle.

While we all know the bull run is coming, there are some who have doubts because they think there is first for everything. They know this happened many times before and yes it has never failed to bring bull before, but we may see the first time ever when this doesn't. Just like within the question itself, you are asking if it failed before, well assume that it did, wouldn't that mean there was a first time when it failed, even if it failed 17 times later, if it failed once, then it already failed. So, maybe it hasn't failed so far but it will fail this time?

Or another time in the future? We really don't know and because of this I think they fear. I do not think it will be this time and we are going to for bull, I do not have any doubt about the future at all, but I can understand people as well. Just let them not be involved, there will be more money to be made by us so I am not really trying to convince them to invest, the ones who will get enough money for all of us.

We can doubt that Bitcoin will repeat its history in this four-year cycle, but of course there must are big and logical reasons for it. The current market conditions are positive enough to expect a bigger price rally, I mean the price is already close to breaking $70k. In the remainder of October, I can expect the price of bitcoin to break $70k, I think that is the most reasonable hope considering the positive sentiment that is currently alive.

We do have that so-called market cycle on which there's really that moment that Bitcoins price will really be able to break new all time highs and same goes with those altcoins too on which we know that these things will really follow through and this has been happening in the last 3 previous market cyles on which on every halving period then here comes that bull run thing and now we are all anticipating on the same thing on this upcoming bull run cycle since we are already past halving season of Bitcoin. It is really that hard to believe that we would really be having some skip out bull run thing on this current cycle. If it does then it would really be bringing out that huge disappointment in all investors here on crypto space on which not only into those Bitcoin holders but also in altcoins as well.

This is why it would really be that recommended that you should not make yourself expect things on what it supposed to be. You should really be that versatile as much as you could because we dont really know on what would happen next into this speculative market. Things could happen in a snap on the least we do expect and this is why its important that you should really be knowing on what you should gonna do in case
if the market will really be that not the same on what we are all anticipating or expecting.

Broken, as in we won't experience the other side? Or broken because the price is not acting normally, either the increase is really high or the decrease is very low? But, I can't see both of it. What I only see is a slow and steady increase for BTC, so the cycle is still there and can happen (preferably after a BTC pump). You got a point that an increase in price makes the price to rise even harder (struggling) but this still can make the public to be enthusiastic, resulting for them to buy and HODL more, so the increase can still happen quickly.

BTC can always repeat itself, which includes both dip and pump. It never fails us, so let's just continue what we have started even if there are doubts that are forming on us sometimes. It should only pass soon. We don't want to regret for missing an opportunity are we? Despite me being positive in BTC, I can't deny that seeing $500k and a million dollar seems still intimidating, so I think I won't focus on it for a while. Maybe we need to focus on $100k first and then $200k and $300k. The rest will just follow naturally after those numbers are achieved.

If BTC became less volatile, there will still be people who will love it. For those who don't, there are still plenty of cryptos that they can choose from to transfer

No, since the creation of bitcoin, it has never failed to repeat history or set an all-time high in a bull market. If there are investors who are having doubts that bitcoin will fail to repeat history in this bull run, it could be the newbies who just started investing in bitcoin newly, with the aim of selling their bitcoin in the bull market. Any investor who has been accumulating bitcoin for a long time will know and understand how the bitcoin circle works, and he will not panic because he knows it is not yet time for bitcoin to start performing wonders. 

The repetition of the pattern of bitcoin price increases to reach a new ATH on a four-year cycle may be the same, but not exactly the same. In fact, a new ATH is reached every 4 years, especially after the halving, but we have seen bitcoin print a new ATH earlier than in previous cycles. But this is not a problem, in fact we can still expect a higher ATH at the end of next year.

The bullrun we expected seems to be approaching, but there is a lot of caution in the market for various reasons. The war that has occurred so far may have had an impact to some extent, this could also be one of the reasons why bitcoin is still having difficulty breaking through the previous ATH and printing a new high price. But mate, there is still a lot of time to wait and we need to be patient with it.

