Topic: Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction? (Read 4869 times)

tomorrow there will be a shit storm in Cyprus with the bankrun. will be interesting to watch...

agreed.

still waiting for this cypriot drama to play out and maintain the idea that its the "media" attention driving the price and not "actual" deposits. add to the fact that we're approaching $100 / BTC as well as 1 billion market cap and there's still major "mainstream" media bait to send this price skyrocketing.

i'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be very much downside risk here and there's currently a strong trading wall at $95.
I for one am still very bullish and putting my fiat where my mouth is

Your right, went back and calculated it ($64.46 opening, $52 low = 25% drop). Thanks!  Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble. 

That was a 24% drop, no?

The Cypriot issue was just good press and got Bitcoins in many people's radar screen (in Europe and the U.S.).  Has anybody done any research to see if Cyprus has the infrastructure for it's citizens to buy Bitcoins.  They are a small country and probably don't have a middle money service like Dwolla or bitInstand and if they do, how much are their fees? They almost revolted over a 6.95% tax, after successfully defeating that, I think that they are not going to want to pay 5% in fees (bitIstand) just to keep their money safe. 

I think that returns are the main force behind last week and this week cash inflows. The one week return though Tuesday at midnight was 32.74% (closing 3/19/13- $59.14, 3/26 - $78.50 : based on closing prices as listed at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ ).  I have not seen a news story about any returns this week which really surprised me.  I think the media missed that the price fell 40% in less than 24 hours and was fully recovered by Sunday night.  This should of been major news because it debunks the fallacy that the recent rise of the price of Bitcoins was/is a bubble. No bubble can withstand being hit by a hammer and not break and a 40% drop in price is a very big hammer.     

LOL, no, I mean everybody was right when they said that the banks opening wasn't going to directly effect the bitcoin markets all that much.

what do you mean? are the banks now open?

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

The momentum continued, mostly unchanged after a bit of a dip over the weekend.  We finally broke $80 US today, which we were hovering around for a while, so that was no huge surprise.  There wasn't some ridiculously huge 50% spike in value when Cypriots all ran to spend their last Euro on bitcoins.

Moral of the story:  Individuals in the speculation forum might be crazy, but if you poll opinions the wisdom of the crowd seems to be pretty good here.

I bank run starting in Cyprus when those banks reopen and a spreading to other markets such as Italy, Spain could be in the cards

So that's why the Kremlin didn't jump in to bail them out, LOL.  They didn't have any assets left in the banks to protect.

We'll see, I guess.  I tend toward a bit more cynicism than that.

Russian to banker:  "You want to make a big mistake or a little mistake?"

Banker:  "What's the little mistake?"

Russian:  "You conveniently forget to put any restrictions at all on your branches in London and Russia."

Banker:  "Hmmm.  And the big mistake?"

Russian:  "That's a little more... personal."

Not really true.  There are limits on withdrawals.  They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit.   You cant pull money out past zero. 

yeah, since i heard rumors of a 30% tax on the largest depositors, i have been patiently waiting for this to happen. americans know all too well from our recent wall street fiascoes that the rich NEVER lose. the system is so pathetic. those claiming FUD should realize that this extends way past cyprus, and will almost certainly ripple throughout the eu and beyond. and once this "debt haircut" precedent is set (whatever the outcome may be) there is almost certain to be "real" fear by the citizens of any country in slightest bit of financial troubles.

i really don't believe the recent btc surge is a direct result of any new (or potential) cyprus / russian deposits; but more likely from all the worldwide press coverage that is introducing bitcoin (as a wealth storage mechanism) for the first time to the mainstream population. at this point, any mention of bitcoin (that doesn't reference drugs or gambling) is bound to have positive effect on the price.

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:


Amazing, if true.

My sneaking suspicion is that those banks won't open at all.

They're only increasing the probability of a run, and they have to know that.

Cypriot banks won't open till Thursday

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyprus-eu-imf-agree-draft-002707985.html

Are there any street numbers available for arbitrage?

Again, why are people in this thread being so simplistic? It's the same kind of argument that spoils the debate on global warming, or GM crops.

Yes, the Cyprus situation will have a net positive effect on Bitcoin.

But no, that doesn't mean that it is a significant direct effect from people in Cyprus withdrawing their cash and putting it into BTC.

BTC will benefit indirectly from a slight loss in confidence in the Euro. I expect this will initially come from existing BTC adopters, but their enthusiasm will bring on board new adopters too.

So -- it's positive for Bitcoin, but the world isn't as small and simple as people are thinking.

