Topic: Financial Crisis and Safe Havens (Read 849 times)

Nothing is safe and nothing is totally risky. A good approach is to use the mind and take responsible measures to get good results in trade
or whatever the financial thing one is involved.

investing and trading on your own is the best option in my opinion ,, because from there you can start reading the market and will begin to understand the price movement rather than rely on others .. kija find a little confusion you can ask the people who understand .. because all the disina Your confusion can be answered quickly ..

Before I say anything I'd like to point out that you're in college so you've got time on your side. . . which is to say if you blow it up you have plenty of time to make it back.   Also, kudos on having 500-1k per month to invest.  Most college kids I meet can't even afford a burrito at the end of the month.

Onto your questions:

Before I start, this is not investment advice and should not be construed as such.  Any purchases you make are on you as are any profits or losses.  

Gold is a good asset but you have to be careful purchasing it.  Physical metals are unregulated and often sell for ridiculous premiums (read 50%+).  The worst I know is a site that marks up their metals 400% and through some shifty marketing gets away with it.  If you go physica0,l stick to bullion and don't pay more than 3% over spot.  If you're in the US and need help with this let me know.  If you're outside the US just remember,  no more than 3% over spot.  Ever.

Real estate-  yeah, that's a tough one.  Aside from the necessary capital you'll need to know what to look for and where.  I know people in real estate and it's a heckuva learning curve from what I've seen.

Equities- well an old school trader one said to me "The stock market was designed to create wealth and the forex market was designed to take it back"  Obviously I mention this for the first part.  Having the right stocks is essential.   If you know how to pick stocks, cool.  If not, I'd ask for help.

Crypto-  not sure I'd call it a safe haven asset yet, although it has a similar function to gold and is easier to use when transacting business than the barbarous relic. I love crypto, but I still don't recommend anyone put in any amount they don't want to lose.   It's probably the highest risk of everything on your list.  That being said, it's your money so it's your decision.

Regardless of what you do I'd stress test the portfolio. (EDIT: If you need help with this too, I can probably run one for you)

Let me know if I can be of further assistance.  

There is no general strategy especially in the business of investment. Your safe haven investments can be another person's hell fire investments. Apply your own strategy if you have done your mathematical calculations very well. Remember to apply the diversification theory in your decision.
That will reduce your risk level during crisis. Thanks

A foundation is built on strong materials, not on materials that you hope are strong or that are promised to be strong, it is your future that will collapse if it all goes wrong.

Try to have open view with the bitcoin related platforms, you will be able get into any project or business with the related platform. That will take you to heights and you may become millionaire as well.
If you still work in your day job apart from bitcoin related services means invest some fund and purchase bitcoins as much you can. I am sure that value will reached double the value in some months.

I think most people are like that, I remember that when I was young I did not cared about my health and now that I’m a little bit older I care a lot more about the future and the same it is true with money, in my youth I did not cared about where I spent my money but now I have a very strict budget and I adhere to it since I want to have a better life and I think bitcoin is going to be a key to my future.

True but at the same time why we would want that to happen right now, I do not have a lot of bitcoin, I do not want bitcoin to become that big that fast, if instead it took many years then I will have the time to get a lot of bitcoin before that happens and the amount of money that I will get after that happens will be enough to make a millionaire, so if bitcoin needs many years to reach the market cap of gold that is not something that I mind at all.

No one will ever know when the accident occurred, I think he is very confident that can say 8-10 years. But I know that an accident will happen if it really is a world economic crisis. I may think a little too much, but I also do not know when it will happen. Very difficult if only seen from the speculation over what happened.

First i would like to salute you for being financially aware.  It is great that you are thinking of investing because when i was a college student i only think of clubbing and partying. Anyways as you mention real estate is not yet possible so go put it in cryptocurrency. You may also put it in VUF or bonds although the ROI is small the risk is very little.

As long as you are comfortable with your strategy that is fine, it seems you want to get some profits now, especially since bitcoin is really hot at the moment and it is not giving any signs that is going to calm down, and then you can consolidate your profits by changing the percentages between gold and crypto, that is a nice strategy and one that is very common among brokers, when young people invest with them they recommend them to take make a portfolio with a greater risk and then later in life they make surer and surer investments to preserve the capital they have won.

