Topic: Deutsche Bank: How long before it crashes now? (Read 5559 times)

It's odd that you post this after the result of the election is known

I'm assuming you mean the bit about fixing it, not fractional reserve. It's fixable, but it will require pain to be inflicted somewhere. That's the question, who gets the pain, not whether there will be pain. And of course whether the pain causes other problems. It's quite possible the financial shockwave of a bail-in, for example, would create real damage.

No one I know accepts this reality... Everyone thinks we can have exponential expansion on finite resources forever :S.. I have a bad feeling a war is brewing to "fix" the ecom.. if Hilary wins WW3 will happen..

I don't agree that Deutsche Bank can crash just like that and that this would significantly affect the Bitcoin price.
No matter the problems this is very big, strong and influenced bank and they will find the solution for ut. With the hepl of establishment if necessary.
And I can't see how this could influence Bitcoin price, especialy not on longterm.

I still consider the EU is the most stable union, the standart of living there is still very high. It is the whole world who is experiencing financial difficulties at the moment, at least according to http://planetaryproject.com/global_problems/economic/ , not the EU only. I think Brexit was a big mistake, at least now.

^^^ This is not how it works. It's not like in It's A Wonderful Life any more (incidentally one of the worst films ever made). Banks don't lend out customer deposits. They create money when they make loans. Which is totally worse than fractional reserve banking.
And like I wrote above, it's not whether it will be fixed, but how. Someone is in for some pain, that much is unavoidable. I'm intrigued to see what creative solution they come up with.

There will be another bail out


Banks receive money from individuals.

They use this money, loan it out on interest.

Thus cresting more money.

They only reserve .02 cents for every dollar deposited in said bank.

Financial turmoil happens.

Bank has no money

Bank meets with goverment and says were to big to fail, the world can't handle it

Goverment goes to central banks, prints more money on interest gives the money to government

Government gives money to banks in a form of bail out.

The tax payer is the signature on the loan, that the government will pay the central bank back.

The game of bail outs.

The question is how long will the game last?

Peter Schiff says, "Everybody wants to go to Heaven, but nobody wants to die!"

That's exactly the case with Deutsche Bank. One way or another somebody is going to pay for this mess. If you want to pay lesser, it is time to abandon ship!

I have read recently that punishment from US side has been reduced to something between 5 and 5.5 billions.
That's still a huge amount, but something the bank can handle.
And there still is that chance that this is not the end of the line. Their lawyers think they can continue to negotiate and reduce the amount even further.

I guess the big thing is the $14bn fine from the US authorities, if they can reneg the fine like most of the other banks did it will increase the investment levels back in the bank. The IMF have labelled DB as the most at risk bank in the western world right now.

From all I know they made a profit in Q3 2016 of 300 millions.
In Q1 and Q2 they made profit as well. I don't see these are numbers from a crashing bank.
Even hedgefonds have reduced their bets aginst this bank in the last weeks again. And they are usually the first who take advantage of crashing companies.

Deutsche Bank is systemically important and 'too big to fail', so it will get done. The only question is how, and what problems the solution creates. When you get this far down the track, 'fixing' something like DB's problems is like pushing bubbles down under the wallpaper. They have limited options.
You can raise money by issuing stock, which will dilute existing shareholders' stakes and be politically unpopular. Bye bye Merkel in all likelihood.
You can't bailout the bank under EU rules, unless you bail in creditors first to the tune of 8%, which I think is something like EUR 140 billion. Enough to send some shockwaves through the financial system and make Merkel even more unpopular.
Or you can ignore the rules, which after all are treated like guidelines anyway, and have a state-backed bailout. Except that you lose the moral high ground in that case, and Germany can no longer stand over the likes of Italy with a stick and tell them to sort out their own banking sector. So Italy bails out its banks against EU rules, followed by other nations with banks in crisis, and at that point the wheels really start to come off.
Fixing DB is like the old joke, 'If you want to get there, you don't start from here.' Pain will be involved somewhere as losses have to be imposed somewhere. Very curious to see how this one will end. And even if the US does reduce its fine to $5bn, there are still big problems buried in DB's books.

Well, even the French are now beginning to balk at what they're expected to handle courtesy of the EU!

I don't understand why some European politicians couldn't find popularity by proposing a real free trade area (where they just tear up the tariffs and subsidies completely) and real free movement (where they abandon the antiquated "passport" system). Countries like Norway, UK, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Greece, Spain, Italy etc have a real incentive to do this.

I can hear all the xenophobes' knees jerking "But then all the world will descend on this anti-EU!". Yep, and if they don't find anything when they get there, they'll go somewhere else. Either you believe in the free-market or you don't IMO.

