Topic: Does card counting really work in Blackjack? (Read 716 times)

Slow dealers = horrible for counting. You want a high count of hands/hour if you want to make anything decent.

Assuming 3:2 payout, doubling on any and being unable to hit aces after splitting, that's 0.66895% edge. Best case scenario (hitting aces post-split) that drops down to 0.48409%. If you have surrender, then that's even better.

Evolution Gaming holds a 0.6072% edge, but it's 8 decks rather than 6.

The results after counting would probably be equivalent between the two, though if you're able to secure an entire table on Betonline.ag you might be able to make it more profitable. A team scenario.

Well, I just got done having a 3 day gambling episode at Betonline.ag. They had a live game that was 6 decks and the rules were OK. Hit on soft 17, can only split once, and double down on any two cards even after the split. However, the deck penetration was only less about 50%. I tried to count the cards. It was kind of easy because they play really slow. Most of the poor dealers looked bored and tired. Unfortunately, I lost about .06 BTC. I am wondering if there are any games online that are good for card counting. One that has a deck penetration larger the 50%. I somehow think that what was offered at Betonline.ag was about the best that there is to offer. Guess it is back to my day job.  

What are you talking about? The most you have to memorize is the count and the number of aces, if you're doing any side count. The rest you can discern between rounds. You're not remembering every individual card, though you certainly could (and given enough skill, mathematically deduce exact probabilities), rather you're using various systems to come close to best betting/playing strategy. Some counting systems are marginally lower than the accuracy of calculating card-by-card, so you're not missing out on much. Maybe a small difference of 0.001 ev.

I have always wondered why casinos are sometimes against card counting, now I understand better but the card counting is even not so easy and not every gambler can do it. I don’t want to believe every player has the memory for counting and moreover to be good at counting, we must have the ability to be focused not to miss count of the cards that have been arranged optically, this is the only way a a gambler counting, one can get an opportunity to guess next thing that would be unveiled in the game.

The necessity of calculations in blackjack can never be overestimated. The casinos are aware of this and this is the reason its highly prohibited, it definitely works.

Most, if not all, online blackjack games play like the deck is shuffled after every hand. Also, the live games online casinos offers use continuous shufflers. So no, card counting is not going to help much with online games. However, if you can find the right game in brick and mortar casino's, it appears that it can work. However, it appears that it did not work for me because I didn't have a big enough bankroll.
However, one thing that can help a person online is to learn the basic strategy. You would be surprised how many people do not know how to play the basic strategy, perfectly. I remember getting yelled out for making a play, such as split 9s against a dealer low card. One person, long ago, accused me of being greedy and how dare that I ruin a "good hand."   I remember another guy yelled at me for hitting a soft 18 vs a dealer 10. the player, himself, was playing the no bust strategy. (Literally he would not hit a hard 12 or above no matter what the dealer had.)

I think the card count on blackjack is not important because when we play online there is a system that makes the house and players have different levels of luck, after all many people use or play online gambling like this simultaneously and it is a sign that the calculation in the blackjack game not important. So, I personally just feel this game only relies on luck, if the cards can be known its movements then immediately play well, but when we feel something is not good at the time of the game, then I will just leave it.

The story of a professor and his maths class of students going out on a field trip to attempt probability theory for profit in a local casino is not made up as far as I know.   I will try and dig this out via google later but I did check previously and found it was a real case many decades ago now.

The subject of probability and data analysis for advantage goes back hundreds of years and relates to multiple subjects even as serious as engineering, they will determine odds of failure vs stress patterns of various natures.   Nothing in the world is indestructible but they have to make it highly improbable and be aware when risk of failure rises and why.   As I like to say in many threads, gambling is not a game its a feature of life we cannot get away from and everything is a risk with known and unknowns.

   Listen to this guy, he is quoting ancient Greece scholars afaik:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk

Some casinos are prohibiting card counting so this only means it really works.  With the skill of card counting a player knows what will be the next sets of cards to be distributed and knows their chance of winning.  This way they can either add more chip on their bet or just stay with their initial bet.

