Topic: Elon Musk Profited $2.2B Pumping DogeCoin: Blockchain analysis [DogeWhistle.com] (Read 238 times)

Well, for me, assuming this was or is true, then I must say that him profiting that huge amount of money from doge shouldn't be a thing of surprise to us, I mean one can only promote what he or she has, all this time musk was tweeting about dogecoin, it is only common sense to know that he must be holding a very huge bag of it which he doesn't want to dump at a loss, so knowing that with his affluence, he can pump the price of doge to enable him dump his bag in profit, he did it which is what I think anyone in he's position will do anyway, so am not suprised.

Mr. Musk did everything that was planned. He replenished his budget by 2.2 billion and the coin fell by 13% over the past day. Moreover, people are already tired of these oddities, the cost of Dogecoin did not react in any way to the last post of Musk.

Many already understood that all the excitement was fake.

Yeah, agreed. I just think it's ironic that Redditors (who are often obsessed about "sticking it to the MAN" and "fighting the SYSTEM" and "taking on the WALL STREET BANKSTERS!" (whatever that means) are probably just transferring money to the richest man on Earth. I mean, that would be hilarious. And I don't think it's far-fetched given the transactions I've identified.

Why invent some far-fetched conspiracy theories if there's enough real reasons to not invest in Doge? It's a competitor of Bitcoin, but it's not even 1/100th as decentralized and secure as Bitcoin, it's even more volatile and doesn't have active development. You can't even make an argument that it's more scalable, because Lightning Network is the only way to truly scale. It's also not true that Dogecoin has strong community, as seen by reddit, its community is just people who want to pump and dump it.

True, but taxes need to be reported and paid only on realized gains - if you invest in crypto and it appreciates in value, you don't need to report it on your taxes until you sell it for fiat. And, there is no requirement that Musk (or anyone else) make their tax returns public - see the debate around Trump's tax returns. Even very prominent people aren't legally required to release their taxes to the public. Musk doesn't release his taxes, so there's nothing to report on. There's no law that says "your taxes are private except if you're rich". Everyone has the same legal right to tax privacy (even if we might believe in some moral or public-interest sense that the very-wealthy ought to be excluded from such protections).

Just a speculation, if it's true that Elon made billions on DogeCoin pump, he could have reported taxes on what he earned, you know he is a influential person, he should be more compliant on the law, otherwise it will affect his business reputation which is also billions of worth, and since we didn't here any news about that, so there's no valid proof here but a mere speculation.

Agreed, it's all "unrealized profit". And, in practice, it would be difficult to liquidate that much DogeCoin without influencing the price significantly (it would have to be liquidated gradually over time, and probably spreading the sales out among different exchanges would also be advisable). But, those things are impossible to calculate with certainty, so I just gave figures for unrealized profit, since that can be determined rigorously and explicitly.

Agreed. Lack of due diligence is the main culprit here, as it almost always is.

The fault really rests at the people who were fooled. there's a saying that no one will be able to scam if no one would let themselves be scammed. Kudos to those people who had the initiative tontake advantage of this pump and bought a lot then have sold their bags after having huge profits. The world is full of crap, people need to learn to adapt in order to survive, let alone excel.

You hit the nail on the head.

DogeCoin is, in a deep sense, the Fyre Festival of investment opportunities, in that its value is driven almost entirely by celebrity promotions. The Elongated Muskrat may not intend to engage in price manipulation, but it is a predictable outcome of his behavior, and he is surely aware of it. In any case, no sane moral philosophy would accept this as an excuse: we are responsible for the predictable outcomes of our actions, even if those outcomes are not explicitly desired. Few of us would be sympathetic to a defendant who stands before a Court of Law and declares: “Your Honor, Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury – please understand, that while I knew that running that red light would result in the deaths of those pedestrians, I didn’t desire to kill them – that was just a side-effect. What I desired was to shave 5 minutes off my morning commute.” An investment in DogeCoin is, for all intents and purposes, an investment in Elon Musk’s Twitter feed (or, think of it as a Twitter Feed ETF which primarily holds MUSK but also some SNOOP). The Elongated Muskrat and the D-O-Double-G may well be the “smart money”, but those following after them are certainly not.   

In my opinion, Elon Musk's enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies arising from the meme is worrying. Because various tweets uploaded by Musk are only a vehicle for investor speculation. Unfortunately, a lot of retail investors could lose their money through Dogecoin in the long run, because there isn't really anything exciting about technology. Dogecoin is an empty shell whose price has gone up simply because of people's need for entertainment.

