Topic: ETF accumluation and price impact for bull run (Read 359 times)

The numbers are out for Friday and it turns out it was something like $500M net inflows. So almost $1B of inflows in the last 2 days, hence why we touched $48K.

If this trend keeps up we will break the yearly high and head into the lower $50Ks. And I guess if the stock market is rallying also we will get more and more people buying crypto and getting into these etfs.

Right now it’s easy to invest in bitcoin due to these etfs. So into the halving should be a great time.

We could speculate a lot about the inflow of money through ETF, but let's not forget that the price is formed by both supply and demand. ETFs increase demand for Bitcoin because it's a new way of buying BTC, but we can't predict the available supply of Bitcoin, despite knowing the total supply of Bitcoin. That's because we don't know how many coins will be up for sale during the next bull run, or how would the insitutional investors trade. I personally believe that those big investors are not "long-term holders" like retail investors on this forum - they won't wait for 10 years to take profits and would rather make a few big trades in every bull and bear market to take the full advantage of Bitcoin's volatility.

Nothing unnatural since week-ends have usually more volatility than working days. The volume is smaller and boosts the volatility since smaller orders have bigger impact on price than during weeks. So we should wait for tomorrow or this night to see how the price will react with higher volumes when markets will open.

Its was stipulated that today was very strong. But yesterday was stronger than today via the bitcoin ETF flows.



It comes out of real time right here in case anyone wants to track it. Link

Source of information Here

Yesterday, the ETF had a net inflows of more than 541 millions.
This equates to more than 11,000 BTC.
Quite an astonishing number when compared to the daily supply of mined bitcoin of 900 units, soon to be halvved.

Institutional investments will always look big, but that is mainly because its a lot of money all at once from single source, but maybe it is not as big as we imagine? Do you think that if there were 13 million people in the world, who all bought 0.01 bitcoins, normally a small amount by itself, it would be news? Now imagine they did that in six months span? Or even 2 months span, would that be news? No, but the reality is that it would be 130k bitcoins too, and yet it would not be a news at all anyway. So it is the single source part that makes this a news, nothing more.

Not sure if they are called ETF when they are just buying up, like a company is allowed to do, because ETF is a different thing all together. But even with that, if we use this calculation I think the amount of money being taken, the accumulation that these companies are doing, would have to be considered a lot higher without a doubt.

It makes bitcoin go to a great level and should be something that will benefit everyone. The more they buy and hold the more money they make and I think it has to be very crucial to our future. It is clear that we are going to end up with a good return, and while it will not be all thanks to them, it will definitely be a good thing to handle in the end, it will be a bit of their help that get us there.

It's quite obvious because the whales and institutional investments don't think like us as we are the first ones to predict any pump or dump though we are wrong most of the time because we take decisions based on world events like people buy due to FOMO or sell due to fuds but whales keeps accumulating and then they make the price surge during bull run to the extend of over value and dump it that's why we see price correction phase after every bull run. I think this is a strategy as to accumulate more Bitcoin and there might be more dip in the price in case if they decide to buy more. But, since we are aware how it works during bull run it would be better even if we start accumulating and not sell off much unless it's absolutely emergency or necessity.

I am thinking that with the combination of them what if it's going to reach 500k-1M Bitcoins? That's a lot of money honestly, I haven't done any calculation yet but it may come to that point but I am talking about combined acquisition by all of them.

That makes sense, not quite high but just like a x2 from the last bull run. And I think that this is what we're getting every cycle we get in. Like for 2017, it was $20k then $69k on 2021 so the number goes on.

Grayscale must be there already before we know or hear of ETF. So they can exist even without ETF or if ETF suddenly disappears. Same goes with MicroStrategy. Their name isn't being used alone but they truly did invest in BTC. It may or may not affect the price of MSTR stock. If the effect is positive then the effect in BTC ETF is also the same but if it's negative then the effect to BTC ETF is also negative.

