Topic: [Discussion] X-Raying Paid Tipsters Services (Read 494 times)

if you have access to the popular books that aren't bitcoin then you can follow tons of the good services in blogabet ( especially if you can get bet365 accounts )

here is a great guy to follow , he specializes in German and Austrian football but most of the value comes from the obscure amateur leagues and most of the times you won't find these games with the bitcoin sites
he does tip some bundesliga , champions league and europa league but value is nowhere close to the amateur ones
https://francobegbie.blogabet.com/

I would really like to have alook at your experience with them even if they are not in bitcointalk

Live-betting/-trading offers just so much more value. I am doing my betting 95% inplay nowadays, because rarely you will find the same value pre-match that you will find inplay (even for the same game). On rare occasions you might miss out on some good pre-match odds, because of some early action - like goal in the first 5 minutes of a football match - but in 90% of the cases, you will find better odds inplay for your pre-match picks. No matter what were your leans. So you will miss out a few good bets, but this more than evens out with the additional value and/or higher odds you are able to find live.

That being said, this approach is way more time consuming of course, because you are glued to your computer and TV while looking for opportunities. You can't just go out and enjoy the good weather like you can/could do with a pre-match bet. And it's of course difficult to transfer to a paid tipping service. An inplay tipping service might work ok-ish with slow games like football, but already Tennis is a hard task. Not sure how fast the odds move e-Sports, but I guess pretty fast, so probably not doable as well. 

I know there are some inplay tipping services via Telegram, Whatsapp or whatever, but you are working with small margins, so it's really important to always or on average get the same odds as the tipster. This is not easy inplay in fast sports.

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Not paid, but in an austrian betting forum, they have the so called "Spezies", where users post their picks for free and keep track of them. Most of them are doing poor and give up after a short period of time, but there are also some cracks. One user specialized in icelandic and baltic football and is doing very good with it. You would have to register an account in the forum to be able to see the threads, but everything else is for free. It's in german, but easy to understand what are his picks.

Baltic football
Icelandic football

Don't get confused with the units. In the past you would start with 1000 units and crawl your way up (or not ). They then changed the system and everyone starts their "Spezi" with zero and goes on from there. With baltic football he is +747.28 units and with icelandic football +759.01 units in a 1-10 staking system.

sorry for some reason I missed the mention , yeah didn't go well at all
to be honest I feel it's due to betting heavy favorites a lot and I never seen any good tipster who constantly pick shitty odds except one guy who was betting ITF which is so shady and easy to beat , I'm mainly joining esports services just to see how the tipsters think about the games cause I'm still newbie in esports and some services even when they are doing bad can help you somehow understand the game

at the same time I started enjoying betting csgo a lot but I'm always going for high odds bets , kinda finding so far that if you go against the public you will find a lot of value and more than any other regular sport
what I have been doing recently is watching and betting live , there are several games where you see an equal performance between two teams but the books still heavily underestimating the weaker team

so for esports I guess from now on I will only follow tipsters who have at least 1.9 avg odds with over 1000 sample size

BTW since bundesliga is resuming and mostly likely others will follow , please guys start sharing your findings here 

Thanks for the feedback, just today I was thinking about asking you for some updates regarding his service and how it's going. Quite surprised to see the paid picks going so bad, because the free tips in his thread were going well from what I observed. I even followed some of his free picks, when I was able to see them in time and odds were still good - went break-even with them, which is ok. 

I still like the work he is putting in and he seems very knowledgeable. Him planning to return the payments is very noble and a nice gesture. As I mentioned earlier, the bookmakers surely put some more effort into e-Sports during these times and players/teams playing from home changed the game a bit too.

Then I guess you have a lot of e-Sport newbies, that are good bettors in another realm, but switched to e-Sports lately. From what I experienced, when you "learn" a new sport, in the beginning you are doing pretty good betting-wise, maybe even better than someone who bets that sport for ages. I thought a lot about this and I guess it's because you have no bias and no information and memory overflow in your head already. You just see the facts and don't have to consider a thousand things from the past, that make you having doubts about certain bets and their value - you have better focus and a clearer picture. I don't know the english word for it, but online translator says "routine-blinded" for it, maybe that makes sense. So maybe for him not only the competition from the bookmakers got more fierce, but also from his fellow punters. Or just variance mixed up with some additional pressure when going paid with your tips

