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Topic: David Rosenber: Bitcoin is in a 'massive bubble' (Read 745 times)

legendary
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December 30, 2020, 06:59:09 PM
#81
It's mind-blowing to me the number of people on these boards who take economist positions and just dismiss them because they don't want to believe that someone who studies economics for a living might know more about economics than they do. Worse than that, your response shows you didn't even understand his point since your critique is you don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit, and his point is exactly that the hard-coded limit is not absolute and can be changed.  It's kind of implicit in his statement, but it's likely the hard cap limit will be changed because of future unforeseen problems with the diminishing block size. Regardless, his statement that investors "think they know but don't really know about bitcoin's supply curve" is accurate.  However, if you're going to advocate that point you have to take the flip side with gold as well.  We think we know the supply curve for gold, but future space mining could greatly alter the precious metals market in currently unforeseen ways.
I would also add one factor that can change the supply curve of gold and this is the modern philosopher's stone, I mean fairly cheap ways to get artificial gold Wink Just the limit of 21 million is one of the chips of bitcoin and one of the pillars of its existence, thanks to which all modern investment strategies are built, and David Rosenberg unfortunately did not express any serious reasons why these fundamental principles should be violated, except for his fantasies about the protocol.
legendary
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Quote
Economist David Rosenberg told Bloomberg he believes bitcoin is in a bubble and investors don't understand supply dynamics of the cryptocurrency.
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."

Bitcoin reached a record high of $23,777 on Thursday shortly after topping $20,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, marking a 20% gain over the past day. The cryptocurrency is now up over 200% year-to-date, but Rosenberg said the chart looks "absolutely crazy right now."
Bitcoin's rally comes as several institutional investors and fund managers place sky-high predictions for the coin. On Wednesday, Guggenheim's global chief investment officer, Scott Minerd, said bitcoin will surge to $400,000 based on its scarcity and value relative to gold.

Though Rosenberg raised his doubts about the scarcity of bitcoin and the thesis that only 21 million bitcoin are able to be mined. 
"Everybody seems to believe that we're going to get to that 21 million cap on the supply constraint, but there's really nothing in the protocol to suggest that the supply of bitcoin can't go up once we hit that limit," the economist said.
While investors do know about the supply curve of gold with certainty, Rosenberg said that investors just "think they know" but don't really know about bitcoin's supply curve.

He added that the last time bitcoin behaved with such a "speculative fervor," it suffered massive disappointments in the months to follow. Bitcoin bulls say that 2020's rally is different because of the institutional inflows.

From: https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-bubble-david-rosenberg-supply-mining-cryptocurrency-outlook-record-high-2020-12-1029903485

It is important to note that Rosenberg identified the housing market bubble in 2005 right even before things started going south in 2008.

As experienced as Rosenberg might be in the field of economics, I don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit for bitcoin's supply. He might be right that we will never know what holds bitcoin's future should 21M coins be mined, but those values wouldn't even be achieved in a hundred years literally. Also, its specified scarcity makes bitcoin's value stand where it is, and if someone is going to change it just because it does not meet the need of people around the world, its price or valuation would be severely affected.

Stay in the path of centralization and easy-to-control assets for too long and you would really practice distrust on, and undermine decentralization and its concept. For more than a decade, no substantial changes on the max supply cap and other things connected to it has been made, plus no kill switch for bitcoin and its entirety is ever present to raise such questions IMO.

It's mind-blowing to me the number of people on these boards who take economist positions and just dismiss them because they don't want to believe that someone who studies economics for a living might know more about economics than they do. Worse than that, your response shows you didn't even understand his point since your critique is you don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit, and his point is exactly that the hard-coded limit is not absolute and can be changed.  It's kind of implicit in his statement, but it's likely the hard cap limit will be changed because of future unforeseen problems with the diminishing block size. Regardless, his statement that investors "think they know but don't really know about bitcoin's supply curve" is accurate.  However, if you're going to advocate that point you have to take the flip side with gold as well.  We think we know the supply curve for gold, but future space mining could greatly alter the precious metals market in currently unforeseen ways.
sr. member
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Are they not doing enough study for them to think that it's a massive bubble, fiat's value is based on trust in who created it and so does Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is much better than fiat now because Bitcoin reputation is trusted by people around the world, the bubble issue should have been gone long ago.
hero member
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He is absolutely right, Bitcoin is bubble and those who are already in will not believe this, they will tag you as anti Bitcoin and at the same time, those complaining currently will be happy if they are the one who bought bitcoin at bottom with this sweet profit.
We will always complain about something especially when it's not in our favour, that's why I try possible best with ant influencers with negative energy with Bitcoin. Somebody should try to setup a wallet for that man any time bitcoin goes below $10k, he would keep quiet for eternity ones he is in profit.  Grin Grin Grin


I could accept bitcoin criticism if it was done fairly but it is not which is why I do not listen to people like him, when bitcoin crashed in March many economists were declaring bitcoin dead... again, then we recovered and went above the 10k level and remained there for some time then those people argued that bitcoin was going nowhere, now bitcoin is above 26k and the problem is that is in a bubble, do you see the pattern? They criticize bitcoin no matter what which makes it clear they are just attacking bitcoin and not giving a fair assessment of the situation at hand.
legendary
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Let it be a bubble, nothing to worry just try to enjoy the good out of it. People are much obsessed of different narrations that come out of different people. Whenever there is growth, everyone tries to relate the same with something else. The same is taking place with bitcoin, and in my personal thinking don't try to find reason, just live the present leaving the past.
legendary
Activity: 3766
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Nah, why bother when we aren't alive during that time when the 21M Bitcoin is mined already? You may be lucky to be alive during that time but I still don't believe that the hard coded 21M cap limit of Bitcoin will be added, unless if Satoshi himself shows up and rewrite those codes. Anyone can say whatever they want but the pattern of Bitcoin market is almost just the same if we look at the chart.

Agreed. The controlled supply principle is there for a reason. If you change the limit on total supply, then Bitcoin will be more like fiat currency. I know that some of the miners are interested in doing this, but it is never going to happen. And some of the noobs are still confused about the mining reward. A significant section of the mining reward comes from the transaction fee, and it will be there even after 2140. In short, the mining operation is never going to be stopped.
member
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IMO everyone is entitled to their own opinion about bitcoin, but I don't believe it's possible to add more bitcoins to the total supply, we'll  let's just wait till the 21 million bitcoins are totally mined, if there's any way to add more to it then the price of bitcoin will crash, because investors will no longer trust it, nevertheless he might be right about saying bitcoin is a bubble because of how the price of bitcoin fluctuates it could go $2k+ up in a day and the next moment it could dump $5k, maybe when the total bitcoin has been mined we can see more price stability.
full member
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Currently I would understand why some people say this, normally I wouldn't agree with them because they are doing this out of anger that they missed out,
me too . I understand the guy why he say this thing . He has an experienced and some background but others that have said this before that Bitcoin is a bubble are mostly random guys that don't have a reason on why they say that .