What is interesting to see is how fungible Euros are. By this I mean what premium black market will dictate for German Euros vs Cypriotic Euros.

Well not really.  It is not THEY who are coming for your bank account.  It is that banks are not always safe due to poor investment choices.

While it has been clearly spelled out in detailed news stories, few people seem to understand what happened in Cyprus.  The money was LOST due to bad PRIVATE bank decisions.  The government is doing a (poor) job of cleaning things up, but the money was already lost.  It has been gone for a while actually. 

Cyprus money will have little effect on bitcoin.  Maybe as the terms become more clear, others in the weaker EU countries may start to think about bitcoin and that will have more of an impact.  Cyprus is a small country and depositors are not going to get easy access to their money even if they wanted to buy bitcoins.  

This x 100
I can only cocur that cyprus has validated all the tinfoil hats from being conspiracy nuts to potentially credible

The international commuinty now has irrevockable evidence they will come for your bank account

Very nice that you clarify...

People have tried to make believe that Cyprus have done something to do directly with the btc recent rise and thats not real. Reality is a little bit less optimistic, what in reality happened is that people is speculating that Cyprus WILL HAVE IN THE FUTURE something to do with bitcoin and are desperately buying now thinking that when people in Cyprus begin to buy bitcoins price will explode.

Its called a bubble.

Very good for you to wait for stabilization, very few newbies have that reasoning. Im proud of you.

Every price above $15 has been pure speculation, there is no support on anything above $47, even from $25 to $40 there is no big supports either. Im sure price will eventually be below $20 before continuing to rise, if that doesnt happen, then bitcoin will fail miserably when less people expect it.

I didn't mean to spread FUD at all.  I was interested in seeing what the community here thought about what would happen when the Cypriot banks open.  When the Cyprus situation blew up last week, before we knew the banks would be closed for so long, I remember a lot of posts on the bitcoin subreddit saying "it will be interesting to see what happens when the banks reopen," then the price shot up another $20 US or so over the next few days.  Add to that the mainstream press discovering bitcoin and saying that Cyprus is driving the bitcoin boom and well... this seems like it might be a useful conversation to have.

Me, I'm new to this and I'm still wrapping my head around how the market moves.  I can't forecast this at all, but I'm guessing that other people here can.

If anything this thread is removing some FUD.  I don't see a single person here saying that they expect everybody in Cyprus to convert fully to bitcoin and drive the price up over $100 US in a day or two.  That makes sense to me, because I wasn't really buying the whole Cyprus is driving all the gains story either.  Like I said, though, I'm new, so I'm not really in a good position to forecast.

Full disclosure:  I own no bitcoins, bitcoin derivatives or cryptocurrency assets at all right now.  Today I plan to make a Linux partition with TrueCrypt, install the software and buy some BTC in order to buy VPN service with bitcoin because my current VPN provider is not that great, but I don't plan to invest until I've watched the volatility recede and have a deeper understanding of what I'm buying.

You contradict yourself in your post...

You accept people will not have access to move their money in big quantities...
Cypriots have been for more than a week without access to their money, and you are saying that the first thing they will do is go a buy a currency that not much people understand yet, and on top of that you say that they will do it as soon as they have their money in their pocket (as of tomorrow??) WTF!

People have bills to pay, they have families to feed, they have mortgages to pay... not everyone has extra money to experiment on this new cryptocurrency... Im sure more than 90% of the people wont get it even if you explain it to them carefully.

STOP THE FUD! You are making a lot of people believe something that is not real... if Cyprus bank issue will have an impact in bitcoin it will be long term... years will pass first before big herds come and use bitcoin as a bank.

There is speculation that wealthy bank depositors have already withdrawn all their money from Cyprus.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

That leaves people with over 100k euro who potentially want to move their wealth, any any guaranteed deposit holders who are fearful and want to move their funds too.  A much smaller market for bitcoins, but some none the less.

Follow Zeroday's posts in this thread, starting here.

Not with all of by a long shot. In a time of crisis it only makes more sense to cut out needless expenses.

I also go to cash only mode tomorrow morning.

Be realistic, if you just had some of your money stolen from you, will you run to some new kid of the block currency, with some potential, but also with a large risk of losing all? Burnt with a little loss, I think many people would just stash whatever they can salvage from their accounts either in paper or (smarter ones) in gold. Not online, sorry, even though it makes sense to you and me, but not to a scared herd.

