Topic: Federal Reserve Meeting Today! March 20, 2024 (Read 270 times)

Sadly that's true. Even though we have some signs of conflicts coming to an end this year but at the same time we have other signs that are showing more escalation in the near future like the US planning on attacking deeper targets inside Russian soil.
Future is indeed grey...

Many conspiracy theories about oil price drop can be made because they can assign it to a coming USA. President Election. Latest polls show that people there are not happy with economy and in economic policy, they trust Trump more than Harris.

People who is in charge of White House now is Biden and Harris, so it gives opportunity for theories to appear.

It is like a short term cool down while in long term, future is greyish. If wars continue or pop up more, oil price will increase again. Wars are terrible and consequences from war are not only deaths, but many things across the world. Our life quality is affected even we are living in countries that don't directly engage in any war as the world now is flat.

We are getting closer to US elections and all of a sudden we are seeing oil price drop for no apparent reason

But this could be a good news at least in short term. Oil price being around $70 is not the best price but it is good enough to decrease inflation a little bit and it may also lead to some small rate cuts in which case we could also see some bullish action in Bitcoin market as well.
I'd say for now we have some good signals at the very least...

Lets not forget that the election is coming and Biden has been getting more and more desperate every day as his hope of winning again keeps evaporating. He even stopped using US veto power in favor of Zionists and their genocide of Palestinians for the first time in short history of the apartheid regime, just to look good to the population who is protesting against the US regime's support of genocide.

Lobbying FED to reduce interest rates before elections, manipulating markets and even spending some money domestically to "look good" to the public so that he can increase his election chances is a strong possibility that we should include in our speculation...
In other words it wouldn't be surprising to see rates decreased temporarily pre-election and then aggressively increased after it.

Definitely a very positive reaction, BUT announcing three rate cuts and actually doing the rate cuts are two very different things entirely. We should wait then observe what happens after the rate cuts. Because Paul Volcker also cut the rates prematurely during the late 1970s/early 1980s, which forced him to raise them again but more aggressively which caused a recession.

It was the recession that actually curbed inflation though, and it's probably what the current issue needs again.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, getting to used to it already since few years ago. We've got no other view on this one but just a normal day for Bitcoin. But sometimes out of curiosity, what might be the reason with this times plunge. Well, with the institutions that are in you're probably right about these bots and they're not just in the market but also going on with the news.

Not even close, if the current house bubble would burst unlike 2008 a 20% fall in price would find everyone buying as there are millions on the side waiting for a price to buy a house unlike in 2008 when banks encouraged even the ones with the worse credit in history to apply for a mortgage.
2008 was a speculation bubble, 2024 is just prices driven up by constant demand as the money is indeed in the customers' pockets
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/housing-market-why-homes-expensive-chart-inventory


And why would there be a recession just because of high inflation?
Jobs are up, the US ended the year with a new record of over 161 million employed, demand for everything is up, and it's business as usual just that we had a severe price increase, compare this to the 90s and it's peanuts, Argentina's economy shrank by juts 1.4% and they have inflation where it doesn't matter what numbers is made of but how many!


Get used to it, it will happen more and more as prices start to be dictated by bots running on news feed algorithms.

We've seen the effect of the fed meeting afterwards, the price of Bitcoin went up and back to $67k. But this time, what it is all about? Whales cashing out their quick profits and that's why Bitcoin dropped to $62k again?

I just remembered about this sign after reading what you've said that they're everywhere. Maybe another war is waiting to happen just after what happened in Moscow. And the US will be obliged to print more money again if ever something that's beyond my understanding comes again. And when there's more money printing that happens, it reflects to Bitcoin's price positively.

Yes. It is very attached, especially to money and spending from consumers, it seems to be at the level of 5.25%-5.5%, and that may have been said several times by Mr. Jerome Powell, if I'm not mistaken the last 5 times.

All because the cost of living is getting higher as it is now. However, many assumptions have emerged as to whether this is seen as being able to stabilize prices and prevent inflation expectations from becoming increasingly uncontrolled in the future, which will increase pressure on people's purchasing power and become a trigger for inflation again.

