Topic: Diff thread Aug 2 to Aug 16. Picks are yet to start. prize =0.00 (Read 5655 times)

And boom it is done.  we did a +7.67% jump to an all time high of 217.3 diff.  Plus we dropped about 40 usd from 600 to 560.
The only good news is between a few donations and partial recovery of my 700 in coins with Bitfinex I can afford to start the next game with prize money  I will do $25.00 usd a jump until first game after  Oct. 1

   I will raise prizes slowly after that.



 Difficulty History

Date...........   Difficulty...........   ..Change.....   Hash Rate

Aug 15 2016   217,375,482,757   7.67%   1,556,034,316 GH/s



Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com


this will be locked
here is new thread.
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1586699.new#new

Well I pay 6 cents and it is cheap for many miners around here.

Maybe we are about to see some drop in the hashrate but it doesn't look to be the case. I'm going to mine with my A6 and S7 as much as i can for sure.

I just hope the A7 bring the S9's price down ... for now i'm sitting on what I have.

 well one thing for sure there are a lot of s-7's on the fence  of in the black to in the red. along with avalon 6's

and the network is mostly s-7's and avalon 6's   maybe 900ph between them

with coins at 565 usd  and diff soon to be 217-218 a cheap power guy has a harder choice does he just mine his older gear or does he grab s-9's  maybe he waits for avalon 7's

a lot of the problem for a cheap power guy is the s-7 is .25 watts and the s-9 is .1 watts
I can see that the s-7 is now pretty weak if your power is 6 cents.

a 10  cent per K-watt miner is in the red right now
a  9 cent per k-watt miner will be in the red in about 2 hours with the jump

an 8 cent per k-watt miner will be in the red when we reach 253 diff

a drop in price to under 525 will put more pressure on s-7  miners.  a lot of gear will soon be out of date.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
15.08.2016 16:10   425361

2001   Blocks 7.81%   217669149604

and 15 blocks to go. it will be between 7 - 8 % .

well we are winding up a really bad jump.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:   217,657,112,466 (+7.81%)
Adjust time:   After 30 Blocks, About 4.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,652,865,526 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   10:20 (2.3 minutes ago)

certain to be 7% maybe 8%

and coins were at 606 at the start 

so 568/606 = price .937 x diff 0.92 = 0.8623    translation  if you were earning 100 a day at the start of this jump you are now earning 86.23  a day.

right now an s-7 needs 6 cent power to earn 1.29 usd a day   in six hours or so that s-7 will earn 1.05 usd a day.

there is a lot of s7 gear  and of course avalon 6 gear all getting squeezed.

Phil we have 136 blocks left.  So we must be going up as it is about 12 hours since you posted.   81 blocks in 12 hours would be 162 in one day. 

yeah  looks like the heat is on.

we are spiking upwards and we will close out the jump at an all time high diff of 214-216
we have 217 blocks left  so sometime this monday

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
14.08.2016 07:34   425132


1772   Blocks Next Diff Rise: 6.72%    Next Diff: 215461231381

Glad to hear about loss being less for you and other's.  I think this is a good thing for BTC price aswell hopefully with less of a loss we will see a smaller sell off of people who are scared.   I will admit i was very scared when BFX news came out one being hacked and price was dropping we really have had some scary times over little time.

Current price on coinbase is at 586 which I am not to disappointed with considering all that has went on.   I really hope this continues and we see it go up above 600 again that is a nice base to have.   Also on a side note on ETH it has not been to bad on value considering the whole ETC coming out of it, so again more stability for miners.  So I am hoping we see more good news next difficulty period for miner's. Biggest thing just hoping we can go a while till another big bad news as news really seems to be able to rock BTC in huge way's.

Today I sold 50 of the remaining 200 BFX tokens  I recovered 17 more dollars.

I think I am down about 190 usd  of 700 usd.

Someone donated 0.05btc towards new prizes  so thats about 29 usd. some one else said they will donate more to me.

Would make me down 161 usd.

I skipped a 50 dollar prize  so I am down 111 usd.   

So  next jump I am starting the prizes back at 25 usd. Hoping to restore back to 50 usd  in Oct.


Back to todays numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:   214,114,504,494 (+6.05%)
Adjust time:   After 336 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,514,014,446 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   12:50 (1.7 minutes ago)

and the spike is returning



but  look at the last  jumps


Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty.................Change.........Hash Rate

Aug 15............213 ?


Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


soon to be 213 again

pretty flat

If you go from May 12 at 194.25   to Aug 29  at 213  this would be   109 days  and a move from 194.25 to 213.00

thats 8 jumps at a pace of 1.2%

 1.012 x 1.012 =
 1.024144 x 1.012 =
 1.036433728 x  1.012 =
 1.048870932736 x 1.012 =
 1.06145738392883 x 1.012 =
 1.07419872535980 x 1.012 =
 1.08708521100641 x 1.012 =
 1.10013023353849 x 1.012  x 194.25 =   213.7 diff   on aug 15 or 15 lasting to aug 29-30

so   we are averaging only 1.2% the longer this lasts the better it is for the early s-9 buyers ie me and buysolar in the solar array.

rumor has it avalon will have new gear in Sept..   if we get low jumps after the current one  say in the 1 to 2% number  on aug 30 sept 15 and sept 30  my early s-9's will have been  a decent buy.


It will be good to start the contest back with prizes next jump.  I want to thank the donors for their donations.

Hope it works out as planned for you phil!

I moved all the etc and all the eth.  about 30 of each


I have 239  in bfx   which would be the replacement coin

I sold 39 of them.

I left 200 in BFX

that is worth about 57 usd at the moment.

My loss would be about 250 usd if I cash  those remaining BFX coins out..    If I leave them be  they could rally a bit.

So my choices are fully cash out certain loss of 200usd right now

Partial   cash out leave the 200 BFX  worth  57 usd and hope for it to rally.    this would mean  my max loss would be 257 usd if it zeros out.

I pulled out    about  440 usd in coins.

So I saved 440usd already.  I am incline to leave the 200 BFX intact for  a while  .   Hope for it to go upwards from 57 usd to 250 usd  then pull it out.

Great news !

We are back with a missive spike down. Bitmain's manipulation ?

It's soooo strange ...

Hey philip, glad to hear you didn't get totally jacked!  Once you get your hands on your funds you'll be moving them out of Bit-f-up, right?  I can't believe anyone would even consider doing business with them anymore after yet another fiasco.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... You know the rest.

yeah 3% would be decent

As for some good news  It looks like I will recover ⅔ of my money  from bitfinex.

Maybe I lose  250 vs 700 usd.

I think I will start prizes back  in Sept.  at 25 usd each jump.

Looks like the difficulty is trending towards 3% with 3.5 days to go.

That would be a reasonable increase. Let's hope it holds here or keeps trending down.

and 320 + 120 + 40 = 480  maybe 500

at 2 cent power that is more then 200 days for an s-7 to roi

The 320$ price doesn't include the PSU. They corrected it later on.

Sadly looks like it went back up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    212,485,992,334 (+5.25%)
Adjust time:    After 666 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,416,154,256 GH/s

Even if we see a drop I will want a little bit of time to confirm it.  With Bitmain offering the new S7 + PSU for 50 MOQ order's they could be unhooking and selling them to outside companies.  So temporary drop off from sales of S7 in bulk, but the bad thing is they will be plugged in + chances are Bitmain upgrades internal meaning even more hash on network.

So I think temporary drops from shipping of gear but I could be all wet on my guess.

Well it is certainly trending that direction.  666 blocks to go as of this typing, I think we could even come close to even adjustment this period, but there could be some negative carry over to the next period.  The hash will come back again, it always does/has.

We are under 5% 


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   201,893,210,853

Estimated Next Difficulty:   211,595,784,384 (+4.81%)
Adjust time:   After 683 Blocks, About 4.6 days

Hashrate(?):   1,400,753,430 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   9:50 (4.7 minutes ago)


Be funny if it drops to 2% or less

hey maybe my favorite number, 5.5, will come up this time.

OH WAIT now that i mentioned it everyone will pick 5.5

seriously though some interesting theories on why hash rate has done what its done have been in these threads. hope they never stop. even with no prize they are fun threads.

well we dropped more now 5.63%  maybe with luck we go to 5%

Coinbase is at 595 so we are climbing which is nice we got close to 600 and it seems a few sold and went down a few dollar's.  But pretty amazing to watch if you would have asked right after Bitfinex what was going to happen I would not have guessed it would stablize so well in a short period of time. I thought it was going to be a big upset luckily I did not go crazy selling at lower prices. 

Difficulty is not horrible but seeing such a good price on S7 + psu from bitmain scares me a little bit but no way to know effect yet.  We could see lot's of S9's fire up for them internally we really just don't know.  Here is current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    213,880,729,556 (+5.94%)
Adjust time:    After 756 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,448,201,037 GH/s

On a side note even if we do thread with no prize from here on out I hope we keep it going.  I really feel here is where I talk to others a lot about difficulty and a lot of bitcoin speculation, so hope it keep's going.  I think it's a worthwhile thread it is part of what got me into Ether with comparisons into it, and I have had so much fun with GPU's again.

lots of gpu sellers  and lots of pc sellers.