For most people you should tell them card counting does not work because the vast majority will be too incompetent to conduct the system correctly.   Screwing up the slight advantage ruins the whole concept really.  
   Its not a gift or really cheating, its a return on controlled calculations of known variables.   When you reduce the unknowns in a gamble you will always increase the chances, thats why many poker players are really quick reads on types of people and their likely plays.
   If you can read people reasonably well in unbiased observant manner then its maybe worth trying poker.   I'd say this as a skill is more probable then what card counting is made out to be, plus the casino doesnt mind if you do well vs others afaik.

     I quit drinking over a decade ago and don't intend to touch the stuff again. So I won't be able to use that as cover going forward. I suppose that I could order mocktales; but I doubt that is going to fool anybody. Also, in order to play multiple hands, I would have to visit the gambling town near me at less busy hours. I still have a 9 to 5 job, so the times that I could go are the same as most other people.

I have played games with shuffle machines. It seems that it makes the game go faster, since the dealer does not need to take time to shuffle. Just but the recently played deck in the machine and remove the other decks, that are already shuffled.  I haven't played a game with continuous shuffling, though. However, I am certain it is pretty fast and automated.


Unfortunately, the casino town near to where I live is limited stakes. So the maximum bet at any table is $100.00.


My strategy was either Hi-Opt 1 with an ace side count or Hi-Lo. I really never tried the other strategies. However, even when I tried the Hi-Opt 2, I found myself losing my count because old habits die hard and I would count the 5 as -1 instead of -2.   In fact, I am so entrenched with the Hi-Opt 1 count, that I forget to count the 2's when trying Hi-Lo instead.

The only way to game a slot machine is to wait until a jackpot pushes the ev into the positives. Unless the slot machine is rigged, the base house edge remains the same and play has no effect upon the results.

When it comes to slots, the edge will usually be at least 2%. Most of the time, even progressive jackpot slots need values of multiple millions for it to be profitable.

I don't think there is one though. I know slot machines are the worst way to go to a casino if you want to win some. There's a probability that you will win the game and not some few cashbacks into you but its really at random. Slot machines really don't have a threshold where if it reach it suddenly becomes more profitable at the end, so in theory even if that "barman" is waiting for his turn on that slot machine it doesn't really increase his chances of winning the jackpot. Still card games like Blackjack or Baccarat where you can decide on where your money will really go.

Let's stop with the ignorant replies and break it down.

---

The casino's way of preventing card counters from returning is to ban them from the establishment. Though card counting is not itself illegal (it's just math, like basic strategy) trespassing is. And they will enforce that against you if you are caught. Now, there are ways to reduce the chances of being caught.

Your drinking of alcohol is actually beneficial for masking the counting, though if you're inexperienced it will highlight the thinking between cards if you take too long. Drinkers are less likely to be caught due to how inebriation causes cognitive decline. For heavyweights, though... you're in luck.

The other important thing is to bet consistently. When you arrive at a high true count because of one or two hands, you should never suddenly raise your wager. This attracts very unwanted suspicion and calls attention to how you play. Now, if you're a volatile gambler throughout the deck even when the count is low (or negative) then there will generally be less heat. One effective way of increasing your bet subtly is to spread to multiple seats if you are able. Individual hand bet increases will make your total increase with less visual impact than if you were to stack it on one hand. Moreover, spreading to multiple seats means that within a given hand, your chances improve. You're able to bet a significant amount more when you have multiple seats (I believe it's up to 25% with four simultaneous hands)

Contrary to popular belief, hampering card counting with continuous shuffles is worse for the casino in the long term than just letting the card counters take a small %. Continuous shuffles in-between a deck for regular players slows play down significantly and is costly to the casino. You have less total wagered across the aggregate of all blackjack players, not just the card counters.

Extensive practice solves this. PM me later some time

Bankroll is a very important topic when it comes to marginal advantages. Unless you're playing single deck, it's going to be very difficult to make money with a small bankroll. If you're only betting in the single digits, you're going to make minimum wage, at best.

