Topic: "Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' " (Read 3781 times)

Yea bb being called on the bluff but he doesnt lie hes not a greenspan. Usd is a buy.

Don't know about multi-year rally, but the USD has just been spanked black and blue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/currencies-go-berserk-bernanke-kills-king-dollar

Interesting that BTC spikes sharply up too. Perhaps it is indeed becoming more integrated with the world's financial markets as time goes on.

what?

so, then ... the world IS RULED BY....

I think SEC Agent has left us?

You know, since we're all just having fun here and you've told your fair share of untruths, not even trying to place them in a proper form such as reframing of an argument, yes, let's start with the claim that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens.

Evidence that that may be so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDKdHuyQpHY

I rest my case.

May we politely request then, that our resident SEC Agent be replaced with one that was a better liar?

It is less arbitrary than it seems.  What he does is subtract the "adjustments" that have been made to the CPI over the decades which were added to show a lower inflation number.
The adjustments were added in order to cut USA entitlement spending, which is indexed to CPI.

Sure, the original adjustments, and also subtracting them, could be called arbitrary.  They are what they are.  The information is useful in both forms.  

Fundamentally, neither of these metrics are perfect indicators of inflation, the shadowstats numbers are just showing what the CPI would show without the budget-saving adjustments.  Democratic presidents can more easily cut entitlements because they get buy-in from their opposition and those loyal to them more or less follow along, so Clinton and Obama have an easier time cutting the CPI.
The Bush folks had an easier time increasing spending.  This principle shows the political perversity of party politics.  It is easier to go against one's political base to get things done.

"Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former U.S. Senator Alan K. Simpson suggested a transition to using a "chained CPI" in 2010, when they headed the White House’s deficit-reduction commission. They stated that it was a more accurate measure of inflation than the current system and switching from the current system could save the government more than $290 billion over the decade following their report. "The chained CPI is usually 0.25 to 0.30 percentage points lower each year, on average, than the standard CPI measurements."
Whether the reason it was adopted was more because it was "more accurate" or that using this accounting trick improves the government picture "more than $290 billion over the decade following their report" can be left to your own imagination.  

US$290 Billion pays for a lot of SEC agents.  If one of the companies SEC agents regulate tried such an accounting trick, would the result be as easily accepted?

It is simple.  He fully explains the methodology used behind the calculations in his charts.  These methods are clearly explained on his website.

It is factual, then that you misrepresent his methods.

We can proceed to the following conclusion, which fortunately, you have provided us.

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his YOUR credibility

He posts "alternate charts" for inflation (which are just the CPI with an arbitrary constant added....which is why his charts have the same exact curve but at a higher percentage level) which he says is necessary because CPI doesn't account for food and energy (which we know is bullshit).  

Here are is adjusted chart for reference:



When he misses such a basic fact about how CPI is calculated, and then proceeds to produce new "correct" charts and a website to spout bullshit on how the US Gov misrepresents statistical data, how could you possibly trust his word on anything else related to inflation? Or anything having to do with statistics overall for that matter?

I don't believe that you are actually too dense to understand how this destroys his credibility; I think at this point, you are just arguing for the sake of arguing (or at least I hope so).  

Today's status quo was *shaped* by all of such details.  The probability vectors [*giggle*] that ignored such things were quickly & unceremoniously pruned by reality.  I'm not sure if it's as obvious to everyone as it is to me.

It was not ignored.  I agree that there is very likely a flaw, or more than one.  
I am however hoping for some substantiation of what you mean by "entire methodology is flawed", or a mention of the flaw to which you refer.
A single flaw may not completely destroy credibility.  As careful as we may be, we each have flaws.  You and I included.
If by methodology, you simply mean that it is wrong to analyze national data to determine how the method of calculating it changes over time, we'll disagree.

