Did the Bitcoin pump to $63K have anything to do with the US Fed rate cut?

YUriy1991

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 21, 2024, 10:11:19 PM

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

The result today we can see together the impact of the interest rate cut or let's say the easing of economic policy and the result of the market on all up and for BTC in particular today it is already in the price range of $64, 278 and It could be that the interest rate cut will be continued again this year where the cut or the range of many predictions could be up to 100 bps.

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I don't know why people feel much concerns in anything that has to do with bitcoin, and U.S government, I have said this severally that bitcoin is a decentralized currency and something U.S government can do is only to regulate her currency not cryptocurrency, neither bitcoin pump high or pump low I think it does not have to do with anything that relates with U.S are you people aware that we have different countries and it doesn't mean that government of U.S will determine the decision of world, so if u.s is against bitcoin with their respective reasons it doesn't have any serious impact on bitcoin.

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Quote from: asriloni on September 21, 2024, 10:23:39 PM

It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

I don't think MicroStrategy buying of bitcoin is strong enough to cause a major push in price because there have been several instances where they purchased bitcoin yet price remained the same. Although their large purchase give some level of confidence to other holders, bitcoin need a fundamental that is stronger than that to move the market. In my opinion, I will be the Fed rate cut that might trigger such move because when interest rate is reduced, investors their money from the US currency market to stocks, cryptocurrency and other commodities. This is how the market operates because investors are looking for where to make higher yield.

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Quote from: Smartprofit on September 23, 2024, 07:47:56 AM

Bitcoin is denominated (valued) in US dollars. Accordingly, a weakening of the US dollar leads to a strengthening of the first cryptocurrency (an increase in its value). The Fed's discount rate (refinancing rate) is the rate at which the Fed gives loans (credits) to commercial banks.

Investors no longer seek to hold US dollars for the purpose of saving, but are more willing to put them into circulation. All this strengthens Bitcoin and leads to an increase in its price.

It's correct and people can look at DXY as one of indicators for market prediction and make their investment or trading plans especially trading plans.

The chart of Bitcoin price and DXY.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/84646/BITCOIN-vs-US-DOLLAR-INDEX-DXY

Look at it, and you can see an opposite correlation and trend of Bitcoin and DXY. DXY affects other markets too, not only Bitcoin market.

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Quote from: Smartprofit on September 23, 2024, 07:47:56 AM

Yes, of course, a decrease in the Fed rate, as a general rule, leads to an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
~snip~

I will not say that this move does not have an indirect effect on the price of BTC, but perhaps it is better to look at it similarly to the effects of halving, in other words, to take into account that some time should pass before investors start using the benefits of "cheap money". In addition, the announcements coming from the FED suggest that there will be at least one more rate cut by the end of this year, which means that some investors may not react immediately but will wait for an even more favorable opportunity.

Regardless of everything else, I think that the presidential elections in the US cause the greatest uncertainty among investors and that many will be cautious until the results of those elections are known.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on September 22, 2024, 06:36:35 AM

Lately, there have been many coincidental event which I can not state the one that must have contributed to the price pump. @OP, apart from this event that you have described, I read that micro strategy acquired about 18,300 Bitcoin just between last month and the 12th day of this month. We also see the news that is every where concerning Trump paying for a burger with Bitcoin, which he was not even the one that made the payment himself. Any of those news must have caused the price to pump.

I doubt if these two events contributed immensely to this increase in price we are experiencing currently. Michael Saylor has been buying Bitcoin periodically, and it has not affected the price the way it did recently. The market is already used to the happenings in the US presidential elections. Hence, Trump buying a burger with Bitcoin was insignificant. The main reason is the interest rate cut by the FEDs. Before the meeting that led to the decision, we say the attention the media and traders gave to the event. The meeting was very important to almost all the economic sectors in the world since the US is a dominant force in the global space.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 21, 2024, 10:11:19 PM

"A 50 basis point rate cut means a reduction in interest rates by 0.50% (since 1 basis point equals 0.01%). When the Federal Reserve or any other central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points, they are reducing the cost of borrowing by half a percentage point."

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

The FED's monetary interest rate policy change has certainly had a positive impact for the Bitcoin price to rise to 63K in recent times. We generally understand that if the demand for Bitcoin increases, then the price of Bitcoin will increase. Bitcoin's green signal is only seen when investors collectively show interest in the same venture. But no one knows when ordinary investors will show interest. However, the big news of the economic world has an impact on them. Business-related news, both negative and positive, has a major impact on the crypto market. There are many investors in cryptocurrency who invest with loans if the interest rate is reduced it will definitely be a profitable decision for the investors and the more positive news there is in the cryptocurrency market, the more investors will regain confidence and increase their investment.