This depends on how you wager depending on the count, and what system you use. I believe you used a Hi-Lo strategy, which is simple to understand. However, more advanced strategies are not that difficult to learn given some effort.

Cheers.

The main ones have good enough memory and be able to count quite well.  If you do not lose sight of all those cards that have already been visually fixed, then you have a much better chance of predicting the further development of events in this game.  Therefore, the calculation is very important if the gambler knows how to use it efficiently.

Card counting is not illegal. There is no law that prohibits someone from using their brain in order to keep track of cards that have been dealt. The can prohibit someone from using an electronic device. The casino is a private business, though, and they can decide that they do not want a particular player's action. If they feel so inclined, they may even make certain players persona non grata. If you step foot in their casino again, or refuse to leave, they can have you arrested for trespassing. Also, when a casino backs off a card counter, they do allow them to cash in their chips. Otherwise, that would be theft on their part. Of course, the casino can make you whip out your ID, in order to be "compliant" with AML laws...

Seen that movie too which would definitely the case to happen  its too unrealistic and wont really be capable to exist in real life.

About on counting card,it does work but eventually this would be neglected on midway for sure due on distraction.

Card counting is not legal in gambling. You can be kicked out and denied your reward for counting the cards. Many people have won as well as been kicked out for wining by counting the cards.
Card counting itself is not an easy task, you'd need a high level of attention and a super memory.
There's nothing as card counting in online gambling as the shuffle are totally random.

I think the benefit aside, this card counting is very difficult and definitely not meant for everyone. Slow thinkers and those who find it difficult to focus can never do this and we can’t blame them. Me for instance, I would say that I should be counted out of this immediately because I am poor with numbers, bad at memorizing and I hate whatever that brings me tension, so definitely, I do not belong to the category of card  counters.

I had a friend who was a PRO with this and of a truth, I would say that it was nice and he basically was in control of his game, but I knew he was super intelligent. He was my classmate in college and the entire class knew him as a genius, I don’t really know what went wrong that made him not to continue with the education line but he went focused on gambling and was really doing excellently well.

     There are two ways that a casino can tell that you are card counting. One way is with your betting pattern. You bet more when the count is high since there are a lot of 10s and Aces left in the deck.(Favorable to the player.) They have a camera over the table and their staff can count cards too. It is not that hard. They can also tell if they spot a player who stands on 16s vs 10 sometimes and hits other times. When their are more 10s in the deck then small cards, a good card counter will stay on a 16. This is the most common basic strategy variation that card counters employ. If a player is doing both of these, and it correlates with the count, they have a pretty good idea that you are a card counter and can ask you to leave or play any other game but blackjack.
     This is why teams work so well. You have several players on several tables. They give a signal and then a big bettor shows up when things are favorable. However, I would guess that you have to be sly, because eventually they will notice this pattern too.

I wonder why some casinos bans him, is it due to card counting? If so, how the casinos knows that your friend did card counting?
I have never seen any casinos that provides blackjack has a clear term about card counting, so I don't think card counting is something against the rules or cheating. It means that there should be no reasons for any casino to ban players because of card counting. Card counting is a skill and knowledge, it is not always correct as well so it should be something legal to be done.

People are doing and they're making pretty good money while doing it, so i guess to a point, it does work. I just don't a lot of people can efficiently  do it on a consistent basis. First two times i played black jack i tried  counting the cards when a friend told me about the technique. Not successful. Just lost more money trying to apply it and see if it works.

your friend is really good at that strategy  . his talent can give him a fortune if he will only know how to use it properly  . he can just pretend to play like a noob and will not use his strategy all the time or he can play of on a different sites  .

  he can also earn extra profit by teaching those strategy to other people  . there are strategies that are already laid out on the web but the problem is the timing on what is the right time to apply it  .

 thats why there are coaches pertaining to gambling  .

I believe we can do everything as long as we put our minds to it. If you say this isn’t for you then lets know which one belongs to you. Every gambling game requires focus if we really need to succeed and card counting is just one of such that if do not learnt to focus and avoid all forms of distraction; you might likely never get through.

