Topic: Did anyone notice this pattern? (Read 531 times)

It's weird that latest messages are a bit more like spam, it's a shame that spam is getting more and more common. However, back to talking about the pattern, that is definitely true and it will be exactly the same again if you ask me. I mean I have no proof, that's just my thought, I think that's what we will have, maybe I am right and maybe I am wrong I can't really say what's going to happen but I do believe that it could be quite good. I think it should be something that will benefit everyone. So, we should definitely look into it as important deal and could be considering the benefit as high as possible.

I believe that the best thing to do would be just hold our coins for now, if we can hold for now, for another 2 years or so, I believe that it will be way beyond ATH and make us a lot of profit. I think later stages of 2025 will be about 100k+ and then during 2026 we are going to have a major crash, it's good to have a pattern for ups, but always remember the downs too.

I paid $100 using Binance pay to a writer after checking the content it appeared AI generated. Is there a methods to claim a refund?

Sources:
https://pay.binance.com/en
https://easyaichecker.com/

What those influencers out there, what they are saying is just a something that will make investors to go into the market and invest more funds and the more investors are coming into the market it's more bitcoin  price is getting more promising or increasing in the market, so if altcoins influencers state positively about bitcoin especially the next bullrun, some people do because of social media predictions of bitcoin and get involved in purchasing more of bitcoin  against the bullrun because they know that if market get positive above the price they purchased their coins they will make profit, so as I said before that social media influencers deceived many people to get into the market, secondly we are not supposed to depend on the information of social media influencers because I know quite well that social media information is like predictions of bitcoin.

There's a clear pattern behind bitcoin's rise and it always comes after a halving, and a massive news/desirable trend or update about bitcoin. First it was ICOs, and then DeFi, last 2020 NFTs took the stage, and in 2024 if we're to expect another ATH it's possible that we're going to experience another trend in the cryptocurrency world that will most definitely die off in the next couple of years, to be superceded by another more valuable trend in the future bull run. It's always been like that for cryptocurrencies, not that it's a bad thing mind you.

I don't expect bitcoin to right away shoot up in value after the halving comes, there has to be a new trend that would come around and it may even take the whole year before a massive change in bitcoin's price to even arrive.

I've seen the same rainbow chart but it has broken down the lines so I guess this is a new one but with a different range.

The cycle has been always been followed and have been there every four years. But we don't know if the same trend and period of time when the bull run will enter.

It could be even earlier this time but we will about to see that next year.

Till date every halving have initiated the bullish move and the same have caused the market to reach new ath. Just on the same we cannot predict the price to reach new ath following the previous patterns of halving. With bitcoin the limited supply is a big factor that keeps the market progressive. There are people who had believed in the growth pattern to be the same and made decisions on their investment. Here people who had the ability to hold and maintain patience succeeded whereas the users who weren't able to hold it longer ended with minimal profit. So, it is all about the ability to hold that determines the profit amidst the growth/decline in the market.

Such a pattern cannot be denied but on the other hand it cannot be relied upon to be absolutely certain that such a prediction is a certainty.
Indeed for the last 3 halvings as you said all have relatively the same time and some people including some influencers also say that 2025 is most likely the next ATH but again, these are just some predictions that occur by looking at some pre-existing data but in the end we also cannot rely on this as a form of confidence that 2025 or mid-2026 could be ATH because it is only hope not certainty.

That is the only thing people have at their hands and that's why they are doing something like this. There is no argument that they won't be able to do it, we should consider that as a possibility and should be making as much profit as we possibly could from whatever we can predict.

I am not saying that all those predictions are right, but what is the other possibility, not trading at all? Just making up stuff? Sell or buy according whatever you feel like that day? None of that works, having a data historically is still better way to do than all those methods and that means we are going to end up with something that will profit people on the long term as well. If we are right, this is a good way to invest based on the past.

Very well said unto this. Because first, anything can happen in the market. Yes from where is the price right now which is the starting point, and then the ATH which is the other end of the point. The uncertainty is in the middle which is how can we get there. Is there any deep retracement first before going higher? Is it going higher directly? We don't know exactly. That's the law of uncertainty in trading.

The good news is, as long as you have faith with your initial investment and the projects you are supporting then all the wait and that uncertainty will be worth it.

 

Well, in context I'm not sure if are you quoting my narrative point of ETF or OP's point of the pattern. But I think in both scenarios, traders are not dumb, they really carefully analyze the market according to sentiments and major developments as well as the FA & TA. As far as it is concerned the buying pressure on the hype of ETF.