The EU is nothing but a protectionist club for Germany and France and it is killing all the other countries in it - see Greece, Spain, Italy, Finland etc Britain is better off out.

I don think this bank is going to crash because lots of germans has this bank and i think that germany wont let this bank fail you know allot of germans will be mad about it because there money is on it.

I don tthink that is going to happen you know lots of people are not getting enough information abou the bitcoin and are only saying some bullshit and i know for sure that the deutche bank will never collapse.

I agree, the campaigning on both sides of the argument were terrible, and a large chunk of the public didn't know what they were voting for or understood what the implications of fallout will be. Ironically, the demographic of the leave campaign will be disproportionately affected by the slump in exchange rate when inflation kicks in.

Even those who voted for Brexit might regret it now. The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process is worrisome.
If a second vote for held today, I think the sentiment is for Britain to stay in Europe.

Brexit is a result of referendum - it was citizens who voted, government with David Cameron as PM actually was against Brexit.
IIRC officials were desperately promoting European Union as the only way for Britain to exist in Europe.

More likely, as has happened in Greece, a "bail in".  All investors get a haircut, unless they can withdraw their funds prior to the withdrawal limits that will follow in order to avoid a run on the bank.

Yes, good for Bitcoin because it will implicate ALL banks, and their horrible financial situation.

Not sure but I have about this bank and it is possible that this bank is going to crash because it is not going good with the economy in some countries.
That is going to result in the bank or multiple banks crashing.

They can't end bitcoin. Nobody can.

If they ever able to reduce bitcoin's price to 1$, I would buy shitloads of bitcoin and i know... There are shitloads of people like me waiting for that opportunity.

Zero hedge recently reported that the european central banks and the rest of banksters are getting together and gathering a plan to end bitcoin, it seems that they know once deutstche bank's shit hits the fan it's over for them and the money will flow into bitcoin and they want to stop this.

You are correct there. IMO the reckless actions of the banks will only enforce the price and reliability of Bitcoin as it gradually proves to be a safe alternative to fiat. Good to be an early adopter!

I agree that DB should rather focus on their own problems then to try to attack bitcoin or make bitcoin investors afraid by bringing out this false information about bitcoin.
Because it is false. Bitcoin seems to be stable as ever.

The scammery and hidden data in Deustche Bank case must be huge. I think this time they can't get away with it with any of their dirty tricks. If Deustche Bank goes down it may be what triggers the next 2008 type of event again, and if it doesn't, their tricks will not work so the collapse is inevitable, it will just be a delayed boom.

Rofl what's he going to say? "EVERYBOSY GET THE FUCK OUT IT'S ABOUT TO IMPLODE!!!! GRAB YOUR WIFE AND KIDS AND GET THE FUCK OUTTA HERE!!!!" How's that? It's to be expected from the leader of a failing company.

Both Enron and Lehman Brothers were saying they were "rock solid", right up until they weren't.

Executives gonna lie, 'cause that's what they they think they're good at.

Physiognomy is real. Punchable shitlib face, one eye looking like he has brain damage. That guy is a pathological liar.

Here is a photo that I posted on Feb 16th, 2016.

EU might not be the best place to be in, but the UK has made a mistake.
The world is globalized now and they cannot go back to their own sweet corner.

Wait until the EU collapses, they're all going down faster than a cheap hooker. Why do you think GB were desperare to get out & leave that sinking ship.

I have read reports of Deutsche Bank being in big troubles and I cannot say that I am worried about it. Another crisis is being discussed from a long time, the Eurozone ECB (European Central Bank) is from quite a few months running the QE (Quantitative Easing) that should in theory be helpful to recall a good economy. So far results are zero as we are seeing EUR/USD pair losing steam in the long run.

It will not take long before this bank crashes, I say beginning of next year is a sure bet here.

ROFL nicely put. You sure earned your Satoshi with that post.


They can collapse, absolutely. Whether the German government or EU decides to bail them out is another story though.

 Deutsche Bank crash not impact in bitcoin
but  Deutsche Bank big impact to fiat money euro and poundsterling

Deutsche bank is one of the banks in europe that can't collapse. The EU got plenty of funds  to make sure they won't collapse. But their arrogance towards bitcoin is uncalled for and like a small child they rather bad mouth bitcoin then to innovate themself.

Good joke lol.

The Deutsche Bank is basically never going to collapse, although the confidence in it can be shaken all the way down to the ground.

At this point the banks are never going to go down and collapse, there are too many governments interested in maintaining the power the banks have over the people and as such there is going to be bailout after bailout to keep them alive. It is never going to change until people stop getting their food and electricity.

