Topic: Did Satoshi expect Bitcoin to last this long? (Read 4461 times)

Obviously it was not a drunk idea.

Considering coin generation will end some time around 2140, it's safe to assume Bitcoin was expected to be around for a long, long time.

One of his famous posts states "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume.".

That quote suggests he expected it to either be massive, or a flop. He made no allowance for a middle ground where Bitcoin is popular, but not massively popular.

I feel like Satoshi put more time and effort than described in the scenario you put in the original post, but, I feel like the acceptance of Bitcoin was very unexpected. When someone from the general public were to hear about it, the idea seemed so far-fetched to have a decentralized currency. Mere speculation at this point, but to answer your question, no.

Well, not a joke. The Star Wars reference was a metaphor. Though not quite the same. I envisioned it circulating like Colonial Scrip did during the days of the Revolution. Instead of being forced to use the pound though you can replace it in todays terms in relation to legal tender laws and the debt backed US Dollar.

https://21stcenturycicero.wordpress.com/fraud/colonial-scrip/

"Each Colony had its own currency and some were better managed than others. It was banned by English Parliament in the Currency Act after Benjamin Franklin had explained the benefits of this currency to the British Board of Trade. Outlawing the circulating medium caused a depression in the Colonies, and Franklin and many others believed it to be the true cause of the American Revolution"

"After Franklin had explained…to the British Government as the real cause of prosperity, they immediately passed laws, forbidding the payment of taxes in that money. This produced such great inconvenience and misery to the people, that it was the principal cause of the Revolution. A far greater reason for a general uprising, than the Tea and Stamp Act, was the taking away of the paper money."

Anyway, when I came up with cryptocurrency I had envisioned a similar system as that of Colonial Scrip that would circulate alongside the Imperial US Dollar (the empire...Alex Jones like lol).

If he was Nick Sbazo and had played around with some previous models, then this might have been something he expected to become widespread few years down.

I guess it was only a prototype designed for funny. He did not expected anything from it!

Yes, because the mining process was purposely designed to take a long time. Though, what is surprising is the adoption and buzz already. I expected it to be out of Star Wars....like a rebel alliance type currency.

it is a big understatement to assume that bitcoin was a drunken university overnight project which caught on fast by chance. and it didn't cought on fast either, the idea and the work done on it is more than that

He also probably designed it to consume more and more power over time and cause much larger problems other than solving the problems in the economic and finance sector. The PoW method, over time, will consume a large portion of power of the world if bitcoin continues to go mainstream. If PoW remains to be the method of acquiring bitcoins, then we'll probably need another project to at least use those wasted power into something other than mining digital gold.

He designed Bitcoin in a way that the supply would keep being filled with new coins until year 2140... so yes, he expected it to change finances forever and to last more than we'll ever live and beyond.

Funny how almost everything he wrote on the whitepaper and on forums actually came true. I wonder how he did it, but I honestly believe that a single person couldn't achieve such a feat alone. It is possible that bitcoin's concept and code is made by a group and not only an individual.

no it isn't, he was talking precisely about big farms in the future, so he was expecting something, he was expecting that bitcoin would last many years, this mean a partial success at the very least

also he was talking about the 10 min confirmation, what that thing could have caused, and he say that it would not be a problem, because of node propagation ecc..

every word he wrote makes you immediately think how he foreseen everything about bitcoin in the future

This statement got me. The Proof Of Work method of minting new coins is actually a bit of a stretch to the world's ever increasing power consumption. As difficulty goes up, more and more machines need to solve complex mathematical equations so as to mint new coins, which I think isn't feasible in terms of power consumption. It will require more and more power, and that means we could easily deplete our resources faster than ever. I don't know but as I view it, the demands for power to produce new bitcoins is kinda alarming.

Bitcoin could have been just a problem he had solved; an experiment he had unleashed.
He would definitely liked his creation to succeed, but we won't know whether he expected it to.

in my opinion, i think he expected this because you wouldn't make a currency if you are just planning to use it just for a year right?

Or he is one of us, pretending to be someone else. Maybe a big exchange admin...impossible to say

I think yes, Satoshi expects that this project will be a good project. Because, a great successful project come with a great idea too. So If he didn't serious with this project or just like you said "he made this when he drunk", Bitcoin will not last this long

I think so too. Maybe even decades.

I think he was expecting for years that the BTC will be a successful and useful to the economy.

I don't belive it. For a lot of times btc was related to DarkMarkets, washing money and all crime-actions you can think. Just becaouse it is a decentralized, anonymous, and fast wway to send big amount of money whitout any issue.