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Topic: [Discussion] Trading Indicators & Strategies (Read 194 times)

AdoboCandies
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[Discussion] Trading Indicators & Strategies
July 15, 2018, 05:22:58 AM
#1
    First, you need to choose what kind of indicators you need to develop your own Strategy
    What type of indicator a trader uses to develop a strategy depends on what type of strategy he or she intends on the building. This relates to trading style and risk tolerance. A trader who seeks long-term moves with large profits might focus on a trend-following strategy, and, therefore, utilize a trend-following indicator such as a moving average. A trader interested in small moves with frequent small gains might be more interested in a strategy based on volatility. Again, different types of indicators may be used for confirmation.

WHAT IS TRADING INDICATORS?
  • An indicator simply manipulates price data using a mathematical formula. The indicator shows a visual representation of the mathematical formula and price inputs. To a skilled chart reader or trader an indicator often won't reveal more than what is visible just by analyzing the price chart (or volume) without any indicators.
  • That said since there is so much to be analyzed on a price chart an indicator helps simplify it. This is why indicators are so alluring to new traders. Instead of learning to how to identify a trend on the price chart, they try to find an indicator that will identify the trend and trend reversals for them.
  • Indicator based trading is relying on indicators to analyze the price and provide trade signals. Many indicators provide a specific trade signal which alerts the trade that now is the time to take a trade.



TYPES OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS

TREND
  • Moving Averages
  • MACD
  • Parabolic SAR

MOMENTUM
  • CCI
  • Stochastics
  • Relative Strength Index

VOLATILITY
  • Bollinger Bands
  • Average True Range
  • Standard Deviation

VOLUME
  • Chaikin Oscillator
  • OBV
  • Rate of Change(ROCV)


TREND INDICATORS


MOVING AVERAGES
  • A moving average (MA) is a widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out price action by filtering out the “noise” from random price fluctuations. It is a trend-following or lagging, indicator because it is based on past prices.
  • Moving averages lag current price action because they are based on past prices; the longer the time period for the moving average, the greater the lag. Thus, a 200-day MA will have a much greater degree of lag than a 20-day MA because it contains prices for the past 200 days. The length of the moving average to use depends on the trading objectives, with shorter moving averages used for short-term trading and longer-term moving averages more suited for long-term investors. The 50-day and 200-day MAs are widely followed by investors and traders, with breaks above and below this moving average considered to be important trading signals.
  • Moving averages also impart important trading signals on their own, or when two averages cross over. A rising moving average indicates that the security is in an uptrend, while a declining moving average indicates that it is in a downtrend. Similarly, upward momentum is confirmed with a bullish crossover, which occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average. Downward momentum is confirmed with a bearish crossover, which occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average.


MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE (MACD)
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
METHODS
  • Crossovers
-As shown in the chart above, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid getting "faked out" or entering into a position too early, as shown by the first arrow.
  • Divergence
-When the security price diverges from the MACD, it signals the end of the current trend. For example, a stock price that is rising and a MACD indicator that is falling could mean that the rally is about to end. Conversely, if a stock price is falling and the MACD is rising, it could mean that a bullish reversal could occur in the near-term. Traders often use divergence in conjunction with other technical indicators to find opportunities.
  • Dramatic Rise
-When the MACD rises dramatically - that is, the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average - it is a signal that the security is overbought and will soon return to normal levels. Traders will often combine this analysis with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or other technical indicators to verify overbought or oversold conditions.

PARABOLIC SAR
  • The parabolic SAR, or parabolic stop and reverse, is a popular indicator that is mainly used by traders to determine the future short-term momentum of a given asset. The indicator was developed by the famous technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. and can easily be applied to a trading strategy, enabling a trader to determine where stop orders should be placed. (The calculation of this indicator is rather complex and goes beyond the scope of how it is practically used in trading.)
  • The parabolic SAR indicator is graphically shown on the chart of an asset as a series of dots placed either above or below the price (depending on the asset's momentum). A small dot is placed below the price when the trend of the asset is upward, while a dot is placed above the price when the trend is downward. As you can see from the chart below, transaction signals are generated when the position of the dots reverses direction and is placed on the opposite side of the price.
  • As you can see from the right side of the chart, using this indicator by itself can often lead to entering/exiting a position prematurely. So, many traders will choose to place their trailing stop-loss orders at the SAR value, because a move beyond this will signal a reversal, causing the trader to anticipate a move in the opposite direction. In a sustained trend, the parabolic SAR is usually far enough removed from price to prevent a trader from being stopped out of a position on temporary retracements that occur during a long-term trend, enabling the trader to ride the trend for a long time and capture substantial profits.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS


STOCHASTICS
  • The stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator comparing the closing price of a security to the range of its prices over a certain period of time. The sensitivity of the oscillator to market movements is reducible by adjusting that time period or by taking a moving average of the result.
  • FORMULA
Stochastics is measured with the %K line and the %D line, and it is the %D line that we follow closely, for it will indicate any major signals in the chart. Mathematically, the %K line looks like this:
%K = 100[(C – L5close)/(H5 – L5)]
C = the most recent closing price
L5 = the low of the five previous trading sessions
H5 = the highest price traded during the same 5 day period.
The formula for the more important %D line looks like this:
%D = 100 X (H3/L3)
We show you these formulas for interest's sake only. Today's charting software does all the calculations, making the whole technical analysis process so much easier and thus more exciting for the average investor. For the purpose of realizing when a stock has moved into an overbought or oversold position, stochastics is the favoured technical indicator as it is easy to perceive and has a high degree of accuracy.

