Finland and Sweden join NATO - Putin's plan backfiring

BADecker

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Quote from: paxmao on July 26, 2022, 07:45:14 AM

Quote from: be.open on July 25, 2022, 10:10:34 PM

Quote from: paxmao on July 25, 2022, 05:02:09 PM

BTW, the UK has signed a treaty with Sweden and Finland of regards to defence. RF would be silly to think EU, UK and US will just stay put.

Don't talk about Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a fait accompli. Ratification in the Turkish Parliament could be a difficult quest, given the reluctance of Finland and Sweden to comply with Turkey's demands for the extradition of the Kurds.

Yes, Turkiye's demands... yet here we are with both countries in the path to NATO and Putin deep into the mud of a war that does not seem to have an end and unable to "properly threat" after the disastrous "performance" of the RF army. A CIA agent would not have dreamed of a better scenario and better occasion for these countries to request membership.

Quote from: BADecker on July 25, 2022, 06:03:00 PM

...
NATO acceptance doesn't mean there will be any defensive help coming for some time. It could take a year for NATO activities to actually enter Sweden and Finland.

Cool

It could take a lifetime for Putin to be able to do anything about it.

Putin is denazifying the Ukraine. Trump will win in 2024 and denazify the US, thereby making NATO to be of little significance.

Cool

paxmao

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Quote from: be.open on July 25, 2022, 10:10:34 PM

Quote from: paxmao on July 25, 2022, 05:02:09 PM

BTW, the UK has signed a treaty with Sweden and Finland of regards to defence. RF would be silly to think EU, UK and US will just stay put.

Don't talk about Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a fait accompli. Ratification in the Turkish Parliament could be a difficult quest, given the reluctance of Finland and Sweden to comply with Turkey's demands for the extradition of the Kurds.

Yes, Turkiye's demands... yet here we are with both countries in the path to NATO and Putin deep into the mud of a war that does not seem to have an end and unable to "properly threat" after the disastrous "performance" of the RF army. A CIA agent would not have dreamed of a better scenario and better occasion for these countries to request membership.

Quote from: BADecker on July 25, 2022, 06:03:00 PM

...
NATO acceptance doesn't mean there will be any defensive help coming for some time. It could take a year for NATO activities to actually enter Sweden and Finland.

Cool

It could take a lifetime for Putin to be able to do anything about it.

be.open

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White Russian

Quote from: paxmao on July 25, 2022, 05:02:09 PM

BTW, the UK has signed a treaty with Sweden and Finland of regards to defence. RF would be silly to think EU, UK and US will just stay put.

Don't talk about Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a fait accompli. Ratification in the Turkish Parliament could be a difficult quest, given the reluctance of Finland and Sweden to comply with Turkey's demands for the extradition of the Kurds.

BADecker

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Quote from: paxmao on July 25, 2022, 05:02:09 PM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on July 23, 2022, 06:06:48 PM

Putin has threatened to take action against Finland and Sweden if they were planning to enter NATO, mentioning that there will be serious political and military consequences. Despite the entry to NATO now being official, after signatures were signed, there's a catch;

"The protocol means Helsinki and Stockholm can participate in NATO meetings and have greater access to intelligence but will not be protected by the NATO defence clause - that an attack on one ally is an attack against all - until ratification. That is likely to take up to a year."

Meaning that Sweden and Finland are still susceptible of a possible Russian attack and NATO won't interfere, since the ratification process may take up to a year to be completed. Let me also point out NATO's claims against Russia when the Ukrainian invasion started, but took no direct involvement in the war after Russia's threats. That's what also going to happen if any of these countries are attacked now.

In practice, it is nearly impossible for the RF to open a second front and much less in a year. Those "consequences" would be more credible if the RF army had demonstrated strong military capabilities or at least some degree of efficacy in the field. As of now, the strength of the RF army seems to be based in fighting close to their bases and having a huge arsenal of very old artillery and leftover munitions from the Soviet era. The more advanced weaponry and the air force are notoriously absent from the front (in a degree that would make a difference).

Any "consequence" can pretty much be matched and exceeded in retaliation.

BTW, the UK has signed a treaty with Sweden and Finland of regards to defence. RF would be silly to think EU, UK and US will just stay put.

NATO acceptance doesn't mean there will be any defensive help coming for some time. It could take a year for NATO activities to actually enter Sweden and Finland.

Cool

paxmao

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Do not die for Putin

Quote from: Ultegra134 on July 23, 2022, 06:06:48 PM

Putin has threatened to take action against Finland and Sweden if they were planning to enter NATO, mentioning that there will be serious political and military consequences. Despite the entry to NATO now being official, after signatures were signed, there's a catch;

"The protocol means Helsinki and Stockholm can participate in NATO meetings and have greater access to intelligence but will not be protected by the NATO defence clause - that an attack on one ally is an attack against all - until ratification. That is likely to take up to a year."

Meaning that Sweden and Finland are still susceptible of a possible Russian attack and NATO won't interfere, since the ratification process may take up to a year to be completed. Let me also point out NATO's claims against Russia when the Ukrainian invasion started, but took no direct involvement in the war after Russia's threats. That's what also going to happen if any of these countries are attacked now.

In practice, it is nearly impossible for the RF to open a second front and much less in a year. Those "consequences" would be more credible if the RF army had demonstrated strong military capabilities or at least some degree of efficacy in the field. As of now, the strength of the RF army seems to be based in fighting close to their bases and having a huge arsenal of very old artillery and leftover munitions from the Soviet era. The more advanced weaponry and the air force are notoriously absent from the front (in a degree that would make a difference).

Any "consequence" can pretty much be matched and exceeded in retaliation.

BTW, the UK has signed a treaty with Sweden and Finland of regards to defence. RF would be silly to think EU, UK and US will just stay put.

DrBeer

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Quote from: paxmao on July 23, 2022, 05:32:39 PM

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-sign-protocol-join-nato-still-need-ratification-2022-07-05/

Quote

BRUSSELS, July 5 (Reuters) - NATO's 30 allies signed an accession protocol for Finland and Sweden on Tuesday, allowing them to join the nuclear-armed alliance once parliaments ratify the decision, the most significant expansion of the alliance since the 1990s.

My reading of this is that the Russian Federation has, by invading Ukraine, achieved what many decades of talks could not: creating a thousands of kilometres long border with NATO, particularly near the Karelia Peninsula, where most of the RF nuclear arsenal sits.

If the war in Ukraine was about RF safety, this does not look like a victory.

BTW the signature has been done on-board of a Polish frigate. Quite symbolic.
https://tvpworld.com/61432874/president-duda-signs-sweden-and-finlands-accession-to-nato

The idiocy of the Russian leadership and "concepts" has given rise to many "shots in the knee." Among them is the extremely fast decision on the accession of Sweden and Finland to the WTO. At the same time, if Finland was a vacillating country, then, as you know, Sweden occupied an openly neutral and non-bloc policy! But the "great politician" Putin did something that NATO leaders could not do - in fact, he pushed him out of NATO

Although he moaned and squealed that the THEORETICAL entry of Ukraine into NATO would be a terrible tragedy for Russia. Now NATO will be EVEN CLOSER, and its total power in Europe will increase by many tens of thousands of troops, a huge number of weapons and, of course, a real expansion of the area of NATO countries around the borders of the Russian Federation.
"It's easy to be an idiot - just repeat everything after Putin"

teosanru

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This was obviously coming. And in coming months expect even more countries to join NATO rapidly than ever. Either they will join NATO or show clear support to Russia just like Belarus did. Otherwise surviving in Europe without taking any proper side is going to be a difficult task in coming decades no matter how much diplomacy you try to do, atleast until Putin is in power.

Dunamisx

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One thing am ever thinking about this development is if Russia will still deem feet in taking action against them as well just as it did on Ukraine, what i know is sharing similarities not to be the same as being rule by the other party, everyone has it boundaries and thinks like this needed to be clarified, Russia remains Russia and Ukraine is Ukraine both i wonder why taking a decision has to be a thing of concern of one country over the other, stay your lane and i stay on mine is as simple as that, could Finland and Sweden also face war from Russia for doing this.

Ultegra134

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Putin has threatened to take action against Finland and Sweden if they were planning to enter NATO, mentioning that there will be serious political and military consequences. Despite the entry to NATO now being official, after signatures were signed, there's a catch;

"The protocol means Helsinki and Stockholm can participate in NATO meetings and have greater access to intelligence but will not be protected by the NATO defence clause - that an attack on one ally is an attack against all - until ratification. That is likely to take up to a year."

Meaning that Sweden and Finland are still susceptible of a possible Russian attack and NATO won't interfere, since the ratification process may take up to a year to be completed. Let me also point out NATO's claims against Russia when the Ukrainian invasion started, but took no direct involvement in the war after Russia's threats. That's what also going to happen if any of these countries are attacked now.

paxmao

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Do not die for Putin

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-sign-protocol-join-nato-still-need-ratification-2022-07-05/

Quote

BRUSSELS, July 5 (Reuters) - NATO's 30 allies signed an accession protocol for Finland and Sweden on Tuesday, allowing them to join the nuclear-armed alliance once parliaments ratify the decision, the most significant expansion of the alliance since the 1990s.

My reading of this is that the Russian Federation has, by invading Ukraine, achieved what many decades of talks could not: creating a thousands of kilometres long border with NATO, particularly near the Karelia Peninsula, where most of the RF nuclear arsenal sits.

If the war in Ukraine was about RF safety, this does not look like a victory.

BTW the signature has been done on-board of a Polish frigate. Quite symbolic.
https://tvpworld.com/61432874/president-duda-signs-sweden-and-finlands-accession-to-nato

Topic: Finland and Sweden join NATO - Putin's plan backfiring (Read 98 times)