[DISCUSSION] Fundamental Analysis For Shitcoin, Did they work?

ryzaadit

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Quote from: palle11 on July 21, 2020, 04:15:13 PM

Moreover, I believe FA doesn't really work for cryptocurrency but TA can really help more than FA in my opinion though.

If you read the whole thread not only a post comment on this thread.

You will find my statement, most analysis will doing some FA research before they doing TA research so both of this analysis was have a connection to each other. Could be taken an example on Bitcoin or other major cryptos, when we see the news of Bitcoin or some adoption like some country makes a regulation accepting bitcoin on their country. That's the news and one of the aspects included on FA, what are we need to do is make some TA analysis did the price will react after this good news comes out.

If you think FA doesn't really work, then why the price could be reacted after the news like some country ban bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, hacked exchange and other things? want to know your answer maybe.

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Quote from: nelson4lov on July 16, 2020, 07:25:28 AM

Technical analysis doesn't have much effect on altcoins much less on shitcoins. Their growth is mainly influenced by fundamentals like news, platform updates (mainnet, new versions, partnership etc). We're talking about coins which are highly volatile, A good FA news would make it hit 50-100% without much efforts. The same goes for when it dumps. For instance, Earlier this week, Binance announced that they would delist some tokens and immediately there was a flash dump on all 3 assets. That's how risky it is to trade shitcoins. In my experience, Its best not to go in deep while trading highly volatile assets as this.

Great thread @OP. I learned a thing or 2.

But I'm thinking shit coin or not, they are all altcoins and guided by same pattern of rise and fall.

Moreover, I believe FA doesn't really work for cryptocurrency but TA can really help more than FA in my opinion though.

BitcoinTurk

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First of all, I would like to start my message by informing that the content of the subject has been prepared very well and that I convey my thanks for this good information. If I need to state my own opinions about the subject, I can easily say that neither technical analysis nor basic analysis will work well for shitcoin projects. In fact, if we consider that the basic analysis will be informed about the project and that the project will not have a long-term life, we can see that the basic analysis may be useful in a little bit. On the other hand, since such projects are very short-lived and have started to be traded as new in the market, technical analysis will not provide much accurate results in such projects.

ryzaadit

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Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on July 17, 2020, 05:49:28 PM

Excellent thread, this will definitely help newer users that tend to get rekt by investing in shitcoins or obvious pump/dump scams.

I'm just sharing my experience trading using my own strategy.

Everyone freely to share the strategy of their trading activity, I'm not really advice people to use my strategy just for educational information. If everyone follows my strategy then they should read the disclaimer of the thread.

Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on July 17, 2020, 05:49:28 PM

Most shitcoins are a half-baked slew of ideas that have been stolen from other projects.

Yeah.

To many project who have the same idea, service and platform even the concept of the project not really to created blockchain for solved their problem. I will always skiped when have some project with the same idea.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: ashmodeus on July 17, 2020, 12:50:10 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 17, 2020, 06:26:12 AM

No one has successfully solved on-chain scalability, and increased transaction speed without centralizing any blockchain/cryptocurrency network. No one can bend the laws of physics.

a simple word,its seems imposible,i know i am not experts on this cases,but let me tell what i know.
to get sclability u need keep the block at the same size and of course,as the coin become popular and used by people around this world,the transaction going slowly as the huge transaction come every block.

and to get high TPS,u need to increasing block size or reduced block generation time,but how about scalability ? or course it will become permanent problem.

To increase utility, that's why the research on payment-channels become very important. The Core developers should be very careful on what design-decision-path they decide to take for the base layer, because they could "break" it.

rexxarofmoknathal

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Excellent thread, this will definitely help newer users that tend to get rekt by investing in shitcoins or obvious pump/dump scams.

I think that fundamental analysis only works when there is a very clear vision and the team clearly has the skill and expertise necessary to pull it off.

Most shitcoins are a half-baked slew of ideas that have been stolen from other projects. Unlike Bitcoin which tries to do one thing and do that one thing well, shitcoins often try to solve every problem at once—then fail to address any.