I went 50-50   btc and eth

I am now 50-50     btc and eth/etc

I see my eth/etc gear

usa resellers are:
amazon
newegg
provantage
superbizz
NcixUS
Microcenter
frys
good old ebay

parts from
Intel
AMD
Nvidia
Corsair
Seasonic
Samsung
Western Digital
Evga ----- some shit has 10 year warranty

I can put it on a cc
I can use paypal
I can put it on 6 months 0% 0 payment on paypal.
My discover card makes all 1 year warranties 2 years.
my discover card pays for damaged gear for 90 days (i.e. burnt up shit)
My discover card price matches.

every problem above that I mention is due to asic mining.

oh nodes
well if you are running a pc to mine how hard is it to add a node.

this means one thing  asic companies are at risk of death via gpu mining. 

 So we are going to see an economic  war unfold between asic vs gpu.

I am threading very carefully and attempting to balance both.

Frankly I sell my ETH/ETC off  pretty fast since I do fear a collapse of it.  But I turn profit every month doing this.



It is not that I do not like btc

if there were more asic chip makers this would likely be a moot point.

but there are only a few

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, Phil.  Bitcoin has kind of become AsicCoin, as the asic devs are running the show.  They control difficulty to an extent, and can wield vast amounts of hash power at a moment's notice.  I would wager with almost certainty that behind the scenes, all the big Chinese players are in it together.  Despite hashing against each other they have to realize that they are in the driver seat and can work together to "massage" the system to their benefit.  In order for bitcoin to become what it was meant to be I concur that we have to move away from asic dominance.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
10.08.2016 15:48   424578

1218   Blocks Diff Percentage : 7.43%    Next Diff: 216897575511

5.2 Days to go.

i think it will be between 6 - 10 %

Yeah and my losses may only be 250 out of 700.
The peak and the drop look like bitmaintech loaded all their hashnest with s-9 and are now selling off the old s-7 gear.
 If you have excess power capacity you could put the s-9 on line and keep the s-7 online for a bit.
I believe that bitmaintech could raise the hash rate far more then anyone thinks they can.
I think they have at least 300 ph off line.

But so much is hidden who really knows Ph for any group.

And the flooding may have put someone off line. 

I think that the hash rate drop was related to the flooding in China. Maybe now the things came back to normal and they started producing again.

Phil, I've just read that Bitfinex is about to reopen (trading and withdrawals) sometime in the next 2 days.

Paperwallets will always remain king, due to being free and can get them anytime you need it.  But Trezor is a great wallet I tried a few and it has the biggest following without a doubt.  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hands-on-trezor-hardware-wallet-notlist3d-1298917

I love that it actually signs the transactions on the hardware wallet.  Keep's it where even the computer cannot sign transaction's.  And the lcd screen to randomize digit's so even if screen is being captured it does not reveal pin is awesome.  Great investment for those long term and you still have  the seed words so even if it breaks you can recover so kinda goes back to paper wallet there.    But many good hardware wallets out there.

Biggest thing is just don't keep on hot wallets like exchanges as they are such a big target for "bad guy's".   Were at 589 right now on coinbase I'm actually pretty happy with that considering Bitfinex.   Bitwisdom went down just a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    213,860,627,514 (+5.93%)
Adjust time:    After 919 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,447,126,871 GH/s

If there was enough value to be had, then it would only be a matter of time before someone figured a way around no-asic mining.  Where there is a will there is a way, especially if there's a bunch of money to be made.

Big peak has backed way off and is trending back down again.

same here. long term bulk in paperwallets (too lazy to xfer to trezor). then trezor for a decent amount (a few months worth say). then core and phone for day to day.

trezor is very easy though. probably get a second.

  I bolded what I believe will happen to BTC due to asic control in the hands of a few companies.

If I was a big money guy  I would prefer a gpu coin over an asic coin.  Unless Amd, Nividia or Intel were selling the asic gear.

Plain and simple the fail is not on BTC as much as it is on asic companies.  

I see a lot of green blood split over this.  As in fiat cash.


oh look here


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/antminer-s7-psu-with-warranty-for-only-320miner-1580285

you think there is a link?

I am also against asics now, obviously, and I do mine (in hosting now due to noise) with asics.
Simple economic truth-90 days 'warranty' made some sense when machine was profitable in 2-3 mo.
It makes absolutely no sense when machine is profitable in a year or so.
I am not even talking about NOT honoring warranty and have some strange features in warranty.
In addition, i see asics as unsustainable long term.
I would very much like an idea of bitcoin switching to GPU-BTC with long warranties, less noise, supported by premier hardware companies, etc.
I think that many would welcome it eventually.
As far as it being contentious-so be it, the time has come, in my opinion.
Let's see if there will be willing developers to do just that.

