see the chart here
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-ever.png
to visualize this crazy growth
Topic: Difficulty increases (Read 454 times)
the .16 decrease is asumption of growing difficulty by about 15% every 12 days, it worked this way last month or two, so could be good estimate.
Indeed, since my last post i did a little math and arrived at the same conclusion. I was quite surprised that difficulty is climbing so fast - i never looked at it in real terms...
But it makes me very happy - god bless the miners. The stronger they get in number and hash power, the safer the currency. If we ever end up with viable physical currency backed by BTC, it should say "In Miners we Trust" on the coins and bills.
In about 6 hours the difficulty will be about 9,000,000
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
This was posted in another thread, and it got me thinking about difficulty and how often it increases and by how much. Obviously this is an unknown, but from everyone's experience (and I know I am posting in a newbie board, but surely someone has some insight), do those numbers seem legit? Specifically the .16 decrease in BTC mined every 12 days?
the .16 decrease is asumption of growing difficulty by about 15% every 12 days, it worked this way last month or two, so could be good estimate.
i think that's why some guys make the litecoin, ASICs and FPGA will not be a problem cause this things doesn't have so fast memory.
Also, it seems like BFL is a huge lie, or they're waiting for a special moment to ship and make buyers happy
I'm a litecoin fan, cause i love hardware and it give the AMD fan guy a new oportunity
Also, it seems like BFL is a huge lie, or they're waiting for a special moment to ship and make buyers happy
I'm a litecoin fan, cause i love hardware and it give the AMD fan guy a new oportunity
In about 6 hours the difficulty will be about 9,000,000
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
This was posted in another thread, and it got me thinking about difficulty and how often it increases and by how much. Obviously this is an unknown, but from everyone's experience (and I know I am posting in a newbie board, but surely someone has some insight), do those numbers seem legit? Specifically the .16 decrease in BTC mined every 12 days?
Hey there,
Have you already checked out all the chart data at sites like blockchain.info? There's a wealth of data out there that shows the past trends which is quite informative. But since it's very hard to predict the degree of future miner investments and how fast new hardware will come on line, it's a bit of a guessing game (like that original poster suggests by saying "until BFL release"). The new ASIC hardware has got everyone pretty excited/worried as they are expected to make current mining hardware much less profitable once they achieve a degree of penetration.
It's all growing pains of a young network and an exciting time to be alive, and in the end, all I know is that BTC mining is no longer for the feint of heart and needs to be approached like a high risk business. I doubt one would see a 16% drop in mining output in 12 days, but it is still a very bad depreciation curve since difficulty has been growing FAST in step with the explosion of Mhash rates in the last months.
maybe not that much... but yes I think there will be huge increases in the month(s) ahead....
i think the same
So essentially, GPU minining will be a thing of the past, and it will be ASICs all the way. Doing the math, it would still take a large ASIC rig to have enough GH/s to justify it in the very near future at that rate. I just don't see how there could be an increase in difficulty at that rate for a sustained amount of time. Doing some research I think there will be a large jump then it will return to a more normal pattern after about 6-10 months of rapid increase.
maybe not that much... but yes I think there will be huge increases in the month(s) ahead....
i think the same
maybe not that much... but yes I think there will be huge increases in the month(s) ahead....
In about 6 hours the difficulty will be about 9,000,000
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
At that difficulty, 10GH/s will make about 0.55 BTC a day.
Use that in your calculations for the next 12 days
... then of course multiply 0.55 by approx 0.84 for the 12 days after that ... and continue doing that until BFL release their hardware
That's a reasonably good estimate ... with the totally unknown number in there "until BFL release"
(coz when that happens the difficulty will sky rocket)
This was posted in another thread, and it got me thinking about difficulty and how often it increases and by how much. Obviously this is an unknown, but from everyone's experience (and I know I am posting in a newbie board, but surely someone has some insight), do those numbers seem legit? Specifically the .16 decrease in BTC mined every 12 days?
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