How fast did you want the transaction to confirm?
30 minutes maximum
Damn, what a coincidence, just as I opened to the topic to the updates, I looked at the mempool..and
Last block
2020-10-31 17:07
it's 18:54, nearly two hours without a block, yeah right now there is no guarantee for anything.
But normally when I want a fast transaction and make it cheap as possible I take into account two things that might screw things up
- the time of the day
During the night and morning (GMT time) the mempool decreases, so even if a block has just been mined if you put the lowest fee that was included in the last block you will get it confirmed most likely in the next. The opposite is happening during the evening afternoon, slowly the mempool grows and the minimum fee grows also, so you need to beat by at least a few% the last one not to get trapped. If you have missed the train then it won't confirm till night time.
- how many blocks have been mined previously, if I see than just as I'm preparing to send there has been a lot of luck and miners have solved 5-6 blocks in 20 minutes then it's highly likely a period of slow blocks will be next, so a lot of transactions will gather and compete with mine.
The second one just happened:
When that block was mined in the pool there were only 5k transactions with over 100sat/b now there are 21k.
But, bottom line, I would avoid doing any transactions till Wednesday right now, it's not worth it.