As interesting and appealing as this sounds, changing Bitcoin's proof of work algorithm seems pretty unlikely. That change is far more contentious than the other contemplated changes, like block size expansion.

If the PoW were to change, ASIC companies and the miners that have invested in them would resist it. There would be two Bitcoins, like Eth/Etc today. The original SHA256 algorithm would be much more secure because they would have way more hash power. That would only change if an overwhelming number of people adopt the new algorithm.

If the new PoW algorithm caught on, then the ASIC manufacturers would move to support it. I don't believe it's possible to create an algorithm that cannot be implemented more efficiently in hardware. If there's enough financial incentive, ASICs designers will find a way.

Basically this would be a replay of SHA256 with the only effect of a reset for a few years. But in the end there would still be two Bitcoin chains, end-user confusion, merchant adoption would be hampered, and there would probably be less investment from VC's because the double chain mess would make Bitcoin investment even more risky. Bitcoin's first mover network effect advantage might even be lost to an alt.

I don't see this happening at all. There's too much at stake for the current Bitcoin movers and shakers to allow this.

Instead there will always be alts, like Eth/Etc, some of which will be profitable enough to draw miners away.

Yes, it's easy to pay from a Trezor. Basically you start the payment from their web app, or other supporting wallet software (like electrum), then you confirm it on the device. The Trezor itself does the signing so there's no exposure of your private keys.

One downside to the Trezor screen is small. It's getting a little tough to read as I get older. I've heard that the KeepKey (which is a Trezor clone) has a bigger screen. And Trezor is working on a 2.0 unit. Unclear what that will be.

I rarely send from the Trezor anyway. I use it as a kind of vault. Periodically I'll send spending money to my phone wallet from the Trezor. But I'm pretty much a hodler anyway.

I have no experience with the Ledger. Looks similar to the Trezor though.

it would set the asic builders backwards for a long time.

If you added a dag file over 4gb it would force you to have 8gb gpus. That would mean costly development for asic builders.
Better yet if you made it that 2x 8gb cards in crossfire would be the next change after 1x 8gb gpu card was the first change as soon as the the new asic came out switch to the 2 x 8gb  algo  so   the entire time spent building an asic  to mine the 'new' btc would  have been wasted.
  I am pretty much ready for an attack against asic building companies.  I have a lot invested in s-9's  but frankly  if they were rendered useless for btc  I switch them over to another 256 coin. I got back a decent amount already from my s-9's

BTC  has a lot of real problems at this time.  I don't like the asic lock on the coin. As I see it harming expansion of BTC.

I don't think it is possible to prevent ASICs from ever being used to mine. LTC was suppose to be mined by not ASICs however after a while, companies invested in R&D necessary to manufacture ASICs because there would be enough demand because the value of LTC was high enough.

I think the same would probably happen if the mining algo were to change for Bitcoin.

I have four s-9s. But frankly my pc gpu rigs mining eth and or etc are making more money .  They cost lest to build they use less power and they have long warranties

I like the way you think. 

I have become anti-asic.  This idea is pretty good.  BTC-GPU  


Here is my thought plain and simple.

Intel
AMD
Nvidia     as my suppliers of gear.   Vs  Bitmaintech and Avalon

1, 2, 3 year real warranties vs 90 day fuck you warranties.

Actual real world use of the gear for shit other then mining.

Lastly since the pc is mining how about a bonus if you run a node. Say 0.5% extra for running a node.

China needs a good dose of reality about BTC. The current setup is not good for the game.

If sufficient number of bitcoiners start running graphic cards in support of etc-eth (and they/we probably do this kind of thing already judging by some here), what may stop developers to release a "GPU only"-fork for bitcoin?
This is basically a sword of Damocles that they have over Chinese miner farms and pools.
People will switch their gear from etc-eth to btc if ASICs are ruled out, I think.
It probably would be the best, anyway.

I am not saying that the increase in difficulty has anything to do with any kind of flaw in Bitcoin, nor anything with the bitfinex hack.

I think it might be possible that the blockstream core devs are possibly running mining equipment at a loss in order to prevent them from being able to exert too much pressure for a HF to increase the maximum block size.

My understanding is that blockstream is almost certainly to never turn a profit if the maximum block size increases at all....part of this reason is due to once the maximum block size is increased once, it will be less of a big deal to increase it a second time when there is demand, and a third time (ect).

If mining equipment is being run at a loss at non-chinese pools, then the point of this would be to cause the voice and influence of the Chinese pools to decrease, so when they are calling for larger maximum block sizes, their voice will not be as loud.

Not sure but I don't think this jump makes economic sense.

I have been complaining about btc transaction limit .

