ETF and Bakkt will have effect, but BTC halving is the main deal.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: odukoyaewatomi27 on January 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

Looking at the past history and chart of the crypto market, there have only been two halving in history (2012 and 2016) and both resulted in a powerful bullish trend which took coins to a new all time high. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for mid 2020, and it will have a powerful bullish trend on the crypto market.

People like to believe that there is a correlation between halvings and bull trends, and they make up faulty explanations to support their misconceptions. The most common explanation is the "reduced supply" explanation, which is simply not true.

If you actually look at the history, you will see that the trends do not actually coincide with the halvings. There is actually is a low correlation when you don't cherry-pick just the trends around the times of the halvings. In other words, there have been many ATHs over the last 10 years. The fact that two of them happened near the occurrences of the halvings means nothing.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Kakmakr on January 15, 2019, 01:53:38 AM

The Bitcoin ETFs can cause a lot of harm, because institutional capital can be used like Bitcoin whales, to manipulate the price. Large amounts of investments into Bitcoin, can be pulled in a matter of hours and this can cause panic and larger dumps as we were used to.

i think bakkt and similar markets could be much more harmful than an ETF in that sense. due to the use of omnibus accounts and rehypothecation practices in collateral-based markets (like futures), what often happens is that multiple claims are made to underlying collateral. in today's markets, it's estimated that on average one unit of collateral is being re-used 1.8 times. the effective result is a fractional reserve basis for collateral. this inflates the total supply on the market which should push prices down.

ETF accounting should be more straightforward: a trustee issues shares at 1:1 against bitcoins deposited into the trust. shares should be more reliably backed.

Kakmakr

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The Bitcoin ETFs can cause a lot of harm, because institutional capital can be used like Bitcoin whales, to manipulate the price. Large amounts of investments into Bitcoin, can be pulled in a matter of hours and this can cause panic and larger dumps as we were used to.

The Halving has never been the trigger for previous Bull runs, so just get that out of your mind. Most speculators make a big thing of the Halving in the two or three weeks building up to the Halving and they make some good profits and then everything just goes back to normal, when they sold their coins for a profit. Roll Eyes

r1s2g3

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I tried to understand bakkt and I got feeling all those who are advocating bakkt or ETF, does not understand them or them have very hidden motive behind it. I can cause one time spike in the price but in the end it will be harmful to the bitcoin economy.

My understanding is these all are tools to regulate bitcoin/cryptos.

BlockGroup

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Adoption is key, even if Bakt and Eft happen tomorrow it doesnt mean anything until people make blockchain a daily feature in their lives in some aspect. Not everyone mind you, but it does need to begin somewhere.

acheampong64

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I also think so. I believe that we have all gotten over the ETF and Bakkt case already and we're looking for new developments that may push price further and that'll be the halving. I think the former will just be a booster but the latter may be the main reason for a bull run.

NavI_027

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Quote from: odukoyaewatomi27 on January 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

I have seen several posts about how ETF and Bakkt could make the crypto market bullish again. As much as I really want the ETF and Bakkt, I really don't believe they will moon cryptocurrency. They will definitely cause the market to be bullish but they won't make cryptos to moon to a new all time high.

Indeed. These two things will surely help to relieve market but not to the point that a new ATH will happen or even equalizing it. But who knows? Maybe this is the stepping stone for attracting more investors that sooner will lead to mass adoption — the more the adopters, the higher the demand which also means the increase in price at the same time.

Honestly, I'm already contented if btc at least reach half of its ATH this year. My holdings can now generate a decent profit from it (but still hoping for more Cheesy

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squatter

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Quote from: odukoyaewatomi27 on January 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

I have seen several posts about how ETF and Bakkt could make the crypto market bullish again. As much as I really want the ETF and Bakkt, I really don't believe they will moon cryptocurrency. They will definitely cause the market to be bullish but they won't make cryptos to moon to a new all time high.
What I believe will moon cryptocurrency is the next coming Bitcoin halving.
Looking at the past history and chart of the crypto market, there have only been two halving in history (2012 and 2016) and both resulted in a powerful bullish trend which took coins to a new all time high. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for mid 2020, and it will have a powerful bullish trend on the crypto market.

If we consider this logically, it wasn't really the halvings that caused bullish trends. The Bitcoin supply is inflationary -- each halving merely reduces the amount of inflation added to the market. For the price to actually rise, we need constantly growing demand. A halving might factor into someone's decision to buy, but there are a multitude of other reasons that people buy -- for cross-border or censorship-resistant payments, to avoid the banking system/retain privacy, because of the growing network size/utility (Metcalfe's Law), general speculative investment or altcoin investment, to use as currency or in the Lightning Network, etc.