The CPI data is used to compute entitlements, and Inflation adjusted bonds.
So in budget balancing, it can be useful to skew it downward to slow growth of entitlements.  
Understanding the extent of the skewing seems a useful endeavor, so the methodology has at least some merit.
The reasons for skewing it when it is done, tend to list other reasons than entitlement cuts, but the effect is the same.  Clinton (quality adjustment) and Obama (chained CPI) administrations both cut entitlements in this way.

As an SEC agent, you know that the market reacts differently to "earnings" that appear due to an accounting change than it does to earnings that appear due to increased sales.

I was third on the Milk issue, by adding the national data, if you missed where that started..
The multi-generational dollar downtrend is a reference to other's previous posts (covering time since Fed 1913+), not the single decade of milk data.


The broader SEC Agent point of BTC being no replacement for any fiat currency is currently very valid.
BTC "whales" are investors with a few million's invested.
We haven't seen real whales yet, much less the leviathans lurking in the deep, so the volatility is going to keep wrecking the BTC market, until it doesn't.

Milk seemed to be your choice, you effectively used it to illustrate the dollar's "multi-generational downtrend" just about here:


I even liked your funny about "our SEC agent's wisdom." 
America's dairy farmers will shed a collective tear as they discover that milk's no longer Libertarian's economic indicator of choice, but i'm fine with falling back to the metrics already in place. 
Oh, and this:

Still trying to decide which of my sides haz redeeming merit so that i could cling to it

It's awfully convenient that you completely ignore the first paragraph of the post. You know, the part of the post that explains how his entire methodology is flawed?

I cant imagine why you would do that...

Since you provided no link for this, I went looking.  The closest thing I can find is others making the same claim that he wrote this.  The closest thing I can find on that matter is significantly more sane.  Jason Hamlin wrote that for gold to reach the bubble level it had previously -according to John Williams inflation metrics- it would have to reach 8890.  So it seems his only connection to it is tangential.
http://www.munknee.com/2012/02/will-gold-peak-at-2500-8890-or-15000/

I didn't find any John Williams prediction that it would reach this price within any time at all,  Maybe you have it?  Others have also claimed that he John Williams claimed this so perhaps he has other messages that upset folks so that they feel the need to distort them in order to discredit him.  Perhaps you went looking for something outrageous from John Williams and found a distortion of someone else's that you chose to repeat as if it were true?  I may have missed it though, let me know if you find that link.
https://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/gold-8890-silver-517-williams-shadow-stats/

That gold didn't reach 8890 may suggest that either his inflation metrics are off or that gold wasn't in a bubble, or that the person who actually wrote it was just wrong, but even that was only ever stated as a conditional statement.  

However your credibility metric is 0 for 1 so far, pending a reference, as your claim about him wrong and his wasn't.  How about 2 out of 3?

Aside from "What's the difference between USD/EUR 'relative to each other' and BTC/USD 'relative to each other'"...
Yeah, I keep hearing "you people" say that, and keep hearing everyone else who isn't from America who doesn't give a shit about USD disagreeing.

Besides, quit complaining about Bitcoin being a new, nascent currency with still-low adoption rates. We all know that already. 

Those (EUR/USD) are price shifts relative to each other, and have very little to do with day to day purchase power of USD (because people dont "cash out" into EUR, with the exception of forex traders) .  On the other hand, the current BTC economy is integrally tied to USD, and the relative price of BTC/USD directly effects BTC purchase power.



Right, because 200-300% swings in value are the hallmark of a healthy economy.....

His methodology is flawed from the get go. He claims that CPI doesn't account for things like food and energy costs (and yet, we were just discussing CPI stats about the cost of milk, and energy costs are definitely factored in http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ).

Otherwise, he has made some pretty outragous claims for precious metals (ie gold at $8,890 oz) that havent even remotely panned out.

I wouldn't really call 5% to 10% fluctuations "stable," that's all. And that's despite USD and EUR having trillions of dollars market caps, compared to Bitcoin's 1 billion. That's really the ONLY reason Bitcoin is unstable, anyway - small market cap.


