Topic: Do you think China will invade Taiwan? When and what will be the fallout? (Read 69 times)

3 years ago I was 70% certain that China would use the opportunity created out of the chaos to invade Taiwan, I said as much in my comments back then. But things changed after what Russia experienced in Ukraine.

You see Russians have been successful in annexing certain strategically important parts of Ukraine east of the river that includes many of the industries, factories, agricultural lands, etc. They've also succeeded in turning Ukraine mostly into "burnt ground" that NATO doesn't want any longer. And they've also increase their own dominance in the Black Sea.
But all of that came with a lot of cost for the Russians as well, to their military, economy and some infrastructure.

That means Chinese strategy is most probably going to be annexation of Taiwan through other means. They've learned from both US and Russia. They do want to annex strategically important parts of Taiwan and increase their dominance in the China Sea, but they don't want to pay the same price by fighting a proxy war with NATO like Russians did.

Take what they've been doing over the past couple of days in the technology field. Today China is producing very advanced microchips and in the near future Taiwan will no longer be the producer of any of them as China would swallow the global market, pushing them out!
They could also impose more blockades (similar to US sanctions against various countries in the world) and destroy Taiwanese economy to the point where they beg China to annex them!

That's what I think the current strategy is and I would give a low percentage (like 10% chance) to the likelihood of an actual armed conflict where China invades Taiwan.
I think a more likely scenario which I think is more favorable is a similar situation with Hong Kong. If US gave control of Taiwan back to China and it turned into another "special administrative region of China" without any conflicts just like the way British gave up their control over Hong Kong and gave it back to China back in 1997.

P.S. I should mention that the world is changing very rapidly and this speculation may not be true anymore in 2 months as Trump's global Tariff War comes into effect.

there seems to be effort to mitigate this already by building factories in other countries as well as building fab in the US,
as for cryptocurrency, I'd expect crypto to be the least impacted from this to be honest, china has been trying to ban bitcoin for so long yet bitcoin is still going strong as ever, hopefully though the war will never happen and anyone can find peace, war is just waste of time and resources.

first of all china is already bullying other countries within the region taiwan is not the only one they have their eyes on they are definitely the counterpart of usa when it comes to being involved with other countries' political and military issues

and so if they are to properly attack one country they will be at their backfoot since taiwan has actually a few advantages that might weaken china if they are to attack too carelessly i do not think economically china can afford to start a full blown war with anyone most especially with taiwan a war will just worsen their economy so the risk might not yet be worth it right now

Will he restore world peace or create a more serious crisis? He withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran in his first term and imposed a series of sanctions on Iran. He backed Israel in creating a crisis in the Middle East and in the early days of his second term, he began pressuring America's closest allies in decades by forcing them to sell Greenland...It's all for the good of the United States, not for the world.

He would end the Russia-Ukraine war because it costs the United States too much money and the benefits are not worth the money they spend, not for world peace. The US may give up Hong Kong but they will keep Taiwan at all costs because Taiwan holds the world's leading semiconductor technology. The US does not want this technology to fall into the hands of China and all they care about is semiconductor technology, nothing more, nothing less.

I like that you ended with "even if it's just for a few days" meaning you also have it in mind that not even Trump can put a stop to Xi Jinping's desire to claim Taiwan as part of China right?
Personally, the least these world leaders can do to avert such a thing from happening is to broker deals and we know that in the issue of this Taiwan - China proposed war, Biden made it clear to China that they would intervene should matters get out of hand but at the same time won't be willing to actively involve themselves. So they were more or less shadow helpers. Who is to say Donald Trump won't so the same or maybe completely wash his hands off the matter and focus his attention on something else? We can't be too trusting of these politicians you know.

Any chance of invasion would likely not happen with Donald Trump assuming office as the president of the United States. His influence is huge, and he can be a big factor in restoring world peace, even if it is just for a few days.

The situation between these two countries is like a bomb waiting to happen; the threat has been there for many years and Taiwan shows readiness in case of the attack, but I doubt if China will be careless to start a war, it will hurt their economy, and there will be sanctions all over the world because China has been perceived by the world as the Asian bully, and they need to stop that bullying before they spread to other areas.
Asian is in the spotlight because of the Taiwan issue and the West Philippine Sea issue, in which China is trying to put a dominance stance. The world is ready to take action against China if it is ready to take Taiwan and the western Philippine Sea.

The conflict between the two countries will never end, China still believes that Taiwan has been influenced by the US so that China actions are increasingly aggressive during the visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan. Basically China will insist on claiming Taiwan as its territorial territory like their predecessor Mao Zedong. Now Taiwan position has an advantage in the electronics industry which makes it increasingly impossible for China to back down. In terms of economy, Taiwan existence is very important to remain independent there, they regulate crypto policies well. The impact if China succeeds in taking over Taiwan, then you know for yourself the communist system operates to control every individual ownership into joint ownership.

This is my opinion. Russia is getting very weak, their men are getting killed, Putin basically commits a genocide for Slavic Nation. So, men are major workforce that do manual labor and many other important duties. If Russia is left without man, it means that there is economically terrible situation for them and I think it's clear for everyone, Russia simply fights this war and doesn't surrender because Putin has said it many times that this war is strategically important, Russia can't afford to lose this war or it will be an end to their small influence.

The relationship of China and Taiwan is a very interesting topic. I don't understand what they do and why they do because the USA doesn't train NATO troops for nothing and I think China realizes that too. This is very interesting topic where I lack some knowledge and hope we will see a good informed user to post here. I find it strange that China pays US debt, made itself very dependent on the US/EU customers and at the same time tries to do things against their interests while not being a superpower country.

It looks like Xi Jinping has his eyes set on "One China" and this desire to conquer Taiwan, even though it has been a successful and independent country for decades now. As I understand it, Taiwan is one of the most efficient and effective manufacturers of computer chips, which may be the reason that they have been able to avoid this invasion so far. However we see constant escalation in the news about how China is harassing the skies and waters around Taiwan, trying to create provocations all the time.

Unfortunately it feels rather inevitable, since it might be Jinping's idea to cement his legacy in China - even though a lot of lives will be wasted and the world will become slightly more authoritarian when a free part of it is taken. We see that the Chinese economy is struggling a bit at the moment (it is simply growing a bit slower due to it's huge size, after a long period of very impressive performance) and economic disaster can often be a trigger point for politicians to create distractions elsewhere. Russia is stumbling around in Ukraine right now, taking some land at huge cost to their army and goes to show that even these so-called super powers can end up under performing on the battlefield against a creative and free thinking enemy.

I feel like it could trigger the next major economic crisis if it kicks off and there could be all kinds of unintended consequences, but the major one would be sanctions against China that'll cause prices to soar and major supply chain disruption to all technology companies as the microchip companies are knocked out. Can you think of any other consequences or have any idea when you think the move will take place? Also, do you think there will be any knock on effect to cryptocurrency as this happens?