I was once this way. I had issues with everything related to number and I had a very forgetful memory and this automatically disqualified me from card counting but one of the days, I told myself I would  and I can do it, I did and ever since I keep on improving, card counting is okay and it works in blackjack I must say.

It is really not that hard. All someone needs to do is learn the basic strategy, (which everyone who plays blackjack should do anyway,) know how to count backwards and forwards, and be able to divide by the number of decks you have left. The only thing you need to keep in your mind is the running count. Also, when the dealer shuffles up, your count starts at zero again. It is basically elementary school math. Also, back in the day, most people could remember their phone number and other people's phone numbers memorized for a long time. all you need to remember is what your running count is, which is one number.  Also, you just need to learn like 20 basic strategy variation based on the count. the two that you will use most often is take insurance if the count is really high (lots of 10s in the deck) and stand on 16 vs 10 if the count is positive. Also, if the running count is negative, you can remember it by replacing the word "negative" with N or M (for minus) or d for down.

The way I see it, card counting is only effective and real to a bunch of mathematical and memory wizards. Even if someone will study and practice card counting over and over again, if his mental capacity or his IQ is really below the wizard level, he will not make forward steps. Card counters are more of a bunch of nerds for me. And their abilities are really beyond that of a normal person. No wonder why there are only a handful of them in the world.  

Yes, I was a solo card counter and my bankroll was small. I think the small bankroll was my downfall. Also, I never kept any logs of my wins and losses. I may have actually came out ahead, but the proceeds were so small, that it didn't seem like I was actually winning in the long run. Also, playing blackjack online in the early 2000s didn't help. Since those games always played like the cards were shuffled every time. I still think most games play that way unless it is a "livegame" when playing online.

I believe card counting in Blackjack will truly allow gamblers to gain a better house edge against the casino only if there are a lot of cards under the value of 7 which came out from the card shoe on a table, but having a slightly better advantage of house edge against the casino does not meant that the player will always win against the dealer due to the factor of luck. It also requires a huge amount of bankroll in order to execute the card counting strategy efficiently, that is one of the reason most card counting players are always working as a team with a leader funding the huge bankroll for the team.

Most casinos have already started to use a continuous shuffle machine for every blackjack table to prevent card counting players from playing blackjack, and I do not think card counting will work anymore for blackjack with these continuous shuffle machine placed on each table.

Counting cards will be an advantage for those gamblers who really keen in succession to take some edge, it's very tough but there's always possibilities even in  small chances you'll be able to work it out, focusing and allowing yourself to manage memorizing those numbers of decks and keep trying to achieved your desires advantages after learning the right system to use.

I think card counting  is only effective in Hi-Lo count or on a smaller deck.
Not sure if it is any benefit in any other situation ?

Well as what layman’s term “Practice made Perfect “yet in gambling there is no perfect after all.but I do agree that in some point counting cards can help us analyze the cards of our opponents but ofcourse this needs to be skillful fo this to mastering so if you have lack of experience on this better not to rely when playing because you may just face losses

Seems to be an extreme precaution to deter cardcounting? But yes, that really sounded unusual. I don't think they even do that in physical casinos.

Going trough the wiki card counting article [interesting read!] it will work and give you a advantage. Check the Expected profit part.
The shuffle deck will be your worst enemy here.

I suppose there are some progressive jackpot slots that have mandatory payouts. Don't know quite how it works but they are guaranteed to pay out the jackpot at least once per day, or week, or whatever time period. So if you look at jackpot slots where the jackpot hasn't been won in however long, I guess the thinking is that it has to pay out sooner or later? Maybe that's what he's talking about.

Counting card?

It works, if not, he won't talk about how to handle "backoffs" in this video. *Requires substantial amount of imagination to make up this kind of things. lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjUX_r_fOgI

"You are not a card counter if you haven't been thrown out multiple times from various casinos." - Random Wise Dude

     That is not the way they are supposed to work.  Also, my understanding was that most casinos don't let their employees play. I could be wrong on this point, though.