By the way, sorry I joined this conversation late, but was there any news of Dollars rallying about 200% to 300%? If not, I'll stick with bitcoins, thanks.

I would hazard to guess that these topics are not his original research.  Likely also true for John Williams, though possibly a bit more of the analysis may be original there.
To your question as to why explain what is credible to you, that was to let have the opportunity to your support your claim.  
I can't vouch for or against any of these folks, so I am relying on your expertise and am curious as to how you reached the conclusion.
Crazy people also sometimes say true things, especially if they heard it from somewhere more credible than they, but whom they happen to agree with in some way.  Media likes crazy people so much that sometimes the sane even have to act crazy to get attention.

So why the shadowstats incredible?

I have no idea why you would think that comparing the USD/EUR pair to the USD/BTC pair strengthens your argument in any way.  If anything it shows that government controlled currency is FAR more stable than your internet monopoly money.

Look at this nice steady graph. The pinnacle of stability!

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=1Y

Milk wasn't my choice.  Am just sharing what is out there.  
Thanks for contributing, since you brought up the new metric, how do you like to measure "national economy"?  
More data, please.

No. In fact, I stated that the rapid swings in price is part of what makes BTC a poor substitute for the dollar.



Bullshit.

The content of what they say is what drives their credibility.  

Take Ick, for example; he claims that the world is ruled by shape-shifting reptilian aliens. Do I need to explain why this isn't credible, or why anyone with an ounce of sanity would ignore what he has to say?

You're forgetting that it swung up from $15 to $266 in less than three months before that. This was a horrendous ouch



I'm still recovering 
And you're right, USD only swings around at 5% to 10% or so every few months. It's just that no one notices, since everyone buys their stuff in their native currency.


By the a, I don't like using things like milk to estimate inflation, because that's heavily influenced by gas prices, too. When prices go up, shipping companies start charging hefty gas surcharges.

We agree, Ouch.  The numbers have some meaning here, more explanation might be useful.

How is credibility measured, please? (Links?)
I am more interested in the credibility of the content over who repeats it, but I will settle for what you can help me with, for this.

A fall from $266 to $87 in less than 3 months is a major loss of purchasing power in an extremely short period of time (as is $32 to $2 over 5 months).  If USD swung like that, there would be riots.


It's cute that you think your chart makes BTC look like a viable alternative to USD, though.

Oh no. Poor dollar holders getting pulverized...

Speaking of losing purchasing power:





Ouch.

What a fucking joke.  Are you going to quote Alex Jones or David Ick next?  (because they are about as equally credible as John Williams)

The BLS has also been considered as the "Bureau of Lies and Stories"

Inflation stats using the official 1990 method show how much revision and hedonics has gone on recently....

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

The government uses multiple metrics to get a more complete picture of actual inflation.  The CPI is far from the be-all end-all, and certainly is not the only metric used in measuring inflation and influencing policy-making decisions.

I think you're on the right track.  Price of milk should be adopted as the new metric of national economy.  All them ivory tower chalkboard economists with their GDP this, standard of living that and their fancy learningz!  Got Milk?

Then our Bureau of Labor Statistics is asinine. Tell it to the BLS.
The CPI has been adjusted all sorts of ways to reduce the visibility of inflation.  It is losing trust as a metric, so this suggestion of how to fix it should be well received by them.  Go for it.

No, I am stating that using the price of milk as evidence of runaway inflation is asinine, because it ignores all of the other factors that drive the price.

Is your suggestion that the Dollar receives no subsidies?  Or that it is less than what Milk gets?

I've been rereading your tagline.  It is a beautiful sentiment.
"It may be laid down as a primary position, and the basis of our system, that every Citizen who enjoys the protection of a Free Government, owes not only a proportion of his property, but even of his personal services to the defense of it."
-George Washington

I heartily agree with this.  To a Free Government we can devote our property, sweat and blood with pride.  Freedom is an outgrowth of Liberty, which is always precious and fragile.  From misplaced fear, we must resist plunging daggers into Liberty's breast to spill blood on the altar of security.  We would do well to heal those wounds when we are able.



