Topic: ??? DECISION TIME FOR BITCOIN?!?! 4k or 3.5k?!?! ??? (Read 16009 times)

I will reply to your question number 2 which has something about the resistance around  $4000. This is happening because of the past event that happened around that particularly amount and we all know that if that level  is penetrate so much the market will definitely reach $5000 or there about.

I always use EMAs

Your analysis has a good sense if we see it from the point of view of the split of 2h. But if you want to analyze the market in general, the best thing is that at times to days or months, the information that you can subtract is much wider, you can decipher where the direction of the market can go.

If we take into account that according to Wyckoff's theory we are in the accumulation phase, the EMA will always be above the normal line of the bitcoin chart, then that information will give you a bearish, but we are not in a bearish trend.

And if you reach that conclusion, you will always enter the Bearish market with the total conviction that it will be bearish, and the market may rise and liquidate your position, in that part, you must be careful, it is best to observe how the volume can tell you the amount of supply and demand that goes to Days, because only then you can determine the line of least resistance, and that is the one that must be followed, since that way you will not go against the market.

If you look at the charts you can see this drop from 6k is a mirror image of the 2018 bear market

Not everything can be told by the charts, the year of 2017 was special for many reasons during almost all year the developers were fighting the miners so they could accept segwit and the battle was fierce, that is why the price did not grew that much during the first part of the year, then some miners decided to create bitcoin cash as a response to the pressure of the developers and the community and when we finally got segwit activated the price began to skyrocket very quickly, and right now I do not see that kind of interest from investors that are not part of the community so I do not expect the same scenario repeating itself.

In 2017 almost the same pattern of growth took place. For a long there weren't big growth, only the market was showing signs of fluctuations. Later it grew gradually, and by then investors began to pour lot of fund into bitcoin. This kept the market keep on growing without any interruptions. Finally by the way close to $20000 the price drop got initiated and showed drastic fall. By this time it is predicted for a growth above $4200 which might take the price further to $6000 by the end of the second quarter 2019.

The question is, are that much people really confident n btc right now? Though i agree that we've probably bottomed out already, i don't think confidence is high. New investors are still wary in putting in money after the 2017 -2018 drama. The steady hands would have to get is through this slow movement for now.

I took the last big rise to 4200 and its subsequent fall and taking Fibonnaci retracement % from there we are between 50% and 61.8% levels as on this chart.  The blue line is the 8 day average price




To judge a tide you can sometimes just put a stick in the ground to observe if its advancing or retreating.   There are other ways but the simpliest way to judge the tide or trend at that time.   Here we can do similar perhaps in reference to the last break upto 4200.   If it fails to maintain the lower 4050 level then its going to at least check the 8 day average.   If it can push past 4100 then we are above the 61.8% fib retrace and perhaps 100% or 4200 area is more possible.

It needs to break above and confirm above 4100 area.  On the chart we can see on the 4hr bars it rose above a couple times but did not close out there especially

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retracement.asp

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Don't be so sure. If the rally fails and forms a new lower high below 4200 dollars it can go back to retest the lows. The down support is looking good because we are still forming higher lows but we need to break above the previous peaks to convince the bears that it's time they changed their strategy.
I'm still invested and waiting for a return above 5000 dollars which would suggest the final end of the bear market but 4000 is still a weak support and going above it doesn't mean anything. 5000 is what people are waiting for.

Yeah, 4k range seems to be the new norm for bitcoin. It went up to 4200 range couple weeks ago and even when it dropped it didn't dropped too further down this time, normally when it dropped it hit places like 3500 and a bit under that but this time around it was mostly staying above 3800 which means it didn't get away too far from 4000 range.

I wanted to buy a bit at around 3500 so I could sell when it eventually hits over 4000 again but couldn't get it since it didn't reached that low.

Hopefully we will see it go even higher because if we could find a way to stay around these levels it makes it easier to go higher, think about it which one is easier going from 3400 to 4200 or going from 4000 to 4500 ? One is about 800 dollar difference the other is just 500 and if we could manage that than we can break this cycle and finally go up.

I see a lot of people responding like that, if a lot of people believe and are confident about the condition of Bitcoin in the future, then I'm sure recover is just a matter of time. The bottom already over which will happen in the future is price increase, it's better that you prepare to buy more before you are left behind and miss a big opportunity..

Yes, we still at the bearish market but fortunately, the price become stronger than yesterday, and we see that the price can increase higher after it's falling yesterday. So we have a chance to see the price will increase more in the next week unless there is negative news that could push the price to fallen again which I don't want to know that. I am sure that many people will love to see the price can increase, but we cannot just hope it will happen in the short. We still need to be patient in the bearish and I am sure that we are almost leaving the bearish and who knows, in the next months, we will see the bull market come.

