Evolve's 2015 prediction thread.... Party like it's Nov 2014

evolve

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Quote from: Melbustus on June 01, 2015, 03:34:46 AM

Apparently not long enough to know the 2nd rule of Bitcoin: When a custodian loses or steals your bitcoin, rebuy it immediately before the rocket takes off.

I've been around long enough to know that this is bad advice.

If I had rebought right after the Gox fiasco, I'd have lost an insane amount of money.

However, if I buy back in with profits from the judgement, I'm playing with free money...if I never see a penny from the judgement, I lost a marginal amount of money (less than a month of my stock income).

Rules? There are no rules of bitcoin....just layers of "greater fools"'

Melbustus

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Quote from: evolve on June 01, 2015, 03:16:17 AM

...
But, even taking into consideration if the judgement only provides a partial payout, many of us (former gox clients) will still come out quite a bit ahead...and will be willing to reinvest, at least partially.
...
I've been around here a long time guys....

Apparently not long enough to know the 2nd rule of Bitcoin: When a custodian loses or steals your bitcoin, rebuy it immediately before the rocket takes off. And fully control the keys yourself, this time.

But I get it. I lost of bunch of Bitcoin due to a hack when it was $2-$3, and I didn't insta-rebuy. :/

evolve

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 06:03:23 AM

don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

It's not about coins being released...I imagine that there will be many who (like me) who will take their money in .gov currency.

But, even taking into consideration that the judgement will likely only provide a partial payout, many of us (former gox clients) will still come out quite a bit ahead...and will be willing to reinvest, at least partially.

What you have here is renewed confidence, and the financial backing of true believers who just received "free money", as most of us considered this money permanently lost.

This is the type of trigger that can ignite another bubble, particularly if backed by good press.

I've been around here a long time guys, and I've been both a bear and a bull, but always pragmatic.....this isn't about hype...it's writing on the wall....

NorrisK

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Quote from: crazyearner on May 31, 2015, 04:50:57 PM

Even if gox did pay out most would sell and cause prices to go down or would end up buying other cryptos. Who knows what the future holds if gox pays then am sure will be a lot of happy people getting their coins back.

Why would people directly sell coins they got back from gox? It was basically lost money anyway, so I guess most will keep them for a rainy day.

crazyearner

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Even if gox did pay out most would sell and cause prices to go down or would end up buying other cryptos. Who knows what the future holds if gox pays then am sure will be a lot of happy people getting their coins back.

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1Referee

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Quote from: kwukduck on May 31, 2015, 08:12:14 AM

Gox paying up? Are you completely delusional? Huh

Mark still has his life to live in wealth, he will not be paying back those coins. He will be dumping them along with the other ~500.000 stolen btc. Probably during this summer. (where you claim stability lol..)

This is the first time ever I agree on something you have said. I also think Mark will never pay back a single satoshi.

I sincerely hope he will dump all his coins within a year from now. If he indeed does dump his coins, then we can focus on growing instead of worrying about him dumping once the price reaches new ATH's.

Amph

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 02:24:45 PM

Quote from: Amph on May 31, 2015, 08:04:40 AM

Quote from: 98problems on May 31, 2015, 07:38:16 AM

Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 06:03:23 AM

don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

will block halving actually have an impact on the bitcoin price? why should it? or you mean more people will think that price will grow and they will buy?

the reason is obvious, miners mine less coins(50% less)--->less dumping on the market(if we assume that right now there is a 50% it still mean 900 less coins dumped each day) ---> less sell pressure ----> price increase

the problem is that there has to be new money comming into bitcoin. if this isn't the case then the price will fall back after the halving and we will face the same situation as we have now.

no, not possible, something must change, if it is not the price then it will be the hashrate, it cannot remain the same as now

randy8777

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Quote from: Amph on May 31, 2015, 08:04:40 AM

Quote from: 98problems on May 31, 2015, 07:38:16 AM

Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 06:03:23 AM

don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

will block halving actually have an impact on the bitcoin price? why should it? or you mean more people will think that price will grow and they will buy?

the reason is obvious, miners mine less coins(50% less)--->less dumping on the market(if we assume that right now there is a 50% it still mean 900 less coins dumped each day) ---> less sell pressure ----> price increase

the problem is that there has to be new money comming into bitcoin. if this isn't the case then the price will fall back after the halving and we will face the same situation as we have now.