Another brilliant piece of sage advice from our greatest founder:

“Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.”
― George Washington

This advice was written in 1787 to Jabez Bowen (1739-1815), a lawyer in Providence, was deputy governor of Rhode Island, and is as true today as ever.

You are ignoring all of the factors that come into play with the price of milk, besides purchasing power of the dollar.

Subsidies, government regulations, competition, demand, weather (ie: droughts), feed and equipment costs (which are further driven by different subsidies, regs, weather etc) etc. all drive the price of milk.

It is highly disingenuous to say that the increase in price is solely (or even mostly) due to inflation.

Back to the point.

Over the last 10 years, our US Dollar, AKA Federal Reserve Note, buys about 45% less milk.
Using gold (lets be generous and use the highest price from 2003, US$363.58 and the lowest price from 2013, US$1,180 to make it look as bad as possible) if we were using gold to buy our milk instead of the FRN, we would get about 300% more milk.
If we used bitcoin, we'd own the farm instead.
So milk has been getting cheaper, just not cheap enough to keep up with the rate that dollars have been getting cheaper.

So dollars go bad faster than milk. 
Over this time period we did well if we sold dollars for milk, gold and BTC as fast as you get them.
Our SEC agent's wisdom must be based on the buy-low sell-high philosophy, the question is, will US$ ever be high?  Its on a multi-generational downtrend, we may just be looking for the greater fool.

Wait, what?

Are you actually implying that drinking milk is childish?




edit: I absolutely love the irony of someone with the username "hashman" calling something childish (and using silly internet acronyms like "TRWFT" in the process).  The lack of self awareness is palpable.

I live in a major US city surrounded by agricultural areas.  The milk is produced locally, which may be why I pay slightly less than average. PCCS on the other hand, seems to be paying  @ $1 over the average due to his remote location.

Exactly. 

Then thats a supply problem in your area why would u bring that up in context of an argument here??

Ya the good ol days .... the year I was born lol.

Cost of a new home:    $19,300.00
Cost of a first-class stamp:    $0.04
Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $0.30
Cost of a dozen eggs:    $0.55
Cost of a gallon of Milk:    $0.49

Dow-Jones    
High:    767
Low:    646

TRWTF is a grown man drinking milk. 

From the US dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor statistics:
Series Id:  APU0000709112
Area:       U.S. city average
Item:       Milk, fresh, whole, fortified, per gal. (3.8 lit)

Year    Jan       Feb       Mar     Apr     May     Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec     Annual
2003   2.686   2.689   2.656   2.674   2.685   2.676   2.708   2.666   2.904   2.905   2.937   2.947   
2004   2.879   2.814   2.786   2.906   3.374   3.574   3.479   3.297   3.149   3.161   3.219   3.233   
2005   3.304   3.176   3.226   3.225   3.207   3.122   3.090   3.136   3.133   3.171   3.211   3.241   
2006   3.197   3.224   3.161   3.123   3.066   3.001   3.083   3.019   3.049   3.064   2.985   3.004   
2007   3.067   3.083   3.072   3.135   3.259   3.427   3.736   3.807   3.841   3.838   3.904   3.870   
2008   3.871   3.869   3.781   3.799   3.760   3.773   3.961   3.886   3.773   3.656   3.734   3.681   
2009   3.575   3.319   3.116   3.084   3.068   3.009   2.992   2.979   2.981   3.046   3.034   3.105   
2010   3.236   3.203   3.188   3.140   3.178   3.297   3.313   3.303   3.278   3.321   3.327   3.318   
2011   3.301   3.357   3.503   3.597   3.653   3.622   3.654   3.713   3.715   3.622   3.557   3.565   
2012   3.583   3.520   3.499   3.474   3.427   3.396   3.428   3.474   3.469   3.524   3.536   3.580   
2013   3.526   3.480   3.431   3.428   3.441               

So is our SEC agent living in the past, or is not living in USA?
Or maybe gets a nice subsidy?

