FACT: Several other manufacturers and BFL have been producing mining equipment starting last year and early this year.
FACT: BFL had significant delays, and a 4x difference in projected and actual power utilization, even after shipping started it remained slow for some time.
FACT: BFL started taking preorders back in July, some folks have been waiting on them since then, impatiently
FACT: BFL stated initially that they would be shipping October, and at some point updated that to October/November.
FACT: Late on 10/29/2012 BFL updated their shipping outlook to the very end of November, most likely the first week of December for first shipments.
(added 10/30/2012) (
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/251-More-Jalapeno-Pictures-amp-Shipping-Update)
FACT: BFL updated their unit to be more competitive, and has blamed some of their challenges on this
FACT: BFL is has experienced some sourcing issues on the heat sinks for the SC Singles, but the issues are believed resolved
(added 10/30/2012)FACT: BFL expects the final revision of the ASIC chips in hand in about 25 days (est. 11/26/2012)
(added 10/30/2012)FACT: BFL has stated they will perform assembly and ship about a week after once the chips come in (this implies that they are doing final assembly of chips to boards in-house, but does not confirm it)
(added 10/30/2012)FACT: BFL is having sourcing issues for the VFD displays for the minirigs which requires changes to display and case, but have stated that it will not "affect the timeline in any material fashion" and Josh seems oddly smug about something...
(added 10/30/2012)FACT: BFL has not yet made any statements that shipping would not begin before the end of November. They have told BitCoin Magazine that they would be shipping late in November, but they have never said they would start in December. (outdated on 10/30/2012)
FACT: BFL has stated an intention to ship all pre-orders through September "by the end of the year" (IIRC, not sure about when they made the statement, thought it was early October)
FACT: BFL has invested in (new/upgraded) board level fabrication and assembly tools for use in batches after the first one
FACT: BFL has Millions of dollars in preorders, outside investors watching them, and huge community pressure to deliver on time and in spec
Supposition: BFL is very motivated to succeed, are not likely to take off with the money, and will in fact deliver a product, within their October/November timeframe, or tell us that they are missing it. Until we hear that they are shipping or delayed we get to wait.
Some folks are not so good at waiting, so if you notice someone saying in the 35th thread that BFL is a scam and are stealing all the money, just hit the little link under their name that says "ignore" and get on with it. If something bad enough to really get concerned about happens, you will see reputable posters talking about it quickly enough.
(If anyone sees errors above or has updated information, please let me know and I'll update the post.)
I've updated the fact-list above, please let me know if you have factual disputes with any of the fact items, or want to expound on the suppositions.
This list was originally created as troll repellent, feel free to put it to good use, just be careful to label your facts and suppositions accordingly.
Partial Confirmation: BFL_Josh has made an official statement on shipping expectations, delaying the ship date, but they did communicate it in advance and not just let it slip. Several additional details revealed.
Supposition:BFL is still very motivated to succeed, are not likely to take off with the money, and will in fact deliver a product, within their early December timeframe, or tell us that (within 2 weeks) that they are missing it. Until we hear that they are shipping or delayed we get to wait.
Some additional things that are semi-confirmed:
Supposition: BFL is using the smallest process of any Bitcoin ASIC manufacturer this generation, many are pegging 65nm as the likely process node.
Supposition: BFL Believes that they will still be selling a competitive product well into next year
On a lighter note:
But will it still heat my coffee
The new flat surface is best used for making grilled cheese instead of warming coffee.
Pop Tarts!