 The guy here didn't say that he missed the btc in its early price so he isn't angry but even me I won't still totally agree with what he is saying because I just can't accept the fact that btc or if btc is a bubble .
legendary
Activity: 2660
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It is important to note that Rosenberg identified the housing market bubble in 2005 right even before things started going south in 2008.

As experienced as Rosenberg might be in the field of economics, I don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit for bitcoin's supply. He might be right that we will never know what holds bitcoin's future should 21M coins be mined, but those values wouldn't even be achieved in a hundred years literally. Also, its specified scarcity makes bitcoin's value stand where it is, and if someone is going to change it just because it does not meet the need of people around the world, its price or valuation would be severely affected.

Stay in the path of centralization and easy-to-control assets for too long and you would really practice distrust on, and undermine decentralization and its concept. For more than a decade, no substantial changes on the max supply cap and other things connected to it has been made, plus no kill switch for bitcoin and its entirety is ever present to raise such questions IMO.
Currently I would understand why some people say this, normally I wouldn't agree with them because they are doing this out of anger that they missed out, let's face it there were people who called bitcoin a bubble when we broke over a thousand dollars, let alone 27 thousand dollars, so there has been a lot of people who called bitcoin a bubble, but this is different.

Right now we are about 4x from the start of the year and we are about 9x higher than the bottom we reached, those are some huge numbers. Which is why I have to say maaaaaybe we could be in a bubble right now, I am not happy to say that, I think bitcoin has merit and it should go up, but when things go up this fast this quickly I start to think that maybe they are in a bubble as well. Of course what difference does a bull run and a bubble has is unknown, it is only the afterwards that shows the difference and not during.
member
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Might be true, might be wrong, but this ain't the first time that some will say the same exact thing, whenever bitcoin surges to a new all time high it's always bubble that's about to burst for others, I can't make a decision because of one man prediction, what I believe is volatility isn't bubble
legendary
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This. Bitcoin has crashed many times before and risen again but that hasn't stopped it from moving forward. Though I doubt it could crash to under 15-20K under current market conditions or under 10K in bad market conditions. What is more concerning is the possibility for price manipulation if large players sold all at once.

Bitcoin is a new asset class. You can't even buy it at the bank yet. There is plenty of room to grow.

Bitcoin is susceptible to mass-selloffs, because a large part of its circulating supply is being held by individual investors. And when compared to institutional investors, these investors are more susceptible to panic selling. This is the reason why the prices crash by 80% or more, whenever a correction happens. But the situation has changed now, with the entry of mainstream investors and Wall Street giants. That should add more stability to the exchange rates.
sr. member
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A lot of people in the past have said thatbitciin is a bubble, but several dumps and crashes yet bitcoin had never even reached a critical point whereas most commodities did in the past. Heck, it even went down to $7000 and jumped right back in to itsregular pricing last March and not a lot of people batted an eye. That's because the real bubble is the vibe of the people towardsyour asset. If they are in for a quick buck, then best believe me that your coin is not gonna last long.
newbie
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Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.

This. Bitcoin has crashed many times before and risen again but that hasn't stopped it from moving forward. Though I doubt it could crash to under 15-20K under current market conditions or under 10K in bad market conditions. What is more concerning is the possibility for price manipulation if large players sold all at once.

Bitcoin is a new asset class. You can't even buy it at the bank yet. There is plenty of room to grow.

We must not forget one simple truth - bitcoin, like the entire crypto market, today there is a purely speculative market, moreover, in fact, it is not provided with anything other than speculative demand. And in the first half of 2021 (+/-), the situation in 2018 with the market fall will repeat itself. Those who manipulated and cheated the market will receive income at the level of the financial ability of "home investors" to purchase the rising bitcoin, after which the flow of finance will end. Then there will be another phase of depression, the accumulation of fiat funds, and a new bubble. And this will continue until the crypto market becomes part of the real market, with a real, not inflated, cost

Good analysis. Every time bitcoin rises and then crashes it loses a little bit of faith. After the crash of 1929 people didn't want to invest in the stock market for decades.

In the early years bitcoin bubbles affected only a small number of people but as time went on those bubbles started to affect larger and larger numbers of people.
sr. member
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I have talked to some of my friends, who are saying that Bitcoin is now overpriced. The reason given by them is that the exchange rates have gone up by around 180% during the last 3 months. But why concentrate only on this 3 month period? If you take a look at the combined cryptocurrency market capitalization, it can be seen that the current levels are still around 15% lower than the peak level attained in 2018 January. And this is despite the massive increase in user base and mainstream adoption. I would say that Bitcoin at current levels is rather underpriced.
legendary
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Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.

This. Bitcoin has crashed many times before and risen again but that hasn't stopped it from moving forward. Though I doubt it could crash to under 15-20K under current market conditions or under 10K in bad market conditions. What is more concerning is the possibility for price manipulation if large players sold all at once.

Bitcoin is a new asset class. You can't even buy it at the bank yet. There is plenty of room to grow.

We must not forget one simple truth - bitcoin, like the entire crypto market, today there is a purely speculative market, moreover, in fact, it is not provided with anything other than speculative demand. And in the first half of 2021 (+/-), the situation in 2018 with the market fall will repeat itself. Those who manipulated and cheated the market will receive income at the level of the financial ability of "home investors" to purchase the rising bitcoin, after which the flow of finance will end. Then there will be another phase of depression, the accumulation of fiat funds, and a new bubble. And this will continue until the crypto market becomes part of the real market, with a real, not inflated, cost
newbie
Activity: 8
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Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.

This. Bitcoin has crashed many times before and risen again but that hasn't stopped it from moving forward. Though I doubt it could crash to under 15-20K under current market conditions or under 10K in bad market conditions. What is more concerning is the possibility for price manipulation if large players sold all at once.

Bitcoin is a new asset class. You can't even buy it at the bank yet. There is plenty of room to grow.
hero member
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Everytime bitcoin pumped, experts will always say that it's a bubble, and when bitcoin dumped they will be more convince that they are right, but when it pumped again, i think it's not right anymore for them to think that bitcoin is still a bubble as bitcoin survive and it's supported by big institution now.

