Topic: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict (Read 667 times)

500 years is a very long time. That's 5 centuries ahead of us. I think the US will last for another 50 - 100 years until it's replaced by another superpower. There's speculation the EU will become a "force to reckon with" in the future. I can see China and Russia getting stronger after a US collapse. The fact that most countries have nukes, puts us on a very dangerous situation.

I'd certainly don't want to witness a full-scale nuclear war during my lifetime, as that would be catastrophic. If that happens, the human race will be eliminated for good. We better plan on moving away from Earth (Mars, maybe?) before it's too late. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my opinion

^ I remember a report the other day that an Iranian Navy ship docked in Brazil. They normally won't allow this and probably they will send a threatening warning to Brasil before any ship can dock in thier backyard. It's insulting to these countries when they hear Biden considered them to be their backyard. While NATO can just turn a country into a member of NATO that is so close to Russia and still have a military base in these countries.

What is astonishing though is that they are not offering peace even when it's obvious Ukraine is not winning. The life expectancy of the Ukrainian army in the field is averaging up to 4 hours and they die. They're lucky to live in thier 5th hour in the field according to a report.

Giving up the war in Ukraine will probably be the start of chaos in the China-Taiwan conflict. But this is madness already, China is more advanced in technology. And American companies are in China which is just as devastating to all economies, not just the US economy if they go to war with China.

It would take a decade at most if you ask me. It's just an extrapolation of the past 3-4 decades.

3-4 decades decades ago US economy was still full of industries and the trade deficit was not a thing. Today US economy is debt based and all the industries are in China, as they say "American dream is made in China".
3-4 decades decades ago when any country thought about dumping dollar they would have been bombed out of existence, today US watches impotently while country after country dump the dollar.
3-4 decades decades ago when US navy decided to head towards a country the regime in that country changed automatically. Today US navy has to land all its aircraft, shut down all systems and ask permission when it wants to pass any strategic strait on earth.
3-4 decades decades ago US air-force was advanced and it was feared. Today US aircraft that gets closer to a border is shut down and they read the report impotently from Washington.
3-4 decades decades ago nobody dared look at US funny let alone get close to its borders. Today US airspace is being invaded regularly by flying objects they can not even identify!
3-4 decades decades ago nobody dared have any kind of military or military exercise or military presence or military cooperation with any country that was close to US (remember Cuban missile crisis). Today that is a joke, South America is no longer US backyard.
....

The most possible outcome in my opinion is that United States is going to cease to exist. In its place we are going to see dozens of countries (the previous states) that will be at each other's throats with lots of civil wars.
Of course this could be hastened if Trump or another idiot like him (Musk?) comes along again

It would take years maybe 500 years more. The British Empire still didn't evaporate to vanish forever instead created EU with Euro. I think USA will still be around as long as they won't nuke each other to ashes. And so will the dollar as well.

But base on history every empire decline, there will always be a war to expect. China and Russia has same capabilities that US have today, they can monitor each other through space.  What is certain is that all of them has nukes.

It's going to take decades before the US becomes history. Even as it remains one of the leading superpowers of the world, countries are starting to step away from it by switching to alternative currencies (de-dollarization). American decline is inevitable to say the least.

Once the US is no longer a "force to reckon with", China and Russia would have no limitations in their ambitions to conquer the world. It's likely world democracy will fail once this happens. We're talking about a distant future that we might never experience during our lifetime. The world is full of uncertainty right now, so expect the unexpected. Who knows what would be of Taiwan in the long run? Just my thoughts

So far, there is no reason to think that the US will lose its superpower status in the near future....

The United States is not directly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war.  European countries suffer certain economic losses in the form of an increase in the cost of European products (most of the cost of production is the cost of acquiring hydrocarbons). 

However, the United States bears no such economic cost.  Many talented European scientists, engineers, programmers in such a situation emigrate to the United States. 

This will only strengthen this country economically.

The only way China would be able to freely invade Taiwan is if the US is no longer a superpower. Weakening American influence should make both China and Russia stronger than ever. I think China will carefully plan its moves before "reunifying" itself with Taiwan. The outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war will greatly determine China's ability to proceed as planned. It's predicted the current conflict will end this year, with Ukraine having victory over Russia. If that happens, China will forget about invading Taiwan for a while.

The world is a dangerous place, especially when there are a lot of countries with nuclear weapons in their arsenal. It would be of utmost importance for the US to avoid WW3, by contributing to world peace. Otherwise, it will be the end of humanity for good. Who knows what surprises we'll find in the future? Just my opinion

The Chinese leadership is now very closely watching the course of hostilities in Ukraine and the assistance provided to Ukraine by the international community. I think that what they see, namely the cohesion of other states to provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine, greatly weakens the military fervor of China to attack Taiwan. In addition, China is very dependent on technology and trade with the US and European countries. And they perfectly understand what serious sanctions will follow if they decide to attack Taiwan. All this is now being tested in Russia and in the future it may well be applicable to China in the event of such aggression.

Therefore, China is now very cautious in its statements and actions. The intrigue remains over the emergence of information that China may provide military assistance to Russia with drones and artillery shells. If this happens, it will become obvious that China is preparing to attack Taiwan. Most likely, this is a stuffing of the necessary information, and China wants to use it in its multi-way combinations to obtain certain benefits, and not to help Russia in this losing war.

Short answer no. They will do what they did to Ukraine (stay far and send weapons only).

Things would depend on the exact situation though. For example whether we are talking about a single conflict between North and South Korea or are we talking about a much bigger conflict among many countries including North and South Korean.
History suggests that US is not willing to directly participate in any "real" war with a "real" military. Last time they did that was Vietnam and that has left US regime with bad memories which they don't want repeated.
This is why proxy wars has been US foreign policy for many years.
The only time US gets involved in any direct conflict is if they either have no choice and enter the war as late as possible (eg. WWII) or if they have basically disarmed and destroyed the country they are about to invade (eg. Iraq, Syria, Libya, ...) and they do it with a coalition (not even alone!).

Another thing to consider is that wars these days with any of the countries US has not yet invaded is going to be very different because these countries (eg. North Korea) are capable of hitting US mainland so if US starts a war with any of these countries, it will not be fought in those countries' soil, it will also be fought inside US soil.

Another thing to consider is US economy. It is already too fragile and dependent on other countries like China (East Asia) or on energy prices (West Asia). Any war started in any of these regions would put a lot more stress on US economy and Americans aren't really known for endurance, United states may no longer be United (...country of Texas for example ...).

Well, all these countries existed for centuries and some for thousands of years before US was "manufactured" and they had their own conflicts and they will exist and have conflicts long before US is "shattered" and disappeared.
Sides will change in major conflicts but it isn't really predictable. I don't see Japan changing sides any time soon though specially after Abe was assassinated, the independence dreams died with him (they'll remain a US playground).

That's certainly true, mate. A Taiwan invasion would certainly lead us towards higher prices for electronic devices (especially smartphones and computers). I can see how this would negatively affect Bitcoin in the short term. If you thought the Russo-Ukraine war was coming to an end, then you haven't seen the worst of it yet. There will be more pain ahead for all of us if China decides to invade Taiwan.

I really hope we can get back to some sort of peace treaty between world countries, so everything could go back to normal. It's been a disaster after another disaster ever since the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. The US certainly doesn't want inflation to rise, so a direct conflict with China would be zero to none. We can't predict the future, anyways. Who knows what will happen in just 2 years from now? Just my opinion

The main problem of the Russian military-industrial complex is lies and corruption.
Lodges - about the "second army of the world", about "weapons that have no analogues, about the" backwardness of Western weapons.
And corruption. This is probably a separate chapter in the history of Russia. For you to understand - from the beginning of mobilization, the first 300,000 were barely able to dress, put on shoes, and provide weapons. If you look for photos from the training camps mobilized in Russia, you will be shocked - what they are wearing and what they are armed with! But what to tell if the ensign tells the new arrivals to ask their relatives to buy them .. Now attention: women's pads and tampons - to stop the blood and block wounds! As well as socks and other primitive elements of clothing, because the Russian military-industrial complex cannot produce in the right quantity, with the right quality, the usual form and related elements!
Have you seen their bulletproof vests and helmets? No ? I tell you - helmets are more for paintball than for use in combat conditions. Bulletproof vests - the same level

And medical support is generally a "fairy tale"! I personally saw a medical personal package - it is at the level of the USSR army, about the 70s of the last century! Primitive bandages, cracked tourniquets to stop the blood, the absence of normal painkillers and hemostatic drugs ....

