Topic: Current State of Mining (Read 1382 times)

Keep dreaming - Max coin tried somehting like that but miners in general arent that logical just greedy

Things are definitely slowing down but there's still a very good chance that we'll be at almost 5x the current difficulty by the end of the year. That can be funded from just the current levels of mining rewards (running at about $1.75M per day right now), BTC price, retail hardware costs and allowing for moderate energy costs and we'll hit 2x by the end of August. If the hardware vendors drop the retail prices or the BTC price increases then > 5x by the end of the year is very likely (and this will likely happen because they always need to price things to make it appear possible to achieve an ROI).

Data centre builders won't be paying anything like retail hardware prices and can move to locations with low energy costs so they have even more scope to increase the hash rate; if they behave rationally and believe that others are doing the same then they'll actually have an incentive to bring as much capacity online as fast as they can in order to gain a short-term advantage; this is a fascinating Prisoner's Dilemma problem.

when block reward halves in 2016, the dumping of bitcoins by miners is halved too.
Therefore the value should go up from there, for now, I am just bearish on BTC.

There is a definite glut, perpetrated by the likes of KnC and others building mega-farms.

Keep in mind the miners you pay for are retail, the bigger miners are able to get volume on theirs, or in the case of manufacture themselves get the absolute bottom line on hardware.


Looking at the charts though, it seems hashrate is starting to drop off a bit. Daily growth is below 1%, and diff rise has been lower the past few cycles and is decelerating. Not to say the trend will stay that way, but something to watch.

At a point there is market saturation, and in mining there is no reason to add more asics as a large farm when all you are really doing is making your own farm and everyone eases less profitable. Many of the future ASIC purchases will just be replacing older gear with more efficient gear. Hashrate and power per chip won't be increasing so sharply either going into 28nm and below. Each generation will give less and less benefit at increasing NRE to design and produce them. Even manufacturers are able to output only so many chips creating a natural market barrier to how many can be put in service at one time.

We would need 2x the hashpower right now to double difficulty again, which would be at this point an insane amount of new deployments. I see this being very unlikely as mining profit is already highly unfavorable, even for large farms that also need their own custom high-energy data centers to build and maintain around them. I think we'll see the network start evening out, if not now then soon, which makes profit projections less volatile with a stable-ish difficulty.

The network will still continue to grow, just not at nearly the pace it has been as these thresholds are reached.

Buy coins for now, get back into mining when the market conditions are favorable if mining as a profit venture.

All rest miners need to realize it is not profitable anymore, switch off all their ASIC, and not and just left them somewhere in the attic. Then only situation will become better!

U have some Prove of this claim ?

As i can say i am very close to the suppliers , Faster mmm , mebe using less Power yes.

H

How much will I need to transition?

I assure you that innovation is continuing behind the scenes and that profitability will return to mining. Just have a little more patience. It won't be much longer before miners experience a renaissance from these dark days. No joke.

Some miners need to realize it is not profitable anymore, switch off their ASIC, and not sell them to someone else lol.

yeah you're right
it is better to hold BTC and sell when prices go up
dump BTC to < $100
many miners will stop mining BTC because not profitable anymore 

All of this is quite depressing What should happen to make the difficulty go down?

Its just not profitable any more... even script mining is dieing..

Mining is in a tough spot right now.. I've been doing some calculations and for the most part if you want to come out ahead.. It just better to buy the Bitcoins and hold onto them

Here is a fairly accurate estimate of what you might make mining with the following parameters
If you want a faster or slower speed you can just divide or multiply the results

The thing is if the miner you want to buy is more than the BTC listed here.. You're better off buying the coins

Bitcoins Mined up to = 31/12/2014
Speed = 1000GHS
Power Cost = Not Even factored into these calculations because it's different for everyone

Average Difficulty Increase over the entire period

10% - 6.68643026BTC
12.5% - 5.76693502BTC
15% - 5.04956851BTC
17.5% - 4.48134362BTC
20% - 4.02480813BTC
22.5% - 3.65311067BTC
25% - 3.34673347BTC

If you want to estimate there will be a 15% average increase then if you paid 5.04956851 x $445 (Current Rate) = $2247USD you would break even on the miner itself.. without factoring power costs..

Unless my calculations are off this is quite depressing
The numbers look even worse for the Spondoolies group buy that just finished also

Of course if the BTC decides to rise then these figures become much more favourable...