I will give you my opinions on gmaxwell points of views. My opinion is backed up with several simulations and successfully lowering the block interval to 5 seconds, and a cryptocurrency (Nimblecoin.org) that works with 5 seconds interval:
(1) Orphaning rate depends on the time relative to communications & validation delay (formula given in the link).
True, but transactions can be and are in practice pre-verified by nodes, so validation delay is zero. Communication time can also decrease considerably using header-only block propagation. Using DECOR+GHOST protocols you remove selfish mining incentive and increase best-chain choice convergence.
The limit where things start to fail is using a block interval of about 2 seconds.
(1a) There have been altcoins who didn't understand this and set their block times to be stupidly low and suffered pretty much instant convergence failure (e.g. liquidcoin).
100% true, but they were not using DECOR+GHOST protocols
(2) The computational/bandwidth/storage cost of running a SPV node .. is almost entirely due to the header rate. Increasing costs for the most cost-sensitive usages is not very attractive.
Half true, because SPV security is terribly weak anyway: it requires trust in peers and most implementations of SPV rely in a single trusted node.
I prefer SmartSPV security, which does not need to download all headers.
But I would also prefer to trust a single US company to send me each block to my smartphone (such as coinbase) than to trust a random Bitcoin node.
Anyway, I suppose that an increase in 5X in the number of headers is completely tolerable to almost any SPV node.
(3) With the exception of 1 confirmation transactions, once you are slow enough that orphaning isn't a major consideration there is no real security difference that depend on the particular rate. For moderate length attacks sum computation matters and how you dice it up doesn't matter much. One confirm security— however— isn't particular secure.
Not really, the most important factor is the number of confirmations, and not the accumulated work. So a DECOR+GHOST alt-coin with 1 minute interval takes 10 times less than Bitcoin to confirm with the same security.
(3a) If there is actually a demand for fast low security evidence of mining effort, you can achieve that simply by having miners publish shares like P2Pool does. You could then look at this data and estimate how much of the network hashrate is attempting to include the transaction you're interested in.
A 4-block confirmation in Nimblecoin.org (about 20 seconds) has a 0.1% reversal probability.
In the current p2pool you would need 1000 shares to achieve the same level of confidence or 8 hours.
A better p2pool could be created where each better-p2pool share must include all the previous share transactions. For this better-p2pool to achieve the same with shares, you would need 4 new-p2pool blocks (about 2 minutes) to have the same guarantee.
But taking into account that p2pool only has a small share of the total hashing power, you cannot expect secure confirmations from p2pool.
(3b) Because mining is a stochastic lottery confirmations can take a rather long time even when the mean is small. Few things which you can describe as "needing" a 2 minute mean would actually still be happy with it taking 5 times that sometimes. Those applications simply need to use other mechanisms than global consensus as their primary mechanism.
With a 5-seconds block epoch, and 4 confirmations, the described bad case (which happens once per week probably) would take less than two minutes. Pretty good for any application to have 2 minutes delay once a week.
(4) While you can debate the fine details of the parameters— perhaps 20 minutes or 5 minutes would have been wiser— because of the above none of the arguments are all that compelling. Changing this parameter would require the consent of all of the surviving Bitcoin users, absent a really compelling argument it simply isn't going to happen.
It's true, but Bitcoin may have to face competition in the future. I think that a really compelling argument will be when other alt-coins achieve 1000 tps and 10 seconds average confirmation and Bitcoin won't. Bitcoin probably cannot go down to 5 seconds but it can surely go down to 30 seconds.
Best regards, Sergio.