I am surprised he was saying that the online blackjack he plays uses a new deck every hand, I am sure this is NOT the case for most, you should also be able to team up online, have a buddy who is the same room, etc, etc.

Huh. Didn't know there were slot machines whose odds changed when people were losing. Well, you learn something new every day I suppose.

   I have a degree in math and card counting requires elementary school math. (Counting up and down. Negative numbers, division and maybe some fractions.)I don't think this was my particular problem. Also, retaining a count in your head only involves short term memory. You do not need to be like the character in Rainman and keep track of the value of every single card..
  Also, I just downloaded a simulator program, and according to my trial runs of several 400 million hand rounds, if my bet range was 25 to 100 dollars, the expected long term return was less than 1 dollar per hour.   Perhaps that was my problem.  Many times, I would only bet between $5 and 25$. So the returns seem to be even more puny. Taking a "break" and playing another game like the slots, could have easily wiped out any returns. It appears that in order to get a decent return of 20.00 per hour, I would need to bet between $500 and $2000 per hand. I never had that kind of bankroll. Plus I am sure on the bigger limit tables, the heat one gets from the pitboss would increase..

I can only report two instances where I actually experienced heat in the casinos. In one, I upped my bet from 25.00 to 50.00 and the pit boss came over and looked at all of the cards in the discard tray. I knew what he was doing, so I left. The second instance, the pit boss simply pushed my bet back and stated that I could continue to play any other game but blackjack. Now that I have an idea of the expected returns from my card counting, it was probably of the least concern to them. Especially when they have other players on the table not playing the basic strategy.
I once had a player who was playing the no bust strategy and yelled at me because I hit a soft 17 and was "screwing up the cards."  

Start off by being competent at maths I think helps and also to do it in person requires a very good memory.   I wouldn't bet any size at all while practising such a thing, assume failure while you learn and of course the trick is old and looked for.  
  The reason it does work is probability is increased by knowing the nature of the deck vs your hand.   Since the odds in casino games are quite delicate for profit vs loss, you can turn a profit if you are very careful to calculate it all to your advantage.    I would not assume myself to be successful in such endeavours because I would likely be enjoying the beer and peanuts, too distracted and focus is required.
   I do doubt it works online, I've not really heard on that point but since they dont have to 'throw away' cards or anything physical it probably screws the whole edge gained quite easily.


I used to know of a barman who watched people losing on machines and then wait till the place was empty to then collect the now profitable slots return some of the cash deposited.   Thats playing the odds smart I guess, I think thats another common trick and again you have to track the rules to calculate advantages.

I guess many agree that card counting really exists and works with Blackjack but it will surely need a lot of practice to pull and I guess not anyone can pull it perfectly because many gamblers could surely learn the basics But can they pull it in the actual game of Blackjack,

I guess you can sure teach yourself how to play cards and learn magic-using card tricks but to pull out a basic card counting really require experience and focus on the game, Here are links to some tutorial that I have watched that is talking about basic card counting in blackjack. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHK2C-QQR-k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_So72lFNIU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O35_FmBuSsg

That movie was a classic but more unrealistic in the world of the casino's actually beating up gamblers and not more or less kicking them off the property and not allowing them back.

Not much into blackjack but it does work. I remember about a group from MIT that went around winning on blackjack (a movie was made about them iirc). I suppose a single player can do that, albeit with a bit more difficulty.

Thing is casinos seem to be on the look out for cardcounters and they can kick you out so you'd have to be modest about it. Might work better online.

Ofcourse you cannot be sure what cards are those still on top but you can only have guesses since the quantity of cards is given already after counting the cards down.
But what I do more believe is reading Eyes of the opponent specially when we are closing to endgame in which few cards are left and the reaction of opponent can give us idea what cards they hold still

I've known this guy in Macau who was extremely good in card counting though he knows the repercussions if he continued doing so in a regular basis. He's not a huge gambler, often just bagging $10k a night and does again in a different gambling center. He never divulged the secrets into card counting but the 'key,' he said, is to look in the 'eyes' of the dealer who shuffles the card and count how many times their eyes 'flicked' from either sides. It sounds like bullshit but he just showed me how to win consistently by doing just that. Perhaps there's more to card counting that I never bothered to learn yet it amazes me up to this day how that lad from Eastern Europe sacked tons of $ in my 1-week stay in Macau.