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It is impossible not to have anything to do with what the FED has done recently. Investors may turn to Bitcoin, causing purchases to increase in number. If almost all investors in every country continue to experience an increase in buying Bitcoin, then according to the law of supply and demand, an increase in price can occur. He continued, there was news that Microstrategy had again bought Bitcoin in a large amount.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on September 22, 2024, 02:12:17 AM

The two reasons associated with the recent bull run that I read on the news are:

The Bank of Japan’s maintenance on steady interest rates
The United States Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut.

So I will say that you are still correct.

Quote from: asriloni on September 21, 2024, 10:23:39 PM

It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

There are times Saylor bought bitcoin but bitcoin price did not increase. It could also be part of the reasons this time as all news were positive but saying the US federal rate cut is not part of it is wrong.

It could also be partly due to the fact of Larry Fink CEO of Blackrock is seen further endorsing bitcoin all the time even recently when it went up to 63k, a mixture of the Fed's rate cuts and simply because we are historically heading into another bull market if you look at the charts before all former halvings we are about 20 days out from bull market.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 21, 2024, 10:11:19 PM

Just recently, the 50 basis point rate cut was approved, lowering the target federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

For those who haven't read about it, here's a quick definition:

"A 50 basis point rate cut means a reduction in interest rates by 0.50% (since 1 basis point equals 0.01%). When the Federal Reserve or any other central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points, they are reducing the cost of borrowing by half a percentage point."

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

Yes, of course, a decrease in the Fed rate, as a general rule, leads to an increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is denominated (valued) in US dollars. Accordingly, a weakening of the US dollar leads to a strengthening of the first cryptocurrency (an increase in its value). The Fed's discount rate (refinancing rate) is the rate at which the Fed gives loans (credits) to commercial banks.

Commercial banks, in turn, give loans to legal entities and individuals at a higher rate. Thus, a decrease in the discount rate leads to cheaper loans and credits, which stimulates the economy, leads to an acceleration of the turnover of fiat currency and, accordingly, makes the US dollar cheaper.

Investors no longer seek to hold US dollars for the purpose of saving, but are more willing to put them into circulation. All this strengthens Bitcoin and leads to an increase in its price.

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Honestly, Bitcoin shows positive intent on any development which is a positive sign for the risk investment markets. In my view yup, there's a high possibility that this development pushed the investor's emotions. The market moved from a strict zone to a recovery zone above 62k still before 64k support we are hanging between two resistance and support zones but it's much better compared to August.

In genral, we are on the good track, for the rest we can wait patiently only.

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Quote from: Lucius on September 23, 2024, 05:13:42 AM

Don't go to sleep, it could happen very soon Wink

I will only be a little "excited" when we reach the new ATH, and the real reason for a little celebration will only be at $100k - everything else is nothing new that we haven't seen for months. It is enough to look at the charts, everything is clear and a picture speaks a thousand words.

People mostly have weak hands and they have bad ability to hold after bearing some months of bear and corrections. What will happen next months will be a smaller version of how people react after Bitcoin has two bearish years and start its recovery from bottom. They want to exit immediately when they see price soars like 20% or 30%, and they did not care that Bitcoin will recover to its ATH of a past bull run, 2 or 3 years ago.

Now they don't care it too and many of them will miss a new ATH and they don't know that best time to exit is when there are massive new participants joining this market.
Google Trend search chart does not show this trend now https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en-US

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It might be but it is with cumulative factors by the buying pressure that made the price move up with the contribution of the fed rates cut.

Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 22, 2024, 05:33:37 PM

From what I’ve been reading, it seems like the US Fed rate cut is being pointed to as the cause of this "pump".

Every event and news that comes out recently seems to be the reason pointed out by anybody that analyzes the market. Saylor buying more, FED cutting rate, soon the Trump/Harris election battle, and so on.

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on September 22, 2024, 12:33:17 PM

~snip~
Or maybe we have no damn clue what happened. It's a "small pump". Wake me up when we experience more than 10% "pump".

Don't go to sleep, it could happen very soon Wink

I will only be a little "excited" when we reach the new ATH, and the real reason for a little celebration will only be at $100k - everything else is nothing new that we haven't seen for months. It is enough to look at the charts, everything is clear and a picture speaks a thousand words.

