Topic: Estimated total FIAT spent on Bitcoin vs Marketcap (Read 948 times)

So basically, you used a lot of words to say "perception is reality", right?

That sounds right.

imagine it as simply an exchange that has no withdrawal or deposits of fiat. and then people move their bitcoin to localbitcoins.com .... all within the same website.

thats about as simple as i can explain their plan

Cheers lads, had to read through slowly  

You make some excellent points I didn't consider. Naive considering I trade almost everyday, but exchanges cannot/should not influence the price. The orderbook should be dependent upon clients BUY/SELL orders. By that rationale, a collective manipulation is theoretically possible.

Your approx. $300,000,000 injection estimate (well explained thanks!) does make sense and true, a lot less than I had previously envisaged.

The coins I trade each day may have past between different owners many multiple times, so I guess difficult to address original question - how much has been spent on bitcoin, thus far? Some of my coins may have been traded 12 times (12x$450) transferring more FIAT.

Thanks again for your thoughts, good brain workout for me!




re: Huobi, from what I understand, the CEO wants to facilitate a more social trading/networking environment, don't know how robust this model will be. Can understand why some exchanges chose to exercise restraint gaining formal licensing - fair point!


  

trying to keep it internationally generalised:
most exchanges do not want to pay out large sums to buy licences, infact huobi is proving they do not have one and want to find a 'work around' to not require one.
SOME exchanges do not even have a business bank account and are operating through personal accounts (intersango proved this) and they will want to find 'work around' to not require one.

governments do not hate BITCOIN, they only hate people who want to handle FIAT, but dont want to go through FIAT red tape. and to be honest. if you cant even trust a cousin in your family with your life savings, then why should you even dare trade on an exchange that is not insured. (MTGox proves this)

only trade your life savings and large amounts on licenced exchanges, and just risk 'disposible income' on these less legit exchanges.

but lets mention china.. the government want bitcoin exchanges that touch FIAT to get telecommunication licences, register their business so they can atleast then open business accounts. any exchange that is having issues right now has not done atleast 1 of the 3 i just said.

it does not take as much as any of you think...

the market cap is not based on actual fiat bank notes.

here are 2 examples
1. if we contacted every trader on the top 3 exchanges, and ask all of them to simply move their sell orders up to $2000+ and never sell below $2000. then without spending a dime th price will become $2000.

2. exchanges do not hold all 13mill coins in exchanges, you will find that exchanges normally only hold 10k-1mill coins and not all of them are actually on the sell order wall at the same time. now out of the coins that are on the sell wall. they are spread out at prices from todays value all the way up to whacky prices of many thousands of dollars (yes there are some people that have put in whacky orders and left them there longterm).
so all that matters is the number of bitcoins between todays price, and $2000. well bitstamp, btc-e, bitfinex may have anything from 100 coins to 50k each. meaning maybe 150k btc is all that is is needed to cause the price rise

in short a free collective decision can cause a price manipulation to show a new market cap of $24bill
in short buying under 50k coins on one market can cause a sheep following scenario of the other markets (panic buying)
in short buying 150k coins on all the main markets can cause the price to rise

and the most it would cost is well under $300,000,000 to make a $6bill market turn into a $20bill market

and now you will understand the term "its too volatile" because the price can be manipulated to show a market cap that does not actually have $6bill+ bank notes lingering around to hold it up.

the market cap is not a measurement of bank notes spent, it is just a average value of all coins at a current price. which can change, EASILY

I would argue the market cap will grow every year for at least the next decade, probably longer, after which point it will at worst plateau for a century.

You want to know Bitcoin's ultimate market cap? Add up all the fiat in the world.

Have no idea how to accurately calculate this, but to get the ball rolling  

I will say it's far larger than our current marketcap:  $16,000,000,000

Taking into account, how most folks pay a fee sending to their exchange(s) and Sellers on Localbitcoins charge 5+% margin, etc

Has anyone calculated the actual amount of $'s converted in Bitcoin so far?

Current market capitalization @ $5,647,024,678    (#coins in circulation x $price/BTC)

How much more FIAT needs to be injected for the price to go $2000? Accounting for temporal variation.

Between Oct/Nov Good old Bitstamp's green candles add up to around 1,540,000 BTC





Also have a side topic, forum doesn't need another thread on China. However what do you guys make of Huobi's proposed workaround, I don't understand it?

"Speaking to the media outlet, Huobi co-founder Jun Du suggested that the company is considering a plan to use its exchange platform as a marketplace and price aggregator for digital currency buyers and sellers.

Under this proposal, Du told Sina Tech that users would form their own online chatroom group using a popular tool offered by the tech giant Tencent. Buyers and sellers within this group would then exchange bitcoin or recharge codes for RMB, interacting independently of the exchange."