The US of course always wants something bigger in return. But do you really think the US won't defend South Korea from a possible North Korean attack or a Chinese attack on Japan? Japan is even more important to the US than Taiwan. Or do you really imagine South Korea and Japan switching sides toward China? Or who will stop North Korea from attacking South Korea or China from attacking Japan if the US is already shattered and broken?

Maybe India can benefit from a war between the US and China but in the case that the US is slightly losing, I believe it is more beneficial for India, in the long run, to fight a weakened China while the US is still able rather than letting China recover and reign as the world's new leader. Unless India won't risk a winnable war and ask China to cede those contested territories for it to stay neutral. 

Perhaps, in some cases, arms manufacturers are making some effort to ignite the flames of some next conflict and thus increase the demand for their military products.
  Now the biggest war is unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. But the Russian military-industrial complex can hardly be suspected of this. Although, who knows. In any case, even for Putin's closest circle, his decision to attack Ukraine with all his might was a big surprise. And Russia itself, as it turned out, was not prepared for a serious and protracted war. Under the sanctions, Russia's military industry cannot actually work normally. But for the military-industrial complex of the United States and other NATO countries, the war in Ukraine really sharply increased orders for their military products. So, if before this war the United States produced about 20,000 artillery shells per month, then by 2025 they plan to increase their production to 90,000 pieces. This also applies to the military equipment of the NATO countries, which have shown high efficiency in this war. Against the background of the fact that the demand for bad Russian equipment in the world will fall, the military factories of NATO countries are already loaded with applications for many years to come.

This is a country with a deep history, amazing culture, world-class philosophy, and its own mentality. Yes, on the one hand, the Chinese are very purposeful. Bruce Lee, a follower of Chinese philosophy and martial arts, very well said, "I am not afraid of the one who learns 10,000 different blows. I am afraid of the one who learns one blow 10,000 times." This is the essence of the Chinese mentality - they can hone the skill of one solution a huge number of times. Then it turns out perfect ... but then, although it looks crooked and we understand how much effort it cost. The West is more pragmatic - here and now, what is needed, what money is paid for. China tried to copy and through many years of trial and error, they began to produce quite high-quality goods. True .. not with the help of their equipment and technologies, they borrowed all this from the West, and "borrow for free" did not work, the Western world is pragmatic. And they failed to nurture their specialists. And it seems that now China is the leader in the production (quantitative) of mobile phones, computers, laptops, switching equipment and much more ... but .. they are dependent on the high technologies of the West. That is why China is now trying to extremally protect itself from the beginning of the movement of the United States and other countries in relation to China. A movement to deprive China of advanced Western technology. Production is already migrating to neighboring India, the US is making plans to resume its full-fledged production. The countries of Latin America are waiting with open arms for investors and high-tech companies from the USA and other Western countries.
I think that in the next 2-5 years we will observe very interesting processes in the world

US is not protecting anyone now either, they are only being used by US for resources and an inflation export destination. Besides it is impossible for India to get into such a conflict, they've already proven that they prefer to sit on the side watching others fight each other while India expands its strength. As for the rest, it is not possible to say for sure which side they will play for in an actual war, there will be lots of side switches.

What are the chances of this conflict happening?
1. China will not attack Taiwan unless it declares its own independence.
2. Taiwan will not declare its independence.
The only time China will dare to attack Taiwan is if the US military and economy drop big compared. More than 2 decades ago, analysts predicted China to surpass the US economy by the 2020-2030 range. And they seem right. It was also stated that China will surpass the US military by 2050. So unless Taiwan declares independence, China won't attack until 2050 onwards. The US knew its situation and if it cannot win the economic and diplomatic games, it might be the one to trigger a war before the Chinese military is at par or more powerful than the US.

If war broke out. It will become a world war. South Korea, Japan, Australia, and probably India too knew that if the US lost the war, there won't be any buffers or protection for them against China. So this is highly to become a world war and the world economy will be in the worst scenario, especially for countries that are located near and in between these countries. And most likely that a losing side might resort to using nukes to change the tempo of the war.   

Your point is absolutely right, and that is what is happening in Russia and Ukraine. Many old weapons from the Soviet era were used in the early stages of the war and then in a show of power of a series of new generation weapons. The Ukrainian battlefield is no different from a place to use old weapons and test new types of combat weapons. I remember when the war started, American military contractors received dozens of contracts to buy weapons from allied countries, and brought them billions of dollars in profits.

Taiwan is a major microchip manufacturer. The global microchip shortage will increase, due to such war. I guess that the global electronics industry will suffer losses, but I'm sure that the global economy can adapt and solve this issue. Perhaps the USA and China might be facing some economic difficulties and this might help for boosting the European economy, reducing the Chinese import to Europe and increasing the European export to both USA and China. Nobody knows what will happen.
The strategists at Washington and Beijing must be calculating the potential costs and benefits of such conflict, and they probably know whether or not it's worth it for the USA and China to engage in such war.

Intelligence personnel always have to plan out every worst case scenario so I am not surprised to hear these kind of predictions. That's why they are called "worst case scenarios" in the first place.


Engineering talent is hard to come by in China for some reason. Particularly the kind of physics knowledge which is required to work with lithography and microchips in the first place.

A four-star general predicted that a war between the US and China over Taiwan will take place by 2025. You can read all about it here: https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war-2025/

Predictions are predictions, so either the aforementioned war will happen or everything will remain as is. I seriously don't think this will ever materialize, as that would cause a huge blow to the world's leading economies. It would be much worse than the current Russo-Ukraine crisis.

This could only be a drama show by the Chinese government in order to try to spread fear among people living in Taiwan. The likely outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war would be a full-blown victory for Ukraine, so China will think twice before deciding to proceed with its invasion of Taiwan in the future. Let's hope the current crisis will be all over before 2024 gets here. Just my thoughts

Yes, China does not have its own lithographic equipment for the production of microcircuits. 

In my opinion, the main problem of the Chinese is the lack of people with creative thinking.  The Chinese are traditionalists and collectivists. 

In China, there are numerous Buddhist monasteries in which amazed tourists are shown the footprints of wushu (kung fu) fighters carved into stone tiles.  This is a consequence of thousands of years of practicing the same sports exercises. 

But in order to become an excellent engineer, there is little self-discipline and perseverance. 

Very great creative abilities are needed, which do not develop in a society based on the ideals of traditionalism and collectivism.

I'm sorry, but here you are mistaken, now I will explain.

I'll start with the simplest - reverse engineering I used to live in the USSR. And the USSR, being not the most technologically backward country, for some reason did not know how to make their own microcircuits. No, the production of microcircuits itself was, and even had "its own" equipment for this. But it was not possible to develop schematics and logic. Well, or it didn’t work out very well. And the USSR, until the 90s of the last century, actually copied Western chips through reverse engineering. Moreover, do not believe it, but in a purely mechanical way Layer-by-layer disassembly of the chip, using mechanical means for "grinding layers". So, it was this reverse engineering technology that prevented the USSR from continuing to steal Western technologies after the 90s - the manufacturing process became so "thinner" that "grinding with a grinding wheel" was no longer possible This is about reverse engineering, how difficult it can be.

Now back to China. See what's the problem with China. Yes, they make a lot of electronics, they produce a huge number of chips, but !!!
BUT. For the production of precisely high-quality, high-performance chips, several components are needed:
1. Specialists and laboratories for the development of circuitry, layout and logic of the chip itself. China has them, but they are not of a high enough level. At the level of microcontrollers for household appliances - yes they can. At the processor level, for example, Intel 8th generation is no longer there. There is no education, no teachers, only basic theoretical, incomplete knowledge.
2. The production of chips for processors is a separate, huge industry. This is not just filled with sand in a bucket, melted, poured, applied a UV mask and you're done! No, this is a high-tech production, with very complex technologies from the preparation of raw materials to the very process of growing a crystal suitable for the production of chips with a high element density.
3. Lithographic equipment for the final stage of chip manufacturing. This equipment is generally produced by one company in the world. And she, too, joins the sanctions against China. And the equipment in the event of a "capture" will simply be turned off or errors will be introduced into the technical process.