Oh, you joined Rand's VIP group too? So, you already read his message regarding the future of his paid group? Apparently, the past days have been rough in his Esports pick. These are the numbers that he provided to us:

• ROI = -20.95%
• Profit = -31 units

He's planning to stop his group for now and return all the payments that he got from us for this month. I think, he's still waiting for the vote of the majority (whether to continue or pause for a little bit) and he stated that he would like to focus on his free picks. Gotta be honest, the Esports games have been very cranky.  

didn't find anyone really worth following, the screenhot that I posted in my last post here was for an esport-tipster and he was doing the best in blogabet in April but obviously he is so bad and clearly doesn't even know how to manage his roll

I joined Rand for premium but service is still new and can't judge before 3 months or so ,  according to my past experiences with esports I don't really have high hopes tho

there are plenty of good tipsters in blogabet but there isn't a single good one with esports , based on that I think it's pretty much impossible to find a good one since blogabet is the most popular platform for tipsters

They are definitely in the spotlight right now, because this is the only sport still running like it used to run some weeks ago - while being a sport that people bet on regularly even with everything else taking place too. Nobody bets basketball or football from Tajikistan in normal times^^

I am not sure though, if E-sports tipsters are on the rise in regards to profit. I would expect the bookmakers/odds compilers to put more effort and manpower into E-Sports now, because this is one of their main businesses at the moment and probably will be for quite some time. And you might have some people that even stay around with E-Sports betting in the future - because they like it or made some money with it - so the bookmakers better up their game a bit, i.e. fine-tune their algorithms

Thanks for the thread guys, and yeah SyGambler's probably one of the most well-informed people on this forum, good to have his input. I've never paid attention to tipsters, paid or otherwise, though there was a period earlier on in this forum I thought to check out some of the tipsters, who have either gone inactive now or even changed/deleted channels -- which tells me something eventually went bad!

E-sports tipsters on the rise you think?

So, rand1919's VIP group just started yesterday and we went 2/3 picks. Pretty good for a start and we already got our pick for today's games. I'll provide some data (win-loss percentage) after a week or so to avoid any spam-like post on this thread.

Hehe, I think there was always the same volume in terms of matches played, it just wasn't bet-able, because the bookmakers didn't bother to put up odds for table tennis matches in Armenia before Corona - not worth the effort with only few people betting it, when football etc is on. Now during this crisis, they are going crazy with table tennis and I guess they are able to have good turnover with it. Have a look at todays schedule:

https://www.flashscore.com/table-tennis/

623 matches listed and you can bet on all of them, 24 hours a day. There are probably some cracks, who feel like in paradise now, because they can finally bet on table tennis matches they always wanted to bet on. Then a few, who maybe found some new niche. But the majority is just bored and happy to have anything to bet on. They are hoping for a good run - maybe even having multiple blogs and one of them is successful - and then start a paid service.

this is exactly what's making me doubting the table tennis tipsters in blogabet . I don't really remember seeing any good table tennis service in the past before the sports pause
but now there are a lot of tipsters covering table tennis , some of them have really good sample ( over 900 picks with like 2.1 avg odds and over 9% ROI ) but still wondering if they were really that good then why they decided to show up now

any idea if table tennis games volume before the pause was the same as it's today ? cause if there were fewer games in the past that may explain a little why they are showing up now , but if volume was the same in the past then it's fishy

for Esports it seems that it's impossible to find a true good tipster , maybe because the majority of the followers are young and lacking the betting experience
take a look at this guy stats for me , I subscribed 9 days ago and at that time the average stake was 3
in 2nd day he had a bad day and after that he started rage betting and chasing , his over staking is really insane now with tons of volume

I really think this could help people that are not really good at analyzing and gathering information about some games would surely be helpful for them and some notable people that slightly have knowledge but are lazy in some research, Tipsters will always be there but this is great because now we can analyze tipsters themselves if they are very successful with any tips they are sharing,

this is a win-win situation for both tipsters and gamblers alike the problem is newly tipsters that are just only starting for themselves will need to climb up their popularity with this kind of services but I think for now this will surely wait because of the Pandemic all sports betting related gambling is in a halt.