The buying pressure is not gonna created by the experienced trades as till that time most likely they would have filled up their bags and done with accumulation before, this pressure will be created by the Institutional investment capital and the new comers are gonna be all in on FOMO. That is really interesting how far this narrative is gonna support Bitcoin in reaching the ATH, Hmm also be ready to expect of unexpected  .

My fear is if ATH will actually hold this time around. The hype is accumulating, by the end of this year it will gear up the more and by the first quarter of next year we will be expectant of it. If this season's ATH fails, it will not be fair with the cryptocurrency market.
I have also read somewhere that this will be the highest halving in the recent time, which I consider as purely speculative.
The pattern noted by Op is verifiable and for it to happen in the past 3 halving, there is high tendency it will repeat this time around and that is the optimism of every bitcoiner.

Now, while your observations are fascinating, the dataset  is dangerously small. You have three distinct instances and you're attempting to draw a consistent pattern from them? Thats supposition, not analysis. And believe me, in the world of crypto, speculation can be as dangerous as misinformation.

With so little information, your faith in the "law of averages" could easily mislead you and anyone else who reads into it. But there is an exception: if enough people buy into this idea and act on it, it could very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Simply because a lot of traders anticipate a response, the market might act approprpiately. Therefore, even though your hypothesis is unproven, if enough individuals accept it, it has the potential to influence market behavior. But keep in mind that this is still dangerous. Dont get too comfortable.

Oh yeah, the large mining farms and ASIC owners of 2010 and 2014!
Definitely!


So, if:
John Alice and Dicky each have 10TH/s and they see the halving coming they each buy new gear in order to double...yelds...what???
Wait a minute!
If John had 10th/s which earned him 5$ at a cost of 2.$ , if he doubles the hashrate at the same cost as electricity isn't going to change in price he is going to make again 5$ but a ta cost of 4$, so how are this comparable yields?

Let's re-write this:
John Alice and Dicky had 30TH/s earning them 10$ at 3$ cost, now they are only earning 5$ at 3$ cost, they double their hashrate for a situation where they will have 60TH/s earning them 10$ but costing them 6$, so the only thing that comes clean out of this is that 10 years later and yous till don't know how mining works and it's again proof you've never run a business in your life!

Furthermore, in 2020 at the halving the hashrate was 115.27 EH/s, it took two years and five months till October 2020 for it to double at an average of 254.80 EH/s for the first time passing 230EH/s.

Write this down and repeat it every single time you have the opportunity, difficulty follows the price with a delay, the price never follows the difficulty!

You are kinda wrong about the 2020 halving.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.

This pattern is what everyone in crypto space are looking forward to. Majority of the people here knew it's going to be the post-halving where a new ATH will happen with an unprecedented range. I dont know if the law of averages can be applied in this kind of even, but it's more likely the market sentiments that's making a great impact to create this pattern. Pre-halving until the halving takes place is like an accumulation phase, then moving forward a few months the accumulation continues creating a gradual upward price movements, then a year after is where the bullrun officially starts.

Everyone here is waiting for the Bitcoin bull season, and almost all bitcoin investors know the Bitcoin halving after which the price of Bitcoin often starts to rise. If everyone is expecting Bitcoin to hit an all-time high right after the halving,I don't think it can happen immediately. Anything can happen in the crypto currency market, but it has not happened before.If you look at the history of Bitcoin,and if you look at the graph he made, Bitcoin never reached its peak immediately after the halving, but rather later.


Although everyone is expecting Bitcoin to reach an all-time high before the halving, it is unlikely in my opinion. As the majority of experts are predicting a 2024/2025 bull season, it seems impossible for Bitcoin to do so before the halving. It takes a year after halving, but chances of more years are low, so we should wait patiently. We often make assumptions based on our analysis, but our assessments are not necessarily correct every time, but history should not be ignored.

This hypothesis is also being discussed quite a bit on my local social networks. Many people think that when everyone knows and is waiting for the price to increase after halving to make a profit, who will buy bitcoin at a high price so we can take profit? I don't think the game will get easier and people will get rich so easily. But it's all just speculation and no one knows anything.

Personally, I still believe that history will repeat itself until we create new history. However, I always prepare myself for a historical scenario that will not repeat itself so that no matter what happens, I will not be surprised.

I think anyone noticing about the pattern the bull season of Bitcoin would be crazy since miner will get half portion of today reward and the newly minted coin will join circulation but not like previous year from now bitcoin will be scarce to get. Its like you mining gold but your pit is slowly not producing more gold.

