Topic: Effect of halving on mining network difficulty and transaction speeds (Read 1381 times)

Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

The profitability of mining is not just based on Bitcoin's value. We also need to consider the mining difficulty. As stated above, in the day the difficulty increased by 1%!

thats true i think that its more dependent on difficulty than just on the bitcoin price, i think halving will not have too much of the effect as the price will most probably grow

Therefore, it could also be said that as the difficulty increases, so may Bitcoin's price.
If new coins are harder to get, many of these coins are guarenteed to go to the three main pools/miners, meaning that, they can put prices up due to the difficulty it is to get the block verified and submitted to the network!

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

The profitability of mining is not just based on Bitcoin's value. We also need to consider the mining difficulty. As stated above, in the day the difficulty increased by 1%!

thats true i think that its more dependent on difficulty than just on the bitcoin price, i think halving will not have too much of the effect as the price will most probably grow

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Quote from: Holdaaja on July 11, 2016, 06:45:43 AM

Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

The profitability of mining is not just based on Bitcoin's value. We also need to consider the mining difficulty. As stated above, in the day the difficulty increased by 1%!

There was 40% raise on their rewards because of bitcoin prize rise.
So 1% rise on diff is nothing really. Estimated Next Difficulty: 215,802,220,890 (+1.13%)

Exactly! There was a 40% rise in the rewards due to the price increase.
However, there was a difficulty increase of 1% in one ay! If that continued then the difficulty would rise above 40^ and make it unproitable to mine effectively!

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

The profitability of mining is not just based on Bitcoin's value. We also need to consider the mining difficulty. As stated above, in the day the difficulty increased by 1%!

There was 40% raise on their rewards because of bitcoin prize rise.
So 1% rise on diff is nothing really. Estimated Next Difficulty: 215,802,220,890 (+1.13%)

jackg

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

The profitability of mining is not just based on Bitcoin's value. We also need to consider the mining difficulty. As stated above, in the day the difficulty increased by 1%!

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on July 10, 2016, 11:49:01 AM

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

for the most part of last year bitcoin price was stable at $230 on average and didn't seem to be moving at all. at that price miners were earning 25*230=$5750 per each block they mined and nobody were complaining and no topic on bitcointalk about miners and their future with this price.

now bitcoin price is stable at $640 which means miners are earning 12.5*640=$8000 per each block they mine. now why should they leave?

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halving is surely having a big impact on bitcoins and i think that because of that the transaction speeds will be faster as less people will be sending bitcoins as it will be harder to mine it

~Bitcoin~

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Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

Quote from: StarenseN on July 10, 2016, 11:33:00 AM

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.

StarenseN

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24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

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Quote from: Laosai on July 09, 2016, 12:01:12 PM

From what I know it also can't impact confirmation time no?
It doesn't change anything to have fewer miners, difficulty is here to balance things back. Number of tx are defined by the size block, which won't move.

It would have an impact on the block timing (confirmations) until the difficulty was re-adjusted. Depending on the time (in the adjustment interval) at which miners turn off their machines (I'm not saying that this is going to happen), it would be a very 'annoying' < 2016 blocks.

Quote from: jackg on July 09, 2016, 11:48:29 AM

I can't really use a desktop wallet as I'd have to store it externally to my actual computer in one of my external hard drives. Also, the initial installation takes a very long time and, I do have a torrent to download the entire blockchain but I am waiting to get 5 hours free when I can download it and not use my computer for anything else (or use my reapberry pis with torrenting software)!

No, that's a full wallet. I was actually recommending SPV which is better than using web wallets IMO. A SPV wallet such as Electrum does not take up much space and requires very little time to set up.

Quote from: Holdaaja on July 09, 2016, 02:25:06 PM

And I was just saying why there won't be 50% drop in hash rate with these prices.

I don't think that we are going to see a drop in the hashrate (besides some temporary, small ones maybe).

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 09, 2016, 01:39:02 PM

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.

About 20% lower hashrate, not quite 50%.
But the price also didn't double since then (that would be ~$800).

Quote

25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago

Well no.