China is definitely competing when it comes to exporting products and shipping but if I'm being honest and from what I've seen in what happens inside China as filmed and reported by unbiased Chinese insider reporters, that advantage that they've got over US isn't going to make any difference, that money that they're getting is probably going to go back to recoup their real estate loses in the Mainland, lots of ghost condominiums are being destroyed because no one can afford them anymore and a lot of them that have tenants in it are on the verge of collapse with the use of tofu dreg as a foundation for those buildings just to cut corners in their budget and they can pocket even more, the real estate company that's controlled by China, last I've heard is looking for a bail out because they're the ones that lost a in the recently demolished real estate properties.

Well it’s like 2008 all over again. The warning signs are everywhere but the stock market keeps printing new highs and eventually it will crack and there will be chaos. But nobody knows when. Could be months or another year or so.

But the government spending is out of control and doesn’t help with these high interest rates. Surprisingly the gdp is strong so we are a long ways away from an actual recession.

Most likely there will be some cuts this year.

This is one of those topics that just screams : Reality check!

The dollar is dead, the west is in a recession, 1BTC=1BTC but just one FED meeting and everyone is curious about what will the US do, what will be the impact what is going on, what will happen! I've never seen a topic about China's interest rate, about India or Rusia monetary policy, about what Iran or South Africa's CB are doing and nobody gives a damn even if they do one thing.
But the FED has a meeting and every trader is waiting with a carrot 20 inches deep thinking what happened to the banana that got stuck there when the inflation numbers were released!

Month after month after month, some are still denying that there is only one force that can drive the markets this much both ways! But , yeah, let's keep denying it!  

Pretty expected call in the end. Also don't think there'll be three cuts, but even if so, likely next decision will be one right after halving. They will all be .25 cuts, still quite a pretty return for a lot of people to hold dollars, really. Especially when it just keeps on posting ATHs vs many second and third-tier currencies.

Don't hold your breath for bad news this year. It's all going to bunch up for the US post election.

As I previously expected, there has been no change in the interest rate hike policy, and we may not even see a hike in Q2 of this year, which means that the possibility of seeing 3 rate cuts during this year that were announced is questionable.
Interest will be higher than 4% during this year unless a new variable occurs, and therefore there will be no real change in the policies of most traders or investors.

Well he has announced at least three rate cuts this year. Hence the positive reaction on the global stock markets today. Cryptos are also on the rise as there is hope that the printing press will soon start up again. I'm not sure if the three rate cuts are really coming, as inflation is more stable than expected and the economy in the US is also doing very well.

Everything these days is affecting Europe more than it affects US. That is how US survives and reduces its exposure to all the crisis the world experienced over the past two years.... by sacrificing Europe...

In any case that was an interesting point regarding Shale but still Shale is just one company and the bigger losses are somewhere else for US regime.
For starters, many of the vessels being attacked belong to United States. For example the US Navy is on top of the list. Each unsuccessful attack costs USN tens of millions of dollars in defensive measures, when successful that costs increases even more because not only they've spent $2-$4 million dollar defensive missiles but also have endured the damage like USS Carney will costs millions of dollars to repair.

The bigger loss is in the global competition with China. You see, Armed Forces of Yemen are targeting those who attacked their country not everyone. That means every other vessel continues passing the waters they control without any problems. Here is the live picture of this heavy traffic from marinetraffic.com


These ships include Chinese ones. We already know US is enemy number one of China and in that "competition" China now has a much bigger advantage and is swallowing Europe as everything coming from China remains cheap while the other way around (exports from Europe to China) remain expensive. That also means a much bigger trade deficit with China.

And that's the actual point, the 2007 - 2008 "fuckup" needed to happen for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates and print money aggressively. I believe that's going to happen again because thr Federal Reserve is not in control of the situation, inflation is.


Jerome Powell is traveling in a very risky path if he indeed is going to cute rates three times this year. If in that first rate cut the data shows that inflation is surging more aggressively, what would he do? Paul Volcker did the same mistake, but he corrected it with more aggressive rate hikes that caused the "Volcker Recession" during 1981 - 1982.