Well, we are all entitled with our own opinion, some experts thinks bitcoin is a bubble, some think there's an adoption happening here, so it's up to us which side we will choose to believe.

in the long run, either of the two.. massive adoption or massive bubble. Only time can tell.
member
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I wish that the seasoned Rosenberg's forecast does not come true. Although he should have taken into account the max supply cap of bitcoin, the scarcity and its technology.
Rosenberg has shown skepticism which shows that his appreciation is not fully supported.
Now Bitcoin is at its best. Great changes are happening in the world, leaders have realized that they must evolve and this is the reason for the creation of their own digital currencies because finance needs to adapt to the time we live in and that awakening was thanks to Bitcoin.
hero member
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Bitcoin = Financial freedom
snip~
This is not correct reasoning... Just look at the dotcoms bubble, which burst just like the Bitcoin bubble in 2017... Some companies like Google, Amazon, eBay and so on have recovered and grown in value... About the same situation we see now with Bitcoin! Wink
I am talking about the bitcoin not cryptocurrency in general, so you can't call the dump as bubble burst because no one can deny that prices recovered faster in no time compared to the big companies you are talking and still no end to be seen for that recovery.

It has nothing to do with the recovery time... There are certain phases of the market that can last for years or decades, but the cycles do not change from the duration! So bitcoin burst in 2017 and recovered in 2020!
And I'm sure another bubble burst and another recovery awaits us... Just look at the chart to see how many bubbles there were...
As long as the prices are recovering then there is no risk involved with it right? Why we can't take it as normal behaviour of bitcoin when every kind of investment schemes hold their own volatile phase ranges!
legendary
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David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.

In fairness though, Bitcoin's future economic viability is purely theoretical. We're all just hoping it works. Right now, Bitcoin is extremely inflationary, and that's why miners have such a strong interest in securing the network. In the future when the mining subsidy is no longer relevant, the mining economy may look very different, and accordingly so may the security and viability of the network.

He's not wrong when he says the supply limit can't be changed. Consider things like the DAO fork in Ethereum, and then consider that lack of mining incentives could be an existential threat to Bitcoin in the future. If so, then a hard fork that further inflates the 21M coin supply is a real possibility.

We're all just theorizing when you get down to it.......

Yes, we are fantasizing ... However, the rise in bitcoin prices over the past 10 years is also fantastic!

Let's pretend that Bitcoin is the world's reserve currency ... In this case, mining isn't just about making a profit.  In this case, full nodes and control over Bitcoin mining is a precondition for governments and large corporations to issue money (If I host a full Bitcoin node, I have the option to issue my own money).

At present, states are interested in controlling the Internet.  In the future, it is possible that large corporations and states will seek to control the mining of bitcoins.  This will be as important as having your own army and control over the oil fields.  

Bitcoin can become a strategic resource.  This is its value.  There are not so many common human values ​​in the world.  Bitcoin is one of them.
I just had to continue the thread on this important discussion. As @exstasie pointed out, the arguments from the economist are not without basis. The issue of a sustainable fee-market is something that most bitcoin well wishers struggle with.

I wouldn't say that things will go as far as lifting the mining cap. Though, how the future will eveolve regarding decentralized governance is a question very much up in the air. The current system of reserve banks, powerful governments and fixed borders may well be challenged by Decentralized systems like Bitcoin in the coming century. The struggle can be as revolutionary as the ones between for Democracy and free markets.

One thing is for sure that in the long run, Bitcoin's future will not simply be decided by "code". There is always the human governance element and nothing is off the table.
hero member
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There are certain phases of the market that can last for years or decades, but the cycles do not change from the duration! So bitcoin burst in 2017 and recovered in 2020!
Depending on the market it is true, the BTCitcoin market usually recovers every 4 years and it coincides with the halving as well and it is a perfect timing and i do not think that we will see any major changes in that aspect.

And I'm sure another bubble burst and another recovery awaits us... Just look at the chart to see how many bubbles there were...
It is how the market will perform and we need correction and this time around as the investors are pouring in millions every time there is a correction we should expect a massive burst when all these investors decide to book their profit.

hero member
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God, save BTC!
snip~
This is not correct reasoning... Just look at the dotcoms bubble, which burst just like the Bitcoin bubble in 2017... Some companies like Google, Amazon, eBay and so on have recovered and grown in value... About the same situation we see now with Bitcoin! Wink
I am talking about the bitcoin not cryptocurrency in general, so you can't call the dump as bubble burst because no one can deny that prices recovered faster in no time compared to the big companies you are talking and still no end to be seen for that recovery.

It has nothing to do with the recovery time... There are certain phases of the market that can last for years or decades, but the cycles do not change from the duration! So bitcoin burst in 2017 and recovered in 2020!
And I'm sure another bubble burst and another recovery awaits us... Just look at the chart to see how many bubbles there were...
hero member
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This is the best part of the interview
Quote
You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it
I bet Rosenber knows nothing about Satoshi and his decision to stay anonymous.
LOL yea, they think everything that's released by some anonym is bad. We have open-source community growing so much in 2020 and some big portion of them are just anonymous with some internet nickname and as long as their existence gives many benefit to the whole world like how bitcoin has given us an option to easily send money across continents without the constraint of middlemen. it's just wrong to think something is bad just because it comes out of anonmy persona.
hero member
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These economists are much connected to the financial systems and weren't knowledged about the technology associated development and progress. This is why the economist hasn't got a clear information about mining process as well as about the flawless functioning of the network. Whenever something is bullish these people frame this as bubble to create panic mind among the people who are already in fear.

Yeah that is true, and also there are so many economist out there. You will probably find one for every argument you want to win. But how credible is he, can we really trust him or maybe he his just promoting his own agenda? Economists with strong ties to the financial world could be acting in the interest of others. For me bitcoins are not a bubble.
hero member
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Well, in some ways he’s kind of right and in some he’s totally wrong. Yes, there are a lot of people that are investing their money in Bitcoin without fully understanding it and like he said they can’t explain it to him and give him reasons why he should, well he’s not wrong in the part.

Yeah, those are noobs who think that bitcoin is a get rich scheme, of course they are totally wrong with that mind set because its not like that.

But the thing is that they can learn their lessons here and become a successful investor.

But that doesn’t he’s right, because he too seems like he doesn’t fully know about Bitcoin, he still needs to educate himself more on it. And as for the 21 million limit on bitcoin, we are forgetting that more that people are buying it , the more the value for each BTC will be increasing, and let’s not forget it can be broken down to fractions like Satoshi, and mBTC and uBTC.

Just a typical hater of bitcoin, but we all know that there are haters before who completely made a U-turn and started to invest on the market. So maybe in the next coming years he will realised he is wrong and join the bandwagon.
hero member
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Well, in some ways he’s kind of right and in some he’s totally wrong. Yes, there are a lot of people that are investing their money in Bitcoin without fully understanding it and like he said they can’t explain it to him and give him reasons why he should, well he’s not wrong in the part.