We could consider cycles broken for sure, because we are growing like crazy and the requirement to do the same becomes tens of billions of dollars. Just because it happened so far, and maybe even will happen this time too, doesn't mean we will see the same thing in the future. If the price keeps having these bull runs, we may reach 100k first, then 500k and then even a million dollars. How can we go up 2x-3x times of the price when it reaches those high levels?

We can't, meaning eventually this four year cycle will be broken and volatility will be a lot less. Crash potential will eb there, but going up as much as we do slowed down and will slow down even more. Going up even 10% would be a big deal when we get there, and moving the market will be something that takes months to do instead of just days. This isn't a shock, we should realize how much the market capitalization of bitcoin has gone up since it first started, so we should realize this is just normal now.

I am sure many of us noticed the exact pattern of the bull run. The bull run happens every four years. Till now, it has always followed this pattern, and many investors have made good profits by following this pattern. So yes, we all expected that, and it happened each time by following the same pattern. Just the ATH price pattern was broken a little early, and many people were happy with that. So my dear, loveable Bitcoin, don’t get upset, as we all expected the bull run, and we always have faith in the coin.

Going through the histories, I'm yet to see a failed bull run at any point, may be a change in cycle and occurrence probably could be the case this time because there was an unusual as to the ATH happening just before halving meanwhile according to the pattern in previous years, it's usually after the halving during the Bull run, so most persons are thrown into confusion if we are about to experience a change in cycle, nevertheless i believe we will still experience an upward surge of price later maybe but it still wouldn't change that there would be a bull, just an effect from increased adoption could be the reason for the delay.

This is a history that has nearly spanned 3 circles. We can’t really peg a history on that for a time though, we can’t agree that, the more it advances in the near feature, the more investors gets to realize what is to expectancy and materialization.

Bullrun has been associated to come after the halving and even as it is, we are still after the halving. There isn’t a particular timing to it although on average, it ranges into a good number of months. Let’s say 6months and above and we aren’t there yet.

If we say it has failed, we would be selling ourselves short by expecting much from the market which operates in no definite time. Being fearful, well, one can be in a risky investment but, Bitcoin would do its circle.

Hahaha...Bitcoin will not do that but will respect people's opinions.

You see, Bitcoin is not perfect and history is not a certainty of future occurrence, the earlier you know that, the better. Bitcoin might still rise, but this will not be as huge as people expected. And if you carefully study the history, you will realise that there are some slight deviations, which calls for caution.

Again, a Bitcoin of a few $00B is different from a Bitcoin of over $1T, the huge liquidity to continue rising big could be a challenge, more reason we should be reasonable.

You know in the crypto world it's always "when lambo " because we are ever bullish and if am not mistaken this catch phase came about when bitcoin prices were so volatile such that bitcoin would go up 10,000 +/- within a few days and make a few fellows cash happy 😁 but unfortunately today markets have stabilised and that volatility is missing probably because big institutions are in the drivers seat of the crypto market's.

Not everyone is in the same agreement, especially in investment, especially in this case everyone has their own views especially when talking about prospects and future plans so that in the end even though everyone wants the same thing where the increase in bitcoin continues but in the end we work and do things according to what we think is right.

So in this case the bull run will never fail because after all when the bull arrives then we will definitely feel that bright progress is in sight but in the end all forms that exist are all in pairs and in this scope also we not only always have bullish but also bearish so in the end everything has its own version of the safest way to keep the situation under control.
As for bitcoins they are still objects and will always be so talking about being disappointed or not is ultimately just a matter of perspective as there is always a situation where volatility and fluctuations are always in play to make things more interesting.

Most of the time, it never failed but only delayed. And bitcoin bull run only happens following a certain pattern, so if the market is not yet favorable enough to allow the pattern become possible, then there's no way we will witness a bull run. It's only newbies who are making early anticipations about bull run, even when the market itself is not yet ready for its occurrence.