Personally, I think that Deutsche Bank will be fine and wont go under. Can't see it being brought down by American fines. Hopefully this situation will make the banks a little more careful in the future (*coughs*)

This scenario is very doubtful. Why Euro parliament has to help German bank in the first place? When even German government refused to help it.
We need to understand - it is not just Deutsche Bank whole European banking is completely broken. This time crisis will start in EU and spread to other markets.

Deutsche Bank is a bank that won't collapse. The European Parliament will make sure this will not happen. But the hate against bitcoin or bashing of bitcoin needs to stop. Because we at this point know for a fact that bitcoin's technology is very popular, especially in the banking sector.

Having said that, we should not take this statements too serious...

I do not think it is going to happen. The countries that will be affected will not allow it to start another huge financial crisis like the one that happened in 2008. Deutsche bank will be bailed out for sure now that they know that if they want to bail out a bank, they better make sure they print more than enough fiat to do so. And they will have no problem with that as long as the end justifies the means.

If they allow it to collapse then what good will that be to everyone involved?

I think because they bailed out so many countries in the EU. Why do you think Britain wanted to seperate from EU in the first place? Because they saw this coming and didn't want to be a part of it. They just screw you guys were staying home
And with the influx of all those migrates didn't help any of their economy much either because they have to pay for them now.

Bitcoin is not backed by fiat, it is priced in fiat.  It could easily be priced in gold or look if someone wanted to make a direct trade of bitcoin for commodities.

after all they are the only one that can save a bank by bailing it out, so i don't think they will let their bank collapsing without doing anything, it's obvious that a germany bank can not fall before other bank from other country, it's is just having some bad run in these days

What the fuck are you talking about??? Are you kidding me?! Bitcoin is not and never will be backed by fiat. Don't ever fucking spew that shit from your mouth again. Google it right now and stfu.


Source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Help:FAQ

Fucking joke.. Jesus Christ... Are you shitting me? Use your original newbie account, not this bought one. Someone might mistakenly take you seriously. If this isn't bought you'd better fucking research what website you've been posting on for almost 2 years! Holy shit. Get the basics down, then start spamming the forum like all the illiterate sig spammers do.

Governments seem to do whatever they feel at that moment. Take SNS bank for example. nytimes:

What else would their CEO say? Of course he says that! What you should ask yourself is why he says it. How many CEOs of companies that are actually doing good feel the need to say this?

According to the CEO of Deutschebank they are making plenty of money and are stable enough, hence the slight recovery in the share price lately. I think the stock is undervalued at the moment, because for all the bluster the German government wouldn't let it fall over. I think it's a bit rich for the Americans to fine all these foreign firms such high amounts when American banks get away with fines for a fraction of these amounts.

this about times 1 million. people really need to get real and realize any world event is an excuse for the same old traders to have a little fun.

maybe a trickle of new people might show some interest but they ain't moving any prices and they probably will never
get anywhere near the exchanges. they'll use coinbase or the local equivalent or localbitcoins.

I've only recently read about the Deutsche Bank being in trouble. I always thought the German banks were doing okay, especially since part of the reason Greece got a bail-out (hundreds of billions of euros) was to save the banks in other European countries.

The QE (quantitative easing: the introduction of new money into the money supply by a central bank) is still going on, keeping interests very low or even negative. I thought this was mainly to save the countries in Southern Europe, but banks in the West benefit too. The low interest has lead to increased lending (by governments, but also on the private (mortgage) market), hence increasing the risks.

If the Deutsche Bank is in trouble despite all these measures to try and make things better again, we're in for a bigger crisis than the last.
QE (buying bonds for 80 billion euro per month) is all they can do. ECB Policymaker Says There is no Plan B if QE Fails.

I don't dare to speculate on how this will impact Bitcoin.

I think there are correlations between the BTC price and world events, in fact I watch the current affairs as much as technical indicators - some examples of spikes were during the brexit, Greek financial crisis and during the Yuan devaluation - in those cases people actively bought bitcoin as part of a mitigation strategy and BTC usage was increased substantially in greece at that time. There isn't an immediate trend shift like there is in forex - however I can certainly see shifts in the price based on major events. A number of people see BTC as a contingency investment like gold (but gold is may more established in this field).

There isn't really a correlation between Bitcoin and any other world events or markets. Any time it has occured in the past is because speculators and traders deduced or claimed such a connection on their own. Bitcoin is way too small and unweildy to be used for any kind of capital flight. Of course the USD price of bitcoin, however, will have minor deviations in its trend to adjust the forex value of the dollar measured by the US dollar index - arbitrage will ensure that.

What politicians say and what they actually do are two far too different things.
If Deutsche Bank will fall, they'll bail it out. And now they try to help it to not get there. The reduction of fine may be the result of this.

bitcoin is backed by fiat again, if DB down, fiat down then so do the bitcoin. we need the bitcoin backed by the commodity, before the bank crashes, or the bitcoin is dead again.

