FED raises fund rate and Signal possible paused

Halime Anatolia

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

An increase in the FED rate has the potential to affect traders and investors and an increase in interest rates can lead to a decrease in liquidity and increase in borrowing costs, which can hinder economic growth and potentially impact the stock market. My general opinion If the FED continues to raise interest rates too aggressively it could lead to a recession, which is unfavorable for investors or traders so this always gets in the way of one's investment goals and raises doubts especially when making decisions in currencies. crypto money market.

benalexis12

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This act done by the fed is probably too late for them to raise interest and it will be paused for sure. That's why they also avoid the recession from happening. Also, from my point of view, bitcoin has nothing to do with the inflation that is happening now, from what I see and my opinion. And the effect of what the feds did this past day is that we will feel the consequences after 1 or 2 weeks in my opinion. That's where we can see if bitcoin will pump or dump.

BenCodie

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Quote from: Edwardard on May 04, 2023, 11:40:37 PM

Quote from: avikz on May 04, 2023, 11:33:42 PM

Now this is supposed to impact bitcoin in a positive way.

I never saw inflation affecting bitcoin in a positive way since 2022. I think believing on btc as a hedge against inflation is only good in theory but practically it wont happen. We only started rising from this year because the fed slowly got their interest rates downwards. If they again start more stronger tightening, do you really think btc will go against spx?

Bitcoin is definitely a hedge against inflation, this is just simple economics. It isn't an unproven theory.
When the supply of one asset grows, the value against another decreases.
For example if the USD monetary supply grows 1%, it is 1% weaker than Bitcoin and therefore the value of Bitcoin theoretically increases by 1%. This change might not instantly reflect on markets however economically, USD has grown weaker and Bitcoin is stronger.

2022 is a poor indicator on whether or not Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. In fact, so is 2020-2021. The reason why I say this is because markets were artificially increased by Luna, FTX and their subsidiaries during 2020-21, and then artificially decreased during 2022 during their collapse.

This among speculation caused by news that effects markets more than economic principles is why the direct impact of inflation can't be see directly on the market of Bitcoin.

If the noise of news, speculation, fiat markets, manipulation and so on were removed from Bitcoin's market, Bitcoin would programmatically increase over time as USD and fiat money inevitably increase their money supply to be able to survive, while Bitcoin's supply inevitably remains the same.

LastKiss

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

~snip~
What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

Reference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/03/fed-rate-hike-powell-banks/

A big chance that Bitcoin will start the pump when the FED starts cutting its interest rate, as for now I think the FED will hold that interest rate at 5.25% since the FED is waiting until the inflation to go lower near around 2-3%. 35k$ won't be impossible to reach next month I think since there are lots of banks already in trouble cause the interest rate keep hiking.

Edwardard

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Quote from: avikz on May 04, 2023, 11:33:42 PM

Now this is supposed to impact bitcoin in a positive way.

I never saw inflation affecting bitcoin in a positive way since 2022. I think believing on btc as a hedge against inflation is only good in theory but practically it wont happen. We only started rising from this year because the fed slowly got their interest rates downwards. If they again start more stronger tightening, do you really think btc will go against spx?

avikz

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I am leaving the speculation part aside because no one knows what's gonna happen. But inflation is a real issue here. FED is doing what they can do by rising interest rate. The basic math behind interest rate increases is to suck out extra money from economy so that people don't spend much to bring the demand down.

Now this is supposed to impact bitcoin in a positive way. Because with inflation, the purchasing power of the currency goes down. We still have time to follow Robert Kiyosaki. Invest in crypto and in God's money to safeguard your self from upcoming recession.

BenCodie

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My theory is that there is not enough supply for adversaries to cause another dump efficiently, though there is enough supply to cap the price. Until confidence in Bitcoin is lost due to some unexpected news or another smear campaign, I think that we can expect to stay quite steady while BTC changes hands from those trying to cap the price, to those who are accumulating it.