The truth is that it took quite a long time for people to understand a lot of things about bitcoin, things like the effect of the halving, the four years market cycle and how the different market seasons work in respect of the market cycles. At the early stages of bitcoin, not many people knew when to anticipate bull run so it is usually something that take people by surprise and assuming many people understood the market cycle, some would have held their portfolio far longer than they did and not sell during the peaks of 2013, 2017 and 2021, unless they were selling to buy back in the following bear season. Now we know better and anyone still panicking over the price of bitcoin and doubting if it will ever rise, is definitely not paying attention. 

Most people are looking for profits greater than 3x, so when they look at prices of $60,000, they are not very optimistic that the price will reach $180,000. In this case, they immediately think about selling as soon as the price reaches $69,000 and start praying that the price drops a lot so they can buy low and then they can wait until the price goes up a lot and make a profit of more than 3x. If the price was currently at $15,000, many people would be buying to hold and would not sell easily. But at the current price, the people who are buying are aware that the profit will not be more than 3x even if they hold for many, which is why they sell as soon as they see that the price has gone up a lot.

I was one of the believers that Bitcoin will hit $100k on that year since it was the bull at that time. But sadly, it has failed and now that hope of trusting Bitcoin to reach $100k for this cycle is still there on 2025.

I doubt that the majority does really this. It's hard to recover after selling Bitcoin. And if someone sells at the peak, it's more likely that money will be spent for something else. We're still in the time that many of us are uncertain with Bitcoin even if we're voicing it out that this is the future and the potential is endless. I am one of those that's having hard time to buy again whenever the bear comes but DCA as they say and that's just my guarantee to myself if ever most of the profits that I've made during the bull run didn't go in a cycle of being used as a capital to the next cycle.

People hang onto round numbers way too much.   You better believe 100k will be sold if we ever get there, its too widely watched.  However that selling is worth buying as round numbers also mean zero difference to any other number, its not fixed at all so I doubt 100k is a top.

We could fall short of 100k,   Also we could be at this sub 70k area for 6 months or more and its not impossible we end the cycle here but most probable to me is that the ATH we saw in 2024 is not the last high just yet.

Heres my general take and why I think selling in this area is still normal, fitting prior sells from the highs for this year.   I guess 2024 is revision and resolution of some sorts but not active movement like people always want:



Ignore the squiggles, just the volume at the bottom there is not nearly bullish enough imo.   I'm told by those with experience a valid rise can occur on low volume but also those guys are traders who'd be selling (leveraged options etc.) into that rise.   Most of this forum wants to buy into a rise and hopes for the 6 digits to spin much higher.   Maybe another souce has better looking volume.

Unfaithful faithfuls, I like the use of the word because it explains more realistically what bitcoin holder still feel or think about bitcoin regardless of the situation of the market. I have not experienced any bull run before but on what I’ve heard about bitcoin and from those that were already into bitcoin in some previous burr run events, they do take place and their was never a miss of the bull run period in any of the past cycles. The skepticism I notice with a lot of bitcoin holders this season is the fact that they’ve never seen bitcoin attaining an all time high before an halving will take place, so the movement of the market that’s not accompanied with much volatility will make them feel otherwise and “what if” will be the thought in their mind always when they come to think of what’s happening in the market now. I believe the bull run will come and the market will just take it time before that will happen.

Just a curious question, do you sell/convert most of your BTC at the peak of every cycle and buy again two years into another cycle?
Bitcoin is a cyclical market, so the four year cycle always cumulates in a rapid bull run, quite a few things might change along the way, but i believe we can say that history always repeats itself in the bitcoin market. The only people affected by fear and lack of trust are those get rich quick buyers that are ready to dump anytime and buy only when there is an uptrend.

In 2021 people were hoping Bitcoin will cross $100K just like predicted by PlanB, but it was failed.

I think that's the only one speculation with sense that was failed, if we count with these baseless and ridiculous speculation that Bitcoin will cross $300K, $500K etc, there are a lot!