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I'd say it did help the price of bitcoin increased because of the fed rate cut but we should also consider microstrategy owning more bitcoin when MS buying more bitcoin that's why I think it's also one of the reason why the price of bitcoin increased from 50k+ up to today's price of btc.

Quote from: pooya87 on September 22, 2024, 05:21:35 AM

Pump?!!!

Price barely went up 1%-2%, that is not even considered a tiny rise let alone be a "pump". Not to mention that bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoin to have pumps and dumps...

This is just the continuation of the recovery from the crash we had back in August when price dropped down from $65k all the way down to $52k. Since September 6, the price has been recovering from that bottom and has slowly been inching back toward $65k again (currently $62k-ish).

A "pump" the way you have in mind would be price rising up above $70k level.

If It were me then I'd just use the word price increase or price recovering since the price did not increase a lot to be considered as pump and it stopped the price of bitcoin decreasing more.

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A lot of traders started scaling into longs the day before the rate costs were announced so yes, rate cuts had everything to do with the market growth in the last one week. A lot of people here in the thread are saying it was because of Saylor's buys but Saylor bought the last time Bitcoin was at a $65,000 print. Did the price move above $65000 to $70K+? No, it didn't. I'd argue the Saylor buy didn't had some effect but not as those 50 bps rate cut. A confirmation of this is how bullish all markets have been since that announcement (Bitcoin, Crypto, Stocks, equities, etc).

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Quote from: o48o on September 22, 2024, 03:12:39 PM

But i agree that 70k is going to be tough psychological resistance level to break, and if i had to guess, i would say that we are bouncing sideways for a while. That will probably create altcoin fomo, which eventually ends by bitcoin mooning, and people panic moving their money to it.

It’s tough, but if the current momentum continues, we might break that wall, and Bitcoin could set another ATH. Maybe this time the real FOMO for altcoins will happen, and we’ll see a bull run for them too. The last time Bitcoin broke its ATH, the reaction from the altcoin market wasn’t as strong compared to the bull run a few years ago. From what I’ve been reading, it seems like the US Fed rate cut is being pointed to as the cause of this "pump".

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Quote from: pooya87 on September 22, 2024, 05:21:35 AM

Pump?!!!

Price barely went up 1%-2%, that is not even considered a tiny rise let alone be a "pump". Not to mention that bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoin to have pumps and dumps...

This is just the continuation of the recovery from the crash we had back in August when price dropped down from $65k all the way down to $52k. Since September 6, the price has been recovering from that bottom and has slowly been inching back toward $65k again (currently $62k-ish).

A "pump" the way you have in mind would be price rising up above $70k level.

Still, that broke trough resistance level in btc/usd chart (if you believe in such things meaning anything). And traders are probably getting optimistic, because it broke the feared downfall pattern. Chart actually looks promising now.

But i agree that 70k is going to be tough psychological resistance level to break, and if i had to guess, i would say that we are bouncing sideways for a while. That will probably create altcoin fomo, which eventually ends by bitcoin mooning, and people panic moving their money to it.

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It could be interest rates. Or Michael buying just a regular billion, with his morning coffee. Or Trump realizing that Bitcoin is beyond "computer coin"; it's a currency! Or recovery. Or maybe a secret billionaire entered the space.

Or maybe we have no damn clue what happened. It's a "small pump". Wake me up when we experience more than 10% "pump".

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Firstly, I think the price of BTC is still expected to pump irrespective of the various volatilities that could have contributed to the current pump. The halving already happened and we are still seeing the price rise to about $83,000 before or during the U.S elections in November.

Yes, the U.S Fed rate cut, among other reasons like Trump making a public use of #1000 in Bitcoin to purchase some burger and drinks, and even Michael Saylor of Microstrategy purchasing bitcoin and owning about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin circulation, could be all reasons for the pump.

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It was definitely US Fed Rate Cut as a good news always pumps up the Bitcoin Price however it was also price action, those who are not into Technical Analysis will never agree to this however there are very important support and resistance zones when you look at the Bitcoin Chart. Bitcoin was at the Support Range and I even made a thread about it. So, it was just waiting for one bullish news to execute.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 21, 2024, 10:11:19 PM

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

That is much more likely because with lower interest rates, people will have the opportunity to invest and automatically there will be a lot of liquidity flowing in the market. This is what is called polarization towards the long term is much better because there are some conditions where interest rates are lower even though it can be said that it is not too low for interest rates overall. But maybe we should also remember that bitcoin is not the same as other coins where there is a pump under certain conditions.

