Feb 1 FOMC meeting | Bitcointalksearch.org

palle11

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on January 28, 2023, 02:20:01 AM

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But from my personal opinion, it's not actually affect Bitcoin, but it's more affect to stock since each company have debt and rely on financial.

I think you are right. So many people depend on it without actually confirming if the outcome of the meeting have direct impact on bitcoin and like you said, I don't think it has effect on bitcoin. Such outcome can affect stock and fiat but not bitcoin because they are regulated and controlled but bitcoin is not, therefore you can't limit any investment in bitcoin so it fluctuate on itself.

adaseb

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on January 30, 2023, 09:10:21 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on January 28, 2023, 08:24:13 AM

I think this is wrong. On the contrary, increasing the interest rate is one of the most common tools to combat inflation. Increasing the interest rate means reducing the money supply, which means reducing spending, which hopefully means falling down of the prices of goods and services.

Thanks for the input.

Yeah I've read it somewhere in macro economy books on the subject about monetary policy and inflation, it's true increasing the inflation rate will reduce the money supply and reduce spending. But it's only for short term solution, because in the long run retailers will bankrupt and companies will fire their workers, it will cause a huge economy problem and government may likely print new money to donate the jobless or they will protest due to lost trust on the government.

You are correct and this is most likely what might happen.

The rates are causing less people to buy goods and services. So soon businesses will need to lay off some people. Then there will be a recession and how will the fed fix it? By cutting rates and printing money again. And it’ll be a complete repeat.

This is why many are predicting a repeat of 1970s where we got inflation waves and might hit double digit inflation this time around.

Jawhead999

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Quote from: Darker45 on January 28, 2023, 08:24:13 AM

I think this is wrong. On the contrary, increasing the interest rate is one of the most common tools to combat inflation. Increasing the interest rate means reducing the money supply, which means reducing spending, which hopefully means falling down of the prices of goods and services.

Thanks for the input.

Yeah I've read it somewhere in macro economy books on the subject about monetary policy and inflation, it's true increasing the inflation rate will reduce the money supply and reduce spending. But it's only for short term solution, because in the long run retailers will bankrupt and companies will fire their workers, it will cause a huge economy problem and government may likely print new money to donate the jobless or they will protest due to lost trust on the government.

slapper

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Quote from: hugeblack on January 28, 2023, 02:18:12 PM

Quote from: Edwardard on January 28, 2023, 03:27:47 AM

Last time when powell announced he will have to keep hiking rates the entire 2023, btc dropped from 18.3k to 16.3k continuously for the next few days.

Does Bitcoin need a reason to move within the range of a thousand dollars to two thousand dollars a day, especially when you are talking within a short support/resistance range, as the price of 18.3k to 16.3k represents the top and bottom of the aforementioned narrow resistance range.
What I'm trying to say is that people try to connect these things, but they're really not related at all.
It is true that we are in a world where the change in the price of the dollar affects the entire market, but not with the amount of fear that people are looking for or doing their analysis.

Certainly, you're correct that Bitcoin's price may fluctuate significantly in a short amount of time. Similar to a roller coaster, you have no idea where it will go. And that's perhaps why it has such a wide range of admirers. True, the dollar's strength may affect the cryptocurrency market, but it's not the sole element in determining Bitcoin's worth. World events, news, and investor mood are just a few of the many contributing variables. Therefore, pinpointing a cause for Bitcoin's volatility is challenging. Therefore, I put more stock in technical analysis than in fundamental research. So many news and events to watch. Lets the candles tell their story

adaseb

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Well we know that they will raise rates by 25bps. So that is not a surprise. What is important about the meeting is the clues they give about potential hikes or cuts. There is usually a dot plot which traders look at and they can see how dovish or hawkish the fed is.

Most likely nothing exciting will happen with this meeting. What is more important is the CPI and the unemployment numbers following. We don’t want to see high inflation and lower unemployment because that would be very bearish.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: hugeblack on January 28, 2023, 02:47:16 AM

FOMC has more influence on stocks, currencies of emerging countries and borrowing, but it has less influence on gold and Bitcoin despite all attempts to link them.

The market is now thirsty for any news, and it will cause a domino effect, even if that news does not have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin.

For example, during the past 10 days, the price increased by a large percentage, without any different economic news than before.

The "less influence on Gold, and Bitcoin" either increase or it decreases depending on the situation of the market. Everyone should try to research about Pearson Correlation Coefficients between different cryptocurrencies, then include Gold and Bitcoin. If the value is = 0.50 - 0.75, it's fairly correlated, and if the value is = 0.75 and above, it's definitely closely correlated. It changes from cycle to cycle or cycles within a longer cycle.

My guess would be, its yearly value might be around some points above 0.50 because check the charts of Bitcoin and SPX Index. The peak during 2021, and the valley during 2022 were mere months different.

hugeblack

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Quote from: Edwardard on January 28, 2023, 03:27:47 AM

Last time when powell announced he will have to keep hiking rates the entire 2023, btc dropped from 18.3k to 16.3k continuously for the next few days.

Does Bitcoin need a reason to move within the range of a thousand dollars to two thousand dollars a day, especially when you are talking within a short support/resistance range, as the price of 18.3k to 16.3k represents the top and bottom of the aforementioned narrow resistance range.
What I'm trying to say is that people try to connect these things, but they're really not related at all.
It is true that we are in a world where the change in the price of the dollar affects the entire market, but not with the amount of fear that people are looking for or doing their analysis.