As i was expecting it, the resistance broke at $4k. If it will going to be strong, it will continue to go up to that $4200. At 1d timeframe, the bullish trend is not yet the end. So, it will continue to pump. Let's not losehope.

It's a very possible scenario thet the  Bitcoin price crosses 4000$ and goes back to 3000$ or 3500$. Some small growth like this now always gives hope to users who think the price could finally move from the dead point but there is no guarantee this will actually happen.
At the moment I wouldn't give any predictions at all, let's wait couple days and see how the situation will develope because every scenario is possible.

Like 2017 and before year's week-end, now also bitcoin markets started to surprise us on week ends. Not yet sure,it will be capable of sustaining above $k levels here after by considering its volume but this also an usual thing for a reversal market. There are lots of positive signs are being observed for bitcoin prices to move toward $5k levels in coming days.

$3100 levels will never happen again for ever but $3500 may happen but definitely may not sustain. More particularly, $3800 alone may happen again but anything beyond $4500 will erase the possibilities of below $4000 levels forever permanently.

We just hit $4K a few minutes ago and it looks like we are not out of steam yet. Looking at the open interest, there was a small amount of positions which closed, so I am thinking we will test $4200 again for the 5th time and this will give us a peak into the future of Crypto.

Its basically simple we will either hit $4200 and go straight back down to $3100-$3500 or we will break $4200 and head into the $5-6K terrority. And the $6K will be a tough nut to crack.

Bitcoin was stay in a around 4k USD it is the constant dip in crypto market. So I expect anytime it will move to 5k or 6k because we saw the sudden dump in last year so anytime gradual increase will possible in Bitcoin. I believe this year see some good hype in crypto market.

At these lows I think its save to start tearing in capital from 3500 and down on btc dips waiting for the bull run.

I think if we push too hard for the bullish trend to come, we will still all benefit from it too provided we are already an investor and bought at deep, it is not only beneficial to those that are yet to invest or those that bought at very high price when bitcoin hit the highest bull price some years back and yet to recover. If we experience sudden bullish trend now.

I know the whales will benefit because they already invested at deep and will pull out their fund which we will also do too to our when the time comes after which the price will crash again for us to buy. I don’t mean to be selfish; I am only talking from business angle.

Resistance below $4k is really strong but this past few days, it seems the price are doing well. If this will continue, we're going to see $4k again and hope it will stay there but if others selling point is $4k, then sure thing it will go below again and we can't do anything with that.

it won't happen either one of those ways. instead there will be lots of ups and downs with some unpredictable actions in the market like sudden rises or sudden dumps where whales and bots go badshit crazy and then we will see the rise. and by then you most probably wouldn't be able to blink without missing a certain percentage rise.
i wouldn't be surprised if in a couple of weeks from now i wake up every morning to a new higher price.

My opinion is that there is a fairly high probability that over the next few weeks, Bitcoin may drop in price somewhere up to the level of 3600 or so, but after that the growth will continue and the price will have to rise above $ 4,500. I expect this to happen within a month and a half.

I mean we are closer to the bottom than the top so scaling down would not be a bad idea. If we reach new lows I would probably use leverage for longer term trades.

Hard to reach $4k now but in a matter of time we will.

The price could go back to $3,500 so either way it's possible, but the way I see it, the price has been bullish lately, so I'm with the uptrend of $4K.
Actually short term is not a big deal to me, I am for longer term so its just okay if the price will be played at that range but I'm confident we will break that soon.

In time we don’t need to make any rush in the market because the bull run will finally come. Bitcoin is always pumping and trying to go beyond $4k level but its hard for a market where manipulators are very active. I think we need to have patience, because we are near at $4k level and we can actually beat that in the future.

I agree also. good points

People should not push too hard to let the bullish trend to come because at the end of the day only the whales can gain a profit from them because they can easily manipulate the market and we can't do anything about it.

I think we have seen the bottom before and we are still here on a stable state of Bitcoin where it stays at this current price for weeks. We may conclude that the resistance is $4k but so far the price is not even touching on that for a week except to the last bull trap last month.

At this moment the value of the bitxoin is $3866 and it is near to the value of $4000 and I don't think it will turn to the value of $3500 because market now is quiet stable and increase slowly but a little only and Im still waiting for the bitcoin to hitted again $4000 before wnd of this week.

I agree 1000%. I expect the bull run to can next year and not this one. I hate when people think that this year bitcoin is going to reach a new ATH due to the decline that happened last year.
2019 will be still a corrective year where only the true believers of the blockchain technology will stay. I see there are a lot of people on their way out to sell when the price will have some gains.

