First Try At Analyzing BTC - Bear Market

cryptocommoner

jr. member

Activity: 112

Merit: 5

Quote from: avikz on March 10, 2018, 11:19:07 AM

Quote from: cryptocommoner on March 09, 2018, 03:29:05 PM

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/X7mVLNpw-Year-of-the-Bear-for-BTC/

Overall, I see BTC continuing down on its downward path. There was a distinct bear flag directly before the abrupt drop. Another one is forming very nicely right now. Can this be the next signal of a big drop???

Please give me any feedback that you have. I am still learning and would welcome any at all.

Bitcoin price trend doesn't really follow the real world stock market technical analysis techniques. So probably after two bear flags, bitcoin price may go up. Stock market is very much regulated and hence there is scope of technical analysis becoming true. But on the other hand, bitcoin market actually shows the free market behaviour and raw reflection of human sentiment which certainly doesn't go along with real world techniques.

That's actually a great point. FUDsters, FOMOers, SHILLers, and whales make all the difference in this market. They certainly got the best of me.

I'd give you sMerit if I had any.

avikz

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1500

Quote from: cryptocommoner on March 09, 2018, 03:29:05 PM

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/X7mVLNpw-Year-of-the-Bear-for-BTC/

Overall, I see BTC continuing down on its downward path. There was a distinct bear flag directly before the abrupt drop. Another one is forming very nicely right now. Can this be the next signal of a big drop???

Please give me any feedback that you have. I am still learning and would welcome any at all.

Bitcoin price trend doesn't really follow the real world stock market technical analysis techniques. So probably after two bear flags, bitcoin price may go up. Stock market is very much regulated and hence there is scope of technical analysis becoming true. But on the other hand, bitcoin market actually shows the free market behaviour and raw reflection of human sentiment which certainly doesn't go along with real world techniques.

DarLim11

newbie

Activity: 151

Merit: 0

I also think that bitcoins trend is a bearish trend. There are just fluctuations of price but overall it is going down.
The price is normalizing again like every bitcoin cycle. When the price reaches new highs the fall will come next.
We just have to be smart so we don't get trapped when the price goes fown and took time to go back.

cryptocommoner

jr. member

Activity: 112

Merit: 5

Quote from: Kronos21 on March 10, 2018, 10:58:51 AM

Quote from: cryptocommoner on March 10, 2018, 10:52:06 AM

What I've learned from all these responses is that it is just not for me haha. I'm going to keep researching though. I'm not trying to make this my job btw... Just a hobby.

Do you want to understand trading signals? I feel sorry for you. Your research is doomed to fail. Such signals no one knows. The bulk of traders use herd instinct. Therefore, every time we see a panic in the market during the fall. It is enough for the whales to subsidize the market by a few percent and they can harvest.

I'm not necessarily going to want to predict how to invest because I believe in Dollar Cost Averaging. I'm more interested in learning how to identify the signals from the past charts. It's clear I'll likely never be able to predict a profitable signal. My first attempt already broke out of the flag I predicted. Although, it has time to consolidate and go back. (Look at me trying to sound like I know what I'm talking about Tongue

)

Kronos21

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 255

Quote from: cryptocommoner on March 10, 2018, 10:52:06 AM

What I've learned from all these responses is that it is just not for me haha. I'm going to keep researching though. I'm not trying to make this my job btw... Just a hobby.

Do you want to understand trading signals? I feel sorry for you. Your research is doomed to fail. Such signals no one knows. The bulk of traders use herd instinct. Therefore, every time we see a panic in the market during the fall. It is enough for the whales to subsidize the market by a few percent and they can harvest.

cryptocommoner

jr. member

Activity: 112

Merit: 5

What I've learned from all these responses is that it is just not for me haha. I'm going to keep researching though. I'm not trying to make this my job btw... Just a hobby.

squatz1

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1285

Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Well if you're going to join the train of advisors, charters, etc. you're going to have to join a tradition where you literally just say the market is going down when it's going down, and then say it's going up when it's going up. Not really much of a job, nor a purpose to this if you ask me.

You should spend your time doing something with a purpose, something that will at least make you some good cash in the long run!

rehydrogenated

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 101

Charting is basically voodoo. The only reason it works so well (on cryptocurrencies currently) is because beginners train their bots to follow chartist trends and make trends based on the charts. When the big banks get their algorithms more firmly into the framework of crypto trading you will see them take advantage of people and bots that trade based on what is essentially a momentum trade. If you can't see the manipulation already, you will soon. Rapid shifts in momentum are to fake out the bots and take advantage.

cryptocommoner

jr. member

Activity: 112

Merit: 5

Quote from: darkangel11 on March 09, 2018, 04:17:33 PM

Those downward facing lines that you've drown look totally random. They don't hit the highs or lows, they don't seem to be showing any channels... Also, what makes you think that it's the year of bear? We've been in bear market for around 2 months! Personally I see a lot of demand and it's simply unable to keep up with the supply of gox coins that are being dumped. It's a bear trend but IMO a short term one, nothing like what happened in 2014/15.

Thank you very much for the thorough feedback!

I had my trend lines from the highs and lows months back matched with the current trend. This is likely not the way to do it. I'm on there and here to learn.

Year of the cryptos is likely a bad headline. I see another month of bear before we take off and ride the bull. March of the bear??

darkangel11

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1360

Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody

Those downward facing lines that you've drown look totally random. They don't hit the highs or lows, they don't seem to be showing any channels... Also, what makes you think that it's the year of bear? We've been in bear market for around 2 months! Personally I see a lot of demand and it's simply unable to keep up with the supply of gox coins that are being dumped. It's a bear trend but IMO a short term one, nothing like what happened in 2014/15.

Anti-Cen

member

Activity: 210

Merit: 26

High fees = low BTC price

Fees killed Bitcoin, word got out about the miners holding a knife to our throats plus people are
waking up to the lightning network being a system of banking hubs.

Dot-Con crash part II and it might even turn out to be a case of tulip mania for all we know but
we do know that bankers rule the roost here

cryptocommoner

jr. member

Activity: 112

Merit: 5

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/X7mVLNpw-Year-of-the-Bear-for-BTC/

Overall, I see BTC continuing down on its downward path. There was a distinct bear flag directly before the abrupt drop. Another one is forming very nicely right now. Can this be the next signal of a big drop???

Please give me any feedback that you have. I am still learning and would welcome any at all.

Topic: First Try At Analyzing BTC - Bear Market (Read 155 times)