i wouldn't use this as a signal or even for analyzing the market and the upcoming bull-run but it is certainly an interesting chart to look at and do some analysis on.
we all know that most of 2018 and all of 2019 has been the accumulation phase where a lot of wise investors kept buying bitcoin regardless of the FUD in the media. looking at that chart we can explain why there is a big slope during 2019 red-line which is a year from the start of accumulation and goes upwards and it continues up until today as the accumulation is still ongoing and will slow down as the bull run itself starts and everyone becomes active again which should be in the second half of 2020.
Topic: Dormant bitcoins and bullrun correlation ? (Read 198 times)
Yes , totally agreed , but at the same time I would like to address an issue that Arrises because of this fact , apparently the Whales tries and generates false alarms by sending Bitcoins from one wallet to another , which in-turn causes panic for the newbies and to other people.
This is something that is more or so used by the bulls to scare the investors , make them panic sell/buy then encash when the time is right for them , therefore I won't ask you to ever follow these things .
Following whale movements is a stupid move imo. I'd actually honestly be better off if I hear a whale crashed the marked by selling everything. One large party selling to multiple others means better decentralization. But people follow these very large dormant addresses as if they decide Bitcoin's fate.. This is something that is more or so used by the bulls to scare the investors , make them panic sell/buy then encash when the time is right for them , therefore I won't ask you to ever follow these things .
We can always find correlations on everything here, from dormant bitcoin address to the number of post in this community, Lol. So I don't understand why there are so many analyst trying to really connect everything. We just have to use our common sense that those dormant bitcoin address are simply holders and wouldn't just cash out for the next coming years and will wait for the next eventual bull run. There's nothing special here, just simply making this complicated for everyone.
Just a quick reminder, the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork took place in August of 2017. This might be one reason why a good number of dormant wallets became active: to move their coins to a different wallet before they enter their previous "snapshotted" wallet's private keys to claim the forked coins.
OP,you can't just share a chart and ask for opinions.Can you tell us about your opinion,in regards to this chart?
If I understand this chart correctly,the lines represent the Bitcoin wallets that were last active(as a percent of the total Bitcoin supply).If we can oversimplify this a little bit,the lines represent the Bitcoin HODLers that decided to sell their BTC in the past.
There's something wrong with this chart.My brain hurts,when I'm watching it.
I can notice 2 things:
There are two downs in 2014 and 2018 on the red line,Bitcoin was in bearish trend during those years.
There's a spike on the blue line,at the end of 2017,when the Bitcoin price reached ATH.I guess many "sleeping" BTC wallets "woke up" back then.
If I understand this chart correctly,the lines represent the Bitcoin wallets that were last active(as a percent of the total Bitcoin supply).If we can oversimplify this a little bit,the lines represent the Bitcoin HODLers that decided to sell their BTC in the past.
There's something wrong with this chart.My brain hurts,when I'm watching it.
I can notice 2 things:There are two downs in 2014 and 2018 on the red line,Bitcoin was in bearish trend during those years.
There's a spike on the blue line,at the end of 2017,when the Bitcoin price reached ATH.I guess many "sleeping" BTC wallets "woke up" back then.
I mean, there obviously is a correlation: many people buy low and hodl their coins until price booms. That's why with price bumps you see dormant addresses waking up. This doesn't necessarily mean that with more addresses waking up, the price is going to crash drastically though - it's mostly still just speculation.
The red part of the chart could go up 20% more and only then have a drastic price crash. It just adds to the entire, exhaustive list of price influencing factors of BTC. I personally wouldn't rely on it.
The red part of the chart could go up 20% more and only then have a drastic price crash. It just adds to the entire, exhaustive list of price influencing factors of BTC. I personally wouldn't rely on it.
Yes , totally agreed , but at the same time I would like to address an issue that Arrises because of this fact , apparently the Whales tries and generates false alarms by sending Bitcoins from one wallet to another , which in-turn causes panic for the newbies and to other people.
This is something that is more or so used by the bulls to scare the investors , make them panic sell/buy then encash when the time is right for them , therefore I won't ask you to ever follow these things .
You can actually check the market price every now and then and then make a suitable investment, because at the end of the day , literally no one can predict what is going to happen in the market .
I do think in the upcoming years we will have *competition* as a major factor for determination of the market price , we do need certain updates for the same , I do hope we solve the issues with the lightning network .
People often read stories about how people became billionaires overnight band all and then come and Invest in Bitcoins , cannot wait for long and then at the end of the day complain here , remember some of those people waited from 2009 all the way till 2017 .
_Patience is the Key_
there is no direct correlation here. everything is increasing, the adoption, number of transactions, number of addresses with balance, number of outputs, and number of outputs that remained unspent for a long time. all of these are indicating more adoption and more adoption is causing the bull runs not just because some UTXOs remained unspent for a longer time.
same with when there is a drop in that chart, there is panic sells, people (those who wished to get rich over night) leaving,...
there are also some other factors to consider. for example the big drop in 2017 and 2018 in the number of UTXOs in that chart is mainly due to the huge number of airdrops. to claim these shitcoins people moved their bitcoins first then claimed the shitcoin using the same key. in other words the coins only changed pocket (from one address to another both controlled by the same person).
same with when there is a drop in that chart, there is panic sells, people (those who wished to get rich over night) leaving,...
there are also some other factors to consider. for example the big drop in 2017 and 2018 in the number of UTXOs in that chart is mainly due to the huge number of airdrops. to claim these shitcoins people moved their bitcoins first then claimed the shitcoin using the same key. in other words the coins only changed pocket (from one address to another both controlled by the same person).
Yeah. As people have realized that the amount of bitcoin is limited and it would get precious with the time, people are holding more than ever.
The decrease in active supply is also due to freezing of coins for BTC backed tokens like wrapped BTC and others as well freezed coins on Lightning network. There are also different hedge funds that are freezing their coins.
The decrease in active supply is also due to freezing of coins for BTC backed tokens like wrapped BTC and others as well freezed coins on Lightning network. There are also different hedge funds that are freezing their coins.
I mean, there obviously is a correlation: many people buy low and hodl their coins until price booms. That's why with price bumps you see dormant addresses waking up. This doesn't necessarily mean that with more addresses waking up, the price is going to crash drastically though - it's mostly still just speculation.
The red part of the chart could go up 20% more and only then have a drastic price crash. It just adds to the entire, exhaustive list of price influencing factors of BTC. I personally wouldn't rely on it.
The red part of the chart could go up 20% more and only then have a drastic price crash. It just adds to the entire, exhaustive list of price influencing factors of BTC. I personally wouldn't rely on it.
What do you think ?
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