We do an average of 300,000 a day with a max of just under 700,000 possible with perfect numbers.

So to have liquid btc we use exchanges.  And we just had Bitfinex 'lose' 60 million in btc .

Btc with a no fork rule won't lock those coins via fork.  So they stay lost.  Btc won't make more room via fork for more transactions so we need to use exchanges .  Exchanges get hacked  and btc does not protect against the theft.

Eth-eth had a hack or exploit boom crushed it via fork.

Btc is sucking its own cock feels good but leads to nothing.

I see a big move to etc-eth

I buy all real company gear with real warranties . Sold by real sellers like Amazon or newegg.

And if there is an exploit the developers make moves to save the day.

So if you have solid money to invest seven figures eth-etc looks viable.

Now if btc makes a block size adjustment that allows a lot more transactions per day then  maybe it does okay.

If not we are good to see a snap crackle pop happen

I wonder if the spike in estimated difficulty has anything to do with the recent meeting between the Blockstream core devs and the chinese mining pools. At first glance (and if memory serves me correctly), it looks like the Chinese pools are possibly loosing market share compared to what they had very recently.

I believe that there were reports that the blockstream core devs were threatening to quit if the Chinese pools were to start supporting a HF that involves increasing the maximum block size -- or something along those lines (I am unsure as to the reliability of these reports though).

I wonder if the blockstream core devs are possibly running some of their mining equipment (possibly at a loss) on non-chinese pools (and solo mining) in an effort to show the Chinese pools "who is boss". If this is true, then I wonder how long this can, or will last.

I have 4 hdds clones  with the same bt core  wallet  all off line set to boot any of my mac minis. just hook up one on any of the minis boot wait for synch and you are set.


  so keeping larger coin amounts  safe  is not a problem.  but I always float 1-3 coins on line between four or five spots.

can you easily pay from that Trezor thingie? The description is kind of open to interpretation and/or opaque.
I also looked at Ledger Nano S. Anybody uses that one?

Heck to be fair, I dont even play this for the btc, just for fun.  btc is just extra motivation   By the way, I found an old block erupter I had saved.  I put it on solo mining and in about 90000 years I'll tell you guys I found a block with it

I don't usually have more then .5 coin  say 300 usd on any exchange but   I was over limit and got burned.  Have to see what the burn is.  all is 700 ⅓ is about 233 .  I think they have me at 239 usd loss.  If I only lose 239  I can start prizes back next jump at 25 usd and by christmas my loss will be made up.

If I loss it all (700)  I will stop prizes for a few more jumps Say 6 in all that is 300 bucks    then go to 25 a jump for 16   and by late spring the loss will be made up.

I don't have any direct experience because I didn't use Bitfinex. But according to posts on Reddit it sounds like they're giving everyone a haircut in order to avoid bankruptcy.

I think I read that they're taking 36% of all user accounts, even those that were completely unaffected.

It's really quite a mess. Their customers are paying the price for poor security choices, but that's better than forcing them into bankruptcy and waiting 5 years to get even less back.

This is why I hold everything on a Trezor. I only use exchanges as briefly as possible to buy and sell coin.

My bitfinex account was reduced in ETC and in ETH
What does it mean?  So far I don't know  but if I ever get into it instead of looking at it I will pull the ETH.

Leave the ETC  and the BFX

I guessed this as a possibility last period when we went down that we would see upgrades.  I think Bitmain will keep running with being only one with production miner of current gen.   So likely making them... question is where they are going.  So internal or big sales likely I see as the anwser, pure speculation.   Difficulty was not what I wanted to see this week though.

I have not been able to get on the past week due to work.  The Bitfinex hack honestly did not drop coin value as much as I thought it would.  Will be interesting once they get settled and find best solution to pay all customers.   I'm am still a little afraid of a drop from Bitfinex user's getting  funds back and wanting out of crypto seeing loss from hack.... but hard to tell what will happen.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
08.08.2016 18:50   424303


943 Blocks  Diff % :9.15%    Diff: 220359402807

Below 10%

slowing down, yet still high.

Yup the big peak seems to have passed again, and the cycle continues.  Good news is the highest peak doesn't seem to be that far off the last few peaks pre-halving.  I'll guess we'll see the hash rate settle down to around even prior to another dip or peak starting up around the next adjustment.  Were the contest active, we'd be opening guesses soon... 1077 blocks to go this period as of this posting.

@philipma1957

  decreasing but not below 10%, for now.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
07.08.2016 18:23   424155

795 Blocks NEXT:10.84%    NEXT DIFF : 223783834702

It may have slipped back to 10%

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
07.08.2016 07:32   424092


732blocks   diff: 12.24%   Difficulty : 226599240387

still over 10%

My only saving grace is the power cost is managed so as diff gets worse my power to coin cost does not get worse.