Until there is another banking disaster (in the grand scheme of things, imminent) then I doubt there is much reason for Bitcoin to continue to exceed the 100% gain that it has already posted this year. At the same time, there is not much reason for it to go further down either, other than the already-known quarterly Silk road sell-offs which will not have as much price impact as what most would expect (due to increased demand from weakening USD)

Poker Player

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

And of course what the FED is still avoiding here is that if the interest rate increases too much, it will end up in a Recession which they also don't want to happen. Because the FED has only two enemies here, INFLATION, that's why it raises the interest rate, but as they continue to rise, the banks are put in trouble. And their latest here is the FRC (First Republic was rescued by the FDIC and JP Morgan.

To begin with, inflation in this case is not only due to money printing. If the US was producing more oil instead of having to beg for it from dictatorships it would have less inflation.

The fact that it is raising interest rates is not all bad, since it is partly offsetting the excesses of its monetary policy of the last few decades, which has consisted of printing and printing. The problem is that this leads to a catch-22 situation, because if it continues to raise rates it will lead to situations such as the bankruptcy of banks (which have given long-term loans at very low interest rates and are now borrowing at higher interest rates), as well as slowing economic growth or even leading to decline.

In the end, the way the system is set up, I think they will have no choice but to continue printing as they have already done by providing liquidity despite the rate hikes. The system is set up this way and leads to a continuous devaluation of the dollar.

Iranus

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Many speculate that the Fed will stop raising rates in June, and that is almost certain because interest rates have reached their original target. But what I am more interested in is how long will they maintain this high interest rate? Because if interest rates stay at a high level for a long time, the consequences will be worse than rising quickly and then falling swiftly.
Regarding the current banking issue, I do not see the Fed worried, just as in the last statement, they still think the banking industry is fine. But we can also see bank stocks plunging like memecoin projects in the market Cheesy

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Edwardard

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

That was just too much volatility you were expecting for.

Today's unemployment data and nonfarm payrolls followed by CPI and PPI data in the upcoming days will decided the next fate of Powell and the FED. And seeing the banks taking another dump in the last few days, I think the data will be good for bitcoin overall. More Greener days, hopefully

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

Although Jerome Fowel has not said that they will pause the rate hike, the expectation is that it is possible to pause because it is already in the targeted range.

You should not believe in Powel and FED. Did you remember that they claimed they won't increase interest rate months after the pandemic? Many banks believed in FED promise which was not kept and they fell into troubles that caused their collapses recent months and maybe a bigger problem for the whole bank system.

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So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

The USA. Government and their central bank can print a lot of money that is easy to do but the opposite is more difficult. They will hardly to retrieve the circulating supply they created in inflation time. Such efforts can never be achieved 100% and as we are witnessing, it causes many collapses in bank system and related fields. In addition, it takes a lot of time to cool everything down before returning to normality.

You can see it in history chart of interest rate, unemployment rate, recession too.

Ahli38

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Actually the crisis of the banks in America is still continuing but it turns out that The FED is still raising interest rates by 25 bps. which means America is still concerned with fighting inflation. While this isn't exactly bad news for Bitcoin it is a policy that actually has two opposite effects.

Raising interest rates is indeed effective in fighting inflation. but on the one hand, if it continues, the recession will approach America more quickly.
And currently the crisis of the Bank there is also in an alarming situation. Some bank stock values have plummeted yesterday as for example First Horizon National Bank shares have plunged as much as 44%-50% in Pre-Market trading. followed by the drop in Western Alliance Bank shares by 53% And this is not a good sign for banking in America.

But this has a pretty good impact on Bitcoin and Gold. So that these two assets both continued the pretty good bullish rally.