Load the DogeChain into a relational database with this schema:

https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/DogeDatabaseSchema_FLATTENED.png

Then run this query. It proves that DogeCoin flowed from the whale address to the charity address:

https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SmokingGun_FixCrop_2021-02-16.png

And, this transaction completed at the exact time Musk tweeted about donating:

https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GiveDirectlyToTheElongatedMuskrat.png

Regarding disclosures, he's only required to disclose what Tesla owns, not what he himself owns privately. He is required to disclose private ownership in companies of which he is the CEO (ex. Tesla and SolarCity); you can do a Freedom of Information request for forms SEC-3 and SEC-4 from the Securities and Exchange Commission. But, he's not required to disclose DogeCoin ownership.

Theories are everywhere and can be applied to anything. If you can look hard enough you will find something that fits your theory.

As for DOGE being already in one of Elon's wallets, I'm not entirely surprised. I understand that at the moment there is no conclusive evidence but the suggestion is there. So, I give OP some credit for digging in a little bit. This does not mean I agree with all that's been posted but it gives you something to think about.

Elon has been quite prolific (to say the least) in tweeting about DOGE, everything sending the market on its head. Coincidence??? Maybe, but why out of hundreds of coins he'd choose DOGE... I believe he's got a stake in it (don't yet know what this is) but this info is something that gets you thinking (if you wanted to think more about it  )

The Whale Address does not belong to any cryptocurrency exchange. First, it is far too large; even Binance, the highest-liquidity exchange for DogeCoin, controls about 20% of all Doge in existence (of which 13.8% is in Doge-Tether pairs, 3.4% is in Doge-BTC pairs, 0.6% is in Doge-USD pairs, 0.42% is in Doge-Euro pairs, and the remainder is in pairs with small cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies with no pair contributing more than 1%). In fact, even the top 100 exchanges combined do not have holdings anywhere near as large as the Whale Wallet. See CoinMarketCap’s study on DogeCoin exchange liquidity. Second, exchanges rarely put all their Doge (or anything else) in one basket (or address), for obvious reasons. Third, the Whale Address is relatively new; it was first funded on 2019-02-05, long after major exchanges added support for Doge. Fourth, the Address has relatively low activity levels, averaging about 215 transactions per year (incoming and outgoing combined); a typical exchange using a single hot wallet for all DogeCoin storage would process orders-of-magnitude more transactions in a similar period.

The Whale Address does not belong to any online wallet service. Storing DogeCoin (or any cryptocurrency) in an online wallet is the pinnacle of idiocy, but as you may have noticed, idiots do exist. That said, even the most popular online wallet (DogeChain.Info) has nowhere near as much DogeCoin in all of its users’ accounts combined as exists in the Whale Address. Further, online wallets use keys segregated by user for storage, rather than consolidating multiple customers’ coins in a single wallet (again, for obvious reasons). See DogeChain’s key-storage policies.

The Whale Address does not belong to an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund), Mercantile Exchange, or similar financial entity. This is easy: there are no DogeCoin ETFs or similar. Good luck trying to convince the SEC to license your DogeCoin 401(k) retirement plan.

The Whale Address does not belong to an early miner and/or DogeCoin developer. The earliest of early-adopters will sometimes accumulate substantial amounts of cryptocurrency, typically through mining when difficulty is low, buying when prices are cheap, or a combination of the two. Indeed, most cryptocurrencies begin with low mining difficulty and low to negligible valuation; BitCoin itself did. However, the majority of DogeCoins in the address-of-interest were mined (relatively) recently. Following transactions back to their genesis blocks and studying mining rewards and historical difficulty levels shows that, even with extremely optimistic assumptions about mining rig efficiency and electricity cost, the DogeCoin in the Whale Wallet cost tens of millions of dollars of electricity to produce (in reality, the electrical cost was probably in the low-hundreds of millions of dollars). Like the Address itself, the Doge within are too new to be associated with early miners or developers.