Of all 3 points, China does not have its own. And it won't, because the United States and its partners will not give it. And the release of simple chips - yes, this is not uncommon, many companies produce, but there is no uniqueness in them either.

By the way, one more example. For example, Iran or Russia, for the production of the same drones, to carry out terrorist attacks, do not need the most complex chips. These are not microprocessors, these are controllers, etc. , much technologically simpler products .. But - they cannot produce them! Even simple chips for example for GPS navigation! They buy them on Aliexpress, or smuggled in other countries. I know that some of them have control controllers made from ... washing machines, which in Russia also do not produce their own, but only make SKD assembly of well-known brands.

I'm not sure if it is a typo or there is a mistake here. When majority of countries are setting negative economy growth and are battling inflation and recession, China is experiencing economic growth!
For example US expects at best case scenario a 0.3% GDP growth, Germany and UK had -0.6%, etc. while China is already having 5%+. It is not just GDP, the export amounts are enormous and all their destinations (like US) are having increasing amount of trade deficit each year.
If anything the only economy in the whole world that is not-sinking is China's!

The world is moving in a direction that being neutral costs more than choosing a side which is why sooner or later all countries will have to choose one of the handful of big players or superpowers to play by their side. I dare say US and China are both evil with different approaches though.

Yes, but I can only speak from here, I mean the last government play it's cards very well. The Duterte administration, was somewhat in the middle as far as it's policy on US and China is. But as we have a new government lead by the former dictator son's, and his name namesake, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, it's was a total shift in the policy against the Chinese.


True, but probably with the situation right now? government around neighboring South East Asia might have to choose between the lesser of two evil and  that could mean they are in the side of United States.

By who, if you don't mind sharing?

Hopefully it's a credible source and not the usual peanut gallery of "doomsayers" whose predictions are almost always wrong.  


That only applies when the aggressor's military is not full of corruption.

Ukraine is handing Russia's ass to them right now not because of NATO supplies (the first of which came many, many days after when everyone expected Russia to be finished defeating Ukraine) but because Russia's army is rotten and nobody does what they're supposed to do.

So they lose a lot of equipment, men, etc.

Almost every other military in the world (including China) has a much better disciplined army than Russia's.


It's always been like that with arms races, otherwise one of the countries will get cocky and invade other countries on the basis on having more advanced weapons.


They have machines to make 00's era chips, but everything after that is mostly prototypes not being produced commercially.

The microchip industry is heavily interconnected across different countries (and this is only the chips themselves - consumer electronics manufacturing is not counted here), and there are companies in Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, US, as well as Taiwan making parts of the equipment necessary to mass-produce chips. It's a huge effort to clone all of that so I am not surprised to hear that China is having difficulties making modern chip-producing machines (without considering the effects of the export bans by the West).

There's so much money being wasted on military equipment, when it could've been distributed to other areas of domestic need. I guess countries became so worried about their border security after what happened between Russia and Ukraine. I'm not saying it's bad to expand military equipment and personnel. What I'm saying is that putting all of the governments' funds solely for military use is a bad idea.

China is going to need help from other countries, especially now when its economy is sinking. It wouldn't want to invade Taiwan when Russia was severely sanctioned from major countries worldwide. Russia was essentially cut off from the global economic system, so it should feel more pain further down the road. I don't think China will want this, as it will be the end of it as we know it. This could all be a rumor that will never become a reality. I'd expect economic ties between the US and China to strengthen after the global crisis caused by Russia is over. No one wants a full-scale nuclear war, as that would mark the end of humanity for good. China knows it, the US knows it, as well as other nuclear superpowers like Russia and North Korea. With peace around the world, humanity can prosper once more. Just my thoughts

Russia's war against Ukraine should generally end this year with a victory for Ukraine. This will indeed serve as a powerful deterrent for China, because they saw that the world does not tolerate aggression and that less militarily strong states are capable of defeating the aggressor if the world unites and provides all possible assistance to the victim of aggression. Of course, the Chinese government would like Russia to take over Ukraine. Then against this background, China would have had a free hand with respect to Taiwan. But this will not happen thanks to the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their Armed Forces.

Agree. China, being a superpower on the one hand, has a real problem - its huge (the second economy in the world) is built mostly on the export of "consumer goods", and all competitive, high-tech products of China are 100% dependent on Western technologies, and in first of all from the USA. Those. The Chinese economy is a symbiotic of the US and the Western world. The Chinese economy can, of course, produce a huge amount of goods, but they will be such goods as Chinese goods were in the 70s and 90s of the last century. Simple, cheap and not very high quality. It doesn't seem to be bad either. BUT. They will not be able to sell such goods to the West, but only to third world countries or economically backward countries, where purchasing power is low. This means that they will not receive the CURRENCY for which they can purchase technologies. And this means the position of an appendage of the world. And there will be no bipolar world with the US and China. That is why China does not take idiotic, abrupt steps, such as Russia. I hope that the example of the defeat of Russia and the collapse of Russia into several states will greatly cool the ardor of the "hot guys in Beijing."
At the same time, I will add - I understand that China, for some reason, considers Taiwan "historically its territory" (although the issue is really debatable). And he wants to show everyone his ambitions and positions in the region. But the military option for China will also be extremely bad. I believe that an acceptable option for resolving the conflict is an agreement (provided that it will Satisfy Taiwan) on the nominal accession of Taiwan, but in the status of an autonomous republic, with its own parliament, government, army and financial system.
There is a great example - Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in its composition, which is now temporarily annexed by an old terrorist. Until 2014, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea had its own parliament, its own government, had mutually beneficial relations with all regions of Ukraine, and Ukraine represented its interests in the world. with the direct participation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. There were no problems and conflicts, and everyone remained in their own interests.

There are far too many gun and weapons manufacturers around and most countries, in the bid to “protect” themselves from external aggression come up with new creative innovations that would produce deadly and destructive weaponry.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there would always be conflict in this world. And gun and weapons manufacturers would continue to sell their wares.
There are a lot of conflicts presently going on. Some, not worth the media attention. And I’m willing to bet weapon manufacturers are indirectly stoking the flames of conflicts and violence.

These are all very good and comprehensible points and the contradiction of China's behavior remains when they are threatening with war against Taiwan as I explained here. The speed at which they are buying up and building new infrastructure al around the world is astonishing, but a clear indicator that it is indeed aiming at increasing their soft power around the globe. This is why an attack at this point in time would make no sense. However, if they have increased their soft power due to a dominant control of global economic infrastructure, they are also more immune against sanctions.

I don't know what Xi Jinpings plans are and whether he thinks he is going to live and reign for another 30 years, but I do believe that guys like him do not only want to go down into the books of history as someone who build his country into an economic superpower. All this military spending is a sign to me that he is dreaming of pulling the trigger one day against Taiwan.

I am wondering about something else when we talk about the dominant role of Taiwan in the microchip market. I know that it is the case now, but doesn't China basically have the resources to build a competitive microchip industry? They have been reverse engineering for decades now. Why wouldn't they be able to copy large scale microchip manufacturers? I haven't been digging into this yet in detail, but as far as I know China owns the base resources for that technology or am I wrong here?

If I understand this article correctly, the US and its allies can only slow down China in the competition for the best and fastest semiconductor manufacturers (and China is way behind), but it is a question of time until China can catch up. The base resources they need are also available in Russia. There we are again that China perhaps want to import rare earth metals and Russia in exchange secures contracts for long-term deliveries of semi-conductor technology.

Damn, the world is complex... but discussions like these help understanding it a little better step by step.

In fact, there are many opportunities for development in the modern world, there are many scenarios for avoiding confrontation with other countries.  