Presently now bitcoin is on 3840+ usd which is gradually moving toward the 4k resistance as stated by you which I am also in agreement with  but I see it breaking the resistance this coming week and tend toward making 4200 its bottom which will be steal for a while before trying to test the 5k and breaking forth to 6k and finally back to 4800 for the rest of this year.

I see the bull run next year and not this year again except something exceptional beyond analysis happens since market cannot be 100% predicted.

the price always move around 3500 usd to 4000 usd, I think it is a base of bitcoin. Hope that 2019 bitcoin will not fall lower than 3500 usd.

Well we are closer to 4 thousand dollars most of the time which could be taken as a decision if you believe that sort of thing. I mean if you think bitcoin has to make a decision between 3.5 thousand dollars or 4 thousand dollars that means you must be brand new to bitcoin.

It can literally go between 3.5 thousand dollars and 4 thousand dollars 100 more times up and down up and down and it wouldn't matter, bitcoin is a volatile thing and it going up and down is nothing major for us because we are used to it by now. However, if you really think that we should pick one or the other than 4 thousand dollar seems like more favorable right now.

Not that it won't go down but the top is at 4.2 thousand dollars and we always test it and as soon as we break that number we are going to skyrocket.

Maybe once we see again the value of the bitcoin reach again $4000 for the second time this year 2019.  It is possible to sign bull run for the market but make sure you did not expect 100 percent . But we hope that is the start for the bull run. Price of the bitcoin is still unpredictable because sometimes they decrease or it increase. Today price is more than $3900 and it's near to $4000 but it will reach that again or maybe it will down again.

The price can always go to the $4000 USD mark and can make a sudden pump even higher than that but I don't really think  that this is a sign or an indication for a bull movement And because I believe we are not seeing the true bottom for the price of bitcoin, there is a lot happen and we still experiencing low volatileness from the price of bitcoin, And in my opinion the bearish market this year still continues, That is just my speculation and will not gonna handle any other prediction because of unpredictability that may happen to the market this year.

One thing I can say is that I know there will not be a dip in the price of bitcoin beyond the $3000 range unlike what most people are saying that the price of bitcoin would get to $800, we just need a few months from now and we word begin to see the magic of the bull run in the price of bitcoin and other crypto currency like ETH and EOS.

My guess is that it would begin fully in the 3rd quarter of the year. But, if there would be any big positive news in between time, then we may start the journey to moon at that time itself.

With the rejection we just had looks like we might be going towards 3.5 or it was just a hunt trade

You're right about the resistance being at $4k. Prices have already tested that level in the past rally, and even though it did go through that resistance, it was only temporary and a correction came right afterwards. I think it's quite obvious that given the still bearish sentiments present in the market, we'll likely see sideways movements with some potential short term dips/panic sells before a large rally comes by that constitutes the actual recovery.

So is it possible we still haven't seen the true bottom? Yes, because short term volatility can literally take prices anywhere, and with people's perception of BTC still being in a bear market it's very possible short term panic dumps can be quite sizeable.

But I personally think that we're already past the bottom, because we've seen strong rebounds from the $3k-3.5k level multiple times. The demand below that price would just be too great, especially from institutions that prices will rebound as soon as coins get below $3k.

I don't think there will be any further serious decline of Bitcoin market value that will make us withness another new bottom in time to come. If you are still expecting to Bitcoin at a cheaper rate than what its value was some months back meaning you have the golden opportunity.

if the price does not exceed  $4200 then the price will fall, but this is not reason to worry because it is normal. when I speak of normal I am referring to the fact that there is not much demand for bitcoin which causes that the price does not increase much. This is the case of being very patient that in the next months or years the price will recover

After one wick on high volume, that's usually a good assumption. It means supply overtook demand. However, it keeps happening over and over. Bulls keep holding the line and retesting the highs. Usually when a resistance level gets tested over and over, it eventually breaks.

So I'm still short term bullish on the chart, looking for an eventual retest and break of the $4,200 level.


I'm leaning towards that conclusion as well. But there's still a decent chance we're wrong.

Bitcoin isn't crossing $4000, people keep focus on the price to grow above $4000. The previous price pumping gave the price of bitcoin to be above $4000, several such predictions happened and none sustained above $4000 for a longer time. Th upcoming price to be above $4000 will support with the crossing of $4000 barrier.

I'm sure there is plenty of new money coming into the market, but that's largely through private deals (i.e. OTC trading). The on-chain transaction volume is indicative of high volume trades, but the money doesn't touch spot exchanges, and that's what's driving the price at the end of the day.

Important indicators are stablecoins. As long as the total circulating supply is the same, there isn't all that much money entering the market that we can see. Before $6000 broke USDT's total circulating supply was hovering between 2.3-2.5 billion, right now that's just under 2 billion. In other words, up to 0.5 billion has left the market.