I think people now are trust with Bitcoin, but they only trust based on the super cycle trend.

The first I join the forum during 2016 there’s a lot of hype and expectation about the bullrun with just a pure speculation on the price without any hint about mass adoption or where will the big money will came from.

Chinese market makes the Bitcoin pump and dump a lot due to their on and off news that is related to crypto. There’s a lot of high expectation that didn’t meet in the past but later on the price pump after a long crypto winter.

Maybe if in speculation the bull run question doesn't apply to those with high capital, the failure applies to those with minimal capital. We all hope that the bull run phenomenon can have a positive financial impact for us, However, the opportunity is there and it always fails due to capital not being able to support buying Bitcoin, which is the factor that makes some crypto users unsuccessful every time a bull run occurs.

People always speculate and think about changes like a bull run opportunity, with unsupportive circumstances and financial conditions that make them fail, not because of fear or other negative things, plans always have no support.

As I remember, in 2021 and 2022, after some major rallies, many were sure that Bitcoin would continue higher, but it reached resistance and took a break. These stops could be very frequent because of economic uncertainty, changed regulations, or market sentiment shifts. This year, however, gave Bitcoin some hard kicks; optimism was driven by ETF approvals, cuts in rates, and better-than-expected economic reports.

People's skepticism going on is not wholly without grounds. External factors in the form of macroeconomic policy and volatility in the market keep people cautious. Despite such mixed views emanating from these different analysts, they still seem so optimistic about the coming months since it is well known that the last quarter of the year has been a very strong month for Bitcoin. Still omnipresent, doubt is there, and the prospects of a bull run likely in 2024 are bright.

No, I do not think that we have seen like the bull run was imminent and it didn't happen. The cycle is that every 4 years, we have a bull run, 2017, 2021 and then next year 2025 as expected.


Of course I will be be disappointed if there will be no bull run in 2025. But still though, Bitcoin has proven it's resiliency already, and with that, you have to think that the demand is going to be high in the future no matter what, 21 million supply, we have mined 19.77M BTC already. So you do the math, how much is left to be mine and then all Bitcoin enthusiast trying to have their hands on that precious Bitcoin, imagine what will be the price in the future.

If we look at the past years, the pattern is still there—it happens after halvings. Nothing has been missed. But this time, we can’t say it has failed either because 2024 isn’t over yet, and we know a lot can still happen in the coming days. However, I’m not too concerned about that anymore because we’re certain that an ATH (all-time high) or bull run is happening. We just don’t know exactly when, but it’s still within that range of years.

But how do we define failure? Because if we look at it, even if Bitcoin doesn’t hit $100k, reaching $73k last March is bullish enough to call it a win.

Maybe the first half of 2018 after the bull run, which happened in the end of 2017. Everyone was hyped up about the introduction of Bitcoin Futures trading and some people were expecting the price to go above 20K in 2018. The bear market surprisingly hit in 2018 and the BTC price went down to 4K later that year. This is the only period of time I can think of. Maybe some early BTC adopters could tell us more about the situation on the BTC market before 2015. I became interested in Bitcoin back in 2015, so I can't tell anything about the first 5 years in Bitcoin's history(2009-2014).

First of all I don't know that bull run this year has failed or not in my opinion is not yet failed since it is not the ATH all people looking for hahah. This image represents the bitcoin chart and it called Bitcoin rainbow chart
most of the people here already know it.



and if you take a look the Bitcoin price we are basically at "Still Cheap" price and the cycle continues maybe we might hit 100K at the price. But what the different with current cycle is bitcoin create a new path at 70K before the halving I don't know it will make the different or not in the future

The easy answer is yes of course but the big point I would make is time line or time frame to movements.  People over estimate how BTC moves, a very rapid change in price is volatility and equates to instability as it can be destructive.    So when BTC rises alot I do expect it to level off and believe its a positive when we revise prices.

