Topic: don't panic, btc is doing well ! (Read 5924 times)

It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

Only noobs panic.

People with at least some level of trading experience are having a good time now.

It might be the last chance to buy at these levels, don't miss it.

It's okay, he still had all nine lives when that was filmed.

Troll Spotter: mindtrust is a serial troll.  I've seen him in multiple threads spewing his FUD. just add to ignore list

Of course btc will shoot up if it becomes an ETF the real challenge is IF it becomes an ETF. 10k might be a little crazy but 1k is more realistic within the first year of becoming an ETF if it makes it

I love the ship of bitcoin. It is beautiful and I love the concept. I am being real now. I am protecting my assets that I have left and I would recommend you all do the same.

Yes, poor kitty

can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Well, BTC is like a great ship, there's nothing wrong with the ship but passengers screaming and running off the ship. You stop and ask the passengers why, they answer "I dunno, cuz everyone else is."

If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic

That is true, but it's not looking at the larger picture.  If my $1 share falls to 50c how much value have I lost?  50%.  From the level of 50c, by how much does my investment need to rise in value to get back to $1?  50%?  Of course not.  It now needs to rise by 100%.  The seemingly small falls mask how large the gains have to be just for my investment to return to even.

can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

= risen by factor 80

= fallen by factor 4

It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

Why shouldn't we panic when btc is still under $500.

I direct myself to the OP:

Now, first of all, hands off the ignore button. I consider the 'Oh-I-disagree-with-you-IGNORE' reflex as a kind of mediocre self defence mechanism, which does not really contribute in getting a decent view on any given situation. Fact of the matter is: this topic breathes panic. It is another one of those topics that, seemingly desperately, tries to keep as many people in the sinking ship as possible. What we do know pretty much for certain is this:

- 'Adoption' as it is used as an argument here, each and every time, is extremely overrated. I still see no one using Bitcoin, nor did I ever hear someone else talk about using it to buy things. Also, why should merchants all over the world start using something this volatile?
- The press revolving around Bitcoin is close to 90% 'negative press'.
- The 'weak hands', or in each case the average Joe that got fucked during the latest bubble, is leaving 'the game'. Without the average Joe, market manipulation will be a lot harder as there is less to gain.
- The Bitcoin price has been steadily dropping for months already and for now there is absolutely no end in sight. Bitcoin just is overvalued, whatever some of the more prominent members on these boards are saying. The ones that are talking their order book that is.
 - Most importantly: historical data does not, in any way, guarantee that Bitcoin will recover. There are multiple second generation Cryptocoins out there already and it has always been argued that Bitcoin might have simply been a first step. Bitcoin might very well be destroyed in the next few months/years.
- As long as the price keeps dropping, miners will get more and more uncomfortable which will probably affect the price drop.

^
Herd mentality somehow got a bad rap in this herd of special snowflakes.  Herd mentality is an adoptive behavior, herd animals fare much better within the herd than outside it.  Going against the herd may seem romantic, but it's not life-affirming.
/tangent
Anyhow, knowing about "herd mentality" nets you nothing.  If you see everyone selling (tanking the price), you should also sell (the price is going down, regardless of it being irrational).

TL;DR: Everyone panicking is cause enough to sell.  Due to panic or common sense, doesn't matter, the result's the same.

If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic

Very accurate, eh? Another one whose math I won't trust...
Gox prices, 266$ on the 10th April 2013, 66$ on the 5th July 2013, that's 24.8% not 15%.

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

I don't trust your math.

well there is always a hope for btc  but i am little bit worried  what should do sell them now or hold?

...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)

let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)