The frankenstein NYC 2MB+segwit HF does NOT fix the covert ASICBOOST scam which is the last thing Jihad Wu wants to lose.
The only way to fix this mess is by means of softfork segwit. Whoever opposes to softwork segwit is under Jihad Wu's paycheck.
If segwit is not activated before august 1st, UASF will kick in and then the rest of the miners, merchants, and users will have to choose between ASICBOOSTcoin and Bitcoin (with segwit activated).
I speculate that you are correct. I've posted some questions and comments here and there to try to get someone to convince me that your observation is wrong, but haven't gotten many responses yet.
I hope it's wrong. But if it's correct, here is how the future is going to play out:
1. UASF will activate August 1. A chain split will occur, into "JihanCoin" (aka "ASICBoostCoin") and "CoreCoin" (aka "SegWitCoin.")
And the Battle for Bitcoin will be on!
2. Jihan, Roger Ver and company will mine on JihanCoin. At first.
... but ....
3. One way or another, it will be possible to trade JihanCoin against CoreCoin. Probably on at least one exchange, but if not, in other ways.
4. The price of CoreCoin will soar, easily into the $5k-$10k range. The value of JihanCoin will plummet. Why? Here's why:
- JihanCoin will support fewer on chain transactions than CoreCoin.
- JihanCoin will support NO off chain transactions because it will not have SegWit.
- JihanCoin will be unstable, because if its chain length is ever overtaken by CoreCoin, then all miners will immediately cease mining on JihanCoin. This danger will not apply the other way around.
- Core remains highly respected for their coding abilities.
- Jihan and Roger have lost credibility. Their arguments have been disingenuous and the coding by people in their camp has been sloppy (relatively speaking). (And don't forget that Roger assured the world that MtGox was solvent. Not directly relevant here, except on the question of soundness of judgement.)
5. Miners will realize that even with ASICBoost, they will lose money mining on JihanCoin, relative to CoreCoin. So they will redirect their miners towards pools that mine CoreCoin.
6. CoreCoin hash power will exceed that of JihanCoin, and JihanCoin will die. Pretty quickly I will imagine.
And before you know it, the Battle of Bitcoin will be over. CoreCoin will have vanquished JihanCoin.
7. Bitcoin price will continue to skyrocket because the scaling debate will be over, SegWit will be activated, and ASICBoost (which caused the scaling debate stalemate in the first place, and could in theory cause additional stalemates in the future) will be taken out of the equation.
And all will be good with the world.