The Whale Address does not belong to RobinHood. This stockbrokerage and options marketplace is closely associated with WallStreetBets (despite never being particularly popular with its own userbase). RobinHood offers DogeCoin for purchase, and likely holds some DogeCoin itself. However, it is absolutely neither the owner nor the controller of the Whale Wallet. First of all, RobinHood does not offer withdrawal of DogeCoin, nor does it make users’ private (or even public) keys available to them. This suggests that RobinHood is trading primarily or exclusively in “paper DogeCoin”, and that it owns little or none of the underlying asset; such practice is standard for brokerages, whether the asset is stocks or gold or cryptocurrency. It is precisely this lack of hard assets that motivated RobinHood to halt trading of GameStock ($GME) during a Reddit-induced short squeeze. Secondly, and more importantly, the value of the Whale Wallet is far too large to be owned by such a relatively-small company. RobinHood is an American LLC (Limited Liability Corporation), and as a result, its financial records are not available for public scrutiny to the degree that would be legally required if it was a public corporation. However, we do know that it has received a total of $953 million in capital funding ($110 million from Yuri Milner in April 2017; $363 million from DST Global in May 2018; $280 million in May 2020 from Sequoia Capital; $200 million from D1 Capital Partners in August 2020). Its total market valuation is approximately $8.3 billion. If RobinHood owned the Whale Wallet, it would own DogeCoin valued at approximately 2.7 times the entire amount invested into the company over the past 7 years. Further, this would imply that ~31% of the company’s entire market value is due to its DogeCoin holdings. While we can’t inspect RobinHood’s inner financial workings, its investors can (and do); anyone who has gone through the funding process knowns that prospective investors are exceedingly diligent regarding this. No major investor is going to pour money into a start-up so that it can buy $2.6 billion dollars in DogeCoin. The theory that RobinHood holds the Whale Wallet, while popular among Reddit’s DogeCoin enthusiasts, is exceedingly implausible; it reflects deep misunderstandings about the nature of brokerages, the size of RobinHood, and the relationships between pre-IPO investors and start-up companies.

This isn’t a defense of RobinHood. DogeCoiners are correct in urging RobinHood users to sell any DogeCoin they own on the platform and repurchase it on a real exchange such as Binance. DogeCoiners are correct in warning about the dangers of uncontrolled key custody. The heart of their argument (“RobinHood may not, and likely does not, have anywhere near enough DogeCoin to cover the purchases made on its platform”) is an excellent reason to avoid RobinHood, but it is also the reason why RobinHood cannot be the controller of the Whale Wallet.

Are you sure that the doge isn't owned by some kind of groups though?
It's honestly a little bit unbelievable to see elon owns that much of a doge since he seems just get into crypto recently and to buy 30% of the total supply in such short amount of time there gonna be some huge uproar but we've seen none.
I guess the owner of that much doge is like organizations and not some individual, this speculation could be very wrong.

I am agreeing with you on this. As for now, there is no way we can determine that indeed Elon Musk (or is it Elongated Muskrat?) made this money from his supposed manipulative support in DogeCoin. Not unless, of course, we can see an official disclose from the man himself. So that brings me to my question: Is Elon Musk or a company he is controlling required by law to disclose his involvement in DogeCoin and the amount of profits they made? His Tesla made the announcement for the big buy of Bitcoin but there is no announcement so far for DogeCoin except of course that tweet from Elon on his buying Dogecoin for his son.

It doesn't seem to be a true story about that. The richest address that hodls 2 billions doge coins were starting to buy doge when it was less than 2 cents.
It seems like that address being controlled by entity, it was accumulating the a lot of doge coins before the pump was happening. That could be a company who has been buying doge coin. that address is the main reason for the doge pump.
For me elon is always having a very big surprise.
That address could belong to him but there must be a financial report if he already spend multi million dollars to buy dogecoin.

This is possible but until a solid proof is submitted this is nothing but pure guess and speculation. Elon could actually have made money out of his Doge memes on twitter. But it seems it was purely out of fun that he made those. I am not sure of this either. I could be wrong or right just like you.

What we can be sure of is that many must have fallen for his meme. Lucky for those who made profit but not for those who bought during the pump.

Regardless if he profited big time or not, people bite on his tweet and pump Doge so hard that everyone thinks it will go to $1.00. However, when Musk revealed that they have invested $1.5 billion on bitcoin, the shifts follow, Doge saw a big dump and then moving all-in to BTC.

And I don't think he breaks any rule though, it is what is it, an influence figure influencing a very volatile market, either you go home or win big in this game. And Elon knows that for sure.

DogeWhistle.com, I listed all the transaction IDs and even the SQL queries needed to find the transaction path. If you have access to Google BigQuery, you can load the DogeChain and run the queries yourself (use a Public Data Connector). I can't easily paste that all in here.

I don't doubt any theory that Elon Musk gets profits from his tweets but you did not provide the details of your blockchain analysis. I don't know which wallets in the Dogecoin richlist belong to Elon Musk. Even if I can identify them, I don't know which price Elon Musk sold it to take profit. I don't know his entry price with Dogecoin.

Do you think Elon Mush breaks any rule with his tweet? I don't see it. I don't know he got how much profit from Dogecoin but he has his rights to use any money he has to charity activities, donations.

Dogecoin Rich List: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-dogecoin-addresses.html

He buying or not.

