Topic: Expect The Bear Season. (Read 367 times)

Quite in contrast with other analyses in this industry. Some people are expecting bullish season once we're on the last quarter of the year. Their basis is the calendarwherein the idea of "it will happen again" relies.Eitherways, determining would be a pain on your ass because no one really knows. Whether it goes up or not, and if it is profit you are seeking, surely there are various way to earn from this industry. However, if you are a short term trader, Bitcoin and other huge names of this block won't be the best options I guess. Try looking around.

We don't know how many of these people will choose which option, but everyone assumes the worst, which is a 2 billion USD dump.
This will not happen for numerous reasons like

Some people choosing crypto, even if they're planning to sell later. I'd choose this option because I wouldn't want to rely on the exchange rate of their choice. I'd rather do it myself knowing exactly how much I'll get after the sale. With the volatility we're experiencing right now, waiting a week can mean you'll get 2k USD more for your bitcoin or 2k less, which for me would be a big deal. Usually I don't make 2k in a month.

If the distribution begins next month it will continue at least until the end of the year. This illiquid market can't handle a 2 billion dump in a day, but it can do it if the sale takes place over a period of 3 months.

The Bitcoin market is supposed to be big enough to survive a 2 billion USD selloff.
Even if the Bitcoin price drops to 17K USD, this will be temporary and a bull market will return sooner or later.
No price drop and no bear market can last forever. Experienced crypto traders cannot be stressed by such small price drop. Only the crypto noobs will panic and start screaming about the "Bitcoin Armageddon".
I (like many forum members here) am quite sure that many Mt Gox investors will decide to HODL rather than sell.
OP, what's the point of spreading mindless FUD? I don't mind putting some effort and creating some compelling FUD story about a possible upcoming Bitcoin disaster, but this is simply lazy.
It's 2022 and we are still talking about the Mt Gox liquidation. Really?

I’ve seen this same story pop up at other places and I don’t see this being a huge issue on the price of bitcoin and I certainly don’t see it moving the price of bitcoin down anywhere near the 17,000 mark just based off of this ordeal happening. Sure maybe it could be part of a catalyst taking it down to 17k, but I have a hard time seeing it.

The ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunting us to this day, eh? That Mt. Gox debacle had taken place almost 1 full decade ago. News of clients finally getting back their funds have been published for years. FUDs relating to possible huge dump of Bitcoin the moment those will be received by their owners have been relentless. But until now nobody has been compensated yet. It might actually take another forever for that money to be back to their owners' hands.

For now, let's enjoy the cheap Bitcoin. It is either you wait for that huge dump and cheaper coins and risk being left behind or you hop in the bus right now.

If this is going to be the case, then a bear season will come because there would be a lot of volumes coming towards the market. I hope that you know that anything can happen. Maybe the receivers of those BTC are just going to wait for the price to climb before it all comes crashing down again. I agree that we can just wait and see.

If they have given the customer a choice, it means that they have prepared everything and will follow the customer's request. If people are going to get it back once and get it with bitcoins then most likely we will see another big crash ahead. 137,000BTC is a huge number, although it is still unknown how many people will receive it in one go and how many will not receive it in bitcoin, but this news will certainly affect the market somewhat.

although the bear market is back for the reasons the OP stated. for me it doesn't matter.
if the price goes down then my solution would be to just buy more.

because it has become a harmonization in market prices to go up and down. and of course the BTC that the OP said above will not simultaneously come out. everything will be gradual and it takes time. and people will also be careful when selling so that if they all want to sell, of course there will be someone waiting for the BTC price to go up first. and sales will also be gradual. and that won't make it less of a big influence on the market price. we just have to be prepared with everything. the risk is always there. and everything that goes into bitcoin is ready to take the risk.

Exactly a month ago the news about the MT.Gox distribution was published so far there has been no significant dump, it's just old news that keeps repeating and is given some spices so that market sentiment is disturbed. But in fact there is no big dump that happened, even now the market is strengthening again. MT.Gox is just a grave with a corpse that is already boned and does not have any strength, it's part of the past that must be buried deep. one or two beginners will indeed panic because they don't know the history of Mt. Gox and how the cases have happened.

I think we don't need to recall what happens in the past because this won't resolve the current issue (bear). I'd see no need to panic with the dump for this actually come and then go. MT GOx is just a history of how the market is risky and losses could be possible here, it was not worth remembering. I'd rather be focusing more on the incoming events rather than looking back and this is impossible to happen again.
People had already learned, that was the most important.

Gox has been a really long time issue, and its repayment terms have already been outlined a lot of times. A lot of those will be paid in cash, and IIRC, some of the cash were already at the hands of the trustees. The disbursement is what's taking so long, not the sell-off. It already happened, and if it isn't enough still, I don't think it will be that big to cause such a massive dump.

Nice try for fudding, but try again maybe you'll bait some newbies out there.

I also consider with you that the 137,000 doesn't hold much weight to immediately push the market to an unprepared bear.  Even at that, Mt.Gox would have an appropriate way to roll out the payments, maybe in batches and not at once, however there are other options of withdrawal which includes USDt which I know many will opt for the option.

Op, saying we should expect bear it's not scary tbh, this is because we are already in the bear and are not afraid of the bear anymore, but any type of bear you propose, even if it did happen won't last long .