Husires

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The shock was when the Federal Reserve decided to start raising interest rates and stop previous policies, and from that date all interest-raising decisions have a limited or even positive impact on the markets because they are under expectations.
Therefore, if the increase was not by 25 basis points and it was at a greater rate, we would have seen a correction and vice versa if there was no increase or stability of the current interest as it is.

lionheart78

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So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

Isn't this too bold to claim that Bitcoin will pump to $35k? I do not think that the FED rate hike basis can make a Bitcoin pump like this. So any indicator that this event will happen? I have not read much of news about making the sentiment of Bitcoin goes bullish. Instead, I think Bitcoin sentiment is currently dulled due to the Bitcoin ordinal inscription making the network congested and Bitcoin transaction fee to skyrocket. More or less, I am a bit bearish on the market sentiment. Unless some good news that Bitcoin Ordinal is blocked from using the Bitcoin blockchain is announced Grin

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What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

Inflation had been the problem since time when we aren't born. I think Inflation will contiuously be a problem of the traditiona financial sector. As long as they governments do not shift to a fixed supply currency, inflation will always be around causing problem to the economy.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

First Republic was rescued by the FDIC and JP Morgan.

First Republic Bank customers was rescued not bank. Bank is dead and everyone will pay for it.

Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

i don't think there is any event that can push btc price +20% in 4 hours. Its not 2015 anymore.

Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

And of course what the FED is still avoiding here is that if the interest rate increases too much, it will end up in a Recession which they also don't want to happen. Because the FED has only two enemies here, INFLATION, that's why it raises the interest rate, but as they continue to rise, the banks are put in trouble. And their latest here is the FRC (First Republic was rescued by the FDIC and JP Morgan.

not only two enemies. Market participants that see what is going on also play an important role. And now seems to scream "check" giving many signs of doubt in the power of the FED.

DaveF

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It's not like the rate hike was not known and discussed for days, perhaps weeks now. If the .25 rise had NOT happened I can really see the markets reacting. But this more then likely was already factored into the price of BTC and the stock market and other financial markets as well.

At this point I unless everyone is expecting X and then Y happens I don't see anything the FED or other central banks do causing shock-waves in terms of any market. It's discussed on the internet and TV and just about everywhere else for a long time before it really happens.

-Dave

JayTrain

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I agree that the Fed's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the financial markets, including Bitcoin. However, it's difficult to predict with certainty what will happen to Bitcoin's value in response to the Fed's actions. While some traders may anticipate a price increase, there are always unexpected variables that can influence the market.

As for the broader implications of the Fed's interest rate policy, it's a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and preventing a recession. Ultimately, the goal is to maintain a stable economy that benefits everyone. It will be interesting to see how the Fed continues to navigate these challenges in the coming months and years.

hugeblack

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Quote from: gunhell16 on May 04, 2023, 09:15:19 AM

What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

Reference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/03/fed-rate-hike-powell-banks/

The hypothesis is that the price will move according to the interest or that bitcoin is the only trend of cash flows is not true, the markets have already the price of 25 basis points a basis point during the past month, so it is in my view, the probability of the price raises above 30K is not possible or at least Not sustainable. Real heights may take place after more than a month when the next meeting comes, but all this by assuming that the interest is the basic price controller (which is not a precision).

ImThour

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So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

Quite a speculation however I got your point. I think the price is about to go a little bit down before going up.
The demand seems to be lower as compared to the recent upward movement by the price action on Bitcoin and other crypto.

And yes, it's 4 hours and 10 minutes from this post.
Calendar: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

gunhell16

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So as expected by most, the Federal Reserves have raised interest again by 25 basis points. the FED's targeted range is 5%- 5.25% And since traders are already expecting this, it didn't have much of an impact on Bitcoin. And it's still playing 28k-29k$ up a level.

Although Jerome Fowel has not said that they will pause the rate hike, the expectation is that it is possible to pause because it is already in the targeted range.

And of course what the FED is still avoiding here is that if the interest rate increases too much, it will end up in a Recession which they also don't want to happen. Because the FED has only two enemies here, INFLATION, that's why it raises the interest rate, but as they continue to rise, the banks are put in trouble. And their latest here is the FRC (First Republic was rescued by the FDIC and JP Morgan.

So this event a few hours from now I think 4 hours from now it is possible that Bitcoin's value will pump 35k$ or more and suddenly dump up to 25k$ if its minor lower high is not broken.

What do you think will happen? this is a type of event that every 16 years actually has this problem due to inflation. Please also give your opinion on this matter.

Reference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/03/fed-rate-hike-powell-banks/

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