I would like to provide a reminder that we mine not only to make short term gains, but also to prevent that the network gets a 51% attack and our bitcoin price goes to zero.
We see mining getting increasingly concentrated on few players. If you see https://christopherwolfram.com/projects/bitcoin-centralization/ site, until 2012, 1000 different miners produced consecutive 1000 blocks. Nowadays, we have 16 miners producing 1000 consecutive blocks. This is very alarming.
I was wondering how much mining power every BTC owner should have so that everyone can do their share of protecting the network.
Of course I cannot have the same THs as someone rich, but if everyone can have an amount proportional to their bitcoin market cap, this are a little more realistic.
Here are my calculations:
According to https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate, the current hashrate is 800 M, and the hash rate in TH/s increases more or less linearly with BTC price in USD.
How much TH/s should everyone provide in order to secure a part of the network proportional to its stake?
With 21 M BTCs avaiable, if you own 0.1 BTC (10 000 USD as for now), your share of the total bitcoins is 0.1 / 21 M = 4.76e-9. The current hashrate is 800M TH/s, so you should have 4.76e-9 * 800M TH/s = 3.8 TH/s
As far as I know, the most energy efficient small home miner is Bitaxe Gamma (corrent me if am wrong) and costs 245 USD. Each has around 1.2 TH/s, so you would need 3 of them, or 745 USD, to protect your own share of BTCs (assuming everyone does the same).
745 USD is 7% of your BTC value (10 000 USD, or 0.1 BTC in this case). If USD price double, probably the total TH/s will also double, so you would need double the THs power to keep up. This means, 7% of your BTC USD value should be in a small but cost efficient miner. no matter at which price BTC is.
7%!
I really dont think most of people have 7% of their BTC value invested in a small miner, showing that actually most of people don't do enough to protect their investment.
This is like having a 10 000 USD bike, with no locker to protect it against thieves. Some people have even 100 000 USD bikes, or 1 000 000 USD bikes with no lockers!
I suggest we should disencourage people from seeing mining just as a profit tool, but as a tool to prevent BTC from crashing.
To the owner of online BTC profit calculators: please make clear that mining is not only for short term profit, but that is also to protect the network. The opportunity cost of not mining yourself is allowing the network to be attacked and everything going to zero.
And please add the fact that BTC will appreaciate if it keeps safe (it appeciates in average 77% per year since 2012), so please also include this discount rate at your calculations, for those to insist on short term profits.
Remember that gold storage got centralized because it was cheaper on the short run, and that fractional reserve banks got famous because it let you get some interest rate for doing it. This all lead to the centralized and corrupted fiat system we have now. Dont let the same happen to bitcoin! Try to have 7% of your BTC investment in the most energy efficient small miner you can have
PS: I searched for the most efficient miner in terms of energy consumption, but I could have come below the 7% value if I had a website which takes my energy cost, and automatically goes thru a list of miners and their prices and power efficiency, and gives me back the miner with the highest ROI for my needed THs. If someone knows such a calculator, please tell me