Yes, some smallish leagues are still running. But for me it's like this: A good tipster service is specialized in some sports/league and only provides bets from this area. If the sports/league is on break (summer/winter break or Corona like now), this service should be on break too. If these services switch to leagues like Tajikistan/Belarus now, where I assume they have no expertise, this is a red flag for me. If this service specialized in Tajikistan/Belarus football before, fine, but switching to these leagues for a lack of other sports running, is not what I would trust with my money.

There are some tipster that are generalists, i.e. they cover the "whole world of football" and might be able to easily learn and adapt to a new league. But I am skeptical about these services in general, because I would always prefer a specialist, that covers 1-3 leagues or one country. If a specialists suddenly switches to other leagues during this crisis, this is most likely not profitable. And generalists are more likely to not be profitable longterm. It's always better to do a few things 100%, than a lot of things 70%. Imo.

Tipping services popping up now, that cover table tennis, virtual sports and these small football leagues, are suspect anyway

no there are some games still going on in some places , I had picks on Tajikstan and Belarus football leagues
also it seems there is still some ice hockey games going on as well , might worth using the filters in blogabet for these type of games

For football, this is just the pro players going against each other on the Playstation imo. There is running some tennis exhibition (https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/), but I only recognize one player there (Koepfer). It's probably some club level tennis, but with Corona you can bet on very strange things now

The Madrid Open have started a virtual tennis tournament too, where the pro players play each other on the Playstation and you can bet the outcome. To fight boredom, this is nice and I wouldn't deny the fact, that some value could be found, but for a longterm successful tipping service, this is not what I would be looking for^^

yeah it's been like a week so far , still not certain about any of them
they tip mainly esports and table tennis , there are some darts bets as well from time to time and some tennis picks ( seems there is still some tennis and football games going on )

the main problem is that bitcoin books don't fully cover these types of games , Bet365 seems to be perfect for them though

Yep, this is a good sign, but something every paid tipster should do. Why would you sell something that is supposed to be profitable and not participate in it yourself There are certain circumstances, where you are maybe not able to play those picks yourself, but I see no issues in doing so with E-Sports, which is available in so many books.
I also like his write-ups and the effort he puts into them. I admit to not understand a lot, but what can be found between the lines, is very solid.

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This service has now deleted their blog on blogabet (https://sportxtipster.blogabet.com/) without notice. Maybe they will come back at a later point with a new blog and also get active in their thread here in this forum, after football has resumed.

Oh, yeah, thanks for pointing that out. Actually, I've been betting all of his picks in Sportsbet.io (sometimes Nitrogen) and noticed that I do get a lot of better odds from those 2 bookies compared to BetOnBit. I'll drop by on his thread and suggest it to him. The thing that I'm thinking right now is that he stayed on BetOnBit because of the referrals that he built there and there's this leaderboard where he's currently on top and will be able to win $500 at the end of this month.

What I like about this guy is that he really bet on his picks (100 euros at the very least) and he's literally putting his own money where his mouth is. Will provide more information about his paid service once it started. 

Cool, thanks for dropping by. I am not into E-Sports at all and thus never paid attention to the thread, but this looks like a really solid tipster with cheap prices and good tracking. He seems to operate with ~3.4% yield which is good. Having a look at BetonBit, where he plays, they have quite poor odds, only 92% payout, so he could probably even do better, by expanding his bookmaker portfolio. Did you ever check, if you could get better odds for his bets somewhere else on a regular basis ?

I just checked randomly checked out Sportsbet for this bet....


....and they already have 2.00 for this bet. So if you follow his bets and shop for even better odds, you could probably increase the yield to something like 5%+.

Really glad that you started this kind of thread. The number of paid tipster are really exploding even though most of the markets that we usually bet on are on hiatus. Currently, I don't have any subscription to any paid tipster in this thread but I'm planning to have one before this month ends. The one that I'll subscribe to specializes on Esports and already have a thread for his free picks. Here's his announcement regarding his paid service.

ESPORTS - predictions and tips (Dota 2, CS:GO, LoL) - by rand1919

Did you just recently start to follow them ? Because most tipsters should really be on hold for the moment, if they are not specialized in E-Sports, table tennis etc. As mentioned above, lots of people try to bet their way through this crisis with what is still running, but this is a big red flag for me.