But that doesn’t he’s right, because he too seems like he doesn’t fully know about Bitcoin, he still needs to educate himself more on it. And as for the 21 million limit on bitcoin, we are forgetting that more that people are buying it , the more the value for each BTC will be increasing, and let’s not forget it can be broken down to fractions like Satoshi, and mBTC and uBTC.
hero member
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Bitcoin = Financial freedom
snip~
This is not correct reasoning... Just look at the dotcoms bubble, which burst just like the Bitcoin bubble in 2017... Some companies like Google, Amazon, eBay and so on have recovered and grown in value... About the same situation we see now with Bitcoin! Wink
I am talking about the bitcoin not cryptocurrency in general, so you can't call the dump as bubble burst because no one can deny that prices recovered faster in no time compared to the big companies you are talking and still no end to be seen for that recovery.
hero member
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We respect the guy, but no one has seen crypto, its fairly young market and the data is only small to say that we are in a bubble or not. What we have is the 4 year cycle, last time is 2017 bubble. But with the market situation right now, I would say that we're not yet at the peak, there's a lot of leg room and spike. With that said, I would think that we are just starting to see the formation of the bubble, the whole 2021 will be the scene whether we can reach the top and collapse or continue to see the price going up till 2022.
hero member
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God, save BTC!
Expert economist doesn't mean he is right with all their predictions and basically it is too hard for many of the economist to a fastest growing assets like bitcoin because they need time to get used to the conditions. I am following one of a popular economist in my native language he is very good in making analysis and giving investment ideal about traditional investments but still he says that bitcoin is created using computer so we shouldn't trust with our money. Cheesy

Maybe he's partly right? Because bitcoin at any price will do its tasks... And bitcoin's original purpose, in my opinion, is to transmit value...
And speaking of the bubble, economists are right too... For example, the 2017 bubble... Now we are on the cusp of a new bubble...
IMO Wink
Well once bubble popped it won't regain its previous position but bitcoin managed to reach new all time high prices after every bearing trend is making it different from bubble.

This is not correct reasoning... Just look at the dotcoms bubble, which burst just like the Bitcoin bubble in 2017... Some companies like Google, Amazon, eBay and so on have recovered and grown in value... About the same situation we see now with Bitcoin! Wink
legendary
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He is absolutely right, Bitcoin is bubble and those who are already in will not believe this, they will tag you as anti Bitcoin and at the same time, those complaining currently will be happy if they are the one who bought bitcoin at bottom with this sweet profit.
We will always complain about something especially when it's not in our favour, that's why I try possible best with ant influencers with negative energy with Bitcoin. Somebody should try to setup a wallet for that man any time bitcoin goes below $10k, he would keep quiet for eternity ones he is in profit.  Grin Grin Grin
A bubble that will be in favor to you once you believe on it, Bitcoin is too volatile and maybe this is why many says Bitcoin is a bubble and they are just creating panic. Predictions is normal and we have to believe on our own prediction and don’t just listen to anyone, if you see great potential with Bitcoin then you have nothing to worry about what people say about Bitcoin, its just a matter of how much risk you can take.
Bitcoin is already so often called a bubble by all sorts of experts for its not so long history, so there is no certainty that such statements are unlikely to cause any panic among investors, I will even say more that investors do not react to them at all Wink A real panic among investors can be caused by completely different words coming from government officials and some events that can directly affect bitcoin.
legendary
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It is important to note that Rosenberg identified the housing market bubble in 2005 right even before things started going south in 2008.
Rosenberg identified the housing bubble as he could understand the facts surrounding it but if you look carefully what he said he does not even understand how mining is done which means he does not literally understand the basic structure of bitcoin and how can he comment about a financial structure he does not understand  Tongue.

I also not arguing the fact that the cryptocurrency market is a speculative market and people invest heavily thinking of making a huge profit and you need to expect the fact that the market could go down anytime when these big fund houses decide to sell off the coins at one go. Even if we have a huge correction the market will continue to grow and we are expected to see the same rally after every halving.
full member
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He is absolutely right, Bitcoin is bubble and those who are already in will not believe this, they will tag you as anti Bitcoin and at the same time, those complaining currently will be happy if they are the one who bought bitcoin at bottom with this sweet profit.
We will always complain about something especially when it's not in our favour, that's why I try possible best with ant influencers with negative energy with Bitcoin. Somebody should try to setup a wallet for that man any time bitcoin goes below $10k, he would keep quiet for eternity ones he is in profit.  Grin Grin Grin


A bubble that will be in favor to you once you believe on it, Bitcoin is too volatile and maybe this is why many says Bitcoin is a bubble and they are just creating panic. Predictions is normal and we have to believe on our own prediction and don’t just listen to anyone, if you see great potential with Bitcoin then you have nothing to worry about what people say about Bitcoin, its just a matter of how much risk you can take.
full member
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He is absolutely right, Bitcoin is bubble and those who are already in will not believe this, they will tag you as anti Bitcoin and at the same time, those complaining currently will be happy if they are the one who bought bitcoin at bottom with this sweet profit.
We will always complain about something especially when it's not in our favour, that's why I try possible best with ant influencers with negative energy with Bitcoin. Somebody should try to setup a wallet for that man any time bitcoin goes below $10k, he would keep quiet for eternity ones he is in profit.  Grin Grin Grin

hero member
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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!
It really is funny to hear those statements from an economist.

IMO, you can smell that there’s an agenda behind it.  But he has a point when he mentioned the part on how Bitcoin has been developed and might the anonymous identity really is grey.  However, I really find it hilarious when he stated about the mining process.  Just like wait, you’re an economist, you do a complex process, you should know how the system works and study it.

There are some points that I tend to agree with him and he was right, probably those investors now didn't think about the long term investment, they want a quick profit, they just only know the basic of how Bitcoin will work.  But they don't deeply understand the whole system.
That is what happens when you have a bunch of people being paid to not understand something, they try to use their credentials to intimidate people and make them listen to them but for people that actually take the time to research stuff by themselves credentials mean nothing, if you are right you are right, if you are wrong you are wrong, and he is in the wrong here, but this is nothing new, when the Internet was at its early stages there were a lot of people that thought it will disappear and that the average person will never use it, and now look at us and I think something similar may happen to bitcoin in the future.
legendary
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Why only bitcoin?
The entire cryptocurrency market is a little more than 100% speculative. And until this market "lands" and is not transformed into real solutions for real markets, it will remain speculative. Therefore, the waves from the rise / fall of the crypto market will be repeated more than once. Take today's growth - it will last another 2-4 months (+/-), after which there will be another drawdown in the crypto market, a period of "depression" and another controlled pumping of the market, withdrawal of "surplus" fiat from "home cryptoexperts"
hero member
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Bitcoin = Financial freedom
Expert economist doesn't mean he is right with all their predictions and basically it is too hard for many of the economist to a fastest growing assets like bitcoin because they need time to get used to the conditions. I am following one of a popular economist in my native language he is very good in making analysis and giving investment ideal about traditional investments but still he says that bitcoin is created using computer so we shouldn't trust with our money. Cheesy