Would like to see a similar thread but this time about technical or sentiment analysis.

ryzaadit

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Quote from: ashmodeus on July 17, 2020, 12:50:10 PM

but like i say before,risk is higher for something like that.

That's why.

If you read the whole thread, then you will see a few strategy to take the high risk was not so high: trading time, limited amount you want to invest. Also, I already put some word on the thread when you trading shitcoin just a same throwing your money into trashscan and waiting a magic happen on there then you can take it back again. That's statement mean, always use free money to invest on shitcoin only lose 10-20/30$ for me is not a big problem at all the more fund I used the less trading time I will used.

ashmodeus

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Quote from: ryzaadit on July 16, 2020, 03:53:06 PM

I mostly like it trading with FA on the normal situation not when the trend is hot.

yes,i know exactly what u mean,its same like when i going to crex24 put the small balance there, and review a few shitcoin then put it to my bag.sometimes it really worth.but like i say before,risk is higher for something like that.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 17, 2020, 06:26:12 AM

No one has successfully solved on-chain scalability, and increased transaction speed without centralizing any blockchain/cryptocurrency network. No one can bend the laws of physics.

a simple word,its seems imposible,i know i am not experts on this cases,but let me tell what i know.
to get sclability u need keep the block at the same size and of course,as the coin become popular and used by people around this world,the transaction going slowly as the huge transaction come every block.
and to get high TPS,u need to increasing block size or reduced block generation time,but how about scalability ? or course it will become permanent problem.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: ryzaadit on July 16, 2020, 03:53:06 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 16, 2020, 06:22:27 AM

A developer that promises to have solved a decentralized cryptocurrency network's on-chain Scalability problem, and transaction speed, is being dishonest in my opinion.

Dishonest on what's?

No one has successfully solved on-chain scalability, and increased transaction speed without centralizing any blockchain/cryptocurrency network. No one can bend the laws of physics.

ryzaadit

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Quote from: Yogee on July 16, 2020, 10:28:05 PM

If I read his comment correctly, he is saying that those who claimed to have solved the scalability and tx speed issues have either done it through network centralization or off-chain methods (it could be both). Therefore, being dishonest.

Oh, I see.

Even the project not saying that's word, sometimes I marked by my self the project want to solved that's problem. One of the project I marked from my self for this problem is XRB (NANO) they have zero confirmation using DAG. But there another problem because of this, the block was to heavy only can do 1 transaction for each block and the receiver could be have some problem when they have spam transaction since is zero confirmation.

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Quote from: ryzaadit on July 16, 2020, 03:53:06 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 16, 2020, 06:22:27 AM

A developer that promises to have solved a decentralized cryptocurrency network's on-chain Scalability problem, and transaction speed, is being dishonest in my opinion.

Dishonest on what's?

Keywords from Wind_FURY's comment are "decentralized" and "on-chain". If I read his comment correctly, he is saying that those who claimed to have solved the scalability and tx speed issues have either done it through network centralization or off-chain methods (it could be both). Therefore, being dishonest.

LUCKMCFLY

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From the point of view of a book called "A Random Walk on Wall Street" by Malkiel Burton, they focus on the stock market, but what they talk about fundamental analysis applies to the Crypto market, they say that Fundamental Analysis can fail with a great possibility Because it is very difficult to make a return on investment without taking into account fundamentals like those of today, such as Covid-19, and if it is applied to shitcoins, which depend on Bitcoin, it is like entering a casino to gambling.

Everything changes when applied to Bitcoin, for having a life of its own, however the probability of failure is latent because the speculative market in Crypto is very volatile and sometimes unpredictable, emotions play a big role and Strong Hands or Whales manage their plans quickly due to the world situation.

ryzaadit

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Quote from: nelson4lov on July 16, 2020, 07:25:28 AM

In my experience, Its best not to go in deep while trading highly volatile assets as this.