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: kwukduck on May 31, 2015, 08:12:14 AM

Stop your scam talk already!

Stagnant over summer? Don't be joking, just look at the chart, we are still sliding down and no indication of change!
Gox paying up? Are you completely delusional? Huh

Mark still has his life to live in wealth, he will not be paying back those coins. He will be dumping them along with the other ~500.000 stolen btc. Probably during this summer. (where you claim stability lol..)

The effect of block halving is already calculated into the price, many bitcoin fundamentalists are screaming 'moon' because of that already, nothing will happen and upon that disappointment a lot of people will sell off, triggering another big crash at an even lower point.

It's doesn't matter whats calculated into the price. Boom and burst cycles are based on hype. The price could go to 1K again for all we know it, then crash again, thats what pump and dumps are. Until the blocksize issue isn't totally solved and we are again with a peace of mind looking forward for the future, I don't think we'll see an uptrend. Meanwhile whales are buying all of the cheap ass BTC.

pooya87

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Quote from: evolve on May 31, 2015, 04:47:37 AM

More or less stagnant through the summer...then signs of life in fall, possibly the start of the next bubble by the end of 2015.

If Gox ends up paying out, I think it could have a tremendous effect on the price.

i don't think Gox is going to pay out any time soon even at all.

but i agree with this speculation more than any other. although i think we are going to see more downward trend but slowly. and i think this is going to last at least a couple of months and then somewhere around fall it is going to rise again, probably towards another bobble.

inca

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Quote from: kwukduck on May 31, 2015, 08:12:14 AM

Stop your scam talk already!

Stagnant over summer? Don't be joking, just look at the chart, we are still sliding down and no indication of change!
Gox paying up? Are you completely delusional? Huh

Mark still has his life to live in wealth, he will not be paying back those coins. He will be dumping them along with the other ~500.000 stolen btc. Probably during this summer. (where you claim stability lol..)

The effect of block halving is already calculated into the price, many bitcoin fundamentalists are screaming 'moon' because of that already, nothing will happen and upon that disappointment a lot of people will sell off, triggering another big crash at an even lower point.

Price flat. Kwukduck talking the price down.

Time for another failed thread isn't it?

kwukduck

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Stop your scam talk already!

Stagnant over summer? Don't be joking, just look at the chart, we are still sliding down and no indication of change!
Gox paying up? Are you completely delusional? Huh

Mark still has his life to live in wealth, he will not be paying back those coins. He will be dumping them along with the other ~500.000 stolen btc. Probably during this summer. (where you claim stability lol..)

The effect of block halving is already calculated into the price, many bitcoin fundamentalists are screaming 'moon' because of that already, nothing will happen and upon that disappointment a lot of people will sell off, triggering another big crash at an even lower point.

Amph

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Quote from: 98problems on May 31, 2015, 07:38:16 AM

Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 06:03:23 AM

don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

will block halving actually have an impact on the bitcoin price? why should it? or you mean more people will think that price will grow and they will buy?

the reason is obvious, miners mine less coins(50% less)--->less dumping on the market(if we assume that right now there is a 50% it still mean 900 less coins dumped each day) ---> less sell pressure ----> price increase

98problems

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Quote from: randy8777 on May 31, 2015, 06:03:23 AM

don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

will block halving actually have an impact on the bitcoin price? why should it? or you mean more people will think that price will grow and they will buy?

randy8777

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don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

evolve

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More or less stagnant through the summer...then signs of life in fall, possibly the start of the next bubble by the end of 2015.

If Gox ends up paying out, I think it could have a tremendous effect on the price.

You heard it here first, guys.....here's to another major bubble.......2016 may be a banner year

Topic: Evolve's 2015 prediction thread.... Party like it's Nov 2014 (Read 1263 times)