China, for example, is very aggressively developing Africa.  However, he is not fighting in Africa.  China uses the policy of "soft power".  Chinese companies lend to local companies at high interest rates.  For non-payment of debts, the Chinese take shares of key African companies.

In today's world, war is a very bad way to solve economic problems.  

I love watching the Chinese feature film "Battle of the Red Rock" very much.  The Chinese in the army, in addition to military leaders, had the position of Strategist.  

The Chinese Strategist was engaged in the development of various military techniques that helped to achieve victory over the enemy.  

Since ancient times, the Chinese have been accustomed to achieve success with cunning, not just brute force.

Just two simple questions, clarifications
1. Comparing territorial integrity is correct. And within the framework of this concept, the fact that for some short time Ukraine and Taiwan were part of other entities does not give any right to these entities to consider these territories as their own. Therefore, China is trying to be "good" on both sides, but on the other hand, it is promoting the narrative "Taiwan is the territory of the PRC", which is not true. And I will repeat again. For China, Taiwan is an opportunity to "kill two birds with one stone." Show your "greatness" and get something without which the Chinese economy will slide back 40 years, and turn into a manufacturer of cheap, low-quality consumer goods. These are technologies. The US is now withdrawing technology from China, and is limiting the ability to teach modern technology in the future. And Taiwan is the world leader in the production of microchips. The microprocessor market itself is actually in the hands of Taiwan. Do you think China will recognize the sovereignty and independence of Taiwan?

2. China's plan, very "thin". It must be understood that the loss of Russia, for China, is a very bad "bell", and now the situation is heading towards this. That is why China will try to "stop the war" by saving Russia, saving it from losing and collapsing, as was the case with the USSR. But the world is well aware that the war against terrorists cannot be stopped, it can either be won or lost. Therefore, the Chinese proposal will certainly be listened to, but there will be no result. Although Russia will hysteria and demand a "decision from China", and will even promise to fulfill it. But the whole world already knows - a word or a promise from Russia is worth nothing, it's an empty phrase ....

That's a really strange situation not just with Philippines but with multiple Chinese neighbors specially when you look at the world map and see that all the neighbors have been slowly choosing a pro-US policy. Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea are the main ones that are challenging China in East and South China sea for US!

I could understand competition with China and resistance against Chinese influence and growth but to go full anti-China and becoming friendly with US that we all know will abuse all these countries for their own benefit and at their cost makes no sense.

The question is whether the big problem for China is internal tension or simply the ambitions of a regional leader and the second pole of the new world. If about the bipolar world, where these poles are the USA and China, then China has already openly declared, deleting Russia from the world map of leaders.
But China has internal tensions, this is precisely the problem that can only be solved through a "small victorious war." At the same time, it is possible that it will go into the format “we are at war with the whole world, we need to unite, whoever is against the existing government is a traitor to China!”, as Russia is now trying to “slip” this narrative on its biomass, losing to Ukraine on the fronts.
And in this vein, China needs, if not a victory, then not a loss for Russia, and a weakening of international pressure on the aggressor. Otherwise, China will also become a pariah country, buried under international sanctions. if the EU economy was really dependent on Russian energy resources, then there is no such dependence on the Chinese market. Other countries can also produce mass goods of acceptable quality, but China does not produce critical goods, for example for the EU.
There is information that China did begin to provide some military assistance to Russia. Whether this is true or not, we will find out soon enough. I still hope that China does not want to soil itself in the crimes committed by Russia ...

They have been in trade wars for years now and obviously, it has an effect on both countries. But if they started a full scale war then everyone will be affected, specially countries in the South East Asia (specially I live in Philippines wherein our government are still undecided, but it looks like the newly government will be in the US side), they will be torn apart.

For the global economy, it might hit harder as well, it will disrupt the world economy and it's hard to recovery if the war lasted for years.

but we will all know which sides are countries are going to take here.

I can only agree with what you have said but you could say the very same thing about Russia as well. They could have instead used their vast amounts of resources and expanded their economy and create wealth and live in prosperity. But now they don't because there is a one-man-show going on that makes no sense for anyone who is thinking rationally.

Xi Jinping is the same kind of guy. From an economic point of view an invasion of Taiwan would make no sense, but does that mean they won't invade Taiwan? If Xi Jinping gives the go, it is going to happen.

One major issue I have with all of this is that we as a global society already forego potential wealth by just pumping excessive amounts of money into military. Usually nobody really noticed it in their everyday lives, but this is going to change tremendously when the whole world starts to take away significant amounts of money from other causes and instead wastes it on military equipment. I just don't see how we can put the arms race to an end anytime soon. Even if Russia stops its aggression tomorrow, every country in Europe will still increase their military spendings by a lot. Finland is now building some sort of defend walls and I am sad to say that it makes sense to me. Nobody is interested getting hit by a surprise attack. 

It is clear that such a conflict would have significant and far-reaching consequences, and efforts should be made to prevent such a scenario from occurring.
In terms of the long-term impact on the US, a conflict with China could weaken the US economically, particularly if it results in significant damage to US infrastructure, property, and businesses. However, it could also strengthen the US politically, as a successful defense of Taiwan could enhance the US's standing as a global superpower and reaffirm its commitment to its allies and democratic values.

In my opinion, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely. 

China is known for its prudent and pragmatic foreign policy.  At the same time, it must be recognized that China's desire to annex Taiwan is very strong.... 

Taiwan has made great strides in the field of microelectronics.  In fact, it is a recognized leader in the production of the most innovative microcircuits.  At the same time, in the context of the end of world globalization, Chinese companies (for example, Huawei) were cut off from the supply of these products they need. 

The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that microcircuits are essentially dual-use products - they are used both in the military and in the civilian industry. 

At the same time, China is closely following the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. 

The current situation on the military scene further urges him to be careful and avoid political adventures involving the invasion of Taiwan and a direct clash with US military power.

I'm not praying for a war to escalate between the US and China and Taiwan respectively, but should such happen, I think the US would be bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to ensure they protect the taiwanese from a possible invasion by the Chinese.
 China and the US have been long standing economic trade partners but in the year 2020, they (China) reneged on that treaty and the deal has gone south, I strongly believe the US govt would stand by Taiwan should hell break loose.

I understand you You so want to remove the status of a rogue country, a terrorist country and a sponsor of terrorism from Iran that you decided to attribute Iranian "merits" to the United States
No matter how pleasant it may be for you, but the countries of terrorists, among those listed by you, are not. But Iran, Russia, North Korea and similar international garbage - this is the basis of international terrorism. This has been proven by decades of global crimes committed by these criminal countries. And these are FACTS, unlike your fantasies. Stop lying and start changing the world from your country, or rather from your government, which dragged the once beautiful free country of Iran into the shackles of the Middle Ages, alienation from the world, obtaining the status of a rogue terrorist country. Believe me - by stopping the support of the bastard, anti-human regimes, and covering up their crimes, you will do better for yourself and your people. Now it is your people who are suffering because of the propagandists of terrorism masquerading as "the fight against US hegemony". And other nations that you kill almost directly - for example, supplying the Kremlin terrorists with weapons that they use against the civilian population of other countries.

China needs the world's support to help sustain its economy. Otherwise, it will be the end of its "empire" for good. For what I know, this could all be drama between the world's biggest superpowers (China and the US). It's not about words, but rather the actions they take in real life. And so far, there's no indication there will be a conflict between the two countries over Taiwan anytime soon.

Depending on how the Russo-Ukraine war ends, China will decide whenever to proceed with its ambitions of invading Taiwan or leave everything as is. For the sake of the entire planet, it's best for China to remain in peace with both Taiwan and the US. Otherwise, WW3 will go full speed ahead. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my opinion

I find it hard to assess whether time is running in favor of China or not. In the end China is highly dependent on a well functioning global economy, but if every country is now investing heavily in military equipment and defense, there is less money to be spent on Chinese products as well.

Today at the security conference in Munich China emphasized that territorial integrity is to be respected by everyone in the world, but that was also implying that Taiwan actually is a part of China and they would only take back what belongs to them anyway. They will now also start a peace initiative regarding Russia and Ukraine, but they haven't really specified what that is going to look like. It didn't sound very convincing and the US made clear that they have their doubts. As far as I know it was quite a heated debate between Chinese representatives and US representatives.