Maybe he's partly right? Because bitcoin at any price will do its tasks... And bitcoin's original purpose, in my opinion, is to transmit value...
And speaking of the bubble, economists are right too... For example, the 2017 bubble... Now we are on the cusp of a new bubble...
IMO Wink
Well once bubble popped it won't regain its previous position but bitcoin managed to reach new all time high prices after every bearing trend is making it different from bubble.
hero member
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God, save BTC!
Expert economist doesn't mean he is right with all their predictions and basically it is too hard for many of the economist to a fastest growing assets like bitcoin because they need time to get used to the conditions. I am following one of a popular economist in my native language he is very good in making analysis and giving investment ideal about traditional investments but still he says that bitcoin is created using computer so we shouldn't trust with our money. Cheesy

Maybe he's partly right? Because bitcoin at any price will do its tasks... And bitcoin's original purpose, in my opinion, is to transmit value...
And speaking of the bubble, economists are right too... For example, the 2017 bubble... Now we are on the cusp of a new bubble...
IMO Wink
hero member
Activity: 2366
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Bitcoin = Financial freedom
Expert economist doesn't mean he is right with all their predictions and basically it is too hard for many of the economist to a fastest growing assets like bitcoin because they need time to get used to the conditions. I am following one of a popular economist in my native language he is very good in making analysis and giving investment ideal about traditional investments but still he says that bitcoin is created using computer so we shouldn't trust with our money. Cheesy
hero member
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The problem with most of these economist is that they think that the world must be viewed only through their own lens, if you don't understand something, it is not a crime to ask. If you think Bitcoin is a bubble, what else is not a bubble, what about stock market, the Gold bug has been saying Stock market collapse is coming but has made several highs this year alone.
hero member
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^ bullish Bitcoin in 2017 was a bubble, but bullish this time is different. The price of Bitcoin is slowly rising, accompanied by a lot of positive news from large companies that are getting interested in Bitcoin, hence the opinion that Bitcoin is a massive bubble is very wrong.
^ I was expecting a better opinion from an economist. A better statement that makes sense. But on this one, I really find it non-sense.
Follow-the-herd does not apply with Bitcoin, It is different. We never invite people to join us and we have independence. Mr. Rosenberg should do his research.  But yes, I would agree, the last bull has a lot of disappointments ahead of it but things go that way, and as long as it returned to the bull this year, that would be enough.
legendary
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^ bullish Bitcoin in 2017 was a bubble, but bullish this time is different. The price of Bitcoin is slowly rising, accompanied by a lot of positive news from large companies that are getting interested in Bitcoin, hence the opinion that Bitcoin is a massive bubble is very wrong.

Back then it was the altcoins which behaved more like a bubble. Even at the peak levels of 2017, Bitcoin was fairly priced. But on the other hand, there were little known altcoins, which grew to market capitalizations of tens of billions of USD almost overnight. And when the prices crashed, these shitcoins lost almost 99% of their value in a duration of few months. Fortunately this time, the altcoins are still behaving bearishly.
full member
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^ bullish Bitcoin in 2017 was a bubble, but bullish this time is different. The price of Bitcoin is slowly rising, accompanied by a lot of positive news from large companies that are getting interested in Bitcoin, hence the opinion that Bitcoin is a massive bubble is very wrong.
sr. member
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These economists are much connected to the financial systems and weren't knowledged about the technology associated development and progress. This is why the economist hasn't got a clear information about mining process as well as about the flawless functioning of the network. Whenever something is bullish these people frame this as bubble to create panic mind among the people who are already in fear.
legendary
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It really is funny to hear those statements from an economist.

IMO, you can smell that there’s an agenda behind it.  But he has a point when he mentioned the part on how Bitcoin has been developed and might the anonymous identity really is grey.  However, I really find it hilarious when he stated about the mining process.  Just like wait, you’re an economist, you do a complex process, you should know how the system works and study it.

There are some points that I tend to agree with him and he was right, probably those investors now didn't think about the long term investment, they want a quick profit, they just only know the basic of how Bitcoin will work.  But they don't deeply understand the whole system.
sr. member
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I would argue that his points are the same for most investments.  Ask people about their retirement plans and what they are invested in and how it works/what makes up that fund, etc and they will have an equal clueless answer for you.  Economist are smart dudes but it doesn't make them great financial advisors or great for financial advice.  It's similar to Warren Buffet stating that bitcoin is worthless..the guy is an investing genius but he also has his short sided biases.  He has never known much about technology period, and has even stated as such that he doesn't understand how bitcoin works.  He's wrong, period and he's biased.  Economist can be just the same.
No one is perfect!

Even if you are a popular fella came from traditional investment but doesnt mean that you do have all the scope of things that turns out that you do know everything.
You would really be making yourself look like a fool when your words turns opposite against you and those supporters will really be just seeing you as a big troll into this market.
They can call bubble all they want yet this had been a common judgement specially into those institutional investors out there

Sooner or later they would changed up their minds and will really be reconsidering on diving to this market instead.
legendary
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I would argue that his points are the same for most investments.  Ask people about their retirement plans and what they are invested in and how it works/what makes up that fund, etc and they will have an equal clueless answer for you.  Economist are smart dudes but it doesn't make them great financial advisors or great for financial advice.  It's similar to Warren Buffet stating that bitcoin is worthless..the guy is an investing genius but he also has his short sided biases.  He has never known much about technology period, and has even stated as such that he doesn't understand how bitcoin works.  He's wrong, period and he's biased.  Economist can be just the same.
sr. member
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Economist David Rosenberg told Bloomberg he believes bitcoin is in a bubble and investors don't understand supply dynamics of the cryptocurrency.
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."


Obvious David Rosenberg do no tknow anything about Bitcoin, he did not do any research so he is left in the dark understanding what Bitcoin is and how it is mine, problem with this people is, they FUD and post negative about Bitcoin when in the first place they lack knowledge on how and why was created, they are embarrassing themselves.

legendary
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Bubbles don't last for more than a few months. Even the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000 lasted for only around 2 years. Here in the case of Bitcoin, despite overwhelming adversities, the innovation has survived for 13 years. And chances are that it will survive for at least a few more decades. Now you don't call something that is around for many decades as a bubble. If that is the case, then every single investment asset will be termed as a bubble by David Rosenberg.
hero member
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Quote
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."