The reality no one knows right, all just speculation. ELON likes memes so don't take it serious his tweet, the real solid proof from him on cryptocurrency only holding 0.3 BTC from someone who gifts to him and admitted this on his twitter.

So, no matter you are speculated the wallet if no solid proof at all that just speculation.

Here are the transaction IDs:

Step 1: 3cdf109ae7265608c2f91e833a682aac06601e6fe5a0155255ffc8a98a772a21
Step 2: e8fc9c76b678ac3cd50978fb4b14684c41e018f3dbdd23e3ed9e79e36ea17f98
Step 3: 800f13d8cf5e114f85b3891c48b91359b6951e737735a7393a7ab285dcfcba0c
Step 4: 928593f49999db4a4d73db7388de397a650d9e7692970802ec0c41c1c09a9c22

I made a chart showing the path of the DogeCoin: https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/DogeFlow_ZoomOut_2021-02-16.png

I laid it out more on the site. The way he profited isn't that hard to understand: buy low and then pump.

While it's probable, we would appreciate if you could lay out all the details in your post how he profited $2.2 Billion? I'm not sure what to make of deposit to a charity. IIRC, he also made an offer to reward those big bag holders if they sell.

Don't know if that will be a good correlation. In crypto, it is hard to believe such theories unless, you can provide those transactions IDs and the ownership of that address. Til then, it is just pure speculation and you can't convince other people about such coincidence. Anyway, whatever Elon is doing to his riches, it is none of our business. At least, he is sharing some of his wealth to charity.

Agreed that it's not solid proof (though there's no way to solidly prove that anyone controls any address really, unless they come out and say so. But the correlations between whale-wallet transactions and statements by Musk are just too strong. He tweeted about buying just as DogeCoin flowed into the wallet. He tweeted about selling just as funding flowed out. He tweeted about donating to a charity just as DogeCoin from the Whale Wallet flowed to that exact donation address. It's circumstantial evidence, but I think it's pretty strong. I laid it out on the site.

Just speculate and no solid proof at all.

How you can verify that $2.6 billion worth of DOGE coin belongs to ELON? IMO the wallet contains $2.6 B just a pure speculation and cannot be taken as proof this DOGE belong to Elon.

Unless ELON shares with the public how much worth he was holding.

We all know that the Elongated Muskrat pumps DogeCoin on Twitter. That's not news. We know his tweets rock the market - that's not news, either. We also know that a single wallet holds ~28% of all DogeCoin (about $2.6 billion at current prices, though the coin is so volatile that you'll need to recalculate the account's value every five minutes). I loaded the entire DogeCoin blockchain into a SQL database and found that the Whale Wallet transferred money to an obscure charity just as Musk tweeted about donating to that charity.

You take the blue pill: The story ends, you wake up in your bed, and you can believe whatever you want to believe. You can choose to believe that the optimal financial strategy involves pouring your savings into a meme-based cryptocurrency hyped by an eccentric billionaire (who, incidentally, was fined $20 million by the SEC in 2018 for manipulating stock prices via Twitter). You can choose to believe that a man capable of controlling cryptocurrency prices and earning billions from price fluctuations has passed up this opportunity for profit out of the goodness of his heart. You can even choose to believe that reading stale memes constitutes “due diligence”, and that Snoop Dogg, Jake Paul, and assorted TikTok celebrities make for excellent financial advisors.

You take the DOGE pill: You stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the muskrat-hole goes.

DogeWhistle.com

EDIT: You all don't like visiting external sites. That's fine - I'll add some content from my site here.

The transaction IDs linking the Whale Wallet to GiveDirectly, a small charity Musk contributed to:

Step 1: 3cdf109ae7265608c2f91e833a682aac06601e6fe5a0155255ffc8a98a772a21
Step 2: e8fc9c76b678ac3cd50978fb4b14684c41e018f3dbdd23e3ed9e79e36ea17f98
Step 3: 800f13d8cf5e114f85b3891c48b91359b6951e737735a7393a7ab285dcfcba0c
Step 4: 928593f49999db4a4d73db7388de397a650d9e7692970802ec0c41c1c09a9c22

Flow chart (follow the yellow Doge, Neo): https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/DogeFlow_ZoomOut_2021-02-16.png

SQL query proving the link: https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SmokingGun_FixCrop_2021-02-16.png

SQL query proving that a statistically-improbable number of transactions include "69" and "420": https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SexAndWeedNumberFinder_FLATTENED.png

Musk's fascination with "69" and "420": https://dogewhistle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ElonMusk_EvenMore_FourTwentySixtyNine.png

Please do read the site before commenting "u hav no proofs...where r the proofs?". I agree this evidence isn't 100% rock-solid, but I think it's strong overall.