The recovery point may continue to be maintained and even if the downward scenario occurs again, it will not go beyond the limit. Bitcoin is more attractive and strong now so many people are coming to take part and that is why bitcoin will continue to be the best investment.

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Quote from: fuguebtc on September 22, 2024, 09:56:59 AM

That is definitely going to happen, I believe bitcoin will be dumped heavily if the economy goes into recession because bitcoin is not an effective inflation hedge or safe haven. Remember 2022 when inflation hit our economy? Bitcoin has also dropped to $15k and lost 70% of its value while assets considered as the top inflation hedge like gold have held their value very well and even increased. So I wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin prices do even worse if a global recession hits.

If bitcoin can operate independently of the global economy and is not affected by any macro news, then I am more convinced that every move of bitcoin is manipulated, and that's worse than it becoming a part of the global economy.

It's more like a Bitcoin's pattern instead of macro economy news.

Take a look with 2017 ATH, in the next year Bitcoin price drop without any reason.

It's similar to 2021, in the next year Bitcoin price drop too.

So, if Bitcoin make new ATH in the next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin dump in the next two years because that's the pattern.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on September 21, 2024, 10:11:19 PM

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

Well, there's chance that the price cut that you mentioned might be the cause of Bitcoin's price appreciation, however, no one knows well the real reason behind the growing value of Bitcoin. I guess, we're at the end of September and there's chance to see Bitcoin going even higher in value in month of October. But, the recent news of FTX crediting might cause some dips in the market and if that happen then it will take market some time to recover itself.

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Quote from: Catenaccio on September 22, 2024, 07:11:19 AM

If Bitcoin pumps because of FED rate cut decision, it will dump when FED announces a technical recession or a recession. We all know that whole world are in recession, and technical recession term is used by some governments recent months, is only a misleading word to minimize severity of recession and panic in community.

That is definitely going to happen, I believe bitcoin will be dumped heavily if the economy goes into recession because bitcoin is not an effective inflation hedge or safe haven. Remember 2022 when inflation hit our economy? Bitcoin has also dropped to $15k and lost 70% of its value while assets considered as the top inflation hedge like gold have held their value very well and even increased. So I wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin prices do even worse if a global recession hits.

If bitcoin can operate independently of the global economy and is not affected by any macro news, then I am more convinced that every move of bitcoin is manipulated, and that's worse than it becoming a part of the global economy.

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Just the usual expected price movements, not a pump in my opinion, and I don't think it has anything to do with the US Fed rate cut. At this rate we are going to reach a point where if Bitcoin price changes by 0.5%, then it has something to do with some Government decision or stuff like that Cheesy

By the time of the conference, the price was already on its way up from the most recent dip if you look at the longer time frames on the chart.

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Quote from: asriloni on September 21, 2024, 10:23:39 PM

It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

Saylor's buy made Fed rate cut effects become obsolete for bitcoin.

In as much as both of them can’t directly influence a pump directly they can actually influence the market sentiment, Michael Saylor has always been buying bitcoin at every dip price and it isn’t moving anyone, the announcement of him get a new purchase was done a day after the fed rate cuts, bitcoin had a spike to $63k from $59k after the Fed rate announcement so he isn’t actually influencing anything.

Quote from: Catenaccio on September 22, 2024, 07:11:19 AM

If Bitcoin pumps because of FED rate cut decision, it will dump when FED announces a technical recession or a recession. We all know that whole world are in recession, and technical recession term is used by some governments recent months, is only a misleading word to minimize severity of recession and panic in community.

Should I say that the news of either actually caused a little shift of market sentiment, I could recall in August when it was announced that there is a possibility of recession, the looming recession news caused a little dip then and just as how the market reacted to the fed cut again. The question actually is whether this little movement are actually worthy of been called a pump or dump which I don’t agree on. A significant movement should be a movement of $10k plus movement.

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Quote from: pooya87 on September 22, 2024, 05:21:35 AM

Pump?!!!

Price barely went up 1%-2%, that is not even considered a tiny rise let alone be a "pump". Not to mention that bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoin to have pumps and dumps...

Bitcoin is not a pump and dump coin, and it will never be.

Pump and dump are for altcoins, or in other words shitcoins and scam coins that are created easily with premined, mint functions and they are all easily die.
Of the over 24,000 cryptocurrencies listed on CoinGecko since 2014, 14,039 have died.

If Bitcoin pumps because of FED rate cut decision, it will dump when FED announces a technical recession or a recession. We all know that whole world are in recession, and technical recession term is used by some governments recent months, is only a misleading word to minimize severity of recession and panic in community.

