The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth.
We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded.
Update after summer.
Topic: EVOLUTION of bitcointalk.org 1 year later (Read 321 times)
The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth.
We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded.
Update after summer.
June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number? It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago. :/
bpip.org
The number of DT1 I use are from the Theymos' montly snapshot here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54362943
June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number? It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago. :/
bpip.org
Just putting here one update after 2 months.
June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
People on DT1 and DT2
| _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ |
| MONTH | YEAR | DT1 | DT2 | Δ% DT1 | Δ% DT2 | DT1 EXLUDED |
| February | 2019 | 13 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| March* | 2019 | 68 | 350 | 423,0769231 | 92,30769231 | 0 |
| April* | 2019 | 80 | 350 | 17,64705882 | 0 | 0 |
| May | 2019 | 88 | 371 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| June | 2019 | 111 | 424 | 26,13636364 | 14,28571429 | 11 |
| July | 2019 | 104 | 390 | -6,306306306 | -8,018867925 | 4 |
| August | 2019 | 106 | 445 | 1,923076923 | 14,1025641 | 6 |
| September | 2019 | 103 | 372 | -2,830188679 | -16,40449438 | 3 |
| October | 2019 | 111 | 438 | 7,766990291 | 17,74193548 | 11 |
| November | 2019 | 114 | 457 | 2,702702703 | 4,337899543 | 14 |
| December | 2019 | 124 | 572 | 8,771929825 | 25,16411379 | 24 |
| January | 2020 | 124 | 413 | 0 | -27,7972028 | 24 |
| February | 2020 | 126 | 459 | 1,612903226 | 11,13801453 | 26 |
| March | 2020 | 131 | 465 | 3,968253968 | 1,307189542 | 31 |
| April | 2020 | 130 | 496 | -0,763358779 | 6,666666667 | 30 |
| May | 2020 | 134 | 507 | 3,076923077 | 2,217741935 | 34 |
| June | 2020 | 140 | 418 | 4,47761194 | -17,55424063 | 40 |
| July | 2020 | 128 | 441 | -8,571428571 | 5,502392344 | 28 |
June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.
Try making some forecasts based on this data. Would be interesting to compare looking back sometime down the road. 
CONSIDERATIONS
- It is over 1 year later since the start of the
revolution, I wanna believe that the change is started cause of my thread here: Is the Default trust system still working/active?. Theymos was active on that thread and shortly after the new DT system has started.
Me? I'm still active on the forum a bit less from last year got several problems in Real and now is not a great time.
Anyway, how the situation of the DT is going? Are we too many now? Do we need more restrictions? I think this is my 1st time since the introduction of the new system out the DT1 because is capped to 100.
- And the cause of RNG will determine the big variation of numbers of DT2 and even bigger of DT3-DT4 (no one cares about them anyway )
- The numbers of DT1 and DT2 before the introduction of the new DT system can be found here Is the Default trust system still working/active?
- The updated log of DT1 monthly update can be found here: DT update log
- The updated number of DT2 can be found on this LoyceV post here: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings
- The updated number of DT2 for the months of March 2019 and April 2019 are not tracked so I guessed a probable number around 350
- The Δ% is based on the previous month
- Data has been handwritten so some errors may be possible
People on DT1 and DT2
| _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ | _____________ |
| MONTH | YEAR | DT1 | DT2 | Δ% DT1 | Δ% DT2 | DT1 EXLUDED |
| February | 2019 | 13 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| March* | 2019 | 68 | 350 | 423,1 | 92,3 | 0 |
| April* | 2019 | 80 | 350 | 17,7 | 0 | 0 |
| May | 2019 | 88 | 371 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| June | 2019 | 111 | 424 | 26,1 | 14,3 | 11 |
| July | 2019 | 104 | 390 | -6,3 | -8,0 | 4 |
| August | 2019 | 106 | 445 | 1,9 | 14,1 | 6 |
| September | 2019 | 103 | 372 | -2,8 | -16,5 | 3 |
| October | 2019 | 111 | 438 | 7,7 | 17,7 | 11 |
| November | 2019 | 114 | 457 | 2,7 | 4,3 | 14 |
| December | 2019 | 124 | 572 | 8,8 | 25,2 | 24 |
| January | 2020 | 124 | 413 | 0 | -27,8 | 24 |
| February | 2020 | 126 | 459 | 1,6 | 11,1 | 26 |
| March | 2020 | 131 | 465 | 4,0 | 1,3 | 31 |
| April | 2020 | 130 | 496 | -0,8 | 6,7 | 30 |
| May | 2020 | 134 | 507 | 3,1 | 2,2 | 34 |
Visual
Prediction
We have and AVG Δ% increase of 1.8% in DT1 on the last 10 months where data are in a stable condition and a Δ% of 2.8% in DT2
CONCLUSION Too Long; Didn't Read
According to the model by April 2021 we will have more excluded DT1 by the cap than included on the 100 and around 1000 DT2
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