Whether it's an ETF or Bakkt or the halving, people are always trying to rationalize why other people are buying or selling. The truth is, we have no idea why people buy or sell. Everyone has their own reasons. The halving is somewhere down on the list, but it's not that important.

HODL2090

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Quote from: odukoyaewatomi27 on January 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

Looking at the past history and chart of the crypto market, there have only been two halving in history (2012 and 2016) and both resulted in a powerful bullish trend which took coins to a new all time high. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for mid 2020, and it will have a powerful bullish trend on the crypto market.

2016 did not experience and all time high, not until 2017 did the market surpass the value it reached in 2013, and moved higher to set a new all time high.
Bitcoin needs more adoption and more circulation, this could be brought by ETF and bakkt. It may not have an instant effect on the price, but would be a catalyst for future growth.

Adriano2010

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I hope that ETF and Bakkt will bring bitcoin again at 10,000$ level price and will maintain there for a long time. Until 2020 is so long time and i think we need a grow much faster for people who invest and wait for a profit, but even so most of people will wait long time for a grow.

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Quote from: odukoyaewatomi27 on January 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM

I have seen several posts about how ETF and Bakkt could make the crypto market bullish again. As much as I really want the ETF and Bakkt, I really don't believe they will moon cryptocurrency.

ETF and Bakkt can have short-term effect or can start a bullish trend. Right now Bitcoin is oversold and and the market may need just a small "bump" to go towards a new ATH. Although I am not much of a fan of bubbles, this has a good chance to happen.
Until the halving there may be even one more cycle (pump + dump), it's too far for now.

r1s2g3

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I will definitely like to comment on ETF. My reading on ETF always point that ETF might kill BTC.
Read this whole topic Bitcoin ETF, Is it really needed?. You have no idea how much negative effect of ETF can have in bitcoin economy.

Pmalek

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There is a site showing a countdown for the next scheduled block reward halving which can be seen here:
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
504 days remaining. It is scheduled at 25 May 2020 09:05:48

Coyster

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Quote from: elda34b on January 06, 2019, 12:47:47 AM

. On the other hand, ETF and Bakkt, etc, increase the demand

We're yet to see if it actually will,i for one am not so optimistic on the effect of ETF and Bakkt, at least for the regulations it'll definitely come with, most people believe they both will herald a bullish trend for the network by attracting more investors,we just have to wait and see how sought after the bitcoin will be after its introduction
The halving itself is still a long way coming,and if we're to go by all last year predictions,we ought to have learnt that we shouldn't prophesy till its time for implementation, as the system is unpredictable

elda34b

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Halving will reduce the supply, therefor increase the perception of scarcity of Bitcoin to the market. Which is why price can increase dramatically before halving begin. On the other hand, ETF and Bakkt, etc, increase the demand. Therefore both of them can create a dramatic increase to the price because they increase demand but the supply got reduced. Therefore, we go to the moon. But of course this is just assumption, and we'll see how it turns after the real deal happens.

pooya87

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technically speaking something like Bakkt or even ETF has a better logical chance of increasing the price because in their own ways they are affecting the adoption (increasing demand) and that is the main reason for the rise.
in comparison halving doesn't do anything to adoption (aka demand) all it does is that it slows down the production speed (reduces speed of creation of new supply and NOT reducing the supply itself) so it shouldn't have any major effects. if anything the rise should happen AFTER the halving in about 6 months not before it but historically there has always been a big surge before it.

besides considering timing, having is so far away and we have already been a whole year in a downtrend. how much longer a downtrend can continue?!!

jossiel

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We can't be sure that Bakkt can really turn the market into bullish. I agree with your assumption that these two can drive the market into bullish but it is uncertain. You've got me there for thinking that halving can really turn the market into bullish.

Just remember 2016's halving which really drove the price of bitcoin higher and unexpectedly by 2017 we've seen a very bullish turn for the cryptoverse. We have to wait for one more year to witness the next halving.

odukoyaewatomi27

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I have seen several posts about how ETF and Bakkt could make the crypto market bullish again. As much as I really want the ETF and Bakkt, I really don't believe they will moon cryptocurrency. They will definitely cause the market to be bullish but they won't make cryptos to moon to a new all time high.
What I believe will moon cryptocurrency is the next coming Bitcoin halving.
Looking at the past history and chart of the crypto market, there have only been two halving in history (2012 and 2016) and both resulted in a powerful bullish trend which took coins to a new all time high. The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for mid 2020, and it will have a powerful bullish trend on the crypto market.

Topic: ETF and Bakkt will have effect, but BTC halving is the main deal. (Read 285 times)