Has anyone done any calculations on the Bitcoin price based upon the cost to mine?
A quick check at this calculator:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator shows that at the current difficulty, a $1,500 60GH/s mining rig will produce ฿189 or $11,921 per month.
I know that those ASICs are just starting to ship out, but at this price it would be smarter to buy an ASIC than to put that $1,500 in MtGox.
Once those ASICs start shipping on the level of being able to buy a PS3, the price of Bitcoin will likely more closely mirror the cost to produce as opposed to being so high above the manufacturing costs.
How many ASICs are currently on order and how much will this affect the difficulty? That is key to determining the target price level.