That's why I give the trading time to not holding shitcoin to long.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 16, 2020, 06:22:27 AM

A developer that promises to have solved a decentralized cryptocurrency network's on-chain Scalability problem, and transaction speed, is being dishonest in my opinion.

Dishonest on what's?

Quote from: ashmodeus on July 16, 2020, 12:07:37 PM

-snip-

Well at least they have a high speed TPS instance offering a HYIP ~LOL

Its for your own perspective but in my opinion in new project or shitcoin, FA will be always the worked analysis than other analysis. If whales want to cashout, most of them waiting for the trend when the volume was high. They will not dumped when the order book was really low and volume was also low, their bag will not hold the volume or orderbook that's why they will try to find a trend first or creating the trend.

Well, about KNC I really avoiding a token/coins with a hot trend. Most of coin/token when the trend is booming and everyone trade on that's coin the potential dump and other things was really high.

I mostly like it trading with FA on the normal situation not when the trend is hot.

ashmodeus

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for me,mostly shitcoin come with same idea but different parts. for example about TPS, well, we've see a lot of project wich it can claim a variant TPS,of course mostly just HYIP,since as the time goes, a new project came with same idea to solve that problem,so how long the old project will survive ? 1 year ? 2 years ? ,i dunno.
so,TBH,FA for shitcoin its not really work,even if we see their have a good fundamental,when the whales say no,of course they will death,so what work on shitcoin ? trend is the best for me, of course we will have a different risk if we talking about these options.

1.For FA,u research some shitcoin and dare to put it in your bag,as the time goes the project steady growing, of course u will rewarded for high risk you take.
2.For trend, u just follow the trend no matter what coins it,for example,if u follow the trend about KNC last month u should get a good reward for it,especialy if u long it on laverage.

about profit,of course FA will be the number one about it,but risk also.

nelson4lov

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Technical analysis doesn't have much effect on altcoins much less on shitcoins. Their growth is mainly influenced by fundamentals like news, platform updates (mainnet, new versions, partnership etc). We're talking about coins which are highly volatile, A good FA news would make it hit 50-100% without much efforts. The same goes for when it dumps. For instance, Earlier this week, Binance announced that they would delist some tokens and immediately there was a flash dump on all 3 assets. That's how risky it is to trade shitcoins. In my experience, Its best not to go in deep while trading highly volatile assets as this.

Great thread @OP. I learned a thing or 2.

Wind_FURY

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Quote

Solved a problem from Scalability.
Transaction speed.

Basic fundamental analysis lesson. A developer that promises to have solved a decentralized cryptocurrency network's on-chain Scalability problem, and transaction speed, is being dishonest in my opinion.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: ryzaadit on July 15, 2020, 09:14:08 AM

But, since cryptocurrency doesn't really have of this information then we take it from the news, progress about the project because this effect on the price on that's coins

Doesn't have this because they are not generating any profit. Only few coins/tokens economy is not based on dumping pre-mine or paying for stuff using
constantly newly generated coins out of thin air. How to do proper FA than? You can do basic resrearch to check if project is not dead but it is not Fundamential analysis that is good enough to open trade based on that. In fact such research is done by good exchanges before listing. Binance constantly delist coins/tokens that does not develop in a way it was promised.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on December 09, 2019, 05:59:14 AM

Cryptocurrencies market is the hardest to estimate. There is no fundamental analysis here - such indicators P / E (price earnings ratio) P/BV (price to book value), because everything is at the start-up stage, the functioning of which we will only see in the distant future if the team won't scam us, if no one will develop similar project faster, if no one will invent better product that will make our coin useless, if ... if ... The market is blindly trying to include project prospects, risk, market condition and various of other indicators in the price. Most often market is so confused that it blindly accepts any existing price, because if ... if ... if ... if will happened than this token will take over the world and will be worth even 100x more. But there are more than 10,000 such tokens and only 1 will rule the world. So a moment later, there is a dump and another group of investors becomes bagholders.