I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined



Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

As per the replies, most of you guys did agree with the pattern. Does that mean we would see a bull run after approximately 1.3 years from halving? The current situation of Bitcoin ETFs and Elon Musk's tweet about Bitcoin might act as a catalyst to the bull run. I suspect that if it had to start it would have been now. What I firmly believe is that a bull run after the next halving would take place after 2 years. The current global economic situation does not make that ecosystem, to see Bitcoin breaking a new ATH in just 1 year or 1.3 years time after the halving. Do you guys agree with my point of view? If not then I would know the reason.

Bull season and ATH always appear 1 year or more after halving. That means we will have a sideways market after the halving but what I see people expecting more is that people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price immediately when the halving happens. Many people even think that when the halving is approaching, bitcoin will not be able to decrease any further and people will buy more, so the bitcoin price will soon recover and increase in price as soon as the halving takes place. This is the wrong thinking that many people are making. The future is unpredictable, but if we look to the past, we can see that bull season is still quite far away.

This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.

However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.

Although I don't discount the possibility that regular halving events have more or less significant effects on the price, it could indeed be true that the price is actually just moving up and down according to certain factors which are mostly external.

If we remove halving, how would the charts look like? It is possible that they would look almost exactly the same. The price rises, falls, consolidates, recovers, reaches an ATH, corrects, and so on and so forth with or without the halving. We put the halving schedules there and so it seems they play a significant role.

But what if 3 years after the halving next year, the US suddenly announces that Bitcoin is certified as a legal tender? Would it not create an ATH and break the pattern? Or what if months before the next halving, the SEC approves all Bitcoin spot ETF applications? Would it not be an external factor big enough to create an ATH and, again, surprise everybody who put too much weight on such pattern? Or what if 1-2 years after the halving, the US declared Bitcoin as illegal and everybody who is found using it shall be penalized? Would there still be a new ATH?

That is also what we are speculating for as again history repeats itself. That is why we are accumulating bitcoin right now because we do hope that the new ATH will happen again.
 
It is not guaranteed that it will happen again because what if it doesn't happen after halving which is the first time in history that it won't reach its price? But because of the adoption of the country right now we can really see that it will happen sooner.

It is as you say. I'm sick and tired of seeing past analyses of this style that break down at the next event. Even in this cycle ATH's predictions were much higher based on a repetition of price behaviour in past cycles. And all the predictions failed. Now as in this cycle the ATH has been much lower than in the previous cycle we have to intrude that variable and expect a more moderate return for the next one.

Regarding the halvings, as you say, the same thing. The OP takes an average of only 3 data. If the next cycle the ATH occurs 6 months after the halving or after 2 years or not at all, it will break the 1.3 year average to get a new ATH.

And china tore the heart out of the 2021 April move by shutting down 50% of the worlds hash.

So I would argue like you  may 2020 to April  2021 is 11 months  and that the cycle was broken by outside forces (China).

BTC seems to get ½ ing price shock in about 4 year cycle based on the ½ ing

So I would say

dec 2012 ½ ing
nov 2013 ath
may 2016 ½ ing
dec  2017 ath
may 2020 ½ ing
April 2021 ath

which does not match the op but does match reality closer

And one interesting aspect is that once traders are aware of that pattern now they can influence it, so if a lot of buying pressure is generated this could become a self-fulling prophecy, however if the buying pressure is not there it is possible many traders will take a position against it and the expected ATH may not happen at that date.

Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.

I am excited with OP discussing and seems will be true for upcoming halving time, its not instant progress raising all new high time for several kinds altcoin or Bitcoin its self and need time almost one year above for making new ATH. Since last three halving Bitcoin edition looks correct and possibility upcoming halving few months later will the same happening last halving edition or not? How possibility for new all time high price of bitcoin will raise up one year later or keep going without waiting longer time after halving bitcoin is coming.
Not only with tradition of halving only but also we have check with pattern and other potential from inside or outside to make Bitcoin will raise higher price or keep going down during have coming time with halving.

For me, even if we say yes, it's still not guaranteed especially since we can't identify or difficult to predict when it will happen, when we will experience that all-time high again.
There are a lot of things to consider now and basis, like volume we have now versus before, there are a lot of players right now versus before. There are a lot of people who have already been introduced to Bitcoin versus before.
So all-time high could be here very soon or maybe more time in the future, we don't know now.

If this cycle indeed materializes, it would pose a significant challenge to market manipulators. A pump to all-time high (ATH) prices should ideally occur without any follow-through momentum. In other words, the more speculation that arises, the stronger the opposing force will be to thwart their expectations and minimize losses caused by manipulators.