Ie my deal is 1/2 the coins goes for power.

So my power cost is 50%

Sure doesn't look like the hash rate is capped any more. Maybe they're selling to private farms, or outfitting hashnest.

There's also the likely possibility that Avalon will soon enter the fray. Maybe they're testing.

Originally when Bitmain released the S9 at an insane price and with an effective monopoly I really wanted to see Avalon, BW, or anyone compete with them. But now that I've taken the S9 plunge (b3, which was the sweet spot), part of me selfishly hopes that a competitor doesn't rock the boat.

If a competitor comes on the scene, Bitmain is in a perfect position to annihilate them. If that happens then the ensuing price war will drive down the price of current mining hardware, drive up the difficulty, and kill any chance of ROI in Bitcoin terms of S9 early adopters like me.

The only thing keeping me from panicking in the face of the oncoming difficulty tsunami and selling my S9 right now, where there is zero competition and breathing room before the boom comes down, is my wife reminding me that I'm impossible to live with when I'm not mining

I'm a hobbyist miner I'm not nearly invested as some. So I'm ok with overriding the businessman in me that says that the time to sell my S9 is now.

For those of you that are heavily invested in the S9 at non-discounted prices, my heart goes out to you.

Don't know but I suspect some very interesting stuff happens behind the scenes

a lot of hash came on line see below




Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s

Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s <<<<<   but  maybe this is where we are  on the patterns of jumps

Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s

So Bitmain no longer is selling any more S9 to cap the hashrate ?

yeah  we could be getting the big squeeze...  push diff to 300  drop btc to 550

ugh

I was hoping for at least a month of 10% downturn, like the last halving. Looks like that isn't happening.

The current upswing is frightening.

I fear for my S9's ROI

there are a lot of s-7 and avalon 6 gear  800ph.  any way you cut it  even if it does not look like it is slowing the diff rate it is..

the network now seems to be close to 1650ph maybe 1700ph.

so if all older then s-7  turns back to 100 or 200 ph  vs 400 to 500 ph.

and some s-7/avalon 6 drops back to 600ph   vs 800 ph.

replacing  all the other hash means we are

100ph old 600 ph middle  950 ph new.

frankly  that cant be true.

Maybe too early for me to chime in on this, but it looks like 20-30% drop in hashing after halving never materialized even with some serious price downdraft.

All we got was a few low ups and one -5% with difficulty back to where it was in early July, and now with Avalon coming and S9 being obviously produced for internal use, it might never happen.

Well one drop is better then no drops.

Still  the s-7 is now a losing miner at 12 cents.  and with the jump it becomes a losing miner at 11 cents.

there is about 800ph in s-7 and avalon6 gear.  so it has to drop off soon.  even with upward s-9 and other gear .

Well, at least we had one drop. I do not foresee any significant downturn unless the price drops significantly and stays down for some time.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
06.08.2016 07:30   423931

571blocks next diff:   12.41%   226955995931

when will it stop?

So far, there isn't any obvious downward trend on BTC price, for the last 48 hours. If anything it's a tiny up tick.

yeah we will hear them soon , as always.

build a new equipment, name it like sXX , test it, use it, use it, use it, announce it , sell it to a big price, make a huge profit, then go to step one.

bitfury, avalon etc  could be.

The counter intuitive thing is that the more we talk about how bad it is, the rising diff and dropping price, the more hash that appears to be coming online.  Maybe it's not old gear, but rather new and not publicized gear.

I feel now would be good time as any to push the hash when price is about to drop even further.  Chatter from whale rooms are saying 400 maybe as low as 320 but idk  anything goes around this place thats for certain.   All the uncertainties surrounding btc atm doesn't leave me with a feeling of stability let alone a moon shot of any sorts. 

Hope the hash settles down and this is a bit of variance..but the straight up line on wisdom doesnt point to that at all. More of a switch thrown to me.

Thanks Phil for keeping this alive.  It doesnt have to have a reward to keep this rolling. let it ride a while to recoup your losses.  Most of us are not here for the reward anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz

if diff happens like 10% , most of the s7 units which has greater than 0.09$/kwh electricity cost , has to be gone offline, in a of couple weeks.

hashnest cloud market s7 has 82% maintenance fee, this will be greater than 90% with the next difficulty and results in close of the s7 market.

oh well looks like doom and gloom is on the way.  the diff goes to the moon.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
05.08.2016 15:14   423822

462blocks next diff=    12.59%   diff: 227309375730

well philipma1957, it seems they are powering up old gears

i think a considerable amount of s9 units are becoming online.

as has been mentioned, wonder if that older gear just goes to places with cheap electric.

is it possible some farms keep a "reserve" of hashing power not running so as not to influence the difficulty upward and compete against themselves so to speak. if they have a good profit margin they could do this to make the equipment last longer. phil you mentioned something along those lines a while back? if so this price drop is not a problem for them, they just fire up reserve hash to make the expenses for the month.

for remodeling.. heh as i learn from doing a new project i almost want to redo the thing i just did to make it even better..

you would think older gear is going to shut down but so far it has not.