The market took it well, the S&P ended the session with a positive 0.9%, which is nothing and is within normal volatility, but the spike occurred when the rates were announced. Bitcoin also did well, going from $62.6K to $67.7K in a few hours after the announcement.

Well we didn’t get a rate cut but they are saying that we will get 3 rate cuts this year which is much less what was said in the previous FOmC.

We did however have higher than expected inflation numbers so we are not surprised that we won’t get more than 3.

Most likely first cut will be in June, then Sept and then December. And they are expecting less cuts in 2025 as previously mentioned.

We're approaching the inflection point where future meetings may start to include messaging about potential rate cuts, as they have to start laying this sort of ground work early. At the very least you'll start to see the amount of votes leaning towards rate cut reductions. Jobs data is starting to look shaky and if they leave it too long it would look bad as they failed to contain the fall out on both sides of the equation. If they don't start cutting in the next few months, you will start to see American's getting squeezed and for all it's independence, these people will get lent on or accept some of the flak from politicians. The good thing is though, is that inflation is dropping which is the trigger point for rate cuts in future.

The disruption of the passage of ships through the Red Sea poses a global trade threat but some economists believe it will affect Europe and Asia more than the US. Most of these ships that use this route are sailing to or from Europe and East Asia.

There is also a report that the US is directly benefiting from these attacks because it has led to high demand for the US-produced shale. Instead of risking the passage through the Red Sea or spending more passing through Africa, oil customers now consider the US shale as a cheaper and safer alternative. This has led to an increase in the demand of the US suppliers. The war might be costing the US a lot but it seems they still have some means to recover these losses. 

The possibility of a rise in interest rates is unlikely, as it may give negative signals since we are at high interest rates and inflation is still not responding to that. Most likely, we will wait until the second or third quarter of the year without a change in interest rates, and then see what can happen.
Energy prices and employment data are still good compared to last year.

For them to start lowering the interest rates there has to be some positive signals regarding inflation. But all we have now is negative signals and negative news so the chances of an interest cut should be 0%. For example in the seas US regime is losing as their support of genocide continues, consequently that conflict has led to cost of import/export skyrocketing that will directly and indirectly affect price of everything meaning higher inflation.

Things are definitely getting complicated for the FED, on one hand they want to battle inflation but on the other hand they are causing recession!

The two choices are either accepting inflation rising faster or will increase interest rates more to try to keep its increase minimal. In the second scenario we may see bitcoin's rally slow down or ever stop and reverse while in the first scenario the higher inflation could help the ongoing rally get much stronger.

Interesting, that would be bullish for Bitcoin & other risk-on assets. I think rates will stay the same but hopefully you’re right.

I think he will cut by .25%

Everyone seems sure he will stay frozen.

If you look back at the 2007-2008 fuckup. That is what they did stay frozen 3 adjustment in row frozen and they crashed it all.

So my guess is he shakes things up and cuts a bit.

It will be like nothing changed, but legacy markets may react negatively on what kind of policies Jerome Powell might suggest for the next quarters of the year. Although, he will probably not say anything. The Federal Reserve will use their "data-dependent" excuse again.


Inflation is sticky. If he cuts rates three times this year, inflation will come back, then what will he do? Raise rates again, and probably more than 5.5%.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The 5.5% interest rate has been in place since July last year as the government keeps on fighting inflation. This has made borrowing expansive and reduced spending. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates might be cut three times this year he didn't give any timeline for this decision. The majority of economists or analysts predict that the Fed will maintain the same interest rate. Maybe the cut will start from June and this could affect the price of Bitcoin positively.

I’m unsure how the markets will react to the expected news that rates are kept at 5.5%

I agree that he will not cut rates yet, rumours are that May is the earliest it would happen. I still think we are in a precarious position, the threat of recession is not yet over.

The year has seen inflation numbers have a slight surge, showing that inflation is indeed "sticky". What will Jerome Powell do? Rate cuts are absolutely out of the question. Will Powell increase interest-rates again to curb inflation? I believe not today, but let's listen to his speech and see what he has in mind for 2024.

I'm confident that he'll say "maintain interest-rates at 5.5% until new data suggests a change", and "most probably it's higher for longer".