Nothing new whenever we do have these kind of market sentiments then it would always be falling down into making it as a FUD but well we cant really deny not to presumpt
that the market would really be having that decrease or some sort of dump considering that there's some sell-offs that would happen but whats next? We've been there for how many
times and still standing strong after all the years of existence and people cant really just realize that let these things to happen. Its their coins and its their full rights on what they
should gonna do whether they would be holding more or would be just getting on what they owned and sell it all right away.

Let's do expect and say that all of them dump it all at once. But there are too many folks that are waiting for that dump and shall buy all of those dumped bitcoins.

We came from a bull run and we've seen the market dropped already and we're all saying that we already are in a bear market. So, if you're saying that it's likely that it will be lower than $17k soon. Fine, that's part of the market's attitude of being volatile.

There's really nothing to be afraid of, if you're a short termer, you'll fear it. But for someone who's been in the market, we just let it come and go and let it pass.

The market may witness bear for a few days, but it won't do any permanent damage(as in won't last more than a month). Bitcoin isn't some kid in front of a self-driving Tesla, it won't die. That's for sure lol

There are a few things which I believe will happen for certain like:
->Media spreading FUD with baity titles to generate maximum ad revenue on this news. Will have a negative impact
->Not all Trustees will sell their coins. I am expecting like 20% of the coins to be in the market.
->Whales know economics, they would never "dump" an asset in a short period of time. They would be taking an unnecessary hit by choking demand with their own supply.
->Many will sell for cash and leave for Mexico or some SEA country lol

In conclusion, it will be just another day with red closing candles like a mature woman on her zillionth period.

The media effect of this 137000 BTC is already greater than its value. Even if this money was pumped directly in the market and with the current trading volumes, it will not affect in a way that makes the prices back to levels less than 17 thousand dollars, we had a similar event several months ago when more than one was sold. 100 thousand of Bitcoin sold by Luna, Tesla and others, and therefore, and with the impossible, these 137,000 will be sold directly. We will find that the effect will be very small or supported if the opposite does not happen.

I don't know to what extent this will affect the price of Bitcoin but definitely there will be a bearish shift in the Bitcoin price but going below $17k is what i might not see as feasible as op predicts. And GOX definitely won't pay all claimant at once and each sell off from this claimants to regain their losses will cause possible shift in price but to what extent is what can't be emphatically said

People really have to accept that their shorts have after bitcoin reached a bottom are not going to get filled and they will lose money since the market doesn't show any interest in going down. Exhuming the dead body called MtGox may scare a newbie or two but is not going to affect the market.

and yeah people in this market and in this forum have already tired about Mt.gox and about investors receiving that 137k btc? what if all of those investors will Keep holding ? then what would be the indication?

Market can go upward or downward with this Mt.Gox paying investors but what we already have this August is good  market and now you are here ruining that momentum  lol.
you cannot take those from people like OP , so let them be lol

Is this really necessary
It will be beyond the expection

Here is the official document so that everyone can see,



https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf

So it's either the recipient has choice of lump sum repayment, cash, bitcoin and or bitcoin cash.

Chances are there will be will availing of the lump sump here, and maybe few on crypto as they have suffered enough of waiting for years. And with that said, cash will be the better options, unless they still want to go to and hold their bitcoin and or bitcoin cash in this bear market.

And there is also an assignment, meaning not all claimants will get everything at the same time (cash or crypto). Going to be a slow process for August up to the end of the year or when all payments have been made.

And thanks to this kind of FUD, members are now well aware as to what will go down to this Mt. Gox repayment program if it has an effect on the market to put it below the last lowest low of $17,500.

Yea yea, let's scare people with gox coins once again.

I can find numerous past articles that tried the same thing. In November of last year which was like 10 months ago the articles were pointing to the distribution starting in a few months.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/mt-gox-bitcoin-settlement-payouts-9-billion-dollars-early-2022-2021-11
Maybe it will happen by the end of the year, maybe not.

AFAIK they will be sending people fiat money not bitcoins so they will sell these, but I doubt they will just dump it all on one exchange. That would be foolish and would mean losses for the people who are supposed to be paid back.

This might not sound well but there is a possibility of bitcoin trading Bellow $17k. I see a massive selloff coming.

Still remember  The MT GOX rehabilitation plan made on October 20th 2021? Oh! Let's recall the past.

On 24th February 2014, MT GOX exchange was hacked. The exchange lost about 850,000 BTC which 750,000 Btc belongs to investors while 100 BTC belongs to mt gox. Before the hack in 2014 there was a massive bull run where btc went from $13 in 2013 to $1182 in 2014 with a 9000% profit. In 2016 MT GOX went bankrupt with a total lost of roughly 2.4 trillion worth of btc. This impacted on the market so much bringing btc down to 36%.

Back to the MT GOX rehabilitation plan. MT Gox promised to compensate the investors who lost their funds during the hack with 137,000 BTC This August 2022.

Note: on July 6th, 2022 we heard on news that an email was sent to the investors that lost their funds during mt gox hack giving them option to specify if they would  to receive in BTC , BCH or USTD.

Now, let's go deeper. With 137,000 BTC worth roughly $2.8 billion or let's say $3 billion in the hands of investors, what do you expect they do with it? I see the number of investors that will selloff to regain  what they lost outweighing the few that will decide to still hold. offcurse the sellof won't happen all at once. Considering the principle of the market, if the number of investors that will sellof outweighs those that will HOLD, what do you think will happen to Bitcoin? I will leave you to answer that.

Well, like they said, you can only predict the market but can't be 100% sure of your prediction. Let's watch and see.