With the rise of the ASIC machines, the difficulty level will obviously go up. I just don't think it's going to go up as much as the numbers I've been seeing ( !0x or more). Perhaps the logic is flawed, but here's my theory.
The difficulty level will go up as the ASIC's are released, this will/should stop GPU miners if for no other reason that power costs, and insignificant BTC payout. The GPU miners will slowly leave the playing field, which will "slowly" lower the difficulty, or most likely prohibit it from rising too quickly. There will be a shift from a lot of miners to a few, as most miners aren't going to buy an ASIC's to mine with. Most used the BTC to justify that gaming rig, IMHO.
So do you think the GPU's leaving will be enough to stop the difficulty from rising too drasticly?
and
Will the shift from a lot of people mining and making a little, to a few mining making more per person hurt the BTC economy? Or will they simply buy them?
From the known numbers in sales from the first day ASICs went up, there was at least 8TH ordered and more likely about 12TH just for the one day. This is enough to offset half the current miners. Plus, there was a post where BFL Josh confirmed they had enough pre-orders to multiply the difficulty by 10. Personally, I think that's small, and as long as the return is there, the difficulty will keep rising.