I like the term "follow-the-nerd".I guess that Google,Microsoft,Facebook and Tesla are the same "follow-the-nerd" scams.After all,their founders and CEOs are all nerds.
The questions about who developed Bitcoins and how BTC is mined are already answered,but this guy is just too lazy to read and too occupied with his own theories.
Yes,the Bitcoin price is in a price bubble,but the same applies to almost every other financial asset in the world.Aren't stocks in a price bubble?Isn't gold in a price bubble?
legendary
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People will claim it is bubble as long as it goes up, and people will claim they were right as long as it crashes down as well, but they do not realize that everything in traditional markets have the same type of increases and crashes as well. If we were to say that stock market is a bubble, we would be sort of right, look at the mortgage crisis of 2008 for example, before it crashed it was so high that everyone got a house, they even remortgaged their houses to get cheap money because interests were low as well, but after 2008 it crashed and it hurt everyone, not just in USA where it happened but it hurt even other nations as well.
There are tons of people who missed on the bitcoin bull and they will always call it a bubble because there are some people like me who keep saying "I wish I knew it better and kept my bitcoins" or "I wish I bought a lot back in the day" but there are also some people who says "I can never be wrong, this will die and crash and burn" because accepting otherwise would mean they have made a mistake, if they bought early and sold now they would have made a lot of money and they didn't do that so it was a mistake not to buy bitcoin early on, and they can't be wrong, they are never wrong, being wrong is not in their nature so this must be some sort of bubble. Those people who could never accept defeat and never agree that they were wrong about something will keep on saying bad stuff about bitcoin until they die, because there is no reason for them to accept they were wrong.
legendary
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People will claim it is bubble as long as it goes up, and people will claim they were right as long as it crashes down as well, but they do not realize that everything in traditional markets have the same type of increases and crashes as well. If we were to say that stock market is a bubble, we would be sort of right, look at the mortgage crisis of 2008 for example, before it crashed it was so high that everyone got a house, they even remortgaged their houses to get cheap money because interests were low as well, but after 2008 it crashed and it hurt everyone, not just in USA where it happened but it hurt even other nations as well.

So long story short if we want to call something bubble, we can call everything that grew big and crashed a bubble. I think bitcoin is a solid investment, that has good days and bad days and good days are more frequent than bad days.
hero member
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He did not bring any facts to his words, but there are also no facts from the side of the creators of bitcoin. Perhaps bitcoin will follow the path of ethereum staking, no one knows this, so it should not make such statements about what is a bubble and what is not. I am sure that there will be nothing bad with bitcoin after the last block is mined, especially before that period is very long, and in any case, the creators will come up with something.

Satoshi being anonymous is even more of a good thing than bad as how it sounded to him.

It seem to me like there is a Jaime Dimon every time there is a bullrun going on. This is like they have a barking dog everytime just resulting to more people left by this train.

copper member
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He did not bring any facts to his words, but there are also no facts from the side of the creators of bitcoin. Perhaps bitcoin will follow the path of ethereum staking, no one knows this, so it should not make such statements about what is a bubble and what is not. I am sure that there will be nothing bad with bitcoin after the last block is mined, especially before that period is very long, and in any case, the creators will come up with something.
newbie
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This is the best part of the interview
Quote
You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it
I bet Rosenber knows nothing about Satoshi and his decision to stay anonymous.
legendary
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Rosenberg might be correct that a lot of investors now
have a very basic understanding of Bitcoin, and some
none at all and as has been already mentioned not all
gold investors know how it is extracted and processed.

But, big investors now are not investing for next year or
the year after, they are looking 10, 20 years out or at the
very shortest 5 years.

There is a lot which Rosenberg doesnt say, like how the US
and EU are currently print more money as a stimulus for their
economies and how that effects the value of peoples assets. His only focus is supply.
sr. member
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Everyone on this thread is suddenly expert on bitcoin and the economy. Can someone counter argue the economist claim about bubble without being biased from either side. Pretty shitty seeing that you all circle jerk about this guy is wrong, this one too is wrong. No one seems to respect the people with different point of view. Again, counter argue the claim without saying "bitcoin is the future", "he/she doesn't know better". This one person seems to get it.

Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.
hero member
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Everything is bubble nowadays. Some says stock market is in bubble, same goes for real estate and now bitcoin maybe next crypto as a whole is in bubble when the market goes for bull run.

I'm no expert but in my opinion market correction is by no mean a bubble as long as it could reach its ATH within few years like Bitcoin did and he said that the bitcoin trend right now is just classic follow-the-herd and I definitely disagree with that. There's reason why so many online merchants out there starting to accept BTC for payment. It's not as useless as he pictures it.
legendary
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He might be an "economist" but what he is saying is just like what an average Joe is doing.
He is just speculating base on what he sees. Nothing more.

Regarding the creator that he is saying, it doesn't matter anymore because what matters is we are using Satoshi's invention. Regarding on how it is mined, yes maybe we can share some basic things regarding Bitcoin. He might be true that people right now are asking ways on how to buy Bitcoin especially those newbies but to tell that it is in a massive bubble?? I don't think that it really is. Does he think that the Bitcoin right now will have the same fate as the Tulip or the 2018 big crash Cheesy. I don't think that it will happen although corrections are inevitable, it will not be the same as the previous bubbles.
legendary
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It all comes down to questions of terminology. If in a month the price of bitcoin falls by one and a half to two times to the current level, then some experts will shout about the burst bubble, and other experts will talk about the correction that inevitably had to happen after such a big rise. As for the limit of the issue of bitcoin in the amount of 21 million, I want to say that bitcoin is open software and after a while the project can fork into branches, one of which will allow the release of an additional number of coins. So we can say that David Rosenberg is right and wrong at the same time.
legendary
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David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.

In fairness though, Bitcoin's future economic viability is purely theoretical. We're all just hoping it works. Right now, Bitcoin is extremely inflationary, and that's why miners have such a strong interest in securing the network. In the future when the mining subsidy is no longer relevant, the mining economy may look very different, and accordingly so may the security and viability of the network.

He's not wrong when he says the supply limit can't be changed. Consider things like the DAO fork in Ethereum, and then consider that lack of mining incentives could be an existential threat to Bitcoin in the future. If so, then a hard fork that further inflates the 21M coin supply is a real possibility.

We're all just theorizing when you get down to it.......

Yes, we are fantasizing ... However, the rise in bitcoin prices over the past 10 years is also fantastic!

Let's pretend that Bitcoin is the world's reserve currency ... In this case, mining isn't just about making a profit.  In this case, full nodes and control over Bitcoin mining is a precondition for governments and large corporations to issue money (If I host a full Bitcoin node, I have the option to issue my own money).

At present, states are interested in controlling the Internet.  In the future, it is possible that large corporations and states will seek to control the mining of bitcoins.  This will be as important as having your own army and control over the oil fields.  

Bitcoin can become a strategic resource.  This is its value.  There are not so many common human values ​​in the world.  Bitcoin is one of them.
legendary
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David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.

In fairness though, Bitcoin's future economic viability is purely theoretical. We're all just hoping it works. Right now, Bitcoin is extremely inflationary, and that's why miners have such a strong interest in securing the network. In the future when the mining subsidy is no longer relevant, the mining economy may look very different, and accordingly so may the security and viability of the network.