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This guy seems to have given up already, although he had a good start, but fluke of course. A scam accusation thread was opened, but I don't see this as a scam, just shady, dishonest, misleading or whatever, because the user is just asking for a share of winnings, while providing countless losing bets. The account has been tagged, so probably kind of abandoned already.

This could be the next thread of this user: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mixed-sports-betting-5243569

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Not a paid tipster, but someone started a challenge with improper tracking imo: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/500-30000-gambling-challenge-5243760

IDK really feel they should be tagged , I mean they are offering paid service without even doing the basics in the business
one of the tipsters here in the past actually said that it takes time to track and I was like wow it literally takes less than 1 minute to track a pick
being lazy isn't an excuse at all and when this happens it means the tipster just want to hide the results

currently I'm trying two guys on blogabet will let you know if they are worth following , so far the experience not that good since a lot of the picks can't be followed with the books I'm using right now

This thread can be a general one for anything related to paid tipsters here in this forum, but also for external ones. Tipsters not present in this forum, can certainly not get tagged, but maybe potential customers for that service, can be made aware of services not being honest through this thread. If a user is not tracking his picks, even after request, and keeps on advertising in this forum, I am not sure if a tag is justified. It would just be an assumption, that the user is probably being dishonest, while everything still might be ok and the user is just lazy or not bothering. Every legit service (even if unsuccesful) will do a proper tracking even without request though, so that is that. Difficult.

This table tennis guy had a bit of a strange business model by just wanting to participate in the profits his "customers" made. He announced to pay/refund his sole customer, lets see. Don't think he is a scammer (just a kid looking for attention), but he was verifiably dishonest and thus you tagging him is warranted. 

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This thread was opened recently: Sports Betting of the year | Table Tennis | My daily tip to earn huge

Looks very much like him again with a new nick: Confirmed Sports Picks~ Daily profit (20 free trials before paid version)

Lets see, how this unfolds.

great thread thanks for making it , tried to post my results in the past with the tipsters I follow but the majority of them weren't on bitcointalk and it was really time consuming so decided to stop
really hoping that everyone here will start questioning these tipsters so we can all be sure that there is a good tracked amount of picks with no manipulation

was hoping for a discussion regarding tagging paid tipsters who don't track properly as well

Inspired by this post from @SyGambler and with his "permission", I am opening this thread to discuss and analyze paid tipsters in here. A lot of them are regularly showing up in the gambling section and promoting their services.

Whether you sould sign up for paid tipping services or not, is up to you. Good and longterm profitable services are very rare. The majority is using a recent good run to earn some extra money, but they are not really successful gamblers. Don't get fooled by buzz words and false promises, take your time to monitor the tipster, their style of betting and draw your conclusions. Check the verifiable history (if any) and don't get FOMOed by instantly jumping in, just because of recent good results. A good service will make you money longterm, so take your time to evaluate. The (weekly/monthly/yearly) price is also something to consider, especially if you are no high-roller, it might eat a good amount of your winnings.

This thread is not only restricted to services promoted in this forum. If you stumble across some interesting one, just post it and we can all have a look, what it is about. Don't use this thread to extensively promote your own tipping service - make your own thread for that - but feel free to engage in discussions about your or other users services. Self-moderated for obvious reasons.

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My Top3 of what a paid tipster has to offer, apart from being profitable of course:

• Honesty and transparency
• Reasonable prices
• Liquid markets/leagues or max amount of subscribers

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I'll start with a service that was promoted here in recent weeks/months and which I followed and still follow, without having subscribed: Sport X Tipster's Betting Predictions | +65% WR | +$300K Overall PROFIT !!!

Thread title is already a bit lurid, but well. I basically only followed what they were doing from the point they showed up here. Football was still running and they were doing ok-ish. Very responsive and friendly in their thread and with ok-ish write-ups/reasonings. They had some questionable bets, or rather the staking was off imo, for CL matches, which put them in the red. When leagues were suspended they lost themselves in these little leagues still running and faded badly. They are now desperately trying to go green again on their blogabet by overstaking heavily:


Source: https://sportxtipster.blogabet.com/

While I would have given them a pass with trying their luck in these small leagues during Corona, this overstaking is a big no-no for me. This is very unprofessional and not what any semi-ambitious punter is looking for. Shows me, they are not in it for the long run and thus not interesting for me. They are no scammers whatsoever, but I don't think this service will be profitable in the future, unless they change their approach and work on their staking.