Correct. The market has since stagnated ever since we stayed on $6k for a few months before sliding down past $5k which seemed to be impossible for many traders back then. No new money is coming in on the market; no catalyst for a price push and certainly no bullish movement happening. Though one thing's interesting lately: volume is gradually growing since Dec. 2018. While this might seem nothing at all, higher volume with almost no price changes is a common scenario for accumulation, and that's what could be happening in the sidelines.

The thing is, no real money is coming in to the market. Very few new investors. It would probably take more than a few good news to really bring back the confidence that was lost because of this ongoing trend. The run to 4.1k isn't at all bullish.  There have  been runs like that last year where we're still dominated by bears. And i agree that we may not have seen the bottom for this year yet.

Bitcoin already breaks $4150 with a few rally and the trend still not change from Bearish to Bullish. You cant use the factor of price for trend of the market. We need some a good news and adoption to makes the rally was really strong.

LOL. We have been bearish for a long time, and breaking $4150 doesn't mean we can go uptrend as well. And as far as I know we did broke that barrier last Feb 24, but the growth wasn't sustainable so I don't think we can say that we need to break this certain resistance to go to the next phase. It doesn't work right now as investors or speculators will just jump on opportunity to book profits.

Unless we break 4150 I see no reason to be bearish. until then I am bearish

It's pointless to make predictions about the bitcoin price based on a 2-hour chart analysis.
The bitcoin price moves here and there every minute and there's no point to making conclusions out of every 0.1% rise or fall of the price.Bitcoin is stable and that's the best news we could get.

As some of you think that economically, BTC has seen its bottom then I say not yet because BTC is yet to see a bottom but don't worry, it will look more as a red injection line downway (dump to a new bottom) and then instantly back to the price from where the dump starts. I don't see this going below $2000 (the least I expect to be the bottom for this year). The bullish momentum that is being seen at the moment doesn't look trustworthy enough to say that BTC is actually bullish, and chances of reversal as well as dumps are more as it all looks a trap. Better not to take leveraged positions nowadays because it will only land you at ground scale, so save yourself some money and have buy orders open for $2500 with 50% and $2000 with remaining 50% capital you want to invest.

it is impossible to say and no there is no "psychological number" yet because those only come in when we actually reach the price multiple times and don't break it. so far we have only done that once and with only one try that doesn't become strong resistant!
right now the only thing "psychological" as i have said before is that uncertainty which is not changing with any kind of TA on the charts. and uncertainty means nobody knows whether price is going up or down which is why it doesn't move at all!

You can be bearish as you want base on your technical analysis but the market can't be predicted that much. Most of the time, these TA's aren't coming into really but for me I respect and I'm good with these TA's because I can have that basis if I want to depend on them but mostly I won't. I'm not very good on the technical side of the market but every each point that has been shared here looks amazing. With the pricing you mentioned on the title, we're heading to $4,000 and if breaks back again expect $3,500 - $3,800 for months.

Its hard to know where the market is heading but I'm confident that the bottom was already hit. The recent dump is just because of the failed attempt to break the resistance and its normal. The dump price will continue not unless we already surpass the resistance on level $4300. Let's make a good prediction, the market will go high! 

Hello all, I want to do a quick update about bitcoin. Within this post I want to acknowledge all of you about the crucial area of bitcoin and the price reaction on this particular area.

On my post today, I want to present the 2-hours chart as a key chart that I want to concern for, Why?
1. Bitcoin is trending on 200 moving average on 2 hours chart which means the bitcoin is moving nearly the decision line whether it is going to the up trend or down trend
2. $4000 is becoming a relatively strong resistance because of psychological number and a lot of price action has occur  in the past.
3. The price is still trending on the 38.2 fibs retracement based on previous swing high to swing low. as we know, based on fibonacci number there are 2 crucial area which is 38.2 and the golden ratio number, it is a special number that can occur on every aspect of life in this universe.
4. The wicks on 2-hours chart. we can see in the 2-hours chart there are several wicks on the closing candle (look at the yellow box). what does it mean?
Whenever we saw the wick toward the resistance, it always represents the market player's sentiment on specific time frame. we can easily conclude that the bulls are trying to push the price toward the upside to break the resistance zone, but the bear is too bearish, which means it ended up to produces the wicks, and what will happen when we saw a several wicks here? In my opinion, just like the human analogy, whenever you are trying to push the price up and ended up failing, the bulls will feel exhausted if they are rejected a lot of time and it will simply losing their strength soon.

So, the conclusion is I am still bearish side  short term.

and no, i dont think the bottom is in.