Almost always people expect it to just keep going up forward, we should have learnt by now it shoots up and will pull back to some extent.  2024 even if we stop at this price area here, 60k etc. that still counts as very positive.   

People always think they are smarter then the market, that part never changes in or out of crypto.   I think the reason is the market serves volume, it doesnt care about your view on the prices the market wants the maximum amount of people to trade the price everyday either speculation or actual usage.    I'm waiting for BTC to be in the majority used not speculated on quite so much, like every other commodity you can think of if BTC is used more then it will be more valuable hence Im bullish on that appreciation in value via usage.

The four year cycle has never let us down. Not even once. You could get wildly rich making one trade every 2 years, but for whatever reason people still pretend that isn’t a true statement. If you bought in 2011, sold in 2013, bought in 2015, sold in 2017, bought in 2019, sold in 2021, bought in 2023 and sell in 2025, you’d be insanely rich.

Who is going to sell in 2025 and buy in 2027? I’ll give you a hint, he has 2 thumbs and is using them to type this post.

I do not know about your first question but ever since I have been making my research on Bitcoin, I have not encountered any articles that says Bitcoin has ever disappointed before and not have a bull market but still people are in doubt because of the feeling that one day Bitcoin might fail to have a bull market. The people that are more skeptical about the bull market are not the old investors but the new ones that are yet to understand how a bull market works and did not do their research before investing in Bitcoin then they thinks that it might not happen because of the way they are seeing the market. Too, the expectations they had, has not been meant probably because they thought by now that Bitcoin would be trading above $100,000 but we are not close to that price but they do not have to worry as we will get there.

You just can’t control the human minds and how they feel towards things like this especially when it has to do with money. What has happened that caused most of the disbelief is the little change in the historical context of bitcoin. The introduction of bitcoin ETF which didn’t have immediate effect on the market later did and caused the new all time high been attained even before the halving took place which is unusual and has never happened in that manner before. The fear and skepticism in humans is natural and it’s okay to feel that way because you can’t always control your emotions as regards to things like this. Despite all this, all holders still have some level of trust in bitcoin and that’s why they’re still holding to them and not selling them off.

People are skeptical and lack trust because they are not so patient to want a bullrun immediately in a short time, even though we don't know the exact time but for me it must happen after passing the halving and it's part of the cycle now.

Some people may feel doubtful that the performance of bitcoin now will be a bull even they consider this skeptical that it will happen later, for me it doesn't matter I will assume he may not have gone through several times the previous bitcoin cycle then he has not had a long experience.

There should be a deeper reason why you ask this: it’s not just out of nowhere. Maybe you experienced or talked with someone about Bullrun season?

Anyway, checking it out is somewhat dependent on how you look at it because there will always be a bull run no matter the timeframe, but it will depend on when it happened. I think the people who got into Bitcoin way before were more dissatisfied at that time because they thought they would continue, but reaching higher highs is one of the best things that happened after an all-time high previously, like in 2017.

I guess it depends on the person if they are patient.

The major confusion is the camouflage of hitting a new ATH before the halving. It has thrown serious confusion in the market and in either of the situations, bitcoin will be vindicated. For instance;

• If bitcoin didn't bull again, no one will crucify it because it has given a new ATH that is required of it.
• If bitcoin bulls again from here, it will just be a double advantage to the investors.

It's just to be generally careful like someone investing in a volatile asset.

Well, since I got into Bitcoin, I have not been in such situation to expect bull Run and it didn't come. Secondly, I have study Bitcoin, adding to my knowledge about economics and investment, I don't think I can feel pressured if the expected price of Bitcoin is not reach during my expectated time frame. If that happens, I will just move on with a second plans, believing that the price of Bitcoin will still reach the price I wish for.

My answer is simple.

If you made profit, and actually took it fore enjoying your life, you are happy.
If you got loss, and your life got harder, more difficult, you are unhappy.

It is the most important point, and either the market is bullish or bearish, it's not important with you.