02.08.2016 18:50   423360
05.08.2016 10:03   423777

417   blocks next diff : 9.94%   diff: 221958440137

well this is going crazy.

I'm not surprised the hash rate continues to climb as S9 type miners trickle out. If S9 type systems were available to the public tens of thousands would be sold. The last batch of 999 sold out in hours.  

Each S9 has the hash rate of at least 10 S5s.

Currently the S9 is profitable to power up even if you pay 20 cents per kWh.  If you have cheap electricity the profit margin is huge.  

It is quite possible the network hash rate will come close to doubling by the end of the year.   The limit is the availability of 14/16 nm miners.

I would expect the difficulty increase this period to be at least 5% and probably close to 10%.    

The problem is this adds up to 1500-1700 ph, which is current hashrate. No significant shutdown of mining equipment after the halving so far, maybe up to 200 ph already shutted down after the halving (mostly last week drop), but was replaced by new equipment pretty quickly (bitmain not selling to public does not mean they stopped the production by waiting for new chips, there are always private deals possible or bitmain mining farm), plus most of the unprofitable equipment has to be sold and new buyer must be profitable (free or 1-2 cent electricity cost). So I would not expect much bigger drop anymore, maybe few more similar slightly negative % periods this year.

400ph older then the s-7  


and 800ph  s-7 avalon 6


which is 1200ph


300 to 500 ph of s-9  less accurate.

It seems miners not much concerned about short-term Bitcoin price and continue hashing as usual. Bit weird as there must be a lot of S5 and older unprofitable hardware (I guess phil estimated about 500 ph) unless you pay nothing or like 1-2 cents from nearby power plant. Hard to believe last week hashrate drop included disconnecting all of the older and unprofitable equipment and the spike we see last few days is the new bitmain in house S9s (or privately sold to some big mining farm).

phil, that kitchen looks GREAT!

redid our kitchen a few years ago, not a complete rebuild like yours looks like.

we reheat pizza in it. we like it

and the spike is on.  we are at +4 %

Perspective is something everyone needs to pay more attention to, I'm glad you have your kitchen project to give you that other way to look.  I went through a recent bathroom remodel that was a nightmare, an endless cycle of mistakes and missed deadlines, and the house ended up getting sold and I never even used the remodel once.

The price seems to be making a push back, probably because a lot of people started buying once btc went under $500.  It's a shame this hack happened, but rest assured it will happen again still, all we can do is keep on keeping on.

And thanks for keeping this going for fun, maybe we can put the onus on each of us that when we post our guess, to post all the guesses before us so that it's no one person's job to maintain the list, just quote it from the last person who posted and add your guess in where it goes.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    197,266,676,357 (-2.29%)
Adjust time:    After 1871 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,621,480,855 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.2 minutes
   
Updated:    9:45 (1.5 minutes ago)

Well  spike is crazy high. 


Kitchen is really nice


I at least feel somewhat lucky I don't have more  I was as high as 1000 usd worth of ETC+ETH+BTC.

My guess is most is gone as I was a lender of ETH and ETC   so I am sure I will be told the borrowers all purchased BTC and the BTC is lost.

That is quite a nice spike we are having here. Back to moon ...

Are you taking any roommate ? That Kitchen is really nice. 

I heard they will refund everybody. I'm sure you'll get you're coins back soon.

I posted the kitchen  to remind myself  that the loss of coin in bitfinex  is 700 usd give or take a few bucks.

The kitchen which is 98% done was a lot more then 700 or 7,000 or 14,000.  So this helps me keep it all in  proper perspective.


Back to spec.
A very big spike    and we are just about back to 213 diff if it stays there.  note the 1 block per 9.4 minutes in blue highlight.

 we dropped to  485 usd and have come back up to 567

I'm sorry for the money loss. Although your alts may be safe, it'll be clearly a bad time to do business with BTC (selling) for a while.
Since the thieves are greedy, the effect on the price will be very big, but I also expect that it won't last too long (although it's hard to predict how long it'll be).


At least this ends well, congrats!

I am really freaking tired  but here are some nice shots of my kitchen.  before the handles and some trim is missing.









handles-- trim under sink -crown molding
very close to done.