Darker45

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on January 28, 2023, 02:20:01 AM

When the fed interest rate increase, it's become more expensive to borrow money from banks, it will increase inflation too...

I think this is wrong. On the contrary, increasing the interest rate is one of the most common tools to combat inflation. Increasing the interest rate means reducing the money supply, which means reducing spending, which hopefully means falling down of the prices of goods and services.

In the US, for example, the Fed was forced to raise the interest rate 7 times last year alone to try to tame the high inflation rate. They badly needed to lower down inflation that they even had to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points for 4 times. That high of an interest rate hike was never implemented for decades. The inflation rate was too high that the Fed raised the interest rate high enough to face the risk of recession.

cryptocoupons

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It's important to note that while FOMC meetings may influence overall market sentiment, they do not directly control the price of Bitcoin. Additionally, there is no concrete evidence that the FOMC meeting is directly influencing the pump and dump of Bitcoin.

Dickiy

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Quote from: meanwords on January 28, 2023, 12:58:01 AM

What's up with people correlating FOMC meeting this feb 1 with the pump and dump of Bitcoin? I don't know what FOMC meeting do so I'm confused as to why some people see this as a go signal to buy or sell Bitcoin.

Can someone share a light on this?

There are some people who use the FOMC as an indication to determine their price predictions to determine long or short, especially for day traders or scalpers they will always look forward to it, it cannot be denied that there are indeed some influences to the stock market, bonds, crypto and others from the policies issued by TheFed as a confirmation of financial recapitulation and determine the next step of the monetary system.
I think this is a natural thing for short-term investors/traders, but long-term investors rarely look at the FOMC results.

franky1

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there is no macro correlation to fiat troubles impacting bitcoin

there is the sill IDEA of FOMO/PANIC where people look for negative or positive fiat new to then spam every social media they can to try to influence people to get emotional to then pump or dump.. but thats not a real direct impact. its a pumper/dumper ass-hat trying to poke people into doing things,.. using media as the weapon

it never really works as a sustained attack or method of sustaining a certain price point.
its just temporary sideshow drama. not real economics

bitcoins VALUE(dont confuse with market price)
ist at a stable rise of

10k 2021
15k 2022
and slowly rising periodically

the market price spiked in 2021 but was never suppose to sustain up there. the 2021ATH were temporary speculation and were suppose to correct down

the correction(normal economics) was not a "crash due to FIAT woes of worldbanks"
it was just the expected effect of an after effect of a ATH

charting out each halving cycle
2012 halving 2013 ATH 2014-15 LULL period
2016 halving 2017 ATH 2018-19 LULL period
shows bitcoin is at the normal economics, where we are again in a LULL period
2020 halving 2021 ATH 2022-23 LULL period

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

You can get many US Economic scheduled events from Marketwatch

I strongly emphasize that you should skip following news and be strong with what you believe in and simply focus on doing your plans. What's plan ?

It should be Dollar Cost Averaging when Bitcoin already went through a half of its bear market and onwards we're going toward a new big bull run.

buwaytress

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Yeah, and it is not really a direct impact on Bitcoin, but rather the reaction of stock markets there after the decision or the general sentiment of the announcement. If stocks react badly, Bitcoin merely follows. We can expect as people have responded above that any indication of interest going down (or rate of hikes slowing) and stocks should react positively.

Effect is also temporary. Doubt Bitcoin prices maintain the purge or rally resulting from that.

Edwardard

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Quote from: hugeblack on January 28, 2023, 02:47:16 AM

FOMC has more influence on stocks, currencies of emerging countries and borrowing, but it has less influence on gold and Bitcoin despite all attempts to link them.

It does have a lot of impact on btc (atleast for sometime) although not sure about gold.
Last time when powell announced he will have to keep hiking rates the entire 2023, btc dropped from 18.3k to 16.3k continuously for the next few days.
However, the effect goes away with time, but we have to prepare for 1-2k$ volatility on the times of fomc meetings.
Im sure this time too when the fed announces its next decision, we will see either 25k or back to 20k-21k range pretty soon after it.

hugeblack

legendary

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FOMC has more influence on stocks, currencies of emerging countries and borrowing, but it has less influence on gold and Bitcoin despite all attempts to link them.
The market is now thirsty for any news, and it will cause a domino effect, even if that news does not have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin.

For example, during the past 10 days, the price increased by a large percentage, without any different economic news than before.

Jawhead999

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1208

FOMC is a meeting to review and discuss about monetary policy, in the end usually they will create a decision either increase or decrease the fed interest rate, or just let it with the current rate if they need to see more progress.

When the fed interest rate increase, it's become more expensive to borrow money from banks, it will increase inflation too and the whole economy will get impact. The reason why people correlating the fed interest rate increase and Bitcoin price is, they think not many people will invest in Bitcoin because they will have financial problem and only spend the money to buy food.

But from my personal opinion, it's not actually affect Bitcoin, but it's more affect to stock since each company have debt and rely on financial.

meanwords

full member

Activity: 1624

Merit: 163

What's up with people correlating FOMC meeting this feb 1 with the pump and dump of Bitcoin? I don't know what FOMC meeting do so I'm confused as to why some people see this as a go signal to buy or sell Bitcoin.

Can someone share a light on this?

Topic: Feb 1 FOMC meeting (Read 128 times)