Investing and expecting an instant returns could frustrate one. Six months interval is ok to start expecting profits from the investment and before this time, you are to continue to build the business either by paying salaries or in the case of cryptos - checking on the exchange and its growth. Basically, immediate expectations of profit is usually a wrong way to go. Investing in promising altcoin is good too.

I'm slowly getting in the investment world as well, but from what I've been reading and seeing, I would say that it looks like a good strategy. It's always good to keep your investments diversed in case something goes wrong, so I would spread investment funds on gold (I don't think the other precious metals are really worth it) and crypto. As for crypto, I would keep most of it in bitcoin, maybe 75 to 85%, and put the rest in some alts, because not all alts are bad. There are some solid ones out there, that should live alongside with BTC. I would then just hold all of these and not trade them.
These are precious assets, I don't think you want to be playing around with them, unless you really know what you are doing.

Also I heard we should see bitcoin ETFs very soon. Once it happens, a lot of money will go into crypto, and hopefully all the bubble fear will go away.

Ok, this is tricky.  Do not invest and count on returns anywhere, they are not a guarantee and not even that easy to predict.  I don't know what the deal is there, but you should probably speak with a financial planner.  Make sure that whatever you do, that you have a serious savings plan and not putting it all out there where it can be lost.  

You are contradicting yourself with nonsensical terms. Yes, the market is indeed volatile, but if we look at how much volatility we have gone through throughout the years, does something pop up that catches your attention? Probably not. It's the fact that regardless of how much volatility we have gone through in all previous years, it didn't had a single bit of effect on the market at all. It allows Bitcoin perfectly to be utilized as store of value/wealth (safe haven asset), and if you think that's not the case, you're delusional. It's not for nothing that Bitcoin has been the best performing asset and investment option for years now, and this will stretch out to the forthcoming years as well.

it is just that bitcoin is young! and infant even.
we can not really expect something this young and small to become as big as something like gold which has been around for a very long time, ever since people were still riding horses around!!
it can not yet be a safe haven, but it is a very profitable investment exactly because of that. the volatility only shows the size of the market, the rise shows the adoption and the non stop rise for years shows the adoption doesn't want to stop any time soon.

It is not easy to predict this and especially a price of bitcoin in coming future. It is very hard to say that what will be the price after some amount of time but be can say that bitcoins price will keep on increasing in coming years by looking at bitcoins past as it had a tremendous growth in its price in very less tome and it is still increasing. Investing in bitcoin is the most profitable method from my point of view as bitcoins price is increasing and if you invest now in bitcoin and hold it for a year or two that you will get at least 50% of your invested amount as a profit and it will be very high at that time, many people have already started to buy bitcoin and hold them until its price ins high. It will be more profitable for you than investing in stakes or shares of some company.

Friend, You are really having a good trading approach with a positive attitude, which lacks in many trader. I will tell you my plan and suggestions, hope that it will help you . Right now markets are in trending mode, so try to set your portfolio in this way . 40% Cryptocurrency, 20% precious metals and commodities, 20% Stocks and Etf's , 10% real estate or any other business model and remaining 10% invest in yourself so that you too get updated on knowledge,experienced,skills and attitude basis. This is how i manage my portfolio and my trading experience too.

saying that a financial crisis happens every ten years is a bit... over zealous from your side. It's impossible to know from now whether there will be a crisis in the next year, just by assuming so, because we had two of them in the past. If there's gonna be a crisis it will be due to BTC and the crypto market, which basically messes up your initial strategy. The Dow and S&P are far safer investments than crypto (they are based on real economic output) crypto markets are purely speculative right now. Even though that's the case, considering the minimal amount you can invest, I'd go all in on crypto - even if you go bust, you have a much better chance to make a descent profit by investing in here. Stock might give you a return of 15% a year (at best), that would be a 150$ return for you.. in one year.. which is.. bad. Investing that money in crypto you have a good chance to have a 300-400% return, and the risk of losing everything justifies that return. Gold won't make you a big return either. My suggestions is to invest everything in cryptoland, and once you've made about 100k on this market, then think about diversifying (buying real estate, stocks, gold). Your capital is simply not enough to diversify in these sectors yet (fees will kill you)