Even if you did basic research, project is not dead, it's innovative, solve crypto problems how to estimate how much is this idea worth? 10 000$? 10 000 000$? Let's say it's in top 200 CMC - 16 000 000 $ makercap - is it a good entry point? When it's fundamental and real world value will build demand big enough to pump price (not hype, demand caused by project utility)? in 5-10 years? Good fundamential analysis should answer all of those questions.
Crypto market in 99% cases is equal to hype hunting.

ryzaadit

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on July 15, 2020, 07:43:43 AM

1- It is too hard to do fundamental analysis for shitcoins (at least good analysis that can be indicator of a potentially good investment). For average non-tech person it is impossible to judge which POS is better (stellar, neo or maybe one of 1000 other coins?) which POW coin is better (GRID? BIS? or any other out of 1000+). Which Smart-Contract has better code. 99% of them will dump to 0 sooner or later no matter if there was ICO or not, if there is fixed supply or not.

I'm doing an basic reseach.

As long they offering to solved cryptocurrency problem and have a good brief project, then will try to looking into the project. I know most of project offering a shit project like solved a problem on real live even not really necessary used blockchain to solved the problem.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on July 15, 2020, 07:43:43 AM

2- Most new coins/tokens are a cluster of promises. All of them promise to do revolutionary things that will change world. But out of 1000 coins/tokens only 1 will achieve something. I hardly daubt that it is possible to spot it.

Well, If we don't see to a new coins then how we can being an early adopter to get a good opportunity.

Just like what u said, always keep in minds finding a good project like finding needle in the straw you need some balls and confident about your analysis. Always use free money when investment to a new project.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on July 15, 2020, 07:43:43 AM

3- Fundamental analysis work in long term (1-5 years minimum). For short term trading it is important to check if project is not dead - that's all. Supply, roadmap, team does not matter for 1d - 1month investment.

Well, someone said the fundamental analysis from the report of finance each company on real live.

But, since cryptocurrency doesn't really have of this information then we take it from the news, progress about the project because this effect on the price on that's coins

Tytanowy Janusz

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From my experience:

1- It is too hard to do fundamental analysis for shitcoins (at least good analysis that can be indicator of a potentially good investment). For average non-tech person it is impossible to judge which POS is better (stellar, neo or maybe one of 1000 other coins?) which POW coin is better (GRID? BIS? or any other out of 1000+). Which Smart-Contract has better code. 99% of them will dump to 0 sooner or later no matter if there was ICO or not, if there is fixed supply or not.

2- Most new coins/tokens are a cluster of promises. All of them promise to do revolutionary things that will change world. But out of 1000 coins/tokens only 1 will achieve something. I hardly daubt that it is possible to spot it.

3- Fundamental analysis work in long term (1-5 years minimum). For short term trading it is important to check if project is not dead - that's all. Supply, roadmap, team does not matter for 1d - 1month investment.

Additional:
Real fundamental analysis is based on indicators such as P/E not promises and twitter fallowers. For now the only coin/token that is good enough to do P/E calculation with is BNB and surprising it is 4-5 times better than S@P500 average.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53299809

ryzaadit

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Quote from: milandres0207 on June 16, 2020, 11:38:05 PM

Your illustrations are not that easy to guess. That's maybe because the market was too unpredictable, right?

Need to learn and try this a few times and also have a good speculation to make a conclusion from the data.

Quote from: milandres0207 on June 16, 2020, 11:38:05 PM

But your fundamental analysis was quite good and I think it is also easy to understand too, on my part only.
Because anyhow I still do have a little bit of understanding in trading as well too.

Yes, everyone could be easy to understand this fundamental analysis instance of technical analysis when sometimes make you confuse for the action trader. But the problem can they handle the high volatility from a shitcoin market when doing a trade? because when trading a shitcoin you just like throwing money into a trashcan.