There are big economic interests between the USA and China, so the prospects of a full blown war are very low. I think China will wait until the end Russo-Ukraine war, to make a move. If Ukraine wins, then China will think twice before deciding to invade Taiwan. But if Ukraine loses, then it's likely China will proceed as planned. It seems that Ukraine is winning, so don't count on the US entering a conflict with China over Taiwan anytime soon.

Let's hope things will settle down by 2024, so the world can get back to the way it was. Peace, prosperity, and health to all of humanity. Otherwise, it'll be the end for good. Who knows what the future holds for all of us? Just my thoughts

Indeed, China has its problems. But that's also true to the US and the rest of the world's most powerful countries. The difference with China, however, is that they have a more controlled politics and populace. Also, I don't see the Chinese people as truly free. Well, many of them now have the money, could travel the world, immerse in different cultures, and so on, but what I usually notice even among these sophisticated and cosmopolitan Chinese is that they're still robot-like. It seems they all have chips in their brain.

China is largely watching but they're also extending significant help to their guinea pig. They definitely want this guinea pig to be successful. But they probably didn't share its poor decision-making and strategies and rush approach. While they want it to be victorious, they're probably open for its failure as they recognize its recklessness.

What I agree with in the first place is that China is smart, and in a good way cunning. But China has its own problems that I wrote about. They are now - economic, and are ready to change into socio-economic ones in the future, with a massive increase in public discontent. But it must be taken into account that modern China is not the China of the middle of the 20th century, when the remnants of feudalism still remained in the mentality. now the Chinese people are more free, and they can start a real rebellion. And this is equal to the death of power. Well, plus a guaranteed deterioration in the economy due to cutting off Chinese industry from Western technologies. And this already removes China's existing advantages in the world market, where China supplies a huge amount of products with a low price and acceptable quality. After the departure of technology, the degradation of the economy will begin. Namely, Taiwan will allow to "solve" a lot of problems:
- possession of almost monopoly production of critical products in the world market
- problem solving with technology
- "a small victorious war against the imperialists" - will increase the rating of the CCP.
But China does not rush to thoughtlessly start a war, it has chosen "guinea pigs" in the form of Russia, and is watching ... I hope that even so the Chinese leadership will be wiser than Putin's sadistic fanatic. For China, the path of a peaceful alliance with Taiwan and mutually beneficial symbiosis with the West is the path to survival.

It is not all rumors though. It depends on how you define war/conflict. A direct armed conflict is highly unlikely but the "war" is already happening in the world, some even refer to it as world war 3.

On one side US is constantly arming terrorist groups in Asia in both West Asia and East Asia. They are also arming multiple small countries around China so that they can act as US proxy (including Taiwan, Philippines and Japan). They are constantly threatening security and trade routes to damage Chinese economy and exports. Specially if you look at the countries that are on route of the Chinese "Belt and Road Initiative" you see the chaos US has been causing there.

On the other side China is sanctioning United States like the recent sanctions on multiple US industries. They are waging their own Opium War by mass exporting fentanyl to US and US neighbors that are flooding US with highly addictive drugs. They regularly invade US airspace and gather massive amount of intelligence on highly classified facilities.

And a lot more.

I agree, although I don't think China needed to invent another way. China's approach has always been multi-pronged. While they are sending warships in contested territories, directly harrassing another country's navies, conducting war exercises near borders, and others, they also employ other strategies. They strongly support opposition parties. They offer abundant loans and grants and aids. They also have rich investors ready to pour billions in foreign ventures. They also reach out offering cooperation, shared explorations, and other partnership deals. This bully knows better; they know direct annexation through arms isn't the only way.

And why are you so sure about that?

Here on the forum, we have zillion threads about how profitable is to invest in crypto/gold/real estate/oil/etc... but I guess that nothing beats investing in weapons! But what level do you need to be for that?

My point is simple! Too many weapons around... and demand for new and better ones is constantly increasing! But the old must be spent somewhere, and the new must be shown how it works, it will get a better price if it's tested in a real battle! So it's not a question will it happen, it's a question of where will it happen and when! And how big it can be... do you even know how many active conflicts there are around the world?

We want peace, but (globally) we produce/sell/buy more weapons than ever before. It's a bit contradictory from my point of view.

No one want that to happen even the US would not want China to go for war with Taiwan. Taiwan is like a micro country to China since China had been claiming Taiwan to be part of the territory. This is going to be a big war especially for countries that has been depending on china for raw materials. The US will not be able to easily lay strict sanctions on China because US companies highly depend on China for raw materials and other things. If this war start mnay few years coming. The Americans soldiers may not be able to defeat china since it's like the China soldiers are developing crazy ammonition without the media knowing.

First, it is useful to point out that the hypothesis of a war between the United States and China is very weak. This will not happen, at least in the medium term.
Secondly, there is actually a war between the two countries and Taiwan is the land of that war. We must forget war in its traditional sense. And the war between China and America has dysfunctional aspects, a strategic and economic war.
Third, if a military confrontation takes place between them on the land of Taiwan, this will harm the global economy as a whole, but China will certainly be the first to be affected, and America may not be the last of course.

First of all I don't see such a thing happening anytime soon not in 2025 for sure. Also seen from US reaction in the Ukraine Invasion I am skeptical whether they will even go for a full fledged war in that scenario too. But let's say if it does happen obviously it will lead to a dark future. China has lot of trade routes to the rest of the world and delivers a lots of things in various countries. Such a war would mean great shortages of such things. But I am sure some other countries like India would benefit a lot from such a war as they can do what US did in world wars.

How to put this? May be the war rumors is actually a rumor to keep things tidy and neat for the years to come. Most of the USA's import is coming from China and most of the world's leading brands are relying on China for their virtually unlimited workforce. How cheap other countries can go when they have to finish the work? There are multi national companies which already have biggest conglomerates with the US base and China base together. They definitely have bigger commercial relationships rather than political one's. The war can broke out for any dumb reason and that's not the point here. But USA knows very well they have more than 50% reliance on the China's assets which includes raw materials as well.

I might be speaking in terms of commercial aspects here but let us not forget, world revolves around the money and money only trades when you have real stuff to sell.

Whenever brands like Tesla, Apple, Microsoft tried to move their giant manufacturing faculties elsewhere they were first slammed by various rules and regulations. However, china is country with only one goal and thats to produce and get those dollar funds in their treasury. The dominance is huge.

It's like both the ends are tieing the knot and no one wants to let go. War? Pretty sure its gonna take while.

Things are getting scary and out of hand in United States as it is. The most recent shitshow is in Ohio which is like one of those end of the world scenarios with the chemicals spreading slowly infecting and killing everyone on its path. Livestock and wildlife is already perishing and nobody is giving any answer to why the train crashed in first place! Or do anything about it...

I really hope my country will be done with Russia by that point, and if Russia loses against Ukraine, it can be a great deterrent for China because that can show that a smaller and objectively weaker country (in terms of initial personnel, forces, military rankings, economies) can defeat a bigger one, and that there are enough countries in the contemporary world that are strongly against military invasions and are willing to help the one defending oneself. China isn't stupid, and while they might want to get Taiwan back, they also don't want to lose to Taiwan and lose any grip on the world over a small part of land. If the China-Taiwan war occurs, I think it will be a bigger stress factor for the world economy than Russia vs Ukraine because of stronger economies directly involved and the worldwide impact of both China as a leading manufacturer of so many things and Taiwan's importance for technological progress.

Exactly.  China's moves are wise, they quietly monitor and support Russia in the Ukraine conflict, but watch out for the US and West's reaction and limit tough moves towards the West.  In other words, the situation may change when Russia is dependent on China (some important electronic components, weapons, semiconductor chip industry ..).  This makes the motivation / reason for the scenario of a violent conflict with Taiwan to be realized - the global supply of semiconductor and electronic chips has more than 60% of the export market share from Taiwan.  Russia has also calculated clear options when diversifying its allies and economy with Turkey, Iran, the Middle East.  No matter how the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, I think its influence and impact will last a long time.  The US and China will be the biggest beneficiaries.  Anyway, China still has another backup scenario of blockade and strangulation instead of direct military conflict like Russia did.  China is still beneficial party, they are in no hurry and are fully proactive towards Taiwan to achieve the most favorable situation.