You already got all things figured it out, if you think of a very long term investment then precious metal is the best option, however in this current situation I will suggest you to put more in crypto currencies because the trend and the profit now is really good, maybe you can't get this great profit in the next few years because the situation for crypto currencies is not too stable, some country support and some country rejected it, so you need to gained while there is an opportunity

A safe haven investment is undoubtedly gold/precious metal, coz you looking for safe haven it should be safe. Bitcoin has high volatility, it's good for profitable/long term investment, not for saving investment. However i think your percentage are suited for you, 30:70. you (and me too) are still young, better to make huge money before we get old

Thanks for you input guys. You mentioned some really good points.  


To explain some of my desicions here are some of my view points:

1. Yes, I fully agree. The Dow and indices are looking good right now reaching ATHs. But I like to refer to statistics. One thing is sure whether 1 year or 5 year there will be a crash some time.

2. I guess it's arguable if crypto is a safe haven or not. But I'm the kind of person who belives crypto will go up in a crisis.

3. Good point. I always try to have about 80% in BTC and 20% in Alts.



Well, I like precious metals but I see them as "having money" but not "making money". My investment principle is if you are young take a risk. If you lose money you can earn some again. If you are old don't risk your retirement funts. Therefore I will build a a risky porfolio now and make it saver each year.



I'm totally feeling you  



If it's your dream to own a house go for it! Once I have enough money to buy an apartement I'll rent it though.



Don't get me wrong I still have fiat maybe I should have metioned it.

But precious metals are simply the safest investment of all asset classes. Every fond manager has at least 5% in their portfolio if I'm not wrong. Fiat currencies come and go but gold and silver were always there. But like I already said pricious metals = having money but not making money.

It's simply the last egg in the nest when everything goes wrong. I will try to have at least 3 pay checks in precious metals and at most 15%-20% but most likely 15%.



Totally agree with you if someone could predict the market making money would be easy. Your investment strategy can be as good as you want at the end all you can do is an educated guess. It's a matter of luck.



Maybe I should focus on crypto now and stack up my precious metals over time. Because now it's unlikely that there will be a crisis soon but as years go by the possiblity will be higher.

Please do all by yourself. It is better to understand everything by yourself and do it personally rather than depending on someone else for your investment. No one is going to be worried about your investment else than you.
There are many website services that offers trading tips and recommend you the alts to invest in it, but still it is your money and you should hold yourself responsible for it.

Your strategy is fine, it could be a good idea to add some stocks anyway just in case they do fine for more time than you think but for the most part your strategy seems solid however since you are trying to find a safe haven from the next economic crisis then I think it makes more sense to invest more on precious metals, the percentages that you give seems better suited for someone that is an investor.

The way the financial system is more complicated than just assuming based on past result there is a basis for the future. Before any financial crisis that is to happen, there is always a boom just like the 2008 you made reference to but to the best of my reading, I have not seen any boom to further solidify your argument of any potential crash happening next year. On the issue of diversification, there is need for adequate understanding of the current phenomena rather than relying on historical figures.

It's easy to forget how complicated something can seem to a newcomer if you yourself use it pretty much every day. Crypto fosters a technocracy, in a way.

Good point about not leaving money in the bank. Luckily banks don't go bust as often as the stock market does though. Nonetheless if hyper-inflation occurs not even taking your money off banks will help you. In that case all that is left is indeed an escape into crypto-currencies.

Bitcoin is a safe haven alright for the inflation beaten fiat currencies, but I don't understand what hedging effect you see in precious metal. I think you can simply hold the rest percentage of your fund in USD to cushion drawdown in your crypto holdings.

my goal is real estate first before diversifying into other things. i want to own a house even if it means a small one in some place cheap (but decent neighborhood). and i am already building towards that. although it may be soon for your financial state but keep it in mind.

the i believe that precious metals, specially gold will always shine even in possible financial crisis. people know gold, they can buy it anywhere. they always go to it when they want to invest.

as for bitcoin, i won't go all in, but i don't go small either. it has a lot of potential to grow. it has already given me a lot of profit and will surely continue to do so. and it will only grow bigger as more people become aware of it. it is not like gold that people already know and decide whether or not to invest.

as for altcoins, i don't count on them much. they are too weak for my taste to trust my money in them for long.