I still believe that BTC price can exceed $150k no matter what, because its price doesn't only depend on those factors but there are lots of them. If $150k is possible then how much more $130k? But even if the price only returned to our previous ATH, many will already sell their coins. Also when the price hits $100k.

Maybe it makes sense to say that because this can lead to more buying demand which will lead to price increases, it's just that the current condition of society feels uncomfortable seeing price movements in the market and can be said to be quite boring. Apart from that, they also have to calculate several other factors outside their control, such as global events or others.

After coming to the ETF market, we thought that the liquidity of the market would increase a lot, but nothing happened as expected. Rather, we are hearing negative news of some organizations. Neither Gray Scale nor Black Rock invested as expected. But there is nothing to be disappointed about because I think it is nothing but a kind of strategy. We will see more bitcoins accumulate in the Q1 ETF market this year and this trend is expected to continue. Moreover, if Halving takes place next July, the market can make a big bull run. At that time the impact of ETFs will be different if the market is bullish. Those who are whale investors must try their best to apply new strategies. While the ETF looks calm now, its rumble will soon take the market into a different mood.

Im not really that too optimistic about getting into those higher value or price of Bitcoin on this upcoming bull run. We should really be at least wary that they wont really be buying always on which there would really be coming into the time that they would really be selling their bags and since we do know that they are owning tons of coins then they could really just dump into our faces. This is one of the things that i do see
about the negative about these ETF approval or simply getting involved with institutional funds on which that they could really be able to take advantage on what this market have.

Im not saying that they cant put up that kind of increase in the market but i do always have those doubts that dumping hard could really happen but well it is really that early to draw up some
conclusions but it cant really be just that be avoided not to think about those probabilities on which they would really be doing that on the time that they do see
that it is really that already ripe for them to harvest profits. 

Currently, most of the institutions like black rock and others are buying bitcoin through the OTC market and therefore we do not see a sharp rise in the prices. As per the analyst, the OTC market can not fulfil the requirement of these ETFs and sooner they will have tp buy bitcoin from the open market. We all know that the quantity of Bitcoin on exchanges is way too low to meet the demand of these institutions.

So after the halving, in the next bull market, we will not only see the price hike due to the bitcoin 4-year's bull cycle but also the true picture of ETF will also unfold at the same time, making bitcoin price beyond any imagination.
If there were not Bitcoin ETF, we might thought 120-150K would have been the bitcoin bull market top but now since we have ETFs approved, it's really hard to tell how hign Bitcoin may reach.

Also, I think the bear market will be less severe and brutal this time as those people who buy bitcoin through ETF, there vision is for the long term and they are not going to sell anytime soon.

It is only a matter of time and the increase will happen, it will be gradual and it will not happen fast enough. Those who accumulate will be prepared to buy lagui at a cheaper price and thus there will be a lot of manipulation done to make the price as cheap as possible. Big companies are also waiting for it to come in so they can multiply their profits.

Unless they do some marketing with the ETF like how they sell stocks, it's more likely for us to see more accumulation because these companies have been wanting these ETF and I don't think that they're going to lie down and take the L for the hype dying down because they've fought for this to be approved by the SEC for so long so I don't believe they'll let it fizzle out, they might even find ways to manipulate this so they can sell more ETF to their investors. That's a really high number if you ask me, 500k in 2025 seems like a dream but seeing a lot of miracle that bitcoin has showered us before, I don't think it's far fetch to see it go to that price point, the only problem is that there's bound to be a lot of people that's going to take profit when bitcoin reaches 100k and that could be a factor for it to not reach 500k by 2025.