Well you can still trick the casinos, just keep a low profile bet so that you won't make some noise. As for card counting, not my thing though, usually when I go and play on landbased casino me and my friends will take advantage of the free drink so mentality I will be on a disadvantage for playing black jack.

sure this is working.
When you count down all card that are played you can be really sure witch cards are left at least to the end of the game.
That with a bit luck makes counting gamblers high chance to win on blackjack.

regards

It definitely does work and some people doing it but casinos did put countermeasures to prevent card counting including banning the person doing it.
although I haven't encountered someone doing it but thinking about it logically. card counting is possible to people with high concentration and can remember
things easily.

I've only seen the first half of that movie, but my bet is they run into some serious trouble because 1) its a movie so there has to be a conflict, 2) they were signaling each other, which is definitely cheating regardless of whether you're counting cards or not.

Card counting definitely works, as there are professional card counters, however once casinos get wind of what they're doing they usually shut them out. This is a good video of the process of what happens when a card counter gets noticed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HjwzJyCQlQ

Interestingly, the guy was still down when they kicked him out -- they recognized exactly what he was doing just from the way he was placing bets (making huge bet increases when the "shoe" got small).

So for online poker, you could say use something like a mini computer with an AI optical sensor and have it count and display out on a different monitor and tell you what to do? I wonder how online will defend against things like AI counting cards?

I have known card counting ever since I watched the movie 21. Have anyone watched it too? It has been an eye-opener for me because I wanted to know how to gamble correctly. Correctly meaning I profit, lol. Then when I knew that it was hard to card count, I didn't bother anymore. That movie taught me that it's illegal to card count. Then recently, I have watched a short video that is about card counting. I'm quite confused because he said that it's somehow allowed and it gives you an edge versus the casino.

Anyway, card counting has been around, and it gives you edge with blackjack, and I do think it works, you have to practice it a lot and become good at it.

As per my experience, I think the biggest drawback for me is my inability to focus to be able to sustain long runs. I don't drink when I play blackjack, but I've noticed that I'm drained myself just to count the cards. That's why I just simply play just couple of hours and if I've noticed that I'm making mistakes then I quit. Yes it takes a lot of practice, but if you don't have that energy to concentrate in long stretches I guess sooner or later you will have slips up that will result you in losing money.

I'm pretty sure it's well accepted that card counting is legitimate and a real thing. It honestly sounds like you may not have been too good at it . Maybe you need a bit more practice?

   Back in the day of my heavy gambling. I fancied myself a card counter. I usually employed a simple count where 3-6 counted as plus one and 10s counted as minus one. I also did an estimate of how many decks were left to arrive at the "true count."  Unfortunately, my experience was not very fruitful for me. Part of the problem was that I started gambling online. Since most games that I am aware of basically starts with a fresh deck each hand, card counting was worthless. However, I don't think my brick and mortar experiences had me coming out ahead, either. I'm just wondering if the strategy of card counting doesn't really work.
   It does perplex me that casinos have taken measures against card counting if it doesn't work, though. I even had the experience of having my bet pushed back and informed by the pit boss that I could play any game other than blackjack. If card counting is indeed a bunch of bullshit, I am clueless why casinos would prohibit me from playing, and apparently have now implemented continuous shuffling.
   If card counting does indeed work for the right games, I am thinking the following factors may have contributed to my overall losses.
A) Inability to quit. I'm sure after being awake for 24 hours plus, my card counting abilities were probably hampered.
B) Drinking alcohol.
C) I may have been making more errors in my counting than I want to admit.
D) My bankroll was too small for the level of betting that I was doing.
E) In order to hide my card counting, I usually only had a spread of 1-4 units. Perhaps this is too small for card counting to work.

Please share with me your thoughts.