This is one of the reasons why the West, led by the United States, is helping Ukraine in countering the terrorist attack from Russia. China is using Russia as guinea pigs. He looks at how the West will react to the annexation of foreign territories, looks at how the West will react to a terrorist attack, how the world will resist this evil. Why ? Because China planned to play exactly the same scenario with respect to Taiwan - a fake reason to "unite one people", "historical Chinese lands", "saving the Chinese population from the clutches of the wild west", "saving historical values and way of life".
China was well aware of Russia's plans for 2022.
And so China chose the passive side for a reason. China wanted to observe the development of the situation on the "guinea pig" in the form of Russia, without unnecessary risks, in order to understand how acceptable such a path would be for China. Apparently, the Kremlin agreed on this issue with the "big brother". But as always, he deceived, having built his plans, describing himself on his fake greatness and the fake power of his army.
The result for China was not very positive - the whole adequate world united against Russia and began to help Ukraine. For China, this is a bad "bell". Now China needs to invent another way, because. a full-fledged confrontation with the West will lead to very negative consequences for China itself, in the event of the same stupid, direct aggression against Taiwan.

After seeing the horrible effects of Ukraine Russia conflict (despite the fact that my country was not part of that conflict), I strongly believe that there should be no more full scale war as that will bring more disaster to this world. It is imperative to mention that war these days doesn't effect only the countries fighting rather it has global impact. Counties are punished for siding or not siding with big powers. Both US and China are big powers they both must act wisely.

Well the West has to support their own proxy in a war they started! If they did anything else you should have been surprised. That is exactly what they would do with Taiwan too, they will give them weapons to fight China as a proxy and die for the Western warmongers.

I do not expect the United States of America to consider waging an all-out war against China. This is unlikely for the time being at least, but yes, economic war has existed for many years.

Perhaps the scenario is worse for the United States in the event that China and Russia unite together to form a military economic power in the face of the United States, then the world could be on the brink of an abyss, because the occurrence of such a war will turn into a third world war and could eventually turn into an all-out nuclear war portends the destruction of the world.

No one wishes such a scenario to occur, of course, but this possibility remains present, given that the economic war can eventually turn into a military war.

It could weaken some sectors but it will strengthen the US businesses that are into arms manufacturing (the biggest companies are from the US right?).

The US is playing it smart not allowing wars to reach its shores by encircling China (having bases in China's neighboring countries - EDCA). It's like what they (US/NATO) have done in surrounding Russia. In case China losses its patience with what it perceives as US aggression, it is the Asian countries that will be severely affected. The US will definitely feel the effect of the war but it can recover faster.

I don't see it coming, not in 2025, not in the next decade or two. But the situation in Ukraine will probably give us an idea. If Ukraine succumbed to the Russian invasion, it will surely be a cue for China to invade Taiwan. If the US and Europe and their allies failed to stop Russia from annexing Ukraine, the more they can't stop a more powerful country from annexing a tiny island nation.

So, in a way, the fate of US-China-Taiwan conflict will be determined by the fate of Ukraine's battle for survival against a weaker bully. China, the stronger bully, is just observing. The US, which is now facing financial troubles within, and its allies will have to give as much as possible for Ukraine to come out victorious. Otherwise, another bully will be joining in causing much bigger problems.

Of course we hope that the conflict between China and Taiwan will not happen again, China has great economic power for the world, and Taiwan certainly has US and European allies so that if there is a conflict it will have a big impact on the world economy, but I'm sure the conflict will never be serious until war, and maybe just intimidation or war statements from China and Taiwan.

Nobody really knows how much Xi Jinping actually knew about Russia's plans to invade the Ukraine. Since Putin and Xi Jinping met or talked right before the invasion happened, it is likely that he knew about this plan or at least received some obvious hints from Putin. It makes a lot of sense that Xi Jinping was very interested in seeing how the Western world would react to the invasion.

It is good to see that the West now supports the Ukraine the way they support them, but who knows what would have happened if the West decided to not support the Ukraine. Do you think that could have been an additional incentive for Xi Jinping to take action against Taiwan as well? Now that the support for Ukraine is constantly growing stronger and we are probably even going to see fighting jets being delivered, Xi Jinping is probably going to at least think twice before he decides to invade Taiwan. I think there is no doubt now that the US is going to stick to their word and protect Taiwan as well.

I don't think it's in both the US and China's best interests to start a war. It would cause a major blow to the global economy. China's economy has been severely affected because of the pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine war, so I'd expect it to delay its plans to invade Taiwan by a few more years. But if it does happen by 2025 as predicted, then all hell will break loose. The Chinese spying satellite tells us China has ambitions to conquer the world. It is analyzing each country's weaknesses to make a move in the future. Maybe the "New World Order" is upon us (with China and Russia ruling the world)?

I've seen the global situation worsen ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. One catastrophe after the other is happening before our every eyes. First it was COVID-19, then the Russo-Ukraine war, and now a possible conflict between the world's leading superpowers. I hope things go back to normal soon, but it seems we're heading into a new reality. I'd be surprised if the US no longer exists in the future due to the accelerating rate of American decline. Who knows what lies ahead for the rest of hunanity? Just my opinion

All wars generally weaken the economy depending on the severity, threat to national security or global stability, and the investment the U.S. makes on fighting the war monetary wise (of course lives are not expendable).

The issue that the U.S. has is they rely on Taiwanese chip production for many of their consumer electronics, and that fact makes Taiwan an attractive target for invasion. Should China gain control of these chips, they U.S. will be even more beholden to China than they already are. Also keep in mind many drugs are manufactured in China. Should a war breakout, who will be supplying the U.S. with pharmaceuticals?

A possible war between the US and China over Taiwan will not be this year. The decision on the war on the part of China will be made taking into account the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukraine wins this war, as it is almost certain, then other potential aggressors, such as China, will have to reduce their military fervor.

  Now both the United States and China are studying the tactics and strategy of waging war between Ukraine and Russia, and especially the use by Ukraine of advanced, including NATO military technologies. If earlier China could count on a large number of its armed forces, then the current war in Ukraine has shown that this is not the most decisive factor, and China is now very dependent on the United States and Europe in matters of microcircuits and nanotechnologies. Experts predict that China will not be able to win the war with the United States.
As for the economic side of this possible war, the material damage will, of course, be colossal and will hit the economies of all countries of the world.

Gaming and GPUs do not matter much because it's the ARM microprocessors that are placed in phones and tablets where the real business comes from, because these always want to use the latest fabrications.

In this regard, TSMC is not the only such supplier, because there's also Intel and Samsung (though only Samsung really makes mobile chips).

I'd be more worried about the company that manufactures the machines that make the chips - ASML - a company heavily dependent on US parts but has a monopoly, causing all 3 chipmakers to be dependent on them.

it is possible and necessary to talk about such a conflict, since its probability is not zero.
To begin with, let's look at the reasons for the possible causes of this potential conflict?
If you dig history, then China's claims to "ownership" dissolve, because. if China takes the starting point when the PRC transferred the Republic of China (yes, that's what it is called, but the word China is not a synonym for the PRC) under external control (but was not included in the PRC), then the question arises - why consider this date as a starting point? In a word, delving into history is useless. But there is another side of the coin. These are China's problems. There are many of them - from an unstable economy, internal tensions, and potential degradation of the export-oriented, and technologically dependent on the West, economy. And to keep a semi-totalitarian state, you need to show a "beautiful picture." But it's difficult .. At least by the fact that after some "vybryki" China, the United States abruptly began to curtail projects where China is supplied with American high technology. Yes, it will look a little funny, but China without Western technology is again an agrarian China of the mid-20th century! Therefore, one of China's directions is to seize high technologies, and even more so in such a sector as microprocessor solutions. Well, in order to "kill two birds with one stone" - to show that Beijing is a powerful country, whose opinion and whose desires in the region are LAW. Taiwan fits this role PERFECTLY. But there are nuances
1. The people of Taiwan categorically do not want to become a province of China and bring them an invaluable gift in the form of their microprocessor segment.
2. The independence of Taiwan is supported by the United States and many other strong Western countries.
3. So-called. Russia's "special operation" to seize Ukraine "by right of the strong" failed, and China saw that the world "thanks" to Russia united against such threats. China did not just choose a passive role in today's terrorist war of Russia against Ukraine - for it, the victory of Russia would become a PRECEDENT, and the whole world would swallow the fact that this can be done. But it didn't work out. The world has shown that such terrorist attacks will be stopped.
4. China understands that in case of aggression against Taiwan, sanctions similar to those against Russia will be applied to it.
5. But the Chinese government has almost no alternative to divert the attention of more than 1 billion Chinese from pressing issues, except for a military conflict with Taiwan, which will clearly escalate into a larger one.