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Lately, there have been many coincidental event which I can not state the one that must have contributed to the price pump. @OP, apart from this event that you have described, I read that micro strategy acquired about 18,300 Bitcoin just between last month and the 12th day of this month. We also see the news that is every where concerning Trump paying for a burger with Bitcoin, which he was not even the one that made the payment himself. Any of those news must have caused the price to pump.

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Quote from: asriloni on September 21, 2024, 10:23:39 PM

It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

Saylor was really optimistic about buying Bitcoin because he believes the "iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)" will be trading on NASDAQ soon. This could lead to more institutional adoption, which he says will stabilize the price. In a way, it still feels connected to the government since we’re talking about institutional investors here.

Quote from: hugeblack on September 22, 2024, 02:36:15 AM

Although interest rates have been cut, the interest rate is still high, with the range between 4.75% and 5% still high, but in the long run it is good news that the interest rate will be lower and therefore there is more liquidity flowing into the market, some of this liquidity may go to Bitcoin.

It is a long term effect and all short term effects are psychological factors.

We need more organic investors for Bitcoin, real people driving massive adoption----not just institutions that would end up in control at the top and likely manipulate the market. That's something we definitely don't want to see.

Quote from: pooya87 on September 22, 2024, 05:21:35 AM

Pump?!!!

I might have chosen the wrong words, but I think we’re seeing a pretty significant increase right now--------enough to stir up some hype and make people believe that the bull run is back again.

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I thought that the reason was that the great crypto messiah watched some two incompetents try to buy something with Bitcoin, and then they attributed the transaction to him, which is somehow tragic, the man doesn't even know what QR codes are Roll Eyes

What have we come to when people think that a price increase of 4-5% should be called a pump...

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Pump?!!!

Price barely went up 1%-2%, that is not even considered a tiny rise let alone be a "pump". Not to mention that bitcoin is not a pump and dump shitcoin to have pumps and dumps...

This is just the continuation of the recovery from the crash we had back in August when price dropped down from $65k all the way down to $52k. Since September 6, the price has been recovering from that bottom and has slowly been inching back toward $65k again (currently $62k-ish).

A "pump" the way you have in mind would be price rising up above $70k level.

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In theory, the Fed's rate cut means that inflation is under control, the economy has recovered, and monetary policy will be loosened in the coming period. So this can be considered as the most important news for our economy and that is why the news of Fed rate cut received global attention. Not only bitcoin, if you look at the gold market, stocks...you will also see that gold has broken the peak, stock indexes have reached ATH. It's all part of the economy so there's no denying that rate cuts have had an impact on bitcoin's recent growth.

This also shows that the government has a significant impact on the development of bitcoin as well as the cryptocurrency industry, but many people still believe that bitcoin does not need government support or is not affected by government policies.

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Although interest rates have been cut, the interest rate is still high, with the range between 4.75% and 5% still high, but in the long run it is good news that the interest rate will be lower and therefore there is more liquidity flowing into the market, some of this liquidity may go to Bitcoin.

It is a long term effect and all short term effects are psychological factors.

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Yeah it had something or part of the reason it pumped.
Reducing interest rate makes investment more attractive and unlike those buy the rumor and sell the news
This is different and the effect is gradually creeping in.
Many countries are taking interest rate to a level that could encourage investment like the ECD did.
I'm quite positive for the remaining month of this year.

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The two reasons associated with the recent bull run that I read on the news are:

The Bank of Japan’s maintenance on steady interest rates
The United States Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut.

So I will say that you are still correct.

Quote from: asriloni on September 21, 2024, 10:23:39 PM

It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

There are times Saylor bought bitcoin but bitcoin price did not increase. It could also be part of the reasons this time as all news were positive but saying the US federal rate cut is not part of it is wrong.

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It's Saylor who has anything to do with Bitcoin pump, not Fed rate cut.

Saylor's buy made Fed rate cut effects become obsolete for bitcoin.

Ziskinberg

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Just recently, the 50 basis point rate cut was approved, lowering the target federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

For those who haven't read about it, here's a quick definition:

"A 50 basis point rate cut means a reduction in interest rates by 0.50% (since 1 basis point equals 0.01%). When the Federal Reserve or any other central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points, they are reducing the cost of borrowing by half a percentage point."

In short, with lower interest rates, people have more opportunities to invest. Since Bitcoin is one of the most popular investments right now, many are linking this rate cut as one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price surged.

Topic: Did the Bitcoin pump to $63K have anything to do with the US Fed rate cut? (Read 397 times)