  • The K line is the fastest and the D line is the slower of the two lines. The investor needs to watch as the D line and the price of the issue begin to change and move into either the overbought (over the 80 line) or the oversold (under the 20 line) positions. The investor needs to consider selling the stock when the indicator moves above the 80 level. Conversely, the investor needs to consider buying an issue that is below the 20 line and is starting to move up with increased volume.

COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX (CCI)
  • The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based technical trading tool used most often to help determine when an investment vehicle is reaching a condition of being overbought or oversold. As the price of an investment moves continually in one direction, these indicators help traders to determine when an institutional conviction may be changing, and a pause or pull-back in the market price may be coming. This information can permit traders to take profit or add to an existing position following a price pullback.
  • First developed by Donald Lambert, the CCI is a stochastic oscillator that measures the change in an instrument's price relative to a pre-defined moving average (MA) of the price divided by 1.5% of a normal deviation (D) from that average. Oscillating indicators, in general, are technical trading tools whose calculated values move back and forth between two pre-determined levels, the top level indicating a market that is in the condition of being overbought and the bottom one indicating a market that is in the condition of being oversold.



RELATIVE STRENTGH INDEX (RSI)
  • The Relative Strength Index - RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. It is primarily used to attempt to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the trading of an asset.
  • The RSI provides a relative evaluation of the strength of a security's recent price performance, thus making it a momentum indicator. RSI values range from 0 to 100. The default time frame for comparing up periods to down periods is 14, as in 14 trading days.
  • Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI is that RSI values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued, and therefore may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. On the other side of RSI values, an RSI reading of 30 or below is commonly interpreted as indicating an oversold or undervalued condition that may signal a trend change or corrective price reversal to the upside.

FORMULA
RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)



VOLATILITY INDICATORS


BOLLINGER BANDS
  • A Bollinger Band®, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger, is plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average.
  • Standard deviation is a mathematical formula that measures volatility, showing how the stock price can vary from its true value. By measuring price volatility, Bollinger Bands® adjust themselves to market conditions. This is what makes them so handy for traders: they can find almost all of the price data needed between the two bands. Read on to find out how this indicator works, and how you can apply it to your trading. (For more on volatility, see Tips For Investors In Volatile Markets.)
  • Bollinger Bands consists of a centre line and two price channels (bands) above and below it. The centre line is an exponential moving average; the price channels are the standard deviations of the stock being studied. The bands will expand and contract as the price action of an issue becomes volatile (expansion) or becomes bound into a tight trading pattern (contraction).

  • In this example of Bollinger Bands®, the price of the stock is bracketed by an upper and lower band along with a 21-day simple moving average. Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility when the markets become more volatile, the bands widen; during less volatile periods, the bands' contract.

AVERAGE TRUE RANGE (ATR)
  • The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. Specifically, ATR is a measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems." The true range indicator is the greatest of the following: current high less the current low, the absolute value of the current high less the previous close and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The average true range is a moving average, generally 14 days, of the true ranges.
  • Wilder originally developed the average true range (ATR) for commodities, but the indicator can also be used for stocks and indices. Simply put, a stock experiencing a high level of volatility has a higher ATR, and a low volatility stock has a lower ATR. The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades, and it is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data.


STANDARD DEVIATION
  • The standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a data set relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. It is calculated as the square root of variance by determining the variation between each data point relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
  • In the financial services industry, the standard deviation is one of the key fundamental risk measures that analysts, portfolio managers, wealth-management advisors and financial planners use. Investment firms report the standard deviation of their mutual funds and other products. A large dispersion shows how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns. Because it is easy to understand, this statistic is regularly reported to the end clients and investors.
  • The formula for standard deviation uses three variables. The first variable is to be the value of each point within the data set, traditionally listed as x, with a sub-number denoting each additional variable (x, x1, x2, x3, etc.). The mean, or average, of the data points, is applied to the value of the variable M, and the number of data points involved is assigned to the variable n.



VOLUME INDICATORS


CHAIKIN OSCILLATOR
  • Named after its creator, Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin oscillator is an oscillator that measures the accumulation/distribution line of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). The Chaikin Oscillator is calculated by subtracting a 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the accumulation/distribution line from a three-day EMA of the accumulation/distribution line and highlights the momentum implied by the accumulation/distribution line.
  • Fundamental analysts study business performance to glean information about the future direction of stock prices. Fundamental analysts believe that the ability to predict the market is about being the most informed. Technical analysts believe that all known information is already priced into the market and that patterns in the movement of stock prices can help to predict the future. Technical analysts use the Chaikin oscillator to find directional trends in momentum.
  • It is the balance of this relationship that drives markets. Analysts measure this relationship, the balance of buyers (accumulators), and sellers (distributors) with myriad indicators, including accumulation/distribution indicators such as the Chaikin Oscillator.


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