Largest grocery store within 100 miles .... don't have much choice around here.

Alea iacta est

Because you shop like an idiot?

Seriously, I pay $2.75 for a gallon of milk.

If the dollar is so strong then why did it cost me $4.39 for a gallon of milk the other day?

They're just playin with the numbers and telling people what they want to hear.

Actually, no. I'm just making fun of Elwar, and bitcoins are low-hanging fruit.

OK. This is 2009. Can't imagine what an updated 2013 image looks like....

I don't know about that. Might be true but not what I was thinking.

To him we are playing with illusions and monopoly money.  Its his opinion, and he seems earnest in warning us from our folly.  But we will mostly ignore that advice because we like what we are doing for our own reasons.  To me he seems afraid of things that don't worry me.  So i thank him for expressing his opinion here where doing so supports a cause that he himself does not support, the bitcoin business that is this forum.  That unbridled kindness toward strangers deserves thanks.  That he is also so very unconvincing in all that he writes is another small bonus.  If some are convinced by the message of fear, than that shows places where education is needed and better messaging from those that better understand the issue.

After all, he could be doing all this on quatloos instead.

I think what he's trying to say is that if you have faith and stick to dollars and there's a problem, then some of those who kept the faith will get bailed out when the troubles come.  And you'd have a chance at those riches.  If you just ... you know ... play the game right....

Thank you for your conscientious concern for our well being.  Americans are free to spend money on illusions.  Thank you for protecting that freedom and not preventing us from wasting our wealth on Bitcoins.  Your opinion on the matter is noticed, many disagree and like the illusion of math and software allowing us the opportunity to transact across great distances among ourselves with our monopoly money.  It is a fun game for us.  Thanks for watching us play, it is nice to have a audience generating advertising revenue for our forum creators.  Even if you are never going to play, you are helping in your own way.

If you keep blowing your real money on Internet Monopoly Money, you won't have to worry about factoring in any of that anyways (because you'll be broke).

I need to start thinking your way.

already said this in 2011 buy usd on every dip. See qe vs usdx 5 yr chart thats the hint.

My monthly spending was through the roof until I stopped factoring in the mortgage and gas. After that my spending dropped dramatically.

Next month I may stop factoring in the money I spend on food and I may start seeing a huge surplus in my household.

Doesn't seem like a good strategic move to me unless you just have some irrational dislike of Bitcoin.

Some folks, such as these, see hidden dangers due to fiscal policy issues.
My crystal ball is not so well polished, it could easily be otherwise.

Fractional reserve is not so bad in itself, it really depends on the fraction, and what makes up the reserve.

USD will rise when its interest rate to default likelihood is a better deal than whatever is the denominator.  Its value is relative risk/reward.
The EUR has its own constellation of issues.

BTC could go to zero at a greater liklihood than most fiat (currently), so time deposits (bonds, CDs) that are BTC denominated should pay a higher rate than fiat to compensate for that risk.  There is also default risk, and counter-party risk, which has to be compensated as well. Those risks are perceived as low due to Ben Bernanke's vote of confidence. He has a great track record on his public comments.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw

The fact that you believe this explains why you are having such a hard time understanding why the dollar is so strong.

Those inflation rates are the BS ones the fed puts out it doesn't count food or fuel or anything else that would push the number up inflation under 3% my arse.

Inflation rates are looking good too.

Get used to it. Despite all of the fear mongering that goes on around these forums, the dollar isn't going anywhere.

I just don't get it how is the USD still so strong  Is the world filled idiots who want to except fractional reserved garbage forever when their are better ways to exchange value. The metals plunge i understand the fed is shorting the metals market but the USD/EUR rising i don't get .

A little whisper from Ben that they might someday consider buying less, it scares away other bond buyers, and the Fed gets a bunch more interest on their T-bills, the economy slows, and the Fed own an increasing share of US debt for the next generation and a half.