ETF only works as a bullish premise if it expands the market in some way but if I swap my BTC held elsewhere for that ETF its nothing new especially though the market is more diverse and flexible perhaps.   We all presume new people enter to use the ETF for its hands off ability and ease to buy and trade during a day if wanted so BTC becomes even more tradable, this helps raise velocity of money and so the overall valuation to BTC capitalization because we have some BTC going back and forth in this trade.
  I think we're talking about the next 12 months plus for that to be a thing, its a slow positive as more new people decide to add maybe 1% of their portfolio in this instrument and prior they had not involved BTC in their portfolio etc.   Also traders sure may like ETF too.
   The price right now is unproven in any breakout especially, its trying but going back and forth across the 50 day average.

Accumulation during this period is quite strong, while there are moments when people sell, those people who sell are usually not the ones who are accumulating for after the halving, maybe a little but not all. There are even huge companies who are accumulating right now, so they could actually do something with all that money and they are waiting for it to have a bull run.

There are way too many people and a ton of money in the world that waits for the market to go up, and I think it looks like that will be a possibility given enough time, sure it looks like it may not be all too quick, but that also doesn't mean that it will not happen, it will just take some time and I bet that it will happen one way or another eventually.

That's how things that affect the long-term works, they don't immediately get through and deliver their results because there's some point that these companies that carry these ETFs have a ghastly plan to manipulate the market and this isn't the time for them to do that yet so they end up with this. Look at halving, after it happens, the effect or result of it doesn't quickly shows itself, the last time it took about a year before we've reached a new ATH so that's the same with ETFs I think, that they're going to be affecting the long-term rather than the short-term which is a good thing because that means that you can still buy now and hope that you've accumulated enough to get a generous amounts of profit.

The future of Grayscale exists as the ETF exists, but what is the fate of MicroStrategy, where for long periods their name was used as a proxy for BTC as the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin? If it affects the price of MSTR stock, it may lead either to making the effect of bitcoin in the ETF less or it will lead to a negative impact on MSTR stock, which would be a factor in making Bitcoin not exceed $150,000.

In any case, I believe that Bitcoin is capable of reaching $130,000, which is a good selling point for many.

It has. I think the main factor that drove the increase of Bitcoin's price before the SEC announcement of an approval came out was the anticipation that the applications will be approved. When the news came out, selling pressure built up but the demand side was strong enough to absorb the pressure. This probably explains why there wasn't a spike when the news came out. But there's always an effect because a huge demand was created with the approval.

The selling has already died down a lot. We will see the price slowly recovering from here. Add to it the halving and we'll see 6 digits soon.

I dont like on estimations but one thing that i do have in mind, i cant see a bubble on what happened on previous last 2 bull runs on which it would really be that lesser as of this upcoming one. Why?
I do have that gut feeling that institutional funds are the ones who would really be playing out on the market and would really be the reason on why this upcoming bull run wont really be shooting up into the moon
yet these greedy bastards would really be securing out their profits since they do already got the position. Sad to say but its the truth considering that they do have that kind of capability
when it comes to finances or fund that they could bring out and bought tons of coins or specifically Bitcoin.

Well, this is really just that my opinion which i might be wrong or right on which we do have our own approach when it comes to various things.
Thing here is that you should really know on how to ride with the waves despite of these fundamentals.

If spot ETFs were to be removed from the equation as if they did not exist, we would still be quite optimistic considering that we are in the halving year and would probably expect the next ATH to be at least x2 compared to the previous one, right? Therefore, we may be a bit modest with our speculations and Bitcoin could surprise us, as many times in the past.

I don't know if there is any meaningful data on how much BTC is available for trading if you only take into account all the relevant CEXs - but if I remember correctly it was written about numbers of some 2+ million BTC, although with price increases we should always consider that in each moment, hundreds of thousands or even millions of BTC from non-custodial wallets can flood the market.

In any case, the months ahead will be very interesting, and maybe only after the halving will real excitement await us in the sense that ETFs will explode only then.

I think the GBTC dump is mainly driven by the FTX estate dumping. Additional factors like profit realization, especially considering that Grayscale's ETF is only a conversion of an already existing product, and a comparably higher fee compared to its competitors add to it. But GBTC remains to be at the top.