When the market genuinely gravitates towards the majority of speculators, it becomes a massive giveaway for Bitcoin holders. However, if the market doesn't align with the speculators, the likelihood of alternative plans being devised by insiders is a distinct possibility.

The pattern detected in the timing for the new ATH is a mathematical logic which is relating various sets of data one to the other, while the number of years needed for the new ATH is proportional to many other factors. For example, the trend of 1 to 1.5 years may have been marked by the market Cap and other factors like new adoptions.  I see a pattern has frequent repetition of an element in a set of data as a response to the changing factors in the system in which the pattern is observed. Absolutely, there is a repeating pattern here with respect to the new ATH, but the timing will always depend on the factors that controls the pattern. And that is predictable if one is able to apply an algorithm that can consider majority of the factors in order to make a forecast. The pattern will still be correct when we have mass adoption and the price become stable, I mean when the speculation is gone and  bitcoin got the mass adoption.

So based on the patterns you just identified the new Bitcoin ATH would potentially occur around April 2014 plus 1.2 to 1.5 years, which would place it in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. However, it's important to know that while this prediction is possible, it's also couldn't happen because we cannot accurately predict the future of Bitcoin.

The law of averages could indeed come into play as expected but there's always the possibility of unexpected market events during this time frame that could disrupt these patterns.

Your approximation is correct when we see the past ATH's but we not yet aware about the coming ATH and it could take place after halving for sure but still we can't determine an exact date for that event. I'm sure that after the halving event Bitcoin's price will continue to gain some momentum and it will continue to grow to good levels within short duration, but still it's next ATH is expected around 2024's last quarter to 2025's last quarter.

Yes, we can't say that the ATH will happen in 2025's first quarter because that predication will most probably be inaccurate. But, surely it will happen within 2 years after halving and once we see next ATH then once again we may see another bear market. The simplest reason that why Bitcoin reaches its ATH is when new people learn about it and they invest in it and when media or influencers promote it. Those type of promotions will be common after the halving event and people will once again invest a lot of money in whole crypto market to gain profits.

there are rational reasons

many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes). thus even though a halving changes the reward earned. the asic farms are not adjusting their price/value until their year-end audit when its time to file for taxes or upgrade hardware reaching its end-of-life.. thus they wont raise their prices until a year later when its time to shuffle funds about

the other factor is that when halvings occur there is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again there is a delay

but yes in short the pattern has real reasons.

however
now many are aware of the pattern, speculative traders are preparing for such occurrences and so by knowing a trading pattern can cause speculators to trade against the pattern to cause the pattern to change

Let's talk about differences.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.

Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.

I understand your excitement, but yes, I was aware of this pattern, even though I have used this information to reply to many questions here on BTT. If you would use the ninjastic tool then you will find them. The thing is, we can not use the law of average here, because ATH of BTC is not fixed and depends on many factors. As we all know BTC is decentralized and open source and is not pegged or backed by any assets. That's why it only depends on the demand and supply factors.

Of course, it depends on many other factors too but the main factor is D and S. I hope you will understand my point here.

I also got excited when I came to know about this information, which I did due to some topics here on BTT. And from then whenever I have to say something about Halving, I try to mention the dates of ATH too. But to be honest, I thought that, the ATH after first halving took around 6 to 8 months. But according to your information, it did not take 6 to 8 months.

in 2011 you were buying for something like 2 dollars so your 100x is 200 dollars. You could have that in Spring of 2013. Later that year the price reached 1000 (500x)
2015 was about 700 dollars. 7x would be close to 5000 so that's your 7x ROI reached in 2017.

Yes your math is off by a lot.


This doesn't mean anything.
This pattern could repeat but doesn't have to because what changes is the number of bitcoin users who learn from their mistakes. Knowing the halving brings ATH they will surely start investing much sooner this time and that could either lead to the longest bull run ever or to a short one that starts early and finishes early.

OP I think most of us are really familiar with such patterns as we used to observe such sorts of seasonal posts on social media,  But what's so eye-catching in it is it cant really change the current market sentiments except for bringing a bit of motivation to the newbies (for that as well I'm not sure will it work or not). The time cant be predicted exactly but we can judge the season according to the sentiments.

Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.

You are basically doing TA without using charts. The problem with TA is that it may never replicate the past events. It is like playing coin flipping. Just because you got tails 99 times in a row, doesn’t mean that it will be tails again in the 100th game. On the other hand we also know that history doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. Maybe this time there will be another ATH but it won’t happen in 1.5 years… maybe this time it will take 3 years… The real question is, what will you do if there isn’t a new ath for the next 3 years? Will you give up and sell or will you hodl?  TA is like writing a story book and then actually believing that it is real.