Err. You have a point there. I forgot to take into consideration that not a lot of people how to use or even knows anything about bitcoin in general. Pretty much the tech-savvier kinds of people have an advantage in case of catastrophes like this. Survival of the fittest, I guess? I wouldn't leave money in the bank though, when something like a huge inflation occurs.

I am in a similar position as you right now. But I'm probably going to be investing more into crypto rather than precious metals, I believe there is more potential going forward.
Ultimately there will be a financial crash but the question is when it will happen. I don't know how you are so certain that it will happen in 8-10 years. I don't know either but it may be coming our way sooner than expected. After I will be looking to buy some cheap real estate.

It's even easier to pull your money out of the market completely and wait for the dust to settle. Arguably that's one of the reasons why markets starts plummeting, once a bust occurs.

Also I wouldn't be so sure about it being easier to get money into Bitcoin. It's easier once you know how to buy and how to store securely, but I wouldn't say that that's the case for the general populace. Most people still have to learn how to get into Bitcoin. Even then you can just as easily buy bonds or gold ETF shares. Both of which are digital as well. Physical gold isn't that hard to move, unless of course you're trying to invest several 100k, in which case you'd probably just leave it at the bank anyways.

You crypto portfolio shouldn't be over 20%. At least I won't. 70%-90% is just too much in such volatile market, and I am not sure if we can consider cryptos as a "safe haven"  I will prefer to invest at least 50% in precious metals which are far more safe than cryptos. 70% in cryptos you are taking the risk to the extreme as possible. But, of course, you know, usually bigger risk means bigger profits, but when it's about securing your investments it is something else.

They probably go towards less risky investments, but I think it's easier to get your money into bitcoin. They just need to connect their bank account to a decent exchange then they're good to go. Not like going towards precious metals or so. Not to mention bitcoin is digital so they wouldn't need to move physically heavy stuff. Just my 2 satoshis.

I appreciate your efforts and thinking and the way you are investing while you are still a student. In this period of age no one can afford real estate investment because it needs a huge capital. Precious metals is good choice but in my opinion you have to increase the percentage of your investment in it, because metals price are much stable so there is no chance of loss and it also increases gradually.
The most important thing is don't rely on cryptos too much, 70 to 90 percentage is a huge investment, i will never advice you to do so because cryptos are unpredictable and highly volatile, keep it low about 50% of your total funds.

Some thoughts on this:

1) Accurately telling when the next financial crisis will hit is as hard as telling when a stock / crypto has reached a top or bottom. Sure, a lot of people have been waiting for a stock market correction since the last few 2-4 years, then again the markets may very well continue to grow for the next 5-10 years until crisis hits.

2) During times of crisis people tend towards less risky investments. Thus I'm not quite sure whether crypto is a viable safe haven / financial crisis hedge -- yet.

3) Historically BTC has outperformed pretty much every alt out there, keep that in mind when adding alts to your portfolio

Hi guys,
I could really need some external advice on investments and would be happy if you would share your thought.

First let me explain my current sitation. At the moment I'm still a student but I work a lot in addition to my studies. Therefore I have about 500$-1000$ each month to invest.
I'm really a big fan of investing and especially diversification. My dream porfolio would be about 15-20% precious metals, 20-30% Cryptocurrencies, 20% real estate and 30-45% stocks and bonds.


So at the moment I don't have the financial possibilities to afford any real estate cause prices are much too high in my country. Which leaves me with the other 3 asset classes. We also know that statisticly there is a financial crisis ever 8-10 years. Keeping in mind that the last one happened in 2008 there won't be much time left to profit of the stock market (I know the Dow is doing well right know and there are no signs for a crisis).

Considering the stuff I told you by now my strategy is to focus only on "safe haven investments". Which means a portfolio of 10%-30% precious metals and 70%-90% Crypto. Once a financial crisis happens it's time to diversify and buy stocks (mostly ETFs).


Do you think this strategy makes sense or would you recomend me to invest fully diversified right from the beginning?  

Thanks for wour help and opintions