There are always people who are greedy and others who are fearful in a same market.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

Now, move to another fact about the market, in either bull market or bear market, there are winners with profit and losers with losses. Even the bull run is going to its ATH, if you lose your capital, you are a loser and you are certainly unhappy.

My advice is simple too, in either bull market or bear market, don't use leverages.

Not so, in the history of the bitcoin bullrun cycle it has never failed, maybe this season they are a little bored with the movement of bitcoin so say this will lead to failure even though we still have time to see bitcoin bullrun again.

At least wait from halving to bullrun for more than 18 months then we will know how bitcoin reacts, and is it possible because ATH is above $70K bitcoin has become the highest? Of course not friends.

Even I don't feel afraid, skeptical or any doubts about bitcoin there is still hope for us to see bitcoin bullrun in the next year.

If I am not mistaken, this year is making Bitcoin 16 years of existence. This halving and the next year's bull run should make it the 4th halving and bull run Bitcoin should encountered since its creation.

The first, second, and third halving with all their bull runs, we can have it that none of them have just missed their time and season for their halving season plus their bull run to be the upper year.

If we are to judge Bitcoin by the market's history it had in the past, we would agree that the same thing is most likely to happen again. As we have seen, the halving happening this year, next year will be the bull run season because it's always months after the halving season that the market begins to experience the bull run. However, the bull run is expected to kick start around Q1 of next year probably. It can run till whenever it decides to stop in that same year(2025).

I can't remember any but maybe with price speculations during the bull run. Like in 2021, many have anticipated that BTC shall reach $100k at that time because it was visible and the potential was there but then, the peak was $69000 and it has failed the assumption of many that have thought of $100k.

I think due to the fluctuations and volatility, it's sometimes giving that disappointing vibe that a person lacks trust on Bitcoin even if the history is obviously showing that it will be better for this cycle. As for BTC, if it has a feeling it definitely is going to be disappointed with many people that have placed trust on it and then dismayed when it's not performing based on what they're expecting. It's normal just as the other markets that have a lot of speculators and investors thinking of quite high expectation.

I'm a late comer to this bitcoin sector but based on historical records which I've read, first bitcoin null run was by November 2013 and ever since then, bitcoin has always maintained its four years circles for a new bull run.
The last was bull run was 2021 which we're anticipating for the next one by 2025 which unfailingly it's going to come through.


Bitcoin is a decentralized currency that's not controlled by anyone and it's basically digital that we can only see it but can't touch it.
I think this is enough reason for non enthusiasts to distrust it and they've not to o be blamed. Every humans need to be careful with their funds as this case maybe.

I agree that the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable and also that past experience doesn’t always translate to future success and as such we can have a year in future where bull run wouldn’t happen or maybe due to the continuing decline in volatility it will happen but would be insignificant. But what the OP asked his if there have been a failed bull run in the past I will say NO there have never been one before, bitcoin bull run according to the historical chart has always come the year after the halving occurs you can check the chart for the rise, years like 2013, 2017, 2021 were all years of bull run so far in bitcoin and none has been missed without it happening.

Maybe they are afraid due to the statement that three times doesn’t makes it a standard or that past events doesn’t translate to future events. The thins is people are just unnecessarily eager to get this bull run maybe because they invested what they shouldn’t

Yes, its almost like a self fulfilling prophesy! more or less everyone knows about
Bitcoins 4 year cycle which isnt a feature of Bitcoin, more a feature created by
the market.

Take this post halving period, particularly 2025, we will most likely be in a bull
run for sure, why is that? because the market knows there is a bullrun a year after
each halving...so thats what we will get (more than likely)

If i am not mistaking, when we talk about Bull run we are referring to those that happen after the halving which should be a norms and that is where a lot of investors all put their hopes on to see the price reach an ATH. Historically with all informations gathered, you are right to say it has never failed to happen, each bull run happens as expected right from how it was. For the past halving years, the Q4 of that year also set a new ATH which then proceeds to meet a newest from the following year, that is why we all are speculating on Bitcoin to reach significant prices, some already predicted on reaching $100k while a few also on $150k.

