Yes, but if loaded they retain better than Bitcoin itself due to the added collectors value. Hype changes alot
I imagine the premiums (percentage above face BTC value) on "common" unredeemed and loaded Casascius coins will continue to go up as Bitcoin prices move higher, but I quickly looked at closed auctions on 1BTC coins that ended on Nov 9, 2022 when BTC was $18,000 and the auctions for a 1BTC Casascius were $31,000 to $38,000!
Then I looked at closed auctions on August 23, 2024 when BTC was at $60,000 and the 1BTC coins closed at $70,500.
With just this limited data, it seems like the premiums are going down percentage wise, which kinda makes sense?
When 1 BTC was valued at $1000, someone is more likely to pay 200% face value, but not 200% when 1 BTC is $200k. Maybe when 1 BTC is $200k in the future, a 1BTC Casascius might just have a slight premium of like 5% to 10%
Buying Bitcoin itself so far has been a better investment than buying any physical Bitcoin I believe… although these items are tools and pieces of art. They will increase in terms of fait forever and likely continue to outperform every other category of numismatic coins in terms of sheer outlyer values
I think you are right, buying Bitcoin itself will outperform buying any Bitcoin collectable, except maybe for the cream of the crop Casascius coins with denominations of 25BTC or higher that are outliers. Thanks for your comments!