He's not wrong when he says the supply limit can't be changed. Consider things like the DAO fork in Ethereum, and then consider that lack of mining incentives could be an existential threat to Bitcoin in the future. If so, then a hard fork that further inflates the 21M coin supply is a real possibility.

We're all just theorizing when you get down to it.......
hero member
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It is important to note that Rosenberg identified the housing market bubble in 2005 right even before things started going south in 2008.

As experienced as Rosenberg might be in the field of economics, I don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit for bitcoin's supply. He might be right that we will never know what holds bitcoin's future should 21M coins be mined, but those values wouldn't even be achieved in a hundred years literally. Also, its specified scarcity makes bitcoin's value stand where it is, and if someone is going to change it just because it does not meet the need of people around the world, its price or valuation would be severely affected.

Stay in the path of centralization and easy-to-control assets for too long and you would really practice distrust on, and undermine decentralization and its concept. For more than a decade, no substantial changes on the max supply cap and other things connected to it has been made, plus no kill switch for bitcoin and its entirety is ever present to raise such questions IMO.
After reading just a little bit of it there is no point in reading anymore, he accuses people of not really understanding bitcoin and I think he has a point, many newbies do not understand it, however he then begins to make a bunch of accusations against bitcoin proving that he himself doesn't understand bitcoin at all, the 21 million coins limit is never going to be lifted, any suggestion by anyone to do that will be met with very harsh criticism and no one will ever allow it because we know that is one of the characteristics that it gives bitcoin its massive value.
sr. member
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Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.
You cannot blindly assert that bitcoin will not manifest itself as a financial bubble over time.  Therefore, such a statement has the right to go.  You should always remember about the peculiarities of cryptocurrencies and especially universal coins that do not have a real product.  They always say that you need to invest in a cryptocurrency so much of your money that you don't mind losing it.  However, no one can say that he has some extra money and he can afford to lose it.  Especially if one coin is worth more than $ 23,000.  Everything can be put into place and judged only for a significant period of time.  Ten years is still very little for this.
full member
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Omicron is another FUD
After years we still see and read people talking about Bitcoin being a bubble, Paypal think it's just a bubble some years ago and now they are making huge profit by adopting Cryptocurrency, they should now realized that Bitcoin have withstand the most harshest FUD and scenario and yet it's still standing.
until Bitcoin touch $100k price they will definitely go on and on and think Bitcoin is a "massive bubble".  how stupid he is because not buy Bitcoin last March and miss the chance to make a huge profit from this "massive bubble" (as David Rosenberg says).. "LOL"
legendary
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Bitcoin is only a massive bubble to anyone who blindly invests their money in bitcoin without having any research or knowledge. Following the bubble is the shortest way to become rich. As you can see, from 2016y to 2017, bitcoin had grown from $500 to $20000. And even when the bubble exploded, bitcoin was stable at $6000

Therefore, it is always a way for us to avoid the risk involve. Becoming a smart investor is my aim.
legendary
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yeah, i don't know shit about gold mining, minting, or anything like that. i just know that other people value gold bars and coins at the spot market price. that's all that really matters to me---that i can buy, hold value, and sell. does that make gold a bubble?

the same logic applies to bitcoin. it's crazy to think the average person would ever become knowledgeable about bitcoin's technical aspects. we'll be lucky if they even use a real wallet, as opposed to an exchange or other custody provider! Roll Eyes

He has a lot of wrong arguments in his rant, but it's a common sense that if investors are just FOMOing, and there's no fundamental reasons that could justify such price levels, then sooner or later it will crash hard. If something like that was happening to gold or any other asset, it would have been a bubble too.

However, if the previous pattern repeats, then people who invest at the current prices would probably be in profit regardless of what happens, as the next bottom will still be higher than what we have now.
legendary
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David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.  

Bitcoin is a potential global reserve currency.  Before Bitcoin, that currency was the US dollar (petrodollar).  Before even earlier, the reserve currency was gold.  The world is currently experiencing a global financial crisis.  The main cause of economic crises is a decrease in energy consumption.  It takes a huge amount of electricity to maintain the Bitcoin network.  Basically, Bitcoin is a currency based on electricity consumption.  At the same time, Bitcoin has limited emissions and a transparent blockchain.  

All this makes it the ideal world reserve currency of the XXI - XXII centuries.
hero member
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Really!! Then why the heck bitcoin price keeps increasing over the period of time. It's so funny that these so called economist keep saying bubble stuff about the bitcoin and still bitcoin is getting adopted on mass level. I mean I have seen same predictions and bubble bubble bubble thread since 2016-17. Moreover there are people talking about it way before that. Still here we are in 2020, in the historical pandemic when people are loosing jobs but still bitcoin is rising in its market cap and price. Isn't that's funny pips?
full member
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After years we still see and read people talking about Bitcoin being a bubble, Paypal think it's just a bubble some years ago and now they are making huge profit by adopting Cryptocurrency, they should now realized that Bitcoin have withstand the most harshest FUD and scenario and yet it's still standing.
hero member
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Bubble price comes out when you see the price is increasing sharply without of any valid reason, so we can say the bubble is going to explode and the price will fall, this can be happen is any market not just crypto. But what is can these days from the bitcoin price is not just a bubble price because there were some fundamental reasons for the price for increase and technically the ATR is getting lower comparing to the last months, this shows us the stability of the market.
hero member
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2017 is a bubble, we've heard it. 2020 is also a bubble and other future rise of bitcoin in the next years is also a bubble. That's what we'll hear from these "experts and economists".

He's doubting the supply limit of bitcoin @ 21 million. We would even see it hit the limit and whatever will happen next to it. Probably, he haven't read what satoshi read about reaching the supply limit. He don't know that transactions will continue and miners will still earn through confirming transactions.

And if bitcoin hits another all-time high just next year, he'd probably say the same thing about it being a bubble and so on. These people can always change their statements and say that they're liking the trend and it's the new modern asset that everyone should get into.
sr. member
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That's because one does not need to know all the twists and turns of this project in order to learn and be efficient in it. Unlike his conventional assets that require you to have the brains and the money, bitcoin doesn't, which makes it easily accesible to people. Either he's really salty about bitciin reaching new heights or he himself would want to buy btc cheap.
Bitcoin, most especially its technical aspects, is not the forte of economists. Yes, Bitcoin would somehow disrupt the current economic system but it doesn't make it a subject which automatically falls under the science of economics. I'm afraid the likes of Rosenberg have too little information or understanding of Bitcoin as far as its real deal is concerned that they couldn't provide a relevant argument against Bitcoin.