I will make a research when I'm chanced, but I know quite well that bullrun is not assured when people expect it, it can happen within the intervals of three to two years as people expected it but that doesn't mean that it's sacrosanct or constant, nothing in cryptocurrency is assured, if it did fail today that doesn't mean it will never fail again and it will become authentic norms of bullrun.

I disagree with this as long as the question is if people expected bull run but it never happened. Bull run occured in the year people are expecting it. Make research about it and you will see that I am correct. This is not about short term but about long term. Those that expected bull run were never disappointed.

Bullrun do fail sometimes, you know its obvious that bitcoin price is not constant and its unpredictable, sometimes some people do predict that halving always occurs within periods of four [4] years, because it has happened repeatedly like two or three times, so that doesn't mean that such rotation or circle will remain constant, we know that theirs some factors that triggers Bullrun and you may expect a Bullrun to occurs base on general expectation and prediction of people and it fail because its yet to complete its requirements, so the occurrence of Bullrun is determined through the gravity of the investors....but one thing that's dominate, is the bearish, and it meant to be a barrier or interception of Bullrun due to lack of investors that will energise the market to accelerate

Bitcoin is still just a baby in the grand scheme of things.  I mean, its only been around for like 15 years or so and  if you look at the cycles Bitcoin goes through with those huge runs up in price followed by big crashes, there have really only been three of those so far.   

After every big Bitcoin fever, winter sets in for awhile.  Who knows if we will get another crazy bull run soon or if the party we saw earlier this year was already it for this cycle.  That was weird timing happening before the halving.  Normally the big hype happens after.   

Anyway I guess only time will tell whether Bitcoin has more big moves left in it or if a quiet sideways market is up next. 

You will always find some people claiming a bullrun is coming in the the Bitcoin universe unfortunately, even when BTC falls, there are constantly some people saying, it's the first move of a rebound or the start of whatever dubious pattern actually. You can look at the Wall Observer thread for example you can find some of those guys there. They are called permabulls in financial trading. But it's better to be more cautious about high volatile asset normally.

Pay attention mate. For so long Bitcoin has proven to be a solid crypto-currency and has over the years given so many investors good returns on investment, the real earned in Bitcoin are those who had invested a long time ago, those who invest with big Capitals these set of investors gets the large bite of the cake and except you are a very long term investor you may not earn so much during the Bitcoin bull run.

So this has caused people to shift their attention to alternative coins, some undoubtedly has made people go from nothing to something, Dogecoin is one of those examples but those altcoins are very uncertain and not easy to spot which would do well, so even with a bull run you may not have aped in on the right coin, this should be the many reasons for the bull run skepticism.

I agree with _act_ . Bitcoin is still following a pattern very similar to it's initial trend for the last few halving events that have occurred. Many bitcoiners who are quite new to the crypto space are usually of the opinion that immediately after halving boom the price of bitcoin will pump. Everyone has been anticipating and hoping we achieve $100k but like I always say I really don't see the bull of a 100k happening this year.

Halving assists in bitcoin's bull run however it's not the only factor the determines a bull or when it would happen and that's the more reason why the bull doesn't happen immediately after the halving block is mined in fact past trend suggests that there is often a dip immediately after halving we've already experienced that meaning we are still on track.

If you check history, you will see that the bull run had pattern and it never failed, but also the bear market never failed also. Only what that was recorded which changed and which happened this year is the all-time high that occured before halving, but which was a good thing to see that happened. Aside that everything has been following the same pattern in long term.

Was there ever a time in the past that everyone was eagerly anticipating a bull run and it failed. Like bullrun skipped that season.

• If yes, ...
• If no, why the skepticism, fear and lack of trust on bitcoin. If I were bitcoin, I would be disappointed at my unfaithful faithfuls.