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Your illustrations are not that easy to guess. That's maybe because the market was too unpredictable, right?
But your fundamental analysis was quite good and I think it is also easy to understand too, on my part only.
Because anyhow I still do have a little bit of understanding in trading as well too.

ryzaadit

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I decide to bring this thread to the global board to sharing my trading activity with some method has been created by me, this thread is a translated which was created on my local board: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/diskusi-fundamental-analisis-untuk-shitcoin-did-they-work-5231845

Intro
Before we get into the main topic, let's read for a moment the definition of Fundamental Analysis :

Quote from: AakZaki on February 01, 2020, 02:47:44 PM

Source : AakZaki

For those who are often in technical analysis, it must be familiar with the name of Support & Resistance above, for an explanation of this, please visit the technical analysis thread because there are already a lot of explanations at there. This technique is one technical analysis that is fairly basic and familiar with it. I sure 80-90% of people can find support & resistance when doing technical analysis.

In my fundamental analysis, there are also Support & Resistance that I apply but are different from "Support & Resistance" which uses the highest/lowest price of the price of the token or coins but i used it from the "Wall Order Book" of the coins or tokens.

But doing this have few problems that are considered quite disturbing by using this method, namely "BOT ORDER". There are several types of bot orders that you must know, so that you can distinguish between "Bot Order" and "Real Order". The types of bots that I know right now are:

Pump / Dump Moving Bot Order: Bot which always moves automatically at the top / bottom order (Buy / Sell), this bot will react every time a trader does order above / below the bot order.
Wall Moving Bot Order: Bot which will react when the price of coins / tokens touch a certain price that has been set by the bot, for this bot it is more "Buy Order" than "Sell Order".

To make the order book a "Support & Resistance" the order book must have a wall order of 30-50% or even more than the volume of coins/tokens so that the order book can give a rebound effect when the price touches the price of the order wall book.

The disadvantage of this method, the "Wall Order Book" will always move or even traders who place orders on the wall revoke their orders so that we cannot always make these prices as a reference for "Support & Resistance". In this case, you are required to monitor the orders that are in the coins/tokens every day. If there is no "Wall Order Book" or too far away, usually I will try to sell the coins/tokens at the same price or take a cutlose.

Take advantage of Gap Orders when New coins/token entering New Exchange
The last thing that can be used as an alternative is to take advantage of gap orders when the coins/tokens get a listing on the new exchange. Usually when there is a coin / token listing on a new exchange, there will be a large order gap because the order book hasn't been created at all so we can take advantage of this condition to try to get coins/tokens at a low price or selling with the high price. But this method is not always successful, here we only use traders who do not know the real price information of the coins so that the trader sells the price of coins instantly at a low price. Maybe it can be categorized as "Luck", the time period that I use is around 7 days if there really isn't a trader filled my orde usually I will immediately withdraw the order and leave.

For example, if an order is placed successfully filled, you can do a Sell Order by selling at the actual price of coins/tokens or trying to order at the farthest spread when listing on the exchange. The picture above is one of the experiments I have ever done, when the MESG token gets a listing on IDEX which at that time the real price was around 30K Gwei, my order was filled by someone at 21K Gwei.

If you calculate the percentage difference from the original price with the price I get is about 30% from the original price and I succeed in selling around 700 MESG Tokens at 75K Gwei with a profit percentage of 200% +. The rest I sell on Digifinex with the original price, since trading history data "Digifinex" only displays data from the last 3 months i cant put at here, then I decide to include the price data from coinmarketcap on the day of thats order books has created.

Disclaimer :
This thread is not a trading suggestion that guarantees you will always be successful in trading, but just a sharing of trading experience that has been done @OP in using fundamental analysis. @OP is not responsible if there is a loss by following the fundamental techniques described, you are responsible for what you have done yourself DYOR & DWYOR.

Log Thread :
I change a bit sentence or word from my local thread, so the thread could be more understand that my original thread

Add Self-Moderated to prevent spam, please avoided pyramid quote and full quote of the thread. Just use -snip- went you want to full quote the whole thread, thanks.

Topic: [DISCUSSION] Fundamental Analysis For Shitcoin, Did they work? (Read 816 times)