Already observing that pattern that always concludes a lot after halving then bitcoin will ATH in the range of 1-1.5 years this guess is not just one but many have been issued by several influential people, so although my speculation is a little bit leading to it but not too concerned with this pattern now.

I just need to focus on filling the bag before the preparation starts, maybe that's a better step than thinking about this pattern because it has no meaning for now.
Some are definitely waiting for the halving to happen and waiting for a while, they believe more in the end of 2024 or 2025 I'm not sure, with that pattern I guess there are still those who think the same.

Slow to the station, OP. Talked about often in these parts, hence the rubbishing by some (yours truly included) that this year or even next is the rally and ensuing bull run. Hey, plenty of time to fill those bags.

Completely arbitrary perhaps but I always feel that the halving effects are only realised later, even with pricing in, perhaps game theory dawns a bit after the fact, and the usual sheeple media piping it on months after it happens.

I agree with your stated points, Yes if this had occurred more than 3 times it would have been a reason to try to rely on this fact that the OP has pinpointed out on the thread,  however, on the other hand, I tend to agree with the OP because Bitcoin tends to follow some historical patterns in the past and likely we might see or get this scenario play out, but let's keep it on a watchlist.

You are correct in being cautious when it comes to predicting future price of Bitcoin or its all time high (ATH) as well as market trend. The idea that ATH tends to occur in a year following a Bitcoin halving event may appear probable based on historical trends, but there is no guarantee as Bitcoin always surprises us with unpredicted moves, which is its inherent nature.

I believe the condition of the global economy in 2024  will play crucial role in determining the timing of Bitcoin's all time high (ATH) event.

That pattern ain't a secret anymore. That's why we've got the so-called '4-year cycle' and from that cycle, that's how the market turns into a bull run after coming from a terrible bear market. But if there's another halving and bull run that's to be expected, 2021 was different from the past bull runs and that's why we might also see another different bull run approximately on 2025.

We're all speculating and you know what's the beauty of this market? Every law or theory that we believe that's gonna work to Bitcoin can be applied depending on the situation.

This pattern cannot be disputed, but what is more interesting here is that, before the halving, you will have the option to purchase bitcoin at a price that is lower.  It is more likely that it will not go beyond the price it was at the time of the halving. It may take a year or more for bitcoin to reach its new all-time high after halving, but if you can acquire it at a cheaper price, bitcoin achieving its new all-time high in one or more years will be in your advantage of a profitable outcome. This should not deter anyone who intends to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the halving and subsequently hitting the new ATH.

Reaching ATH is basically speculation, and your calculations are only about anything more specific than price.
I also noticed that pattern as a conclusion to my predictions, but that again would not contain any accuracy because ATH is not a cycle. Several major scenarios can further influence future pattern changes.

I suppose one could argue that with 2020 halving, a new ATH was reached earlier than 1.5 years after the event if you consider the time of peaking above the previous ATH point and not the eventual total peak before the bear market. But it's possible to look at it from your point of view and see this pattern as well. Of course, just 3 times isn't enough to say it's a regularity, but since we've got nothing left apart from a pretty short Bitcoin history, it makes sense to try to base our guesses on that data. But if the new ATH is reached around a year and a half after halving, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't recover earlier because it can reach a bit over the previous ATH significantly earlier even based on historical data, as it did only 7 months after halving of 2020.

Who's still not aware with such pattern?

There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.

New all time highs in the past usually occur 1 year or a little bit longer after a halving because halving is a stimulation for Bitcoin to appear more on media. It helps Bitcoin to be expose to more people and bring them as well as their capital to Bitcoin market.

It won't be seen after one night because people need time to research, have belief on something they hear of a first time, and surely need time for consideration before spending money to invest in Bitcoin. 1 year or 1.5 years, it is not too long but because you can not know where is the top, new all time high and even when it occurs, you can use past halving cycles and time needed to reach a new all time high for your plan to take profit in 2024 and 2025 bull run.

I was trying to find a certain date for the actual halving event as a stupid fool. I noticed that the date changes, as it all depends on the blocks. At the moment it is due in the month of March, earlier it was in the month of May next year. The next thing I did was to check the ROI of Bitcoin after every halving. The ROI, if anyone had bought Bitcoin before 2011 was 100x approximately from 2012 to 2016. if you bought Bitcoin in 2015 it would be 7X approximately in November of 2021. My math can be wrong and I am open to criticism about it.

Continuing with what I discovered, I saw a pattern while trying to find my actual objective. It is a pattern that might determine when Bitcoin will get a new ATH.

This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?