In any case, even if China succeeds, China will not get what it wants. He will definitely not receive technology (during the hostilities, this will all be destroyed). China will probably get islands with completely destroyed infrastructure, without a population (I'm sure most of the productive population will leave for the nearest countries / USA). China will receive sanctions and the label of a pariah, along with Russia, North Korea, Iran and a couple of other inadequate countries.
Victory ? Unless it's a Pyrrhic victory...

An alternative option is an agreement on the entry of Taiwan, as an Autonomous Republic, into the PRC, with broad autonomy and guaranteed security, with external control over the implementation of the agreements. To me, this is the most logical way.

It all really depends on which path China chooses...

I don't think that any large scale conflict like a China-US war over Taiwan is going to have any positive economic impacts. The world economy is in a fragile state after the covid lockdowns and the sanctions on Russia of the Ukraine war. In my opinion, any additional negative shocks is going to send us into recession. But even the worst economic crisis is not going to be the end of the world. What we have learned from all the major economic crisis in the past there will come a recovery, the economy moves in cycles and will rebound eventually. Which doesn't mean that it's going to painful and a lot of hardship. I think that all the other big countries will be heavily affected by the China-US war and also suffering. The effects in the long run could be positive for the US if they make the right decisions. Bring back home more production facilities could be one way to be less dependent on China in the future. 

If seen yes, this conflict will have a significant impact on the economy and financial system of each country involved. But are these three countries willing to risk their economies just for the sake of power? That doesn't make much sense in my opinion, It might be more precise that these types of events are more likely to happen in places like Ukraine where military power is more concentrated and perhaps the worst case scenario, is a war involving all of Europe. But in general, we don't need to worry too much about the global economic crisis due to conflicts between China, Taiwan and the US.

I don't think there will ever be any direct armed conflict between US and any of the existing super powers because this is no longer World War 2 and similar wars where US mainland is not reachable. Any war that US starts won't be thousands of kilometers away, but it will be fought inside US soil too.

If you look at all these years US is at war with the rest of the world but through proxies. The Chinese war will also be yet another proxy war like the war with Russian. In other words Taiwan is China's Ukraine. I believe Chinese authorities know this very well which is why they haven't invaded Taiwan to this day despite most of us thinking they would and despite all the tensions US tried to increase like sending 80-year old Pelosi to Taiwan trying to make her cannon fodder.

I posted some thoughts on this conflict last year. I still think that conflict would bring energy price down since it would put one of the biggest consumers out of the market (decreased demand) but we have to consider that US economy depends on Chinese economy more than Chinese economy depends on US economy! Look at the huge US trade deficit that is increasing year by year. In other words it would terribly ruin US economy.

On top of that, everything specially military equipment is ridiculously expensive in US. If they start a war where their economy is already in ruins, they will not be able to keep it up financially speaking whereas it is not nearly as expensive for China to keep fighting.
The US military think tanks are already talking about the fact that US has already run out of a lot of strategic weapons trying to fight the proxy war with Russia and they won't even be able to refill their weapons cash for years specially with the way inflation and recession is hitting US.

From a military standpoint US is too weak and behind in the technology to fight other actual militaries. Check the US airspace in the past decade. It is regularly being invaded and they can't even detect majority of them and the handful they see they can't detect (UFO) and they struggle to bring down. In short US air defense is a joke.
Compare that with what other super powers can and have done. My current avatar is actually a jab at that

This is what scares me the most because we live in the most strategic country in the world, and we will almost certainly be at war with them, even if they are only at war because we are part of the US alliance. If this happens, then we can't really feel the economic impact as we are in the middle of the war unless we flee to another country. For sure, prices will be more than doubled, and people who are in third-world countries will have more difficulty buying their basic necessities. I am hoping that this is just speculation and far from the truth.

That is what I think as well. Somehow these totalitarian regimes think that war propaganda is an essential element for their governments to stay in power. Hence, China is nonstop talking about how they are getting pulled into a war that they don't actually want, which is of course ridiculous.

But at the same time China isn't interested in a global war. They have been acquiring critical infrastructure all around the globe.



They have been pushing their Belt and Road Initiative (New Silk Road) aggressively for many years now.



I think they would do this only when plan on fighting a war with sanctions rather than with real weapons or even nuclear weapons. As The Sceptical Chymist said, sanctions are the likely scenario at least in the beginning. Nobody would build such an economic network if the plan is to nuke planet Earth anyway.

China does know that fighting a military war would put all of their decades long efforts to an end. There are also the major non-Nato allies like South-Korea and Japan surrounding them and those can't be underestimated either from a strategic point of view. I also doubt that India would ever join forces with China and Russia. I don't know how reliable the Global Firepower Index is, but I would still say that even a coalition between Russia and China would run into dramatic deadlocks unless they are willing to extinguish planet Earth from the universe.

The speed at which China builds its global economic network is concerning as that might be an indicator of China preparing for some form of confrontation, but I doubt it will risk a military confrontation anytime soon due to an attack against Taiwan. Hopefully I am not wrong.

The US is involved in military drills and missions worldwide. I won’t exactly say they’re sponsoring these drills and missions worldwide. And if it’s the Russia Ukraine war that you’re talking about, it’s no new news that the United States is actively sending aid in the form of weapons and equipments. You should know those equipments and weapons are in reserve and could be gifted to other nations. It won’t affect their military operations and capabilities in any way.

The US is not already weakening like you purported, I wouldn’t want to be alive in a world where the two largest economies and military might go into a war to fight themselves. I’d like to think that the US has more allies than China has and in the event of a war, those allies won’t sit on the sidelines for long.

This will have greater effect on the Americans that had been backing the country. It will already affect china because the NATO may declear war against china which is going to be very hard for chip producing countries to be able to meet up with standard. China is going to have a taste of there cake just like we are seeing im Russia Ukraine war.

Just a little correction, Taiwan doesn't have an economic power that is as influential as China's but what it lacks in economic ppwer, it makes up with creating allies within its borders, and the west. Taiwan, has gained the favor of USA and thus will loop them in, along with suballies of the dtate possibly, should a full-scale war against China commence. If a war were to happen between these three nation-states it will not be like the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, it will be of a larger scale considering the firepower each of these countries could put out. Ultimately, I do hope that China lets go of their chokehold on Taiwan and have things end in a diplomatic manner.

Economic implications?  If any of the big world powers end up in a war, economics might come down to how many cockroaches you can scrounge up to feed whatever is left of your family, assuming any of us are alive at the end of said war.

But before the nukes start flying, I'd expect severe sanctions to be imposed on all sides, just like with Russia.  As far as the US is concerned, if China were to impose sanctions like that, it'd cripple our economy (or at least put a big ding in it).  I'm hoping none of this happens--for the sake of generations to come, because a war between China and the US would probably wind up as a full-blown world war, and as you probably all are aware we've got much more powerful weapons now than during the last world war.

And yet we have all of these UFOs flying around....kinda makes you wonder if the rumors Abiky referenced are true.  I don't suspect they're from outer space; they're probably Chinese spy-things gathering intel.  Ugh.

China and the US at war is already a huge blow to the world, and to be honest it seems like they are already 'at it' but just not through violence but through economic sabotages and whatnot. Should these two giants go to war against each other, a lot of countries will be forced to join the war and it will literally be just bloodshed everywhere. I think both countries are using Taiwan as their fuse to have a reason to declare war against each other, and China knows that too that's why they're constantly trying to agitate Taiwan by sending in fighter jets to patrol around the region and cause a reaction from US or Taiwan.

No one wants this war to happen, but it seems that the top brass of both countries are itching to have it their way.

First, I have to say that I don't believe such a scenario is possible (disclaimer: I was sure Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine  ) but in a very unlikely event of a full-scale war between US and China, I guess we're all doomed. Both countries possess nuclear weapons and will probably try to nuke each other asap.

I also believe that Russo-Ukrainian war will end before 2025 (later this year or early 2024 is my prediction). 

Let's hope it doesn't come any time soon, especially while Russia is already at war with Ukraine, because all of the extra confusion could really send us spiraling into situations that were never expected. One war between two  fairly large countries is bad enough, but if it escalates then there could be all sorts of unintended spillovers and events may get far beyond the abilities of the politicians to control them - even if they do end up starting them. Not to mention it will likely cause a very severe shock to the world economy because so many microchips are created in Taiwan and you can say goodbye to the original supply chains coming out of China with all sorts of electronic goods. Russia's invasion of Ukraine would look tiny in comparison.

I wouldn't put so much weight on gut feeling of some US general about the threat. Tensions have been building for a long time now and situation in the world isn't helping.

There are ton of CPC propaganda trying to scare people about what happens if US gets involved into this invasion, ignoring the fact that US have been involved in this from the start and it's China who should watch their steps now. If there's going to be a fight, it's most likely rogue nations against the whole civilized world as this is going to be very symbolic fight with pretty clear objectives.
Literally Democracy versus totalitarianism.

I am seeing only reason for invasion at this point to save China's face, or more likely Chinas' leader Xi Jinping, and that's as a very fragile face (Winnie Pooh). And China knows exactly what happens when it gets isolated along with Russia.

We flashback to the impact when Russia invaded Ukraine. Maybe this impact is felt more by the surrounding countries and countries that have a role on both sides. Do not underestimate the impact of Russia and Ukraine because whether you realize it or not, there has been a spike in prices, especially in the oil and gas sector.

However, if this continues with the outbreak of war between the US and China, it is unimaginable that the world will experience the worst crisis of all time. Nothing can be expected because other countries have close trade relations with the two countries. The process of recovery from the results of the war took many years, and not a few countries failed to recover after a major war.

The US government acknowledges that Taiwan is China so there is no invasion of Taiwan. They are just making it up in fact the majority of the people in Taiwan favor unification with China.

Biden administration couldn't make a friendly competition in the economy so they just encircle China. But if war really happens, I don't think they get will cross the sea to attack, the whole fleet will just sink. China can just take any missile attack from the sea.

But sure the war will weaken China. This is if the BRICS will not go for gold already and have not abandoned completely the USD. So its a race for US to go war before this happens.

The US is already involved in sponsoring many military missions worldwide, over stretched as it is, the US is already weakening unlike china that is not so involved in many military exercises. A conflict between US-China and Taiwan will weaken the US more and will have a massive global effect because the united states and china are two countries that are engaged in production of materials and things exported worldwide, the United States and China also have a lot of military alliances, many countries will be drawn into the war by virtue of their agreement.

The impact will be more than the crisis between Russia-Ukraine. Many countries will be affected, there will be shortages of some commodities.

I hope that these rumors will not come true, although I was hoping that the attack on Ukraine would not happen either, but it happened anyway. In the event that China attacks Taiwan and the US begins to defend it in the sense of placing its military forces between Taiwan and China, it would practically mean that two leading military and economic powers are clashing, which would shake the world far more than is the case for the current war in Ukraine.

We should not forget that China is the most important logistics center with 7 of the 10 largest seaports in the world and that their cities-factories produce most of the devices we use today. The question is whether the US would take a risk for an island, no matter what it is called or where it is, because insisting on such a policy would have unfathomable consequences for their country, but also for all other countries in the world.

Given the way that global demand for personal computers, GPUs and gaming PCs has declined in recent years. I do not think conflict in taiwan would have as much of an impact. While pressure is definitely being applied to taiwan. Its no guarantee of armed conflict or full blown war. Taiwan is probably not a high priority for china or the united states. All eyes at the moment are likely on russia and ukraine. If the war in ukraine escalates, taiwan might easily be forgotten in the background.

It is possible that PC gaming is also on a global decline. Mobile gaming markets are growing, while PC gaming declines. We can see this in new consoles like the playstation 5 not having the all star line up of flagship titles they normally enjoy on release. The economics of the gaming industry is one where PC games are expensive to develop while offering small profit margins. While mobile games offer high revenues with far lower cost of development expense.

Taiwans semiconductor industry revolving around high performance (low nanometer scale) chips in PCs, gives them more leeway as PC gaming declines worldwide.

Although TBH I'm not 100% certain what the chip breakdown is for taiwan. I know they produce many high performance chips which are typically associated with high end performance PCs used by gamers. But as for the rest of their business I'm 100% certain.

The United States and China are two of the biggest economies of the world, exporting more than they import thus making them a growing and thriving economy.
We’re currently experiencing the pushbacks of the war involving Russia and Ukraine and it has been so far not a good experience. The economic fallout of the war has been disastrous and has been felt in most parts of the world. Food shortages as well as energy crisis has rocked the world since the war began.

If the United States go into a war with China, the impact would be devastating and the impact would be felt worldwide. The United States with all its aid program that donates billions of dollars to countries in need and various NGOs like the WHO, and all the United Nations affiliated organizations would likely stop and that would in turn would have an enormous effect on the world.

War is really disastrous even between two small nations and economies. With countries like the United States and China going into a war, the negative impact would be felt hard all over the earth.

And you're saying we need food more than computer chips?  That's probably accurate. Not sure how well they can be produced elsewhere either.

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A China US war would have a huge impact on most international relations and would probably strain them. I don't know if China could handle a them against the world war though if they did try to start one with the US (I don't know how many countries are friendly with either but hopefully we don't have to wait to get a repeat of what happened in the second world war of people assisting invaders until they realised they were worse than what they already had - eg stealing resources, political power etc).

Both US and China-Taiwan have huge influence to economy, it would cause a crisis in every country because almost all countries are depends on neither US or China-Taiwan. But I don't think it's become a war like Russia-Ukraine where each country will hurt the other using military weapons, I would think both country will try to restrict or limit a way of the export and import which is an economy war. Then it's depends on US and China-Taiwan if they will start to war using military weapons or not, because they wouldn't being silent if they can't make money anymore.

No one prays for war, but the USA-China war might be counting down in years, and many of the US top military personnel have confirmed it. I will only blame the world for this by giving China undue power economically, which might, in turn, alter the balance of the world. The two countries I fear most aside from the terrorism-inflicted countries are China and Russia, while the latter has shown the world how irresistible it is, China is only waiting for opportunities. And with their economic power, they can do and undo, but the implication of the Taiwan invasion will be minimal economically since the world does not depend on Taiwan the way they depend on Ukraine for supplies of sunflower meal, oil, seed, wheat and many raw materials.

Only China might be economically sanctioned and might cause further inflation, but it would not be as impactful since the world does not majorly depend on either China or Taiwan for food and raw materials which are major factors that aggravate inflation, the impact might be suppressible as the world turns elsewhere to fulfil their demands and also cooperate with the economic sanction of China tactically.

There are rumors that the US will enter a full-scale war with China once it invades Taiwan in 2025. If we thought the Russo-Ukraine war was coming to an end, then we ain't seen nothing yet. Such a catastrophe within the world's biggest economies (US and China) could lead us to a very dark future where the global economy collapses for good. After all, the US is the biggest economy in the world followed by China. Things will get worse if Russia is still at war with Ukraine by the time this happens. It seems like both China and Russia have ambitions to rule the world, so maybe a "New World Order" is upon us?

How deep of an impact will a US-China-Taiwan conflict have over the global economy? Do you think there's still a possibility for economic recovery after the crisis? Will this weaken the US in the long run? Or will it strengthen it? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.