This is what inflation is, ready yourselves

    
Re: "Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' "

I don't disagree, but everything can be changed at the whim of a single individual. Its risky, risk of the incalculable kind.

Of course.



I won't be buying them at any price.  If I wanted to burn money, I'd just use my lighter.

I am glad you believe that. Do not buy bitcoins at their low price.

For relativistic definitions of infinity?  Or is this hyperbole?

It's infinitely more useful than your internet monopoly money (which appears to be crashing as we speak).

From the article:
"The federal deficit is expected to fall to 4% this fiscal year, and drop to 3% by 2019"
2013 total spending: $3.8 trillion
2013 total revenue: $2.9 trillion
Deficit: $.9 trillion = 23%

You want to know how I know you are a government shill article?

Great news!

Gold and silver are down, dollar is up, just means there is a sale on gold and silver.  I like getting my silver for 50% off.

Considering we are about a month away from the Federal Reserve buying all of our Treasury bonds (currently buying over 80%), I am not surprised by desperation in trying to get other countries to want to buy our dollars.

We are too far gone. The dollar is useless.

Nope, that isn't going to happen.

The reserve status of the dollar currently is not formal, and other national banks use other kinds of fiat plus gold as reserves. It is more that dollar is the most popular (the best) money type for international trade. Even parties with two different fiats outside the dollar area may prefer to go via dollar to avoid spread and slippage. It is a long way to go to displace dollar for international trade.

As the reserve currency the US has a position of strength in this Currency War. From reading Rickards book, these kinds of currency battles can last years so it may be a long battle.

In saying that, China has set up direct swap lines with the UK, Australia and I think Russia? This is a way of cutting out the US as middleman and suggests that there isn't much trust there.

Not many economies are improving and most indicators are screwed up. Gold is heading down at the same time stocks are, so the stocks v gold debate is sorta moot.

Bitcoin is still solid though but I think everyone knows the regulation shock is coming.

Agreed.

The dollar could easily be the last one standing, while all other fiat fails. It will then obtain value due to increased user base. It will certainly not raise due to improving economy or getting the fiscal house in order, because the economy is not improving, and the fiscal house is not in order.

They can do that, but then we can also drain our fields dry, make a killing on the markets, I'm taking trillions $$$ and one we're bone dry of all the oil we dumped, we will start using our H2O patents to power our cars off of water.


I think that would be the best thing for our economy, loads of high paying jobs, we would not know what to do with our reserves.

and this process has been ongoing for over 50 yrs

Yeah, I ha been hearing this song since the mid 2000's, and nothing has happened yet.

In fact, all I see is improvement.

petro/gold?

Not sure about this, gold breached $1300 today, down from $1800.

If the worlds economy is going to be based in part upon gold then the selloff? It's getting dumped enmass

"Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and another crisis of confidence in the dollar is on its way. This time the consequences will be far worse than those confronting Nixon. The growth in globalization, derivatives and leverage over the past forty years have made financial panic and contagion all but impossible to contain."

"The new crisis will likely begin in the currency markets and spread quickly to stocks, bonds and commodities. When the dollar collapses, the dollar-denominated markets will collapse too. Panic will quickly spread throughout the world."

from a newsletter published today: http://dailyreckoning.com/prelude-to-currency-wars/

You may recognize the source - DR has been positive about BTC for at least a couple of years.

Just American hype to prop up their falling dollar.

Check the amount of US bonds the Chinese hold and how they are ready to switch the entire world oil economy from petro/US to petro/gold and therby remove the US$ as the worlds reserve currency.

This move will bring about the economic downfall of the US and hurt the west but above all it will mean the US no longer has a defacto income from dumping bonds / cash onto the world market.

Yep, word on the street is dollar is going to rally against other currencies. Now the question is will it rally against Bitcoin.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/20/investing/dollar-bull-fed/index.html