I was afraid of a big number as they were so vague on site ... it just sounded like it was huge and they were trying not let numbers get out yet.   With advanced trading it had a big following.   I am hoping that post on reddit is wrong on amount but I'm thinking there is a good chance it is right.  Does anyone know total that was stored at Bitfinex?   With big numbers is BTC a total loss as far as customer holdings?

I'm hoping that everyone has already expected the worst and does not go even more crazy.  But this really sounds like Mt. Gox 2.0.   So we could see a massive decline in price which is scary as holder and miner.  I don't know how many times it will take for places with hot wallets to see the danger of storing massive amounts in them, exchanges are a big offender as so to many store on them.  

I hoping some will feel safe with Coinbase that has a insurance policy.  Maybe we can see more exchanges take out policy's (I hope) but it wont be a quick process.  But for now I'm glued to my computer screen watching for news, and prices.   Going to be a interesting difficulty period but not in a good way starting with this.
 

Sounds more than reasonable, philip. Will hope for the best but you tend to be right more than not... 

Ohhh that's why Bitcoin dropped off the face of the earth since I last checked it. I guess I'm a little late getting the news. Sorry to hear about your funds. Hopefully you get all (or at least some) of them back.

Well I have 3 hot wallets in three spots.

and a safe wallet I control.


I balance stuff around but I was busy and did not realize I had that much Eth + Etc   in that account at least i had    zero BTC.

It is still going to be gone if the figures are correct this is the largest fiat theft ever 60 million usd.

I am sure they are not going to give out  the ETH , ETC or LTC

as it is 63 million in btc stolen


http://www.pcworld.com/article/3103609/bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-apparently-loses-63-million-to-hackers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#tk.rss_all


so this is a fucking mess.  the thief will dump these coins into mixers left and right.  so btc is going to tank hard.

I see 450 or less .


So  we can bs this diff time period,  but I am holding back contest prizes for at least  a few diff periods.

I have Veves1  prize I need his btc address.

Fingers crossed for your funds, Phil.

May I ask why you stored them in an exchange rather than a wallet under your control?

Well the coins are in eth and etc  accounts  not btc 


51 eth  is 51 x 0.0154 btc   .7854

 55 etc   =  55 x 0.0061 btc .3355


total of  1.121 btc

Congrats to Veves1 for the pick.  Big raspberry to bitfinex for getting "hacked" yet again...  Sorry to hear this may affect you, philip, here's hoping it doesn't!

New thread new game smaller prizes see thread link here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1586699.new#new

I am suspending prizes last winner was paid today.  Veves1  got a $50 payment today.

I won't give a prize until  after Sept 21st.  At the first diff  Adjustment in the fall I will start up again.  Most likely prizes  will be cut to $25.00 per diff adjustment period .

That should recoup the loss  of 700 usd I suffered  from Bitfinex. In about a years time.

In the mean time I will have a vacation from the thread in terms of listing pick.

I will still run it  but just for info for now.








Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty                    Change   Hash Rate
Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450           2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480           0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039          2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234          4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455          4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328          2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409         0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846         2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303          3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931        -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154        -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245         2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018         0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513        -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688         5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645        -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951         1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317         5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962         7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895        -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056         8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017         3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307        -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271        -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328    1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252        10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265         2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s

© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com






I have to post a  possibile  end to the contest.

My funding for this is stored in www.bitfinex.com

they are hacked.  I may have mine intact as mine are all ETH and ETC not BTC


I will post an update:


https://www.bitfinex.com/credit



https://www.bitfinex.com/

Security breach on Bitfinex

Today we discovered a security breach that requires us to halt all trading on Bitfinex, as well as halt all digital token deposits to and withdrawals from Bitfinex.

We are investigating the breach to determine what happened, but we know that some of our users have had their bitcoins stolen. We are undertaking a review to determine which users have been affected by the breach. While we conduct this initial investigation and secure our environment, bitfinex.com will be taken down and the maintenance page will be left up.

The theft is being reported to — and we are co-operating with — law enforcement.

As we account for individualized customer losses, we may need to settle open margin positions, associated financing, and/or collateral affected by the breach. Any settlements will be at the current market prices as of 18:00 UTC. We are taking this necessary accounting step to normalize account balances with the objective of resuming operations. We will look at various options to address customer losses later in the investigation. While we are halting all operations at this time, we can confirm that the breach was limited to bitcoin wallets; the other digital tokens traded on Bitfinex are unaffected.

We will post updates as and when appropriate on our status page, bitfinex.statuspage.io. We are deeply concerned about this issue and we are committing every resource to try to resolve it. We ask for the community’s patience as we unravel the causes and consequences of this breach.

bitfinex.statuspage.io, [email protected]