Karl "I piss on Bitcoin" Denninger has been writing accurate analyzes of the situation in Europe for a while, although he refuses to point out the obvious solution way for people who might be affected to escape.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219106

https://twitter.com/BBCTimWillcox
 
Tim Willcox ‏@BBCTimWillcox 17m
#cyprus
State tv says Bank of Cyprus and Laiki to stay shut until Thursday. Other banks to open tomorrow

I'd imagine the rich accounts hit in Cyprus could also look this way too after getting slammed with a hit at all.  But true as was said, we can watch other countries' actions as being telling.  Cyprus started a precedent that really, should have never come to be, and that's scary.

They very well can head our way. They can withdraw 100 EUR a day from their bank accounts and buy Bitcoin in an Euro cost averaging way. One can build a decent Bitcoin portfolio by buying 100 EUR worth of Bitcoin a day even with current prices.

Finally someone who understands the situation fully

Don't look toward Cyprus in the coming days.  Look toward Bitcoin adoption in Spain and Italy.  That's where the real impact of the situation in Cyprus will land.

Absolutely. With the capital restrictions and withdrawal limits I don't think it will be the Cypriots themselves heading our way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9951494/Cash-rationed-in-Cyprus-after-eurozone-inflicts-losses-on-biggest-bank.html

It's too late for the people of Cyprus, their money is in the system and it will only be released when the government have took what they need to pay their European owners. At this point the secured bailout will bring a form of stability to the country.

People in Spain, Greece, Portugal and perhaps to a lesser extent Italy will be unsettled wondering if maybe they're next.

Anyone in Cyprus, what's the boots-on-the-ground report?

I wouldn't put too much stock in the news reports on this topic. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21916102

Me to, going to visit my bank when it opens this morning and get rid of any of my European stocks and zero my accounts except what i need to pay my bills.

Funny I sound like my gandma when I asked her about banks as a kid.

Any good suggestions for reliable stocks or other assets? (I'm not looking for high risk high return ones)

Is Asia good?

it could take a few weeks for people to learn about bitcoin and actually get to a point where they can buy it, i doubt there will be an immediate avalanche

Woops, my mistake about the bank opening tomorrow.  I fixed the thread title and first post to be more accurate.

yep.

1. Everyone now knows that no deposit over 100k is safe in EU.
2. Everyone makes damn sure that all their deposits are below 100k.
3. Banksters want another trillion.
4.

The Cyprus news is important for Bitcoin, but it won't be this simplistic; No-one is going to drink the kool-aid that much. The effect will be a gradual acknowledgement of the lack of safety of traditional savings methods.

Furthermore people who have all their eggs in one basket (in a Cypriot bank), and are appalled by the EU move, are unlikely to move all their eggs into a speculative currency.

However, this is a good thing. Overall, the news is massive, and has a long, positive tail for Bitcoin. It will improve buying pressure for many months, if not years, and will speed adoption.

Only if there's a newsworthy bank run. It's not Cypriots, it's everyone else.

Cyprus banks wont reopen until Tuesday.

Actually, no. Nobody expects any serious immediate cash flow into Bitcoin from Cypriots.

I guess some expectations of continuing interest from Russians, Canadians, French, British, Italian, Spanish, New Zealanders, Australians and others are not unreasonable.

What is expected is another working week of capital inflows into mtgox and other exchanges.

Cyprus is just like a litmus test that shows true intention of the banking cartel. What happens with that yellow or blue piece of litmus paper after the test is done? That is irrelevant.

I think Monday is an holiday in Cyprus.

EDIT : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_War_of_Independence

EDIT:  I'm sorry, the original title of this thread was misleading.  I didn't know tomorrow is a holiday in Cyprus.  It looks like the banks will reopen Tuesday.  I edited the title and the post to reflect this.  That said...

---

The banks in Cyprus probably open on Tuesday.

Quick background:  We have had a huge BTC boom over the past week or so, and many people think the boom is a run up in anticipation of this event.  Many of the big depositors in Cyprus won't be able to get at their money, and the smaller depositors are going to have to deal with withdrawal restrictions and difficult international transfers.  That said, many people are hoping that Cypriots will probably start buying bitcoins as soon as they can, which will hopefully happen on Tuesday.

The million BTC question:  What does this mean for the value of bitcoin on the exchanges on Tuesday?

• Up, vindicating the investors who were buying for the past week or so?
• Down, when everybody is let down when nobody on Cyprus buys bitcoins for whatever reason?
• No change?  That would mean that the current run continues, unaffected either way, drawing questions about what is causing the run up in the BTC price.

Sure, making predictions like this right before the big event can make you look stupid... or it can make you look like a genius.

Care to try your luck?