Germany has publicly said that they won't bail out any bank.
But if Deutsche Bank really looks to be collapsing, they will look at alternative means (other than bail out) to prevent its collapse.

Satoshi invented Bitcoin to give people a chance of avoiding exposure to another Lehman Brothers like collapse. If Deutsche bank fails people have Bitcoin's safety net, and will flock to it.

Deutsche Bank is big, sure, but no company is too big to fall. After economic crisis in 2008 many BIG financial institutions and services fall.
Have you heard about bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers? It was the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, with Lehman holding over $600 billion in assets!
The bigger they are the longer the fall.

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_Lehman_Brothers

Deutsche Bank is too big to fail in my opinion, it will get bailed out if anything shaky happens - I think that the negative press will certainly help the bitcoin price in this kind of situation, you can already see some movement with a lot of the altcoin prices falling as people are moving their funds back to BTC.

Deutsche Bank is Germany's only global bank, and it's big in America. Most worldwide banks have exposure to its debt, and if it falls it could bring them all down. If that happens the new worldwide banking rules let the failed banks bail themselves out by using customer's money to pay off the bank's debts.

No country wants to bail more banks out, so they all agreed to let the banks steal their customer's savings the next time they go bankrupt. There will be no government bailouts next time, and anyone who wants to keep their money safe will be looking at Bitcoin.

Every time when traditional banking, and finance sector is in trouble - bitcoin as an alternative is gaining. Weak FIAT = strong cryptocurrency.
Fall of Deutsche Bank will undermine people's trust in banks in general - if big bank like this can fall then people's money is not safe anymore.

DB crash would be bad for the euro and consequently good for bitcoin.  Currency volatility in general is also good for bitcoin since it opens arbitrage opportunities.

They're trying REALLY hard to keep it propped up right now, the media is saying that the DB is looking extremely bad under Merkle's germany. I think it'll be a while before anything big happens with it, however it is certainly shaky and I would say that almost anything can happen with it right now.

Expect the economies of basically everywhere to start getting rough really soon.

man forget of DB collapsing, it's one of the biggest bank of the world, with the most exposures on derivatives and the most important asset of the dax (probably eurostocks too). It will be rescued what ever happen, close that topic.

why good for the $? because euro will be weaker? i think deutesche has crashed also because they offer zero fees on everything but not sure, if that is only the case, and i don't agree on bitcoin, because bitcoin will always have a good run if something in fiat collapse, not the opposite like you said

The fine of $14bn had already been reduced to $5.4bn!
I doubt they will let that bank collapse. At least not as quick as many of us here hope.
Furthermore it's not just Deutsche Bank!Other banks having similar issues but get not pushed that much in the media so far.
I'm also not convinced that this could make Bitcoin skyrocketing. Bitcoin will have most and biggest success with it's own progress!!!
A financial collapse however could help to make alternatives like Bitcoin much more noticeable to the public.

DB crash is good for the $, and consequently, bad for bitcoin 

 Bitcoin got exposure from the Greek Crisis.

08/07/2015
Elliot Maras

 The same type of story ran on Reuter's, The Daily Mail, The Independent, CNN, Bloomberg, The Financial Post, CNBC, The Guardian, Fox News... etc

I hope you're right & bitcoin does prosper from a potential Deutsch Bank crash but how do we know there won't be somebody or something to save their ass?

I know the EU is fucked & will eventually crumble but we all got excited over Cyprus & Greece & they got away with it, bitcoin didn't get anything out of their misfortune.

 1. The DoJ levied a fine of $14b against Deutsche Bank for the mis-selling of sub-prime mortgage loans packaged as securities.  They had only set aside about $5b for this inevitability.

 1b. There are still many major banks in the EU that have to face the music.

 2. I'm not sure there is a correlation between the banking sector and Bitcoin although Bitcoin is touted as an alternative to central banking hence it would seem a safer haven when massive fines are being levied on the banks.

 Hey! It's a speculation thread not a rational speculation thread.  DYOD

Two questions, apologies if the answers are obvious:

1. Why is Deutsche Bank in such trouble? Why do believe it will fall so easily and so timely?

2. Why will Bitcoin "obviously skyrocket as a result"? More false predictions on this Forum than upticks of the price in a day!

Thanks.

 Don't worry, the US doesn't want to be responsible for another bank bailout - they can't afford it.  They'll simply lower the fine until Germany can bail out Deutsche Bank if required.



I think it will be great for Bitcoin though

It's a matter of time Deutsche Bank collapses, starting a new 2008 event, just worse. Bitcoin will obviously skyrocket as a result, the question is when is it going to face it's inevitable collapse? I reckon it's going to happen anywhere next year.