Speaking of "a classic, follow-the-herd" approach, it is the very thing that Rosenberg is doing in criticizing Bitcoin. His criticism is basically grounded on what he doesn't know.
People should do their own research in this day and age because not even the 'experts' themselves have the time to fact-checj their claims. This is not to compare with healthcare and vaccines altogether obviously, but people should stop believing everything they see on the internet. Including this Rosenberg guy.
legendary
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a bubble like 2017? or like tulip mania? big difference! Cheesy

Quote
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."
Eh, I wouldn't exactly say he's wrong on that, but I would also say that people don't really need to understand the technical aspects of bitcoin in order to use it (or to speculate on its price).

yeah, i don't know shit about gold mining, minting, or anything like that. i just know that other people value gold bars and coins at the spot market price. that's all that really matters to me---that i can buy, hold value, and sell. does that make gold a bubble?

the same logic applies to bitcoin. it's crazy to think the average person would ever become knowledgeable about bitcoin's technical aspects. we'll be lucky if they even use a real wallet, as opposed to an exchange or other custody provider! Roll Eyes
legendary
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Bitcoin, most especially its technical aspects, is not the forte of economists. Yes, Bitcoin would somehow disrupt the current economic system but it doesn't make it a subject which automatically falls under the science of economics. I'm afraid the likes of Rosenberg have too little information or understanding of Bitcoin as far as its real deal is concerned that they couldn't provide a relevant argument against Bitcoin.

Speaking of "a classic, follow-the-herd" approach, it is the very thing that Rosenberg is doing in criticizing Bitcoin. His criticism is basically grounded on what he doesn't know.
legendary
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Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.
legendary
Activity: 2814
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Quote
"Everybody seems to believe that we're going to get to that 21 million cap on the supply constraint, but there's really nothing in the protocol to suggest that the supply of bitcoin can't go up once we hit that limit," the economist said.

He talks big how most Bitcoin investors don't know much about it and don't understand it, but he obviously doesn't get it either. It really takes an hour to learn some basic facts about the protocol and understand that we are limited to 21m. It's possible to change it with a fork, but it's not that easy to fork Bitcoin and make people choose the new chain. You can fork it, but without the community behind you you'll be like Roger Ver.
As far as the bubble is concerned, if we look at google, facebook, apple, amazon, tesla, they were all in a massive uptrend that someone could call a bubble. Doesn't mean they will suddenly go to 0.
legendary
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I don't know why any credit is being given to this random "economist" David Rosenberg as having predicted it.
It's probably article-worthy because 1) he's an economist, and 2) he's talking about bitcoin, which is quite hot at the moment.  I suspect all the other typical talking heads will be voicing their opinions as well, Peter Schiff and those types.  They jump in and get their names mentioned and thereby stay relevant in people's minds.  Makes it much easier to hype up precious metals IMO.

legendary
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Michael Burry is the person best known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage driven recession - captured in the well known film "The Big Short". I don't know why any credit is being given to this random "economist" David Rosenberg as having predicted it. To that end, he has no special knowledge on the future of Bitcoin and while it may be in a bubble nobody knows its true intrinsic value and it could still be worth much more.

"While investors do know about the supply curve of gold with certainty," is a stupid claim to make, as new deposits of gold are constantly being found all around the world and while the extraction is at a predictable rate - the ultimate available supply is not known. You should be very wary of economists, they claim to know a lot but rarely predict with reliable accuracy.
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As experienced as Rosenberg might be in the field of economics, I don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit for bitcoin's supply.

Or he's implying that a hard-coded limit isn't really hard-coded. Technically, all it takes is a hard fork to lift the limit.

Let's say we begin approaching the 21M limit and then honest mining incentives start to collapse because fees aren't generating sufficient income. Hash rate enters a down spiral, mining attacks become the norm, confirmations become totally unreliable. What if the only answer to fix the mining economy were to subsidize miners again, as they are subsidized currently by the 21M supply?

Not what I'm expecting (and I'll be dead anyway) but the possibility is there, and the skeptics know it.

For more than a decade, no substantial changes on the max supply cap and other things connected to it has been made, plus no kill switch for bitcoin and its entirety is ever present to raise such questions IMO.

The early years, where the mining subsidy is largest, is not the test. The supply has actually been inflating really fast. Many halvings down the road, these questions may become more relevant.
legendary
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Reminds me of an Economics professor (I can't recall his name) who predicted that btc is nothing but a piece of shit which will be worth 0 in near future, see it is 2020, where is that professor?

Did anybody ask Rosenberg why he thinks btc is a massive bubble? Because institutional investors are preferring it over gold? Or he wants to buy btc cheap?

If we will see a spike in the total supply number after reaching the last Bitcoin through mining, I am sure btc will fall down but it has years to come. Why add more btc in supply when you can add a new coin to the list: a fork of btc at 1:1 ratio and add 21 million coins more to the market like Bch did?
legendary
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Economist David Rosenberg told Bloomberg he believes bitcoin is in a bubble and investors don't understand supply dynamics of the cryptocurrency.
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."

Bitcoin reached a record high of $23,777 on Thursday shortly after topping $20,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, marking a 20% gain over the past day. The cryptocurrency is now up over 200% year-to-date, but Rosenberg said the chart looks "absolutely crazy right now."
Bitcoin's rally comes as several institutional investors and fund managers place sky-high predictions for the coin. On Wednesday, Guggenheim's global chief investment officer, Scott Minerd, said bitcoin will surge to $400,000 based on its scarcity and value relative to gold.

Though Rosenberg raised his doubts about the scarcity of bitcoin and the thesis that only 21 million bitcoin are able to be mined. 
"Everybody seems to believe that we're going to get to that 21 million cap on the supply constraint, but there's really nothing in the protocol to suggest that the supply of bitcoin can't go up once we hit that limit," the economist said.
While investors do know about the supply curve of gold with certainty, Rosenberg said that investors just "think they know" but don't really know about bitcoin's supply curve.

He added that the last time bitcoin behaved with such a "speculative fervor," it suffered massive disappointments in the months to follow. Bitcoin bulls say that 2020's rally is different because of the institutional inflows.

From: https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-bubble-david-rosenberg-supply-mining-cryptocurrency-outlook-record-high-2020-12-1029903485

It is important to note that Rosenberg identified the housing market bubble in 2005 right even before things started going south in 2008.

As experienced as Rosenberg might be in the field of economics, I don't think he grasps the idea of a hard-coded limit for bitcoin's supply. He might be right that we will never know what holds bitcoin's future should 21M coins be mined, but those values wouldn't even be achieved in a hundred years literally. Also, its specified scarcity makes bitcoin's value stand where it is, and if someone is going to change it just because it does not meet the need of people around the world, its price or valuation would be severely affected.

Stay in the path of centralization and easy-to-control assets for too long and you would really practice distrust on, and undermine decentralization and its concept. For more than a decade, no substantial changes on the max supply cap and other things connected to it has been made, plus no kill switch for bitcoin and its entirety is ever present to raise such questions IMO.
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