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 09, 2016, 12:42:40 PM

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

No, I didn't say they would, but the question was asked that if hashrate dropped, would it slow tx confirmations, and the answer is yes- until another retarget happens. An extreme case is if a lot of hashing power just stopped right now, it would absolutely be noticeable for the next 2000+/- blocks.

And I was just saying why there won't be 50% drop in hash rate with these prices.

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 09, 2016, 12:42:40 PM

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

No, I didn't say they would, but the question was asked that if hashrate dropped, would it slow tx confirmations, and the answer is yes- until another retarget happens. An extreme case is if a lot of hashing power just stopped right now, it would absolutely be noticeable for the next 2000+/- blocks.

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 09, 2016, 12:42:40 PM

Quote from: matrix zion on July 09, 2016, 12:51:32 PM

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting don now...

I suppose that could be true too!
The mining difficulty, though, plays a large part in this! It hasn't actually inceased by very much though since then. But if it were to increase by around 5-10% there would be a massive effect on the sustainability of the machines in use!

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 09, 2016, 12:42:40 PM

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Which could create an incredible jam in transaction confirmations if lots of people suddenly turn off miners

That is true, however the three main mining companies: BW, bitmain/hashnest and bitfury will not immediately turn of their miners.
Hashnest, who are at 30PH/s have to give their customers at least a few hours of warning time before they can turn off their devices.
As these companies cumulatively make up over 60% of the miners in use, then your suggestion will not happen immediately as these companies may lose more money as a result of the halving!

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So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

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So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Which could create an incredible jam in transaction confirmations if lots of people suddenly turn off miners

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So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

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Quote from: Lauda on July 09, 2016, 11:09:03 AM

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

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No. The halving can most certainly not have a direct impact on transaction speed. You don't seem to understand the difference between transaction speed (usually near-instant) and confirmation speed (10 minutes on average). The reason for which some people are experiencing unusual confirmation times is because they don't include adequate amount of fees.

From what I know it also can't impact confirmation time no?
It doesn't change anything to have fewer miners, difficulty is here to balance things back. Number of tx are defined by the size block, which won't move.

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Quote from: Lauda on July 09, 2016, 11:44:32 AM

I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. That is indeed correct: If a sudden drop in the hashrate does occur, then the usual '10 minutes on average' would not be true until the next difficulty adjustement.

But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own.

I highly recommend ditching Coinbase for a desktop wallet.

I can't really use a desktop wallet as I'd have to store it externally to my actual computer in one of my external hard drives. Also, the initial installation takes a very long time and, I do have a torrent to download the entire blockchain but I am waiting to get 5 hours free when I can download it and not use my computer for anything else (or use my reapberry pis with torrenting software)!
Also, I like that coinbase cover transaction fees, I do have an ethereum wallet though and the bitcoin core ready to do a fall blockchain download!

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I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. That is indeed correct: If a sudden drop in the hashrate does occur, then the usual '10 minutes on average' would not be true until the next difficulty adjustement.

Quote from: Lauda on July 09, 2016, 11:25:47 AM

But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own.

I highly recommend ditching Coinbase for a desktop wallet.

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Thanks Lauda, I'll change that con confirmation speed.

The correct wording (IMO): transaction speed (near instant) & confirmation speed (10 minutes on average).

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

If a decent amount of hashpower gets shut down, then it is likely that the average block timing will increase (until a difficulty adjustment).

I also meant that the confirmation speeds will become more stable, though there will still be multiple miners still in business (such as Hashnest, who have around 20-30PHs of S7 miners)

There is no 'stable', they are always stable. You can't say the network is unstable because you've included a fee that was lower than the recommended at time. The miners determine whether your TX will get included in a block (mostly based on the fees included).

I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!
But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own. They are always confirmed wihin a maximum of 15 minutes expected perameter for confirmations to bedone on my transactions!

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Thanks Lauda, I'll change that con confirmation speed.

The correct wording (IMO): transaction speed (near instant) & confirmation speed (10 minutes on average).

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

If a decent amount of hashpower gets shut down, then it is likely that the average block timing will increase (until a difficulty adjustment).