I see the conflict in Ukraine de-escalating, so a nuclear attack is getting unlikely. Russia also has a no first strike policy in nuclear.
In the case of Russia is still collectively threatened, the first targets would be within Ukraine or probably Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. [1]Even though Poland might sound the fiercer opposer of Russia, they (hopefully) know their limits.
I see more chances of Pakistan, Israel or France using nukes first.
[2]Pakistan is a failing state and if it falls for the Islamic extremist, a nuclear strike could happen against India, Israel or western targets. A strike on India or Israel would initiate a nuclear war. Israel and France too are on demise and failing nations and government can take extreme measures to save themselves.
[1] Poland would be a target because they are fronting for the UK. Russia has a federation mindset while the UK is still overtly colonial. An attack on Poland would feed the less capable Western strategists while increasing support from the global south for Russia.
[2] Pakistan is one of the less globalist countries even if many of their top military are overtly employed by the U.S. An important thing about nukes is that those who respect tribal identities will be slower to fire. The U.S. nuked Japan then tried to terrify other Asian type peoples by nuking the Bikini / Marshall islands and through terror campaigns like Project Chariot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_ChariotPakistan got the bomb through a scientist who offered a simple recipe for an 'islamic bomb' as a more or less defensive thing. Pakistan would hesitate even in the most extreme situation to use nukes.