The hype would gradually die down. Accumulation would slow down. And seeing a big potential for the price to double or even more in the next year or so, investors money could only afford so much. So I guess 500,000 all in all by the end of 2025 is realistic. But for me that includes GBTC already.

Yeah I was trying to be conservative based on the fact that I assume buying these first few weeks will be much higher than where it will settle due to initial excitement of ETFs being available and probably a lot of people have been waiting a long time to get into Bitcoin ETFs and they are going to mostly buying these first few weeks.

But you're right it could certainly be more. Yesterday all the ETFs just had a nice net positive inflow (has mostly been net negative due to the massive Grayscale selling) of over $250 million, so ETFs net buying was probably close to 6000 bitcoin just yesterday. Excluding Grayscale it was more like $450 million of buying yesterday, or over 10,000 bitcoin. If the buying stays up at several hundred million dollars on a daily basis for the next month or two while prices are still low, these ETFs will quickly accumulate several hundred thousand bitcoin and easily trounce my estimates above.

10k bitcoin a day, 5 days a week, 4 weeks a month, would mean 200k bitcoin in a single month.
My numbers were based on thinking the buying would drop below $100 million daily this week or next week as initial excitement fades and settle under $50m daily. And also I didn't realize the buying on the non-Grayscale exchanges was still several hundreds of millions until I just saw the data. Blackrock and Fidelity have each been typically buying $100m to $200m daily, while the other ETFs together buy a few tens of millions of dollars daily, and so far it isn't slowing down.

So while my estimate was meant to be conservative, yeah its definitely possibly I greatly low-balled the demand for these ETFs in the next two years. Could potentially see the non-Grayscale ETFs owning over a million bitcoin by the time this cycle peaks late next year. In which case >$150k peak price seems likely to me, as an extra half a million bitcoin being off the market is a very significant amount of the liquid bitcoin that is out there being traded around.

If you say that they already accumulated about 130 000 BTC today, and that in less than 20 days from the approval of the ETF, it would be logical to assume that the total number of BTC by the end of this year will probably be much higher than what you are speculating about. Of course, the current figures can be attributed to the initial excitement, so maybe it would be good to wait 1-2 months and only then start to draw some conclusions.

If you are talking about the number of 500 000 BTC by the end of the cycle, then it is not too much for a period of 2 years - especially if we take into account that Microstrategy "removed" from the market just a little less than 200 000 BTC, although admittedly in a long period. I would perhaps dare to say that the funds could buy even more than 500 000 BTC in the mentioned period, but only for the reason that we are in the halving year, which should mark the beginning of a new big bull run.

As for the new ATH, I think it would be realistic to expect it to be x2 compared to the previous one of $69k - which means at least some $140k and up to $200k if the ETFs turned out to be big BTC accumulators in that period.

Fun question: how much bitcoin do you think the ETFs will accumulate by the bull run peak in 2025, and what price impact do you think that'll have on the market?

Only count the 10 ETFs excluding Grayscale since Grayscale already had a ton and then dumped a bunch and it just makes things messy.


As of end of last week (two and a half weeks of the ETF operating) the non-grayscale ETFs have accumulated just over 130,000 bitcoin.




I'd expect the amount of money coming into ETFs to naturally slow after the excitement of the launch is over, and as the price rises the same amount of money will buy fewer bitcoin. So I think ETFs could accumulate another 300k to 350k bitcoin by end of the market cycle, presumably sometime late next year, putting their total at about 500k bitcoin by that point. I think roughly another 100k first half of this year, roughly 100k second half of this year, and then another roughly 100k next year until market top since price will be much higher so it'll take a lot more money to get bitcoin.

Without ETFs I had been expecting this cycle's peak price to be $120k to $140k, but with now with ETFs I could see it potentially being more like $140k to $160k.


What do